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2021-08-13

How will the U.S. infrastructure bill and budget resolution be interpreted in the future?

导读美国8月10日和11日，参议院分别表决通过了1万亿美元基建投资法案和约3.5万亿美元预算决议，本报告将主要探究两个法案后续还将经历哪些流程，以及最终落地的可能性和时点。摘要 1万亿美元基建投资

How will the U.S. infrastructure bill and budget resolution be interpreted in the future?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":894291592,"tweetId":"894291592","gmtCreate":1628826833116,"gmtModify":1676529867510,"author":{"id":3531358130873101,"idStr":"3531358130873101","authorId":3531358130873101,"authorIdStr":"3531358130873101","name":"xiaomilu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>/</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>/</body></html>","text":"/","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894291592","repostId":2159261524,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159261524","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628826034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159261524?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-13 11:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How will the U.S. infrastructure bill and budget resolution be interpreted in the future?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159261524","media":"国君宏观研究","summary":"导读\n美国8月10日和11日，参议院分别表决通过了1万亿美元基建投资法案和约3.5万亿美元预算决议，本报告将主要探究两个法案后续还将经历哪些流程，以及最终落地的可能性和时点。\n摘要\n1万亿美元基建投资","content":"introductionOn August 10th and 11th, the Senate of the United States voted to pass the US $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill and the approximately US $3.5 trillion budget resolution respectively. This report will mainly explore what processes the two bills will go through in the future, as well as their final implementation. Possibility and timing.SUMMARYThe $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill is mainly inherited from Biden's previous $2.3 trillion \"American Jobs Plan\"，However, compared with the original version of the \"American Employment Plan\", this infrastructure investment bill eliminates the \"humanistic care\" part and only retains the content of traditional infrastructure investment, while the scale has also been reduced to varying degrees. From an industry perspective, it will benefit industries such as infrastructure, new energy vehicles, electric power, and environmental protection.The main purpose of the Democratic Party's $350 million budget resolution in the Senate this time is to activate the Budget reconciliation mechanism, so that a larger spending bill supported by the Democratic Party can be passed by a simple majority in the Senate.From an industry perspective, the $3.5 trillion budget coordination bill will benefit new energy, electric power, environmental protection, healthcare and other industries.The above two bills were finally voted by both houses until late September at the earliest. However, considering the opening of the new fiscal year in early October and the time consumption of issues such as the debt ceiling between the two parties,We expect that the two bills may not be finally implemented until later in the fourth quarter.The passage of the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill still faces great difficulties, and there is a high probability that it will continue to be revised in the game between the two parties and the game between various factions within the party:(1) Almost all members of the Republican Party oppose the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill; (2) There are differences within the Democratic Party; (3) Some contents unrelated to the budget may be eliminated.The $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is linked to the $3.5 trillion spending bill, but there is a possibility of decoupling in the future, so it is more likely to be voted by the House of Representatives。 House Speaker Pelosi had previously said under pressure from radicals in the Democratic Party that the House of Representatives would not be allowed to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan until the Senate passed the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill. However, due to the difficulty and long time for the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill to be passed in the Senate, we believe that there is a possibility of decoupling the two bills in the future, and the US $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is more likely to be passed by the House of Representatives.text1. Main contents of infrastructure bill and budget resolutionThe $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill is mainly inherited from Biden's previous $2.3 trillion \"American Jobs Plan\", but compared with the original version of the \"American Jobs Plan\", this infrastructure investment bill eliminates the \"humanistic care\" part and only retains the content of traditional infrastructure investment, while the scale has also been reduced to varying degrees. About US $550 billion in the infrastructure investment bill passed this time is new infrastructure investment, of which about US $300 billion is invested in transportation-related infrastructure such as roads, bridges, passenger and freight railways, and US $250 billion is invested in water conservancy, broadband, electricity, etc. Other infrastructure facilities. If these measures finally become law, the construction of roads, bridges, water conservancy and other projects will be started in the next five years, and other projects will be started in the next 10 years.From an industry perspective, it will benefit industries such as infrastructure, new energy vehicles, electric power, and environmental protection.