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达达K
2022-04-21

Will the two gray rhinos in the Russia-Ukraine conflict take us back to the 1970s?

货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”。

Will the two gray rhinos in the Russia-Ukraine conflict take us back to the 1970s?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":9082631271,"tweetId":"9082631271","gmtCreate":1650556719327,"gmtModify":1676534751635,"author":{"id":3571103870473964,"idStr":"3571103870473964","authorId":3571103870473964,"authorIdStr":"3571103870473964","name":"达达K","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41bafef36a23fb83033bbcab994d18c7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082631271","repostId":2229970689,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2229970689","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1650523697,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2229970689?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-21 14:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Will the two gray rhinos in the Russia-Ukraine conflict take us back to the 1970s?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2229970689","media":"格隆汇","summary":"货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”。","content":"<html><head></head><body>Today I want to share with you three parts: the first is a review of the main lines of the global market since the beginning of the year, the second is the two gray rhinos we have seen in the global financial system after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the third is in such a situation. Under the external environment, China's impact and response.<h3>1. Global financial markets: Monetary tightening is intertwined with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed \"walks a tightrope\"</h3>Judging from the performance of the global financial market, from the beginning of the year to the middle and late February, stocks and bonds in the market were double killed, reflecting the impact of the tightening of the Federal Reserve; After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the market began to reflect the warming of short-term risk aversion and the concern of medium-term stagflation; Since mid-to-late March, after the situation in Russia and Ukraine has entered a state of anxiety, the market has refocused on the impact of the Fed's rapid tightening. Considering that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine issue on the global economy and financial system may continue-which we will discuss further later-these two main lines are expected to interweave and affect the market in the later period.As far as the Fed policy is concerned, if the additional sudden shocks brought by Russia and Ukraine are not taken into account, the core inflation in the United States should have shown signs of peaking year-on-year growth in the near future, and the core PCE is expected to gradually fall back to around 3% by the end of the year. But even so, it's still significantly higher than the Fed's inflation target.The more you look back, the more the Fed may be in a state of walking a tightrope: on the one hand, the important reason why the current market is optimistic about the U.S. economy is based on the healthy balance sheet of residents in the United States-which is inseparable from the previous bull market of U.S. stocks. If monetary tightening triggers continued turmoil in the United States and thus impacts residents' net assets, the downward pressure from the demand side will increase; On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, inflation expectations and actual inflation levels remain high. Therefore, in the future stage, the Fed's policy may need to find a fragile balance between \"stabilizing the stock market\" and \"controlling inflation\": the marginal adjustment of the overall policy largely depends on its response to the market, and the overall monetary policy The space for policy is obviously narrowed compared with the previous period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da00c449c8c74fec4a398395e6212ada\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h3>2. The first gray rhinoceros under the Russia-Ukraine conflict: commodities</h3>Recently, the energy supply shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has begun to affect public opinion in the United States and Europe through inflation, which is in turn reflected in the domestic political trends in the United States and Europe.In the third quarter of 2021, the Biden administration's domestic policy clearly shifted to controlling inflation and putting pressure on the Federal Reserve. This is closely related to public dissatisfaction with rising prices, which in turn led to a decline in its support rate. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the support gap between French far-right candidates Le Pen and Macron narrowed rapidly, which also reflected that the focus of European people began to shift from supporting Ukraine to rising domestic living costs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1a78a5c9eac2be9dc9134648bb27a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In fact, the supply impact under the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not limited to energy, but may have a more far-reaching impact on food.Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of grain and fertilizer in the world: taking wheat as an example, at least 30% of the world's wheat imports from nearly 50 economies in the world come from Russia and Ukraine, among which Eastern Europe, South Asia, North and West Africa, and South America are particularly dependent on them. Outstanding, the disruption of food and fertilizer supplies caused by wars and sanctions has significantly increased the risk of frequent local food crises.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5b57f936cef2a655fce4270a79d509\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Looking further, food and energy may also become geopolitical bargaining chips, exacerbating anti-globalization.Judging from the results of the United Nations vote on the suspension of Russia's membership in the Human Rights Council on April 7, there were 93 votes in favor vs. 82 votes against and 82 votes abstained, reflecting a typical binary differentiation. Behind this, there are not only existing political positions, but also Russia's influential factors in markets such as food, fertilizer and energy. If supply shortages continue in the future, it cannot be ruled out that the diplomatic attitudes and domestic political situations of relevant economies may also be disturbed-especially considering that the United States is also the world's major exporter of energy and food, which may become a bargaining chip at the political game level. The recent political turmoil in South American economies such as Peru and Brazil may all reflect this.