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TanTH
2022-03-15

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The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices "swing wildly" between rebounds and plunges

全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪

The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices "swing wildly" between rebounds and plunges

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9032389283,"tweetId":"9032389283","gmtCreate":1647290887017,"gmtModify":1676534211501,"author":{"id":3586167248367118,"idStr":"3586167248367118","authorId":3586167248367118,"authorIdStr":"3586167248367118","name":"TanTH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9317bf33bd64e46c21c589d7bac5157","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9032389283","repostId":1178901868,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178901868","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1647270835,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178901868?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-14 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market turns its face when it says it turns its face, and U.S. bond prices \"swing wildly\" between rebounds and plunges","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178901868","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪","content":"<html><head></head><body>The recent violent volatility in the U.S. Treasury Bond market, the world's largest bond market, has posed huge challenges to traders trying to bet on both tightening global monetary policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger commodity price shocks, thereby stimulating safe-haven demand, whileThe latter (commodity price shocks) is triggering concerns about something similar to \"1970s-style stagflation.\"Since the Russian troops sent to Ukraine, the price of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen sharply and the yield has continued to decline. Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surgesThe volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.Recession expectationsSince last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\", that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.Actively managed debt funds are popular with investorsTodd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Safe-haven investors have rushed to buy this generally considered one of the safest assets. At the same time, bond investors have rushed to buy U.S. bonds to avoid future prices. Miss buying points when climbing.Zhitong Finance APP observed that last week, the situation seemed to have reversed. As concerns that the inflation rate has not yet peaked once again became the focus of the bond market, safe-haven buying of U.S. bonds gradually withdrew, and the two-year U.S. bond yield soared to the highest point in two years. With the consumer price index (CPI) surging sharply and may still not have peaked, it shows that the Fed is highly likely to start a rate hike cycle on Wednesday Eastern Time.Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was sold sharply again, with the yield once reaching 2.10%, the highest level since July 2019.On March 9, the intraday yield of the 10-year U.S. bond was as low as 1.837%, and finally closed at a high of 1.958%. On March 10, the intraday yield was as low as 1.913%, and finally closed at a high of 2.021%. Similar plots were staged almost every day last week. Should we continue to bet? Traders are \"extremely tangled\".The previous violent volatility has posed a difficult problem for traders: after selling U.S. bonds to make a profit flight, although everyone now has a lot of money on hand, the wrong person who bets will face a heavy price-in such a rapidly changing investment environment, there seems to be enough reasons to make bullish or bearish predictions. This back-and-forth pull has brought the widely watched U.S. Treasury Bond implied price volatility indicator to its highest level since the early COVID-19 crash in March 2020, or since the 2008 financial crisis.In the face of this situation, some hedge funds have been treading cautiously to avoid losing money from wrong bets, deleveraging and unwinding positions. Long-term investors have increased their bets on long-term U.S. bonds (over 10 years), believing that long-term U.S. bonds will perform better as the outlook for U.S. economic growth darkens.Meanwhile, investors with smaller assets have been pouring cash on hand into some actively managed ETF funds focused on short-end bonds to transition over a period of slowing economic growth, a trend that data shows has been prevalent since the beginning of the year.John Brady, managing director of Chicago-based futures brokerage RJ O 'Brien, said: \"There is no doubt that this is a market that belongs to short-term traders.