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fcaecfd2510a06dcaae97f5977740b\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The main purpose of the Democratic Party's $350 million budget resolution in the Senate is to activate the Budget reconciliation mechanism, so that a larger spending bill supported by the Democratic Party can be passed by a simple majority in the Senate。 The US $3.5 trillion budget plan is mainly inherited from the US $2.3 trillion \"American Jobs Plan\" and the US $1.8 trillion \"American Family Plan\" previously proposed by Biden, and excludes the above-mentioned US $550 billion in new infrastructure investment. For the existing traditional infrastructure part in the plan, the budget plan is mainly divided into four parts: family, climate, healthcare, infrastructure and work. The budget plan also stipulates that the Committee will submit it to the Senate no later than September 15Budget reconciliation bill, for the Senate to consider and vote. However, this budget plan does not include raising or extending the debt ceiling, and the bill to raise or extend the debt ceiling still needs to be voted by the Senate (we expect the two parties to reach an agreement on the bill by the end of September).From an industry perspective, it will benefit new energy, electric power, environmental protection, healthcare and other industries。2. The follow-up process and possible time nodes of the billThe above two bills were finally voted by both houses until late September at the earliest. The above-mentioned US $1 trillion infrastructure investment plan and approximately US $3.5 trillion budget resolution passed by the Senate will be sent to the House of Representatives for voting. At present, the House of Representatives will not end its adjournment until September 20, and the Senate is also expected to adjourn until September. mid-month. However, House Majority Leader Hoyer has previously said that if the Senate passes the budget resolution, the House of Representatives will resume work on August 23rd to consider the resolution, so there is also the possibility that the House of Representatives will end its vacation early to vote on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution. If the resolution is reviewed and passed by the House of Representatives, the Senate can pass a larger spending bill supported by the Democratic Party (such as this $3.5 trillion spending plan) by a simple majority through the Budget reconciliation mechanism (Budget reconciliation). Combined with the opening of the new fiscal year in early October and the time occupation of issues such as the debt ceiling between the two parties, we expect that the two bills may not be finally implemented until later in the fourth quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba504ef411201db80d58f2be678dd67d\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">3. What is the possibility of subsequent implementation of the bill?The passage of the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill still faces great difficulties, and there is a high probability that it will continue to be revised in the game between the two parties and the game between various factions within the party:(1) Basically all Republicans oppose the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment billFirst, because the scale of spending is too large, and second, because the bill includes tax increases on businesses and individuals that the Republican Party most opposes. The opposition of the Republican Party can be seen from the high-level statement of the Republican Party and the vote of Republican senators on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution (except for one Senate Republican Party who failed to vote for some reason, the rest voted against it).(2) There are differences within the Democratic PartyEven if the budget adjustment mechanism can be used to pass the spending bill by a simple majority, it needs to achieve complete unity within the Democratic Party (because the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the Senate is 50: 50, and Senate President Harris can vote when the vote is tied), but radicals within the Democratic Party The positions of the moderates are quite different, and some moderates think the spending scale is too large, so they do not support the bill. For example, Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema said at the end of last month that although she expressed her willingness to negotiate, she does not support the bill with a spending scale of up to $3.5 trillion.