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10f2d211bb719327bd3611340c168be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The recent market trends in some emerging markets reflect that the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine issue may already be occurring, including the obvious recovery of CDS in major South American economies, and the recent significant correction in Latin American emerging market stock markets, all of which suggest that we need to pay attention to the potential vulnerabilities of emerging markets. On the one hand, it is the defensive ability against the Fed's tightening in the traditional sense, including its dependence on foreign capital in domestic stocks and bonds, the proportion of foreign debt and solvency. On the other hand, if subsequent sanctions against Russia continue, economies with relatively close geographical relations with the United States may still be able to alleviate Russia's supply shortage in the short term by purchasing food and energy from the United States, but economies with relatively less close international relations with the United States may be happy to see its economy in trouble. I think this is the first issue we need to pay attention to.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cd043df655e5eaf53e0fd3635e689f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Taken together, the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity markets may affect the internal political and diplomatic strategies of multiple economies. From the perspective of globalization, related necessities have become important bargaining chips in diplomacy, which may lead to further tearing of the global economic and trade system. This is the first gray rhinoceros that needs attention.<h3>3. The second gray rhinoceros under the Russia-Ukraine conflict: the international monetary and financial system</h3>We need to closely track the impact of \"sanctions\" and \"counter-sanctions\" measures on the global financial and monetary system.Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy, but the appreciation of the broad nominal effective exchange rate of the US dollar is far lower than that of the US Dollar Index. In other words, the appreciation of the US dollar this year is more obvious than that of Japan and Europe, but for the world's major economies including emerging markets in a broader sense, the appreciation rate is not obvious. Historically, when the Fed tightened its monetary policy, we tended to be more worried about the impact of capital outflows from emerging markets caused by the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. Why is it different this time? We believe that the possible reason behind this is that the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia have begun to cause many economies, central banks, and investors to begin to rethink the security of the US dollar system.Whether it is SWIFT sanctions or other trade finance and personal sanctions, as well as Russia's recent financial counter-sanctions, everyone has begun to think about the safety of US dollar assets. When geopolitical conflicts come, investors find that the original financial rules can cease to exist overnight. This concern may have begun to shake investors' confidence in the current global financial system dominated by the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a2ec7d4ef5fe940c84ce4dc87753d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>We need to pay attention to the impact of the resonance between the two gray rhinos-the risk of repeating the economic and financial turmoil of 1970s is on the rise.Many people attribute the stagflation in the 1970s to the oil crisis under the energy supply problem, but before the energy crisis, the decoupling of the US dollar and gold in 1971 may be a more important background. After the Nixon shock, the anchor of currency pricing disappeared, which led to an increase in the prices of a large number of physical commodities priced in paper currencies. Superimposed on the impact of the oil crisis, the Great Inflation of the 1970s was formed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ec56032830c41b0a01dcd5deac1c203\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The sanctions and counter-sanctions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have triggered market concerns about the monetary systems of major developed economies such as the US dollar and the Japanese yen. On this basis, whether the shortage of energy and food-all necessities-caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will bring us into a very turbulent environment again is the gray rhinoceros that needs attention at present. Of course, the reason why it is called gray rhinoceros is that these rhinoceros may not rush over, but if these two problems superimpose and resonate at the same time, the impact on the financial market and economy may be enormous.<h3>4. Impact on China: The direct impact is not large, pay attention to the secondary impact</h3>First of all, in terms of direct impact, the food problem has little impact on China.Among the three staple foods, China's rice supply is sufficient and its inventory is high; In terms of wheat, Russia is the largest exporter of wheat, and China's wheat import pressure is not great and there are still stocks; There is a certain gap in corn, and 50% of the supply comes from Ukraine, but the substitutability of corn is high. Therefore, on the whole, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has little direct impact on China at the staple food level. This is also due to the central government's policy that \"the Chinese people's rice bowls must be in their own hands\" that has been said for many years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4845d3e9bddc107c8fed6b158f5825\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But what we need to pay more attention to is the secondary impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that is, when two gray rhinos are superimposed, the global trading system may become more fragmented.Therefore, both the United States and Russia may largely use necessities such as food, energy, and fertilizers as a bargaining \"chip\" in geopolitics, which may mean that China is facing intensified anti-globalization.