\"He noted that with near-zero interest rates over the past two years, long-term investors have not seized the opportunities presented by spreads.U.S. Treasury Bond market volatility surgesThe volatility reflects broader market volatility as investors assess the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy, causing simultaneous volatility in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets. This presents opportunities for quick-thinking traders,But it also brings the risk of \"standing on the wrong side\" in the trend change.Citigroup strategist William O 'Donnell said that since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of the U.S. Treasury Bond market is the largest value-at-risk (VAR) shock to \"hedge funds and hot money accounts\" since March 2020. He said that Citi's metrics show that trading volume in the Treasury Bond market in the United States has dropped from a higher level. \"At that time, there was a view that this was a good profit opportunity, and now there is a sentiment that we should keep our feet on the ground and reduce the size of the deal.\"It is worth noting that last week, the U.S. banking industry pointed out that some of the usually popular transactions have recently begun to shrink significantly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will conduct multiple rate hike this year. Bank of America said the decline in trading volume represents uncertainty for the market in the short term, which is clearly reflected in the potential surge in volatility, noting that implied volatility across the yield curve has risen sharply.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175c1f979b85ff0a47e5f77cc1b012d9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Bank of America pointed out that on Tuesday, the ICE Bank of America MOVE Index, which tracks traders' expectations for volatility in the U.S. bond market, hit 140.03 points, its highest level since March 2020.The U.S. Treasury Bond has had its worst week in the last 10 years, losing a value in 5 days equivalent to the entire interest payment of the past year. The U.S. Treasury Bond Index is down 3.8% this year, more than any full-year decline recorded by Bloomberg data since 1973.Recession expectationsSince last month, the soaring commodity prices have made the market's expectation of economic growth slowdown stronger and stronger. The market is worried that economic growth will slow down when interest rates rise. Some traders even believe that \"signs of stagflation\" are already very obvious.This further stimulated the already strong so-called \"flattening trade demand.\", that is, betting that short-term yields will rise more dramatically than long-term yields as economic growth prospects dim. On March 7, the difference between the two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields narrowed to just 19 basis points, the smallest difference since the early COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 caused the U.S. economy to face stagnation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3916710126c4e65b0d5170ae90640dfa\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>However, as traders try to judge whether they have the guts to bet on flattening, long-term investors are focusing on protecting their assets from rising downtrend risks. O 'Donnell, a strategist at Citigroup, said that some pension and insurance companies' capital flows are concentrated on buying options on 10-30-year U.S. Treasuries. If the U.S. economy slows sharply next year and yields fall from current levels, these option holders will profit.Western Asset fund manager Molly Schwartz said the company has begun