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2022-06-29

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The world is guessing when the United States will fall into recession, Sister Wood: It has already begun

木头姐认为，供应链问题和通胀，已经将美国经济拖入深渊。

The world is guessing when the United States will fall into recession, Sister Wood: It has already begun

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We think there's a big problem with inventory … I've never seen such a large increase in inventory in my 45-year career. Wood said inflation was higher than she expected due to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks:</p><p>We were wrong about one thing, we didn't realize inflation was going to last so long. The supply chain problem, I can't believe it, has been going on for more than two years, and at that time we did not expect the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Inflation has always been a bigger problem, but it's going to send us into deflation. Wood believes consumers are feeling the rapid rise in prices, which is reflected in sentiment data that fell to record lows. She cited a University of Michigan consumer survey showing that this figure was 50 in June, the lowest level ever.</p><p>U.S. inflation, measured by the consumer price index, rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, the fastest increase since December 1981.</p><p>The market generally believes that 2022 is Wood's Waterloo. In the face of rising interest rates, the fund she manages has emerged as one of the biggest losers this year. Her flagship active fund, the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), is down 52% this year and 66% from its 52-week high.</p><p>Still, Wood said her clients mostly stick to her funds, and new money is pouring in as investors seek to diversify in a depressed market. ARKK's inflows in June have surpassed $180 million, according to FactSet:</p><p>I think the inflows are happening because our clients have been moving away from broad-based benchmark indexes like the Nasdaq 100, and we're fully committed to disruptive innovation. Innovation can solve problems. At present, the mainstream thinking in the market is still that the economic recession is getting closer and closer, but it has not yet arrived.</p><p>The recent crash of multiple macro data in the United States indicates that the U.S. economy is facing the risk of recession. On Monday, the overall corporate activity index of the June Texas Manufacturing Survey released by the Dallas Fed plummeted to-17.7 from-7.3 in May, the lowest point since May 2020. The index value was also far worse than market expectations of-3.1. The preliminary values of Markit manufacturing, service and comprehensive PMI in June in the United States released last week fell across the board, all falling short of expectations. Among them, the manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4, a 23-month low, and the manufacturing output index fell below the boom for the first time in two years. The watershed 50, the service industry and the comprehensive PMI both hit five-month lows.</p><p>Currently, on the one hand, there are concerns about inflation at a 40-year high in the United States, and on the other hand, there are concerns about the slowdown in corporate profit growth, the slowdown or even recession of the overall U.S. economy. Although U.S. stocks have rebounded significantly since mid-June, and the 3.1% increase in the S&P 500 index last Friday was the largest one-day increase in more than two years, investors are still \"scared\", hedge funds are cautious, and many Wall Street analysts believe that the rebound may be short-lived.</p><p>Not only the United States, but also Europe on the other side of the Atlantic is having a hard time. In June, the initial value of the euro zone comprehensive PMI dropped to 51.9, a 16-month low. Among them, the growth of France and Germany, the two economic \"locomotives\", slowed down sharply, and Britain showed signs of economic stagnation.</p><p>At the same time, the market is also facing the aggressive tightening of the Federal Reserve and the looming natural gas crisis in Europe. Therefore, economists are becoming increasingly pessimistic and believe that it is \"increasingly possible\" that Europe and the United States will fall into economic recession, and the risk is rising sharply.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The world is guessing when the United States will fall into recession, Sister Wood: It has already begun</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe world is guessing when the United States will fall into recession, Sister Wood: It has already begun\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-28 23:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Cao Zexi</p><p>While Wall Street bosses are arguing about when the United States will fall into recession, \"Sister Wood\" Cathie Wood believes that the United States has fallen into an economic recession, and she admits that she underestimates the severity and persistence of inflation in the United States.