<h3>5. China's response to the more severe external situation</h3>China's economy has previously benefited from global economic and trade integration, so if the anti-globalization process accelerates in the future, China's exports will face greater potential uncertainty. In addition to the contraction of terminal demand, the U.S. economic and trade suppression of China is also a risk that needs attention.In the new version of the U.S. supply chain report in February this year, not only the \"stuck\" industries were discussed, but also the industries related to the Russia-Ukraine dispute, involving my country's information technology, energy, national defense, food and other industries. Previously, the U.S. policy towards China's supply chain mainly focused on \"stuck\" information technology. Now, the U.S. may introduce policies targeting energy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Industrial policies to further suppress China.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c929359ec4352004739defcf2b2b47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Therefore, looking forward, China will face a more severe external situation. We believe that China's response ideas are mainly based on two main lines.First, China will put more emphasis on doing its own thing well. Under the impact of many uncertainties in the external circulation, the potential of China's huge market is the most important basic market of China's economy.Second, China will put more emphasis on stabilizing and strengthening economic and trade relations with neighboring economies, and build a safety cushion.The Russia-Ukraine issue broke out in Europe, and in various bills against Russia recently initiated by the United Nations, China's neighboring economies-including Southeast Asia and South Asia-either voted against it or abstained from voting. Obviously, it reflects the attitude of these economies that they want peace and do not want the situation to expand-let alone the conflict to spread to Asia. China is surrounded by our largest trading partner, the European Union, and South Asia has India, the largest populous country except China. At the same time, the economic and trade relations between China and East Asian countries are also extremely close. If the economic and trade relations of relevant economies can be stabilized and strengthened, it will help to form a \"cushion\" for China's economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8d7fd23a8f20bb6fe19f794e17038f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h3>6. RMB in the turbulent global financial system: Talking about the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States</h3>In the past, when the interest rate differential between China and the United States narrowed, the market would be worried about the pressure of large-scale capital outflows, but this time the negative interest rate differential between China and the United States did not cause the expected capital outflow. Even when the Russia-Ukraine issue broke out and the Federal Reserve tightened from February to March this year, the RMB remained strong against the US dollar. This may mean that RMB assets have become an important choice for investors to hedge risks against the background of investors' increasing concerns about the existing global financial system. If you consider: 1) the previous allocation ratio of investors to RMB financial assets was low; 2) Against the background of the \"dualization\" of the global economic and trade system in the future, it is actually reasonable for the RMB to strengthen relative to the US dollar. If \"hedging\" becomes the main line of the exchange rate market, whether the interest rate spread is upside down will not be enough to affect the trend of the exchange rate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1124e2b8a76f2202167c2c418ac6f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h3>7. Summary</h3>First of all, the spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the commodity supply side means that in the future stage, the world will show a high incidence of local food crises, and food and energy will also become important bargaining chips in the geopolitical game, further negatively affecting globalization.Secondly, the sanctions and counter-sanctions around the United States, Europe and Russia have made investors more worried about the global monetary and financial system.Most importantly, the resonance of the above two gray rhinos triggered great turmoil in the global economy and financial market in the 1970s, and also affected the global pattern in the following decades. Therefore, when the current external environment is severe, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the resonance between the US dollar and commodities.Risk warning: Stagflation risks in the United States and Europe exceed expectations, debt risks in emerging markets exceed expectations, and geopolitical risks exceed expectations.</body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the two gray rhinos in the Russia-Ukraine conflict take us back to the 1970s?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the two gray rhinos in the Russia-Ukraine conflict take us back to the 1970s?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n格隆汇2022-04-21 14:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Today I want to share with you three parts: the first is a review of the main lines of the global market since the beginning of the year, the second is the two gray rhinos we have seen in the global financial system after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the third is in such a situation. Under the external environment, China's impact and response.