(3) Some contents unrelated to the budget may be eliminated。 Although the Senate can pass the bill by a simple majority vote through the budget adjustment mechanism, the content of the bill must be related to the budget, and the provisions unrelated to the budget will be deleted. For example, the Democratic Party's previous advocacy of raising the minimum hourly wage to $15/hour was found to be inconsistent with the budget adjustment mechanism and was eliminated.The $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is linked to the $3.5 trillion spending bill, but there is a possibility of decoupling in the future, so it is more likely to be passed by the House of Representatives.House Speaker Pelosi had previously said under pressure from radicals in the Democratic Party that the House of Representatives would not be allowed to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan until the Senate passed the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill. However, due to the difficulty and long time for the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill to be passed in the Senate, we believe that there is a possibility of decoupling the two bills in the future, and the US $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is more likely to be passed by the House of Representatives.","source":"lsy1624620577408","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How will the U.S. infrastructure bill and budget resolution be interpreted in the future?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow will the U.S. infrastructure bill and budget resolution be interpreted in the future?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n国君宏观研究2021-08-13 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nintroductionOn August 10th and 11th, the Senate of the United States voted to pass the US $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill and the approximately US $3.5 trillion budget resolution respectively. This report will mainly explore what processes the two bills will go through in the future, as well as their final implementation. Possibility and timing.SUMMARYThe $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill is mainly inherited from Biden's previous $2.3 trillion \"American Jobs Plan\"，However, compared with the original version of the \"American Employment Plan\", this infrastructure investment bill eliminates the \"humanistic care\" part and only retains the content of traditional infrastructure investment, while the scale has also been reduced to varying degrees. From an industry perspective, it will benefit industries such as infrastructure, new energy vehicles, electric power, and environmental protection.The main purpose of the Democratic Party's $350 million budget resolution in the Senate this time is to activate the Budget reconciliation mechanism, so that a larger spending bill supported by the Democratic Party can be passed by a simple majority in the Senate.From an industry perspective, the $3.5 trillion budget coordination bill will benefit new energy, electric power, environmental protection, healthcare and other industries.The above two bills were finally voted by both houses until late September at the earliest. However, considering the opening of the new fiscal year in early October and the time consumption of issues such as the debt ceiling between the two parties,We expect that the two bills may not be finally implemented until later in the fourth quarter.The passage of the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill still faces great difficulties, and there is a high probability that it will continue to be revised in the game between the two parties and the game between various factions within the party:(1) Almost all members of the Republican Party oppose the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill; (2) There are differences within the Democratic Party; (3) Some contents unrelated to the budget may be eliminated.The $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is linked to the $3.5 trillion spending bill, but there is a possibility of decoupling in the future, so it is more likely to be voted by the House of Representatives。 House Speaker Pelosi had previously said under pressure from radicals in the Democratic Party that the House of Representatives would not be allowed to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan until the Senate passed the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill. However, due to the difficulty and long time for the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill to be passed in the Senate, we believe that there is a possibility of decoupling the two bills in the future, and the US $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is more likely to be passed by the House of Representatives.text1. Main contents of infrastructure bill and budget resolutionThe $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill is mainly inherited from Biden's previous $2.3 