👍👍👍-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community

Like
Comment
Favorite

pkl
2022-05-23

👍👍👍

How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?

在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调

How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9026991736,"tweetId":"9026991736","gmtCreate":1653310153325,"gmtModify":1676535257559,"author":{"id":4090282032864880,"idStr":"4090282032864880","authorId":4090282032864880,"authorIdStr":"4090282032864880","name":"pkl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e774fafbe3985365e6e79f4f083da4a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍👍👍</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍👍👍</body></html>","text":"👍👍👍","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026991736","repostId":1101749478,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101749478","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653304230,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101749478?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 19:10","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101749478","media":"星图金融研究院","summary":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调","content":"<html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.What is the follow-up impact?First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</body></html>","source":"lsy1653304243615","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow much impact will the overall reduction of mortgage interest rates have on the capital market and residents?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n星图金融研究院2022-05-23 19:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>After just lowering the lower limit of the new first-home loan interest rate by 20 basis points, the existing mortgage loan has also ushered in major benefits. On May 20, the central bank announced the LPR quotation, and the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.7%. However, for the LPR of more than 5 years, which has a significant impact on the mortgage crowd, it was significantly reduced by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%, which greatly exceeded market expectations.The real estate market is related to people's livelihood. Whether it is with or without a house, it is very related to every policy of real estate. Under the impact of the epidemic, there are many stimulus policies, but policies related to real estate can always easily make hot search headlines.Since the beginning of this year, hundreds of prefectures and cities have introduced various measures including but not limited to adjusting purchase restriction policies, reducing down payment ratios, issuing housing subsidies, revising sales restriction policies, encouraging families with multiple children to buy houses, and providing financial support for housing companies. The policy is not small, but from the real estate sales data, the effect is obviously very limited.At the moment when it is constantly emphasized that \"housing is for living, not for speculation\", why have all localities relaxed the property market, and the central bank has also issued a heavy policy of \"lowering interest rates\"? What is the follow-up impact on the stock market, real estate market and individuals?Why should we reduce both new and existing mortgage interest rates?After the Politburo meeting in April re-emphasized the confirmation of this year's economic goal of \"steady growth\", how to achieve \"steady growth\" has become a concern for the market.From the perspective of the troika of investment, consumption, and net exports, although consumption accounts for the largest proportion, residents' expectations have weakened, and coupled with the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult to boost it. In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1% year-on-year. In terms of net exports, the policies of countries such as Europe and the United States have gradually shrunk, representing U.S. consumption expectations. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index has dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years, and external demand is also difficult to continue to grow. In terms of investment, among the three items of infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment, manufacturing investment accounts for a small proportion and is affected by the current epidemic. Infrastructure and real estate have become an important starting point for \"steady growth\".In order to \"stabilize growth\", under the current economic situation, it is necessary to stabilize real estate and develop infrastructure construction, and these two are precisely the main trends of the capital market in the first quarter.Real estate has become the shortcoming of the current \"steady growth\". Faced with the weakness of the real estate industry, although since April this year, local governments around the world have begun to relax their real estate policies, by reducing the down payment ratio, providing housing subsidies, and canceling sales restrictions. and other policies to boost real estate sales. However, facts show that small regional stimulus policies are difficult to boost real estate market expectations. At the same time, the recent epidemic has further made it more difficult to restore real estate sales, and national stimulus policies are needed to further exert efforts to break the continuous negative feedback from the market. Judging from the fact that the upstream and downstream real estate contributes nearly 20% of GDP, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the mortgage interest rate of new house purchase demand and reverse residents' house purchase expectations, so as to achieve the goal of \"steady growth\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f4d06202d676cd782a5289d856ebe25\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>For the real estate industry, policy support is also needed to ease the pressure of giving up financing. The thunderstorms of private real estate bonds have put great pressure on financial stability. Although the policy has continuously released good news about private enterprise financing this year, the \"ghost story\" of real estate companies has frightened the capital market, and the path for real estate companies to refinance is almost frozen. By adjusting the mortgage interest rate and guiding residents to buy houses to increase the sales revenue of real estate companies, it can greatly improve the cash flow of real estate companies, and further help improve the financing capabilities of real estate companies.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94bae5d1a285d153a82286faa69bea6c\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>If these are all \"slow factors\", then the cliff-like decline in social financing data in April is the key to trigger the real estate stimulus policy in the national sense. According to the April social financing data released by the central bank on May 13, new credit was \"halved\" year-on-year. In particular, in April, housing loans in the residential sector decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of the year-on-year credit decrease. This shows that residents are not only reluctant to buy houses, but even prefer to pay off their mortgages rather than add new loans. The hot search \"I feel relaxed to repay the mortgage\" has proved the psychological expectations and status of the current mortgage crowd to a certain extent. If the current expectation of residents' continuous reduction in leverage cannot be reversed, then the real estate sales data may further deteriorate, which is undoubtedly a great challenge for the \"steady growth\" of the economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a94cc6e2c31bd183ae74e4256e4c9f\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Therefore, after the social financing data was released on May 13, the central bank quickly introduced this year's first national real estate stimulus policy on May 15, that is, lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate. For those who just need no house, it is a real preferential policy. Without considering other constraints, it can indeed stimulate the just-needed purchase demand. Of course, in real life, the mortgage interest rate is not the core contradiction that restricts consumers to buy houses, nor is it the primary consideration for consumers to buy houses. Lowering the mortgage interest rate has a limited effect on reversing expectations. But this at least represents the attitude of supervision towards the current real estate market, which is of great significance to the real estate financial policy at the national level.After adjusting the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate, the market actually generally expects that the 5-year LPR will not be further adjusted on the LPR quotation announcement date on May 20. After all, the impact of the previous policy has not yet appeared, and the current monetary policy is still Affected by the internal and external pressures of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the United States and domestic inflation, the market generally expects the central bank to not further lower the LPR quotation. However, it is precisely for this reason