<h3>1. Global financial markets: Monetary tightening is intertwined with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed \"walks a tightrope\"</h3>Judging from the performance of the global financial market, from the beginning of the year to the middle and late February, stocks and bonds in the market were double killed, reflecting the impact of the tightening of the Federal Reserve; After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the market began to reflect the warming of short-term risk aversion and the concern of medium-term stagflation; Since mid-to-late March, after the situation in Russia and Ukraine has entered a state of anxiety, the market has refocused on the impact of the Fed's rapid tightening. Considering that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine issue on the global economy and financial system may continue-which we will discuss further later-these two main lines are expected to interweave and affect the market in the later period.As far as the Fed policy is concerned, if the additional sudden shocks brought by Russia and Ukraine are not taken into account, the core inflation in the United States should have shown signs of peaking year-on-year growth in the near future, and the core PCE is expected to gradually fall back to around 3% by the end of the year. But even so, it's still significantly higher than the Fed's inflation target.The more you look back, the more the Fed may be in a state of walking a tightrope: on the one hand, the important reason why the current market is optimistic about the U.S. economy is based on the healthy balance sheet of residents in the United States-which is inseparable from the previous bull market of U.S. stocks. If monetary tightening triggers continued turmoil in the United States and thus impacts residents' net assets, the downward pressure from the demand side will increase; On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, inflation expectations and actual inflation levels remain high. Therefore, in the future stage, the Fed's policy may need to find a fragile balance between \"stabilizing the stock market\" and \"controlling inflation\": the marginal adjustment of the overall policy largely depends on its response to the market, and the overall monetary policy The space for policy is obviously narrowed compared with the previous period.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da00c449c8c74fec4a398395e6212ada\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h3>2. The first gray rhinoceros under the Russia-Ukraine conflict: commodities</h3>Recently, the energy supply shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has begun to affect public opinion in the United States and Europe through inflation, which is in turn reflected in the domestic political trends in the United States and Europe.In the third quarter of 2021, the Biden administration's domestic policy clearly shifted to controlling inflation and putting pressure on the Federal Reserve. This is closely related to public dissatisfaction with rising prices, which in turn led to a decline in its support rate. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the support gap between French far-right candidates Le Pen and Macron narrowed rapidly, which also reflected that the focus of European people began to shift from supporting Ukraine to rising domestic living costs.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c1a78a5c9eac2be9dc9134648bb27a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>In fact, the supply impact under the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not limited to energy, but may have a more far-reaching impact on food.Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of grain and fertilizer in the world: taking wheat as an example, at least 30% of the world's wheat imports from nearly 50 economies in the world come from Russia and Ukraine, among which Eastern Europe, South Asia, North and West Africa, and South America are particularly dependent on them. Outstanding, the disruption of food and fertilizer supplies caused by wars and sanctions has significantly increased the risk of frequent local food crises.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e5b57f936cef2a655fce4270a79d509\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Looking further, food and energy may also become geopolitical bargaining chips, exacerbating anti-globalization.Judging from the results of the United Nations vote on the suspension of Russia's membership in the Human Rights Council on April 7, there were 93 votes in favor vs. 82 votes against and 82 votes abstained, reflecting a typical binary differentiation. Behind this, there are not only existing political positions, but also Russia's influential factors in markets such as food, fertilizer and energy. If supply shortages continue in the future, it cannot be ruled out that the diplomatic attitudes and domestic political situations of relevant economies may also be disturbed-especially considering that the United States is also the world's major exporter of energy and food, which may become a bargaining chip at the political game level. The recent political turmoil in South American economies such as Peru and Brazil may all reflect this.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10f2d211bb719327bd3611340c168be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The recent market trends in some emerging markets reflect that the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine issue may already be occurring, including the obvious recovery of CDS in major South American economies, and the recent significant correction in Latin American emerging market stock markets, all of which suggest that we need to pay attention to the potential vulnerabilities of emerging markets. On the one hand, it is the defensive ability against the Fed's tightening in the traditional sense, including its dependence on foreign capital in domestic stocks and bonds, the proportion of foreign debt and solvency. On the other hand, if subsequent sanctions against Russia continue, economies with relatively close geographical relations with the United States may still be able to alleviate Russia's supply shortage in the short term by purchasing food and energy from the United States, but economies with relatively less close international relations with the United States may be happy to see its economy in trouble. I think this is the first issue we need to pay attention to.