to pivot one of its main funds more towards longer-end bonds. \"We're moving some of our front-end exposure above the yield curve,\" Schwartz said, with the company managing nearly $500 billion of assets at the end of last year.Some analysts also believe that rising yields provide some benefits for individual investors, who can reinvest interest and principal in bonds with higher yields.Actively managed debt funds are popular with investorsTodd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the volatility also appears to have increased investor interest in some ETF funds.These funds seek to proactively manage market risk and focus on short-term U.S. debt, he mentioned the capital inflow of related products of large financial institutions such as PIMCO and JPMorgan Chase this year.\"Historically, investors have been willing to believe that actively managed debt-based fund managers can cope with market uncertainty by looking for additional yields with lower risks,\" Rosenbluth said. \"Understandably, compared with last year, this year's capital flows provide some protection against expectations of higher interest rates, when last year's fixed-income ETFs faced higher risks.\"For investors who have maintained a defensive posture and kept their interest rate exposure low, the rise in yields may provide an opportunity to get back into the market.Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said: \"We have held positions for a short time and are trying to get back to neutral levels, so in our view the 2% level of any asset at 10 years is reasonable value for us.\"</body></html>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178901868","content_text":"全球最大债券市场——美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动性，令试图同时押注紧缩性全球货币政策和俄乌冲突引发大宗商品价格冲击进而刺激避险需求的交易员面临巨大挑战，而后者(大宗商品价格冲击)正引发市场对类似“上世纪70年代式滞胀”的担忧。自俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国国债价格大幅上涨，收益率不断下滑，避险投资者纷纷买入这一普遍认为最安全的资产之一，同时引发债券投资者争相购买美债，以避免未来价格攀升时错过买点。智通财经APP观察到，在上周，情形似乎出现了反转，随着对通胀率仍未见顶担忧再度成为债市焦点，美债避险买盘逐渐退场，两年期美债收益率飙升至两年来最高点。随着消费者价格指数(CPI)大幅飙升且可能仍未见顶，显示美联储极大概率于美东时间周三开始加息周期。而在今天，10年期美债再次被大幅抛售，收益率一度达到2.10%，创2019年7月以来的最高水平。在3月9日，10年期美债日内收益率一度低至1.837%，最后以1.958%高点收盘，在3月10日日内收益率一度低至1.913%，最后以2.021%高点收盘，在上周几乎每天都在上演类似的剧情，究竟该不该继续押注?交易员们“纠结无比”。此前剧烈的波动给交易员们带来了一个难题:抛售美债实现获利出逃之后，尽管目前大家手头上拥有大量资金，但押注错误的人将面临惨重代价——在变化如此迅速的投资环境之中，做出看涨或看跌预判似乎都有足够的理由。这种来回拉扯使得广受关注的美国国债隐含价格波动性指标达到了自2020年3月新冠疫情初期崩盘，或2008年金融危机之后的最高水平。面对这种情况，一些对冲基金一直在谨慎行事，以避免因错误的押注、去杠杆化和平仓而蒙受亏损。长线投资者加大了对长端美债(10年期以上)的押注，认为随着美国经济增长前景黯淡，长端美债将会有更好的表现。与此同时，资产规模较小的投资者一直在向一些专注于短端债券的主动管理型ETF基金投入手头上的现金，以过渡经济增长放缓时期，有数据显示这一趋势自年初以来一直很普遍。芝加哥期货经纪公司RJ O’Brien董事总经理John Brady表示：“毫无疑问，这是一个属于短期交易者的市场。”他指出，在过去两年接近零利率的情况下，长期投资者没有抓住利差带来的机会。美国国债市场波动性剧增这一波动性反映了更广泛的市场波动，因为此时投资者正评估俄乌冲突对全球经济带来的影响，导致股市、债市和外汇市场同时出现剧烈波动。这为思维敏捷的交易员带来了机会，但也带来了在趋势转变中“站错边”的风险。花旗集团策略师William O’Donnell表示，自俄乌冲突升级以来，美国国债市场的走势对“对冲基金和热钱账户”来说是2020年3月以来最大的风险价值(VAR)冲击。他表示，花旗的衡量指标显示，美国国债市场的成交量已从较高水平下降，“当时有一种观点认为，这是一个不错的获利机会，而现在有一种情绪，认为我们应该脚踏实地，减少交易规模。”值得注意的是，在上周，美国银行业曾指出，在美联储今年将多次加息的预期下，一些往常较热门的交易近期开始大幅缩减。美银表示，交易量下滑代表着市场在短期内面临不确定性，而这明显体现在潜在的波动性剧增上，并指出整条收益率曲线上的隐含波动率均大幅上升。美银指出，在上周二，追踪交易员对美国债券市场波动预期的ICE美国银行移动指数(BofA MOVE Index)触及140.03点，为2020年3月以来的最高水平。美国国债经历了过去10年中最糟糕的一周，在5天内损失的价值相当于过去一年的全部利息支付。美国国债指数今年下跌了3.8%，超过了自1973年以来Bloomberg data有记录的任何全年跌幅。经济衰退预期自上个月以来，大宗商品价格飙升使得市场对于经济增长放缓的预期越来越强烈，市场担心在利率上升之际经济增长速度将放缓，甚至有交易员认为“滞胀苗头”已非常明显。这进一步刺激了本已强劲的所谓“趋平交易需求”，即押注随着经济增长前景黯淡，短端收益率将比长端收益率升幅更加剧烈。在3月7日，两年期和10年期美债收益率的差值缩小至仅19个基点，这是自2020年3月新冠疫情初期导致美国经济面临停滞以来的最小差值。不过，在交易员们试图判断自己是否有胆量押注趋平之际，长线投资者正专注于保护其资产免受不断增长的下行趋势风险的冲击。花旗集团策略师O’Donnell表示，部分养老金和保险公司的资金流向集中于买入10- 30年期美债的期权，如果明年美国经济大幅放缓，收益率从当前水平回落，这些期权持有者将会获利。Western Asset基金经理Molly Schwartz表示，该公司已开始将旗下一只主要基金更多地转向较长端债券。截至去年年底，该公司管理着近5,000亿美元资产，Schwartz表示:“我们正在将一些前端敞口移至收益率曲线上方。”也有分析观点认为，收益率抬升为个人投资者提供了一些好处，他们可以将利息和本金再投资于收益率更高的债券。主动管理型债基受投资者热捧CFRA Research的ETF和共同基金研究主管Todd Rosenbluth表示，这种波动似乎也增加了投资者们对一些ETF基金的兴趣，这些基金寻求主动管理市场风险，并专注于短端美债，他提到了太平洋投资管理公司和摩根大通等大型金融机构旗下相关产品今年以来的资金流入量。Rosenbluth表示:“从历史数据来看，投资者一直愿意相信主动管理型债基的基金经理能够通过寻找风险较低的额外收益来应对市场的不确定性。”“可以理解的是，与去年相比，今年的资金流向为利率抬升这一预期提供了一些保护空间，而当时去年的固定收益型ETF面临的风险较高。”对于那些一直保持防御性态势并保持较低水平的利率风险敞口投资者来说，收益率的上升可能提供了一个重返市场的机会。Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示:“我们仓位持有时间较短，并试图回到中性水平，因此在我们看来10年期任何资产的2%水平对我们来说都是合理价值。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}