that the 15 basis point reduction of the 5-year LPR greatly exceeded market expectations, and it is also the largest reduction after the LPR reform.However, judging from the current market and economic situation, it is necessary to reduce the 5-year LPR. First, it lies in the strength of the policy. As mentioned earlier, the policy of \"lowering the lower limit of the first home mortgage loan interest rate\" on May 13th has far greater signal significance than substantive significance. It is more due to the necessity of resolving real estate risks, implementing the easing signal of the Politburo, hedging the \"bad news\" of sluggish financial data, and boosting market expectations. However, the market is generally not optimistic about boosting real estate sales. Since the effectiveness of policies is limited, in order to stabilize real estate and economic growth, stronger policies are bound to be introduced to further reverse expectations.The second is that compared with the incremental real estate market, the stock mortgage market is larger and the policy is more leveraged. After the May 3rd policy, many people reported on the Internet that they are now affected by the epidemic, and their income has been greatly reduced. They also need to lower interest rates to ease residents' loan repayment pressure. After the epidemic, more and more people have cut off their loans, and the number of foreclosure houses has increased significantly, all of which to a certain extent indicate the current loan pressure of repayers. At the same time, by lowering the 5-year LPR to alleviate the pressure of residents' interest expenses, it can also stimulate residents' consumption from the side to a certain extent, which is also the proper meaning of steady growth.What is the follow-up impact?First, let's talk about the impact on the capital market. Whether it is lowering the lower limit of personal first home loan interest rate by 20BP or lowering the 5-year LPR15BP, these can be said to be heavy real estate stimulus policies in the national sense that are rare after 2016. The signal is of great significance, so it will inevitably cause a huge wave of hype in the capital market. After the policy was released on May 13, the Wind Real Estate Index soared 4.37%, and the narrow trading day opened up 4.3%. However, the capital market has always valued expectations and is most afraid of \"boots landing\". After the LPR was announced on May 20, the real estate index fell by 1.2% instead of rising. For listed real estate companies, the policy goals may have reached an inflection point, but for those listed real estate companies that have already experienced thunderstorms and are about to experience thunderstorms, it is still unknown whether they can persist until the end. Therefore, the value of the current speculation of listed real estate companies does exist. As for the long-term investment value, it needs to be marked with a big question mark. After all, policy is not a panacea, and it is powerless for terminally ill patients.The second is the impact on the real estate sales market. At present, real estate sales have experienced negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months since July last year, and the decline is still increasing due to the recent impact of the epidemic. According to CRIC statistics, in April 2022, more than 90% of the TOP50 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year decline in full-scale sales in a single month, and the year-on-year decline was basically more than 30%. If the disturbance factors of the epidemic after May can be taken into account, there is a high probability that the real estate sales data will continue to be repaired in the second half of this year. At the same time, according to the historical experience of real estate regulation and control, the improvement of sales data will lag behind the decline of mortgage interest rates by about half a year. However, considering the impact of the epidemic on sales and the normalization of offline consumption activities, the improvement of real estate sales may It will still take a long time.Finally, it is the impact on residents who buy new houses and those who are repaying their loans. First of all, for those who just need to buy a house, according to the policies after May 13 and May 20, the interest rate of the first suite can be as low as 4.25%, and the interest rate of the second suite can be as low as 5.05%. For just needs, it should be a very attractive interest rate. As for the questions that many people are concerned about, \"Do you want to get on the bus now, do you want to wait and see\", no one can buy it at an