</p><p>Wood says:</p><p>We think we're in a recession. We think there's a big problem with inventory … I've never seen such a large increase in inventory in my 45-year career. Wood said inflation was higher than she expected due to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks:</p><p>We were wrong about one thing, we didn't realize inflation was going to last so long. The supply chain problem, I can't believe it, has been going on for more than two years, and at that time we did not expect the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Inflation has always been a bigger problem, but it's going to send us into deflation. Wood believes consumers are feeling the rapid rise in prices, which is reflected in sentiment data that fell to record lows. She cited a University of Michigan consumer survey showing that this figure was 50 in June, the lowest level ever.</p><p>U.S. inflation, measured by the consumer price index, rose 8.6% year-on-year in May, the fastest increase since December 1981.</p><p>The market generally believes that 2022 is Wood's Waterloo. In the face of rising interest rates, the fund she manages has emerged as one of the biggest losers this year. Her flagship active fund, the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), is down 52% this year and 66% from its 52-week high.</p><p>Still, Wood said her clients mostly stick to her funds, and new money is pouring in as investors seek to diversify in a depressed market. ARKK's inflows in June have surpassed $180 million, according to FactSet:</p><p>I think the inflows are happening because our clients have been moving away from broad-based benchmark indexes like the Nasdaq 100, and we're fully committed to disruptive innovation. Innovation can solve problems. At present, the mainstream thinking in the market is still that the economic recession is getting closer and closer, but it has not yet arrived.</p><p>The recent crash of multiple macro data in the United States indicates that the U.S. economy is facing the risk of recession. On Monday, the overall corporate activity index of the June Texas Manufacturing Survey released by the Dallas Fed plummeted to-17.7 from-7.3 in May, the lowest point since May 2020. The index value was also far worse than market expectations of-3.1. The preliminary values of Markit manufacturing, service and comprehensive PMI in June in the United States released last week fell across the board, all falling short of expectations. Among them, the manufacturing PMI recorded 52.4, a 23-month low, and the manufacturing output index fell below the boom for the first time in two years. The watershed 50, the service industry and the comprehensive PMI both hit five-month lows.</p><p>Currently, on the one hand, there are concerns about inflation at a 40-year high in the United States, and on the other hand, there are concerns about the slowdown in corporate profit growth, the slowdown or even recession of the overall U.S. economy. Although U.S. stocks have rebounded significantly since mid-June, and the 3.1% increase in the S&P 500 index last Friday was the largest one-day increase in more than two years, investors are still \"scared\", hedge funds are cautious, and many Wall Street analysts believe that the rebound may be short-lived.</p><p>Not only the United States, but also Europe on the other side of the Atlantic is having a hard time. In June, the initial value of the euro zone comprehensive PMI dropped to 51.9, a 16-month low. Among them, the growth of France and Germany, the two economic \"locomotives\", slowed down sharply, and Britain showed signs of economic stagnation.</p><p>At the same time, the market is also facing the aggressive tightening of the Federal Reserve and the looming natural gas crisis in Europe. Therefore, economists are becoming increasingly pessimistic and believe that it is \"increasingly possible\" that Europe and the United States will fall into economic recession, and the risk is rising sharply.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663281\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d926776f752c08f272e4ba22a079a81f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663281","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1157047337","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙就在华尔街的大佬们为美国到底什么时候陷入衰退争论不休的时候，“木头姐”Cathie Wood则认为，美国已经陷入经济衰退，她承认自己低估了美国通胀的严重性和持续性。Wood说：我们认为我们正处于衰退之中。我们认为库存存在一个大问题……我45年的职业生涯中从未见过如此大幅度的库存增加。Wood表示，由于供应链中断和地缘政治风险，通胀比她预期的要高：我们在一件事上错了，我们没有意识到通胀会持续这么久。供应链的问题，不敢相信，已经持续了两年多的时间，而那个时候我们还没预料到俄乌冲突。通货膨胀一直是一个更大的问题，但它将让我们陷入通货紧缩。Wood认为，消费者正在感受到价格的快速上涨，这反映在跌至历史低点的情绪数据中。她援引密歇根大学的消费者调查显示，6月份这一数据为50，是有史以来的最低水平。美国以消费者价格指数衡量的通货膨胀率在5月份同比上涨8.6%，是自1981年12月以来的最快涨幅。市场普遍认为，2022年是Wood的滑铁卢。面对利率上升，她管理的基金成为今年以来最大的输家之一。她的旗舰主动基金Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) 今年以来已下跌52%，较52周高点下跌66%。尽管如此，Wood表示，她的客户大多坚持她的基金，随着投资者在低迷的市场中寻求多元化，新资金正在涌入。根据 FactSet的数据，ARKK 6月份的资金流入已超过1.8亿美元：我认为资金流入正在发生，因为我们的客户一直在远离纳斯达克100等基础广泛的基准指数，我们完全致力于颠覆性创新。创新才能解决问题。目前，市场主流的想法依然是，经济衰退已经是越来越近，但是还没有到来。近来美国多个宏观数据崩盘预示着美国经济面临衰退风险。周一达拉斯联储公布的6月得州制造业调查总体企业活动指数从5月的-7.3暴跌至-17.7，创2020年5月以来的最低点，该指数数值也远逊于市场预期的-3.1。上周公布的美国6月Markit制造业、服务业、综合PMI初值全线滑落，均不及预期，其中制造业PMI录得52.4，创23个月新低，制造业产出指数两年来首次跌破荣枯分水岭50，服务业和综合PMI均创5个月新低。当前，一边是对美国处于40年高点通胀的担忧，一边又是企业利润增速放缓、美国整体经济的放缓甚至衰退的担忧。虽然美股自6月中旬以来显著反弹，上周五标普500指数3.1%的涨幅更是创下两年多来的最大单日涨幅，但投资者依旧“惶恐”，对冲基金谨慎，不少华尔街分析师们认为反弹或是短暂的。不止美国，大西洋彼岸的欧洲日子也不好过。6月份欧元区综合PMI初值降至51.9，创下16个月来的低点，其中两个经济“火车头”法国和德国的增长急剧放缓，英国更是显露出经济停滞的信号。与此同时，市场还在同时面对美联储的激进紧缩，以及欧洲日益逼近的天然气危机，因此经济学家愈发悲观，并认为欧美陷入经济衰退“越来越有可能”，风险正在急剧上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2034,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}