trillion \"American Jobs Plan\", but compared with the original version of the \"American Jobs Plan\", this infrastructure investment bill eliminates the \"humanistic care\" part and only retains the content of traditional infrastructure investment, while the scale has also been reduced to varying degrees. About US $550 billion in the infrastructure investment bill passed this time is new infrastructure investment, of which about US $300 billion is invested in transportation-related infrastructure such as roads, bridges, passenger and freight railways, and US $250 billion is invested in water conservancy, broadband, electricity, etc. Other infrastructure facilities. If these measures finally become law, the construction of roads, bridges, water conservancy and other projects will be started in the next five years, and other projects will be started in the next 10 years.From an industry perspective, it will benefit industries such as infrastructure, new energy vehicles, electric power, and environmental protection.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fcaecfd2510a06dcaae97f5977740b\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The main purpose of the Democratic Party's $350 million budget resolution in the Senate is to activate the Budget reconciliation mechanism, so that a larger spending bill supported by the Democratic Party can be passed by a simple majority in the Senate。 The US $3.5 trillion budget plan is mainly inherited from the US $2.3 trillion \"American Jobs Plan\" and the US $1.8 trillion \"American Family Plan\" previously proposed by Biden, and excludes the above-mentioned US $550 billion in new infrastructure investment. For the existing traditional infrastructure part in the plan, the budget plan is mainly divided into four parts: family, climate, healthcare, infrastructure and work. The budget plan also stipulates that the Committee will submit it to the Senate no later than September 15Budget reconciliation bill, for the Senate to consider and vote. However, this budget plan does not include raising or extending the debt ceiling, and the bill to raise or extend the debt ceiling still needs to be voted by the Senate (we expect the two parties to reach an agreement on the bill by the end of September).From an industry perspective, it will benefit new energy, electric power, environmental protection, healthcare and other industries。2. The follow-up process and possible time nodes of the billThe above two bills were finally voted by both houses until late September at the earliest. The above-mentioned US $1 trillion infrastructure investment plan and approximately US $3.5 trillion budget resolution passed by the Senate will be sent to the House of Representatives for voting. At present, the House of Representatives will not end its adjournment until September 20, and the Senate is also expected to adjourn until September. mid-month. However, House Majority Leader Hoyer has previously said that if the Senate passes the budget resolution, the House of Representatives will resume work on August 23rd to consider the resolution, so there is also the possibility that the House of Representatives will end its vacation early to vote on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution. If the resolution is reviewed and passed by the House of Representatives, the Senate can pass a larger spending bill supported by the Democratic Party (such as this $3.5 trillion spending plan) by a simple majority through the Budget reconciliation mechanism (Budget reconciliation). Combined with the opening of the new fiscal year in early October and the time occupation of issues such as the debt ceiling between the two parties, we expect that the two bills may not be finally implemented until later in the fourth quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba504ef411201db80d58f2be678dd67d\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">3. What is the possibility of subsequent implementation of the bill?The passage of the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill still faces great difficulties, and there is a high probability that it will continue to be revised in the game between the two parties and the game between various factions within the party:(1) Basically all Republicans oppose the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment billFirst, because the scale of spending is too large, and second, because the bill includes tax increases on businesses and individuals that the Republican Party most opposes. The opposition of the Republican Party can be seen from the high-level statement of the Republican Party and the vote of Republican senators on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution (except for one Senate Republican Party who failed to vote for some reason, the rest voted against it).