absolute low point. For those who just need it, the room for short-term follow-up LPR reduction is already very small. There is limited room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and it is already a relatively good time. Of course, when it comes to buying a house, different people have different opinions. There is no absolute correctness, but more personal needs.Another type of people who are greatly affected are those who are repaying their loans. Generally speaking, banks use the 5-year LPR as the benchmark, add certain points, agree on the interest rate in the contract with the buyer, and adjust it once a year. If the interest rate adjustment date is after May 20th, the adjusted interest rate will be 0.15% lower than before the adjustment. As for many people who agree to adjust interest rates on January 1st of each year, they can only wait until next year to enjoy preferential interest rates. According to the estimate, if the loan is 500,000 yuan and the equal principal and interest are repaid for 30 years, the interest expense can be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in total.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA\">星图金融研究院</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ytImsNQymGtnI0HjrLsPcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101749478","content_text":"在刚刚对新增的首套房贷利率下限下调了20个基点后，存量房贷也迎来重大利好。5月20日，央行公布LPR报价，一年期LPR维持不变仍为3.7%。但对于房贷人群影响重大的5年期以上LPR，从4.6%大幅下调15个基点至4.45%，大超市场预期。房地产市场事关民生，无论是有房的还是没房的，都非常关房地产的每一项政策。疫情冲击之下，刺激政策繁多，但事关房地产的政策总是能够轻而易举地冲上热搜头条。今年以来，有上百个地市出台了各种包括但不限于调整限购政策、降低首付比例、发放购房补贴、限售政策修改、鼓励多孩家庭购房、为房企提供资金支持等方面。政策力度不可谓不大，但从房地产销售数据来看，效果显然十分有限。在不断强调“房住不炒”的当下，为何各地纷纷放松楼市，央行也出了“下调利率”这一重磅政策？后续对于股市、房地产市场以及个人来说，又有何影响呢？为何要对新增及存量房贷利率双降？在4月政治局会议再次强调确认今年“稳增长”的经济目标后，怎样才能做到“稳增长”成为市场担忧的问题。分别从投资、消费、净出口这三驾马车来看，消费虽然占比最大，但居民预期转弱，再叠加疫情的影响，难以提振，4月社会消费品零售总额更是同比下降11.1%。净出口方面，欧美等国家政策逐渐收缩，代表美国消费预期密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至10年多来最低水平，外需也同样难以继续增长。而投资方面，在基建、房地产、制造业投资三项中，制造业投资占比小且受当前疫情影响，基建与房地产就成为“稳增长”的重要抓手。要想“稳增长”，在当前的经济形势下，就必须要稳住房地产，发力基建，而这二者，也恰恰是一季度资本市场的主线行情。房地产已经成了当前“稳增长”的短板，面对地产行业的弱势，虽然从今年4月以来，各地的地方政府已纷纷开始放松地产政策，通过降低首付比例、提供购房补贴、取消限售等政策来提振地产销售。但事实表明，区域性小幅度的刺激政策难以提振房地产市场预期。同时，近期的疫情又进一步加大房地产销售修复的难度，需要全国性的刺激政策进一步发力来打破市场不断的负反馈。以房地产上下游贡献近20%的GDP来看，适当地降低新增购房需求的房贷利率，扭转居民购房预期，从而实现“稳增长”的目标，十分有必要。而对于房地产行业而言，缓解放弃融资压力也同样需要政策支持。民营房企债券的纷纷暴雷，给金融稳定带来了极大的压力。虽然今年以来政策不断释放民企融资的利好消息，但房企的“鬼故事”已经吓坏了资本市场，房企再融资的路径几乎冰封。通过调整房贷利率，引导居民购房增长房企销售收入，能够很好地改善房企的现金流，更进一步也有利于房企融资能力的改善。如果说这些都是“慢因素”，那四月社融数据的断崖式下跌，则是触发全国意义上的地产刺激政策的按键。根据央行在5月13日公布的4月社融数据，新增信贷同比“腰斩”，尤其是4月居民部门住房贷款减少了605亿元，同比少增4022亿元，贡献近半的信贷同比降幅。这表明，居民不仅不愿意买房子了，甚至宁愿还掉房贷，也不愿意新增贷款。冲上热搜的“还房贷觉得一身轻松”一定程度上已经证明了当前房贷人群的心理预期和状态。如果不能扭转当前这种居民不断降杠杆的预期，那么房地产销售数据可能会进一步恶化，这对于经济的“稳增长”而言，毫无疑问是极大的挑战。因此，在5月13日公布社融数据后，央行很快的就在5月15日出台了今年首个全国意义的上的房地产刺激政策，即降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，这对于刚需无房者而言，是一个确确实实的优惠政策。在不考虑其他约束条件下，也确实能够刺激刚需的购买需求。当然，在现实生活中，房贷利率并非约束消费者购房的核心矛盾，也非消费者购房决策的首要考虑因素，下调房贷利率对扭转预期的作用有限。但这最起码代表了监管对当前房地产市场呵护的态度，对于全国层面对房地产金融政策来说，意义重大。在调整了首套住房按揭贷款利率下限，市场其实普遍预期在5月20日的LPR报价公布日，5年期LPR不会做进一步调整，毕竟前一个政策的影响尚未显现，而且当前货币政策还受到中美利差倒挂与国内通胀的内外部压力，因此市场普遍预计央行不会进一步的下调LPR的报价。不过也正是因此，本次5年期LPR15个基点的下调幅度大超市场预期，同时也是LPR改革后最大降幅。不过如果从当前市场与经济的情况看，5年期LPR的调降又有必要性。其一在于政策力度，如前所述，5月13日“降低首套住房按揭贷款利率下限”的政策，信号意义要远大于实质意义，更多的是出于化解房地产风险的必要性、落实政治局宽松信号、对冲金融数据低迷的“坏消息”、提振市场预期等，但对于提振房地产销售方面，市场普遍并不报以乐观态度，毕竟对于一个真正有能力的刚需购房者而言，并不会因为房贷利率降低或提升了0.2%就因此而决定买或不买。既然政策有效性有限，为了稳房地产、稳经济增长，势必就需要更强力的政策出台，更进一步地扭转预期。其二在于相对于房地产增量市场而言，存量房贷的市场更大，政策的杠杆性更强。很多人在5月3日政策后，在网上反映现在受到疫情的影响，收入大幅度降低，也需要降低利率缓解居民的还贷压力。疫情后断供者越来越多、法拍房数量大幅度增长，这些都一定程度上表明了当前还款人的供贷压力。同时，通过调降5年期LPR缓解居民的利息支出压力，也能一定程度上从侧面刺激居民消费，这也是稳增长中的应有之意。后续有何影响？首先说对于资本市场的影响。无论是下调个人首套住房贷款利率下限20BP，还是下调5年期LPR15BP，这些可以说是在2016年之后鲜有的全国意义上的重磅房地产刺激政策，信号意义巨大，所以必然会引起资本市场一波巨大的炒作。5月13日政策发布后，万得房地产指数暴涨4.37%，狭义交易日又开盘大涨4.3%。但资本市场向来看重预期，最怕“靴子落地”。5月20日公布LPR后，房地产指数不涨反跌1.2%。对于房地产上市公司而言，政策目标或许已经来到了拐点，但对于那些已经暴雷和马上暴雷的房地产上市企业而言，能否坚持到最后，仍然是尚未可知。因此当前上市房企炒作的价值确实有，至于长期投资价值，则需要打上一个大大的问号。毕竟政策不是万能药，对于病入膏肓的病人来说，也是无能为力的。其次是对于房地产销售市场的影响。目前来看，房地产销售自去年7月以来已连续10个月同比负增长，而且近期受到疫情的影响，跌幅仍在加大。根据克而瑞统计，2022年4月，TOP50房企中超9成房企单月全口径销售额同比下滑，同比降幅基本在30%以上。如果可考虑到5月后疫情的扰动因素修复，今年下半年大概率房地产销售数据会持续的修复。同时，根据历史上房地产调控的经验来看，销售数据的改善会滞后于房贷利率下降约半年左右，但同时考虑到疫情对于销售的影响，以及线下消费活动的正常化，房地产销售的改善可能仍需要不短的时日。最后是对于居民新购房以及正在还贷款的人的影响。先说对于刚需购房者，按照5月13日和5月20日之后的政策来看，首套房的利率最低可以到4.25%，二套房利率最低可以达到5.05%。对于刚需来说，应该是一个非常具有吸引力的利率。至于说很多人关心的“现在要不要上车，要不要等等看”这类的问题，没有人能够买在绝对的低点，对于刚需者而言，短期后续LPR调降的空间已经非常小，房贷利率下降的空间有限，已经是一个相对不错的时点。当然，对于买房这件事，仁者见仁智者见智，没有绝对的正确，更多是个人的需求。另一类受到比较大影响的则是正在还贷的人群。一般来说，银行都是以5年期LPR作为基准，并进行一定的加点，与购房者在合同中约定利率，并每年调整一次。如果利率调整日期在5月20日之后的，那调整后的利率将比调整前低0.15%。至于很多约定在每年1月1日调整利率的，就只能等待到明年后才能享受到优惠的利率。而按照估算，如果贷款50万元，等额本息方式还款30年，大约一共能够减少利息支出1.6万元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}