(2) There are differences within the Democratic PartyEven if the budget adjustment mechanism can be used to pass the spending bill by a simple majority, it needs to achieve complete unity within the Democratic Party (because the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the Senate is 50: 50, and Senate President Harris can vote when the vote is tied), but radicals within the Democratic Party The positions of the moderates are quite different, and some moderates think the spending scale is too large, so they do not support the bill. For example, Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema said at the end of last month that although she expressed her willingness to negotiate, she does not support the bill with a spending scale of up to $3.5 trillion.(3) Some contents unrelated to the budget may be eliminated。 Although the Senate can pass the bill by a simple majority vote through the budget adjustment mechanism, the content of the bill must be related to the budget, and the provisions unrelated to the budget will be deleted. For example, the Democratic Party's previous advocacy of raising the minimum hourly wage to $15/hour was found to be inconsistent with the budget adjustment mechanism and was eliminated.The $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is linked to the $3.5 trillion spending bill, but there is a possibility of decoupling in the future, so it is more likely to be passed by the House of Representatives.House Speaker Pelosi had previously said under pressure from radicals in the Democratic Party that the House of Representatives would not be allowed to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan until the Senate passed the $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill. However, due to the difficulty and long time for the US $3.5 trillion budget adjustment bill to be passed in the Senate, we believe that there is a possibility of decoupling the two bills in the future, and the US $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan is more likely to be passed by the House of Representatives.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LxhjA6yW4uHZTCAknf-HnQ\">国君宏观研究</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LxhjA6yW4uHZTCAknf-HnQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159261524","content_text":"导读\n美国8月10日和11日，参议院分别表决通过了1万亿美元基建投资法案和约3.5万亿美元预算决议，本报告将主要探究两个法案后续还将经历哪些流程，以及最终落地的可能性和时点。\n摘要\n1万亿美元基建投资法案主要继承自拜登此前提出的约2.3万亿美元的“美国就业计划”，但与最初版本的“美国就业计划”相比，本次基建投资法案剔除了“人文关怀”的部分，仅保留了对传统基建投资的内容，同时规模也有不同程度的缩减。从行业角度来看，将利好基建、新能源汽车、电力、环保等行业。\n民主党在参议院本次通过3.5亿美元预算决议（budget resolution）的主要目的是为了启动预算调节机制（Budget reconciliation），从而能够在参议院以简单多数票通过民主党支持的更大规模的支出法案。从行业角度来看，3.5万亿美元预算协调法案将利好新能源、电力、环保、医疗保健等行业。\n上述两个法案最终被两院表决通过最快也需要到9月下旬，但考虑到10月初新财政年度开启以及两党关于债务上限等议题对时间的占用，我们预计两个法案在四季度晚些时候可能才会最终落地。\n3.5万亿美元预算调节法案通过仍面临较大困难，大概率仍将在两党之间的博弈和党内各派系之间的博弈中继续修改：（1）共和党基本全员反对3.5万亿美元预算调节法案；（2）民主党内部存在分歧；（3）部分与财政预算无关的内容可能被剔除。\n1万亿美元的基建支出计划与3.5万亿美元支出法案挂钩，但后续有脱钩的可能性，从而被众议院表决通过的可能性较大。众议院议长佩洛西此前在民主党内激进派的压力之下曾表示，在参议院通过3.5万亿美元预算调节法案前，不会允许众议院对1万亿美元基建支出计划进行表决。但由于3.5万亿美元预算调节法案在参议院获得通过的难度大、时间长，所以我们认为后续这两个法案存在脱钩的可能性，1万亿美元基建支出计划被众议院表决通过的可能性较大。\n\n\n\n\n\n正文\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1.  基建法案和预算决议的主要内容\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n1万亿美元基建投资法案主要继承自拜登此前提出的约2.3万亿美元的“美国就业计划”，但与最初版本的“美国就业计划”相比，本次基建投资法案剔除了“人文关怀”的部分，仅保留了对传统基建投资的内容，同时规模也有不同程度的缩减。本次通过基建投资法案中大约有5500亿美元为新增基建投资，其中约3000亿美元投资于道路桥梁、客货铁路等与交通运输相关的基建，2500亿美元投资于水利、宽带、电力等其他基建设施。若这些措施最终成为法律，将在未来5年内启动道路桥梁、水利等项目建设，在未来10年内启动其他项目建设。从行业角度来看，将利好基建、新能源汽车、电力、环保等行业。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n民主党在参议院本次通过3.5亿美元预算决议（budget resolution）的主要目的是为了启动预算调节机制（Budget reconciliation），从而能够在参议院以简单多数票通过民主党支持的更大规模的支出法案。3.5万亿美元预算计划主要继承自拜登此前提出的约2.3万亿美元的“美国就业计划”和约1.8万亿美元的“美国家庭计划”，并从中剔除上述5500亿美元新增基建投资计划中已有的传统基建的部分，预算计划主要分为家庭、气候、医疗保健、基础设施与工作四大部分。本次预算计划同时还规定委员会将不晚于9月15日，向参议院提交预算协调法案（reconciliation bill），供参议院审议表决。但本次预算计划并不包括提高或延长债务上限的内容，提高或延长债务上限的法案还另需参议院表决通过（我们预计两党将在9月底就该法案达一致）。从行业角度来看，将利好新能源、电力、环保、医疗保健等行业。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n2.  法案的后续流程及可能时间节点\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n上述两个法案最终被两院表决通过最快也需要到9月下旬。参议院上述通过的1万亿美元基建投资计划和约3.5万亿美元预算决议将被送至众议院表决，而目前众议院直到9月20日才会结束休会，而参议院接下来也预计将休会至9月中旬。但众议院多数党领袖霍耶此前曾表示，如果参议院通过预算决议，众议院将于8月23日恢复工作以审议该决议，所以也存在众议院提前结束休假，以表决通过3.5万亿美元预算决议的可能性。若该决议被众议院审议通过，则参议院就可以通过预算调节机制（Budget reconciliation），绕过冗长辩论，以简单多数票通过民主党支持的更大规模的支出法案（如本次的3.5万亿美元支出计划）。结合10月初新财政年度开启以及两党关于债务上限等议题对时间的占用，我们预计两个法案在四季度晚些时候可能才会最终落地。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n3.  法案后续落地的可能性如何\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n3.5万亿美元预算调节法案通过仍面临较大困难，大概率仍将在两党之间的博弈和党内各派系之间的博弈中继续修改：\n（1）共和党基本全员反对3.5万亿美元预算调节法案，一是因为支出规模过大，二是因为该法案包括了共和党最反对的对企业和个人加税的内容。共和党的反对态度可以从共和党高层表态和共和党参议员此次对3.5万亿美元预算决议的投票中看出（参议院共和党除一人因故未能参与投票外，其余均投反对票）。\n（2）民主党内部存在分歧，即便利用预算调节机制能够以简单多数通过支出法案，但需要民主党内部实现完全统一（因为参议院民主党与共和党比例为50:50，参议院议长哈里斯可以在平票时参与投票），但民主党内部激进派和温和派立场差异较大，部分温和派认为支出规模过大，从而不支持该法案，例如民主党参议员 Kyrsten Sinema上月底表示，尽管她表示愿意进行谈判，但她不并支持支出规模高达3.5万亿美元的法案。\n（3）部分与财政预算无关的内容可能被剔除。虽然参议院可以通过预算调节机制以简单多数票通过法案，但该法案的内容必须与财政预算有关，与财政预算无关的条款将会被删掉，例如此前民主党主张的将最低时薪提高至15美元/小时，就被认定为不符合预算调节机制而被剔除。\n1万亿美元的基建支出计划与3.5万亿美元支出法案挂钩，但后续有脱钩的可能性，从而被众议院表决通过的可能性较大。众议院议长佩洛西此前在民主党内激进派的压力之下曾表示，在参议院通过3.5万亿美元预算调节法案前，不会允许众议院对1万亿美元基建支出计划进行表决。但由于3.5万亿美元预算调节法案在参议院获得通过的难度大、时间长，所以我们认为后续这两个法案存在脱钩的可能性，1万亿美元基建支出计划被众议院表决通过的可能性较大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}