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cd043df655e5eaf53e0fd3635e689f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Taken together, the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity markets may affect the internal political and diplomatic strategies of multiple economies. From the perspective of globalization, related necessities have become important bargaining chips in diplomacy, which may lead to further tearing of the global economic and trade system. This is the first gray rhinoceros that needs attention.<h3>3. The second gray rhinoceros under the Russia-Ukraine conflict: the international monetary and financial system</h3>We need to closely track the impact of \"sanctions\" and \"counter-sanctions\" measures on the global financial and monetary system.Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy, but the appreciation of the broad nominal effective exchange rate of the US dollar is far lower than that of the US Dollar Index. In other words, the appreciation of the US dollar this year is more obvious than that of Japan and Europe, but for the world's major economies including emerging markets in a broader sense, the appreciation rate is not obvious. Historically, when the Fed tightened its monetary policy, we tended to be more worried about the impact of capital outflows from emerging markets caused by the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. Why is it different this time? We believe that the possible reason behind this is that the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia have begun to cause many economies, central banks, and investors to begin to rethink the security of the US dollar system.Whether it is SWIFT sanctions or other trade finance and personal sanctions, as well as Russia's recent financial counter-sanctions, everyone has begun to think about the safety of US dollar assets. When geopolitical conflicts come, investors find that the original financial rules can cease to exist overnight. This concern may have begun to shake investors' confidence in the current global financial system dominated by the US dollar.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e89a2ec7d4ef5fe940c84ce4dc87753d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>We need to pay attention to the impact of the resonance between the two gray rhinos-the risk of repeating the economic and financial turmoil of 1970s is on the rise.Many people attribute the stagflation in the 1970s to the oil crisis under the energy supply problem, but before the energy crisis, the decoupling of the US dollar and gold in 1971 may be a more important background. After the Nixon shock, the anchor of currency pricing disappeared, which led to an increase in the prices of a large number of physical commodities priced in paper currencies. Superimposed on the impact of the oil crisis, the Great Inflation of the 1970s was formed.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ec56032830c41b0a01dcd5deac1c203\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The sanctions and counter-sanctions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have triggered market concerns about the monetary systems of major developed economies such as the US dollar and the Japanese yen. On this basis, whether the shortage of energy and food-all necessities-caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will bring us into a very turbulent environment again is the gray rhinoceros that needs attention at present. Of course, the reason why it is called gray rhinoceros is that these rhinoceros may not rush over, but if these two problems superimpose and resonate at the same time, the impact on the financial market and economy may be enormous.<h3>4. Impact on China: The direct impact is not large, pay attention to the secondary impact</h3>First of all, in terms of direct impact, the food problem has little impact on China.Among the three staple foods, China's rice supply is sufficient and its inventory is high; In terms of wheat, Russia is the largest exporter of wheat, and China's wheat import pressure is not great and there are still stocks; There is a certain gap in corn, and 50% of the supply comes from Ukraine, but the substitutability of corn is high. Therefore, on the whole, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has little direct impact on China at the staple food level. This is also due to the central government's policy that \"the Chinese people's rice bowls must be in their own hands\" that has been said for many years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a4845d3e9bddc107c8fed6b158f5825\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>But what we need to pay more attention to is the secondary impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that is, when two gray rhinos are superimposed, the global trading system may become more fragmented.Therefore, both the United States and Russia may largely use necessities such as food, energy, and fertilizers as a bargaining \"chip\" in geopolitics, which may mean that China is facing intensified anti-globalization.<h3>5. China's response to the more severe external situation</h3>China's economy has previously benefited from global economic and trade integration, so if the anti-globalization process accelerates in the future, China's exports will face greater potential uncertainty. In addition to the contraction of terminal demand, the U.S. economic and trade suppression of China is also a risk that needs attention.In the new version of the U.S. supply chain report in February this year, not only the \"stuck\" industries were discussed, but also the industries related to the Russia-Ukraine dispute, involving my country's information technology, energy, national defense, food and other industries. Previously, the U.S. policy towards China's supply chain mainly focused on \"stuck\" information technology. Now, the U.S. may introduce policies targeting energy,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Industrial policies to further suppress China.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c929359ec4352004739defcf2b2b47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Therefore, looking forward, China will face a more severe external situation. We believe that China's response ideas are mainly based on two main lines.First, China will put more emphasis on doing its own thing well. Under the impact of many uncertainties in the external circulation, the potential of China's huge market is the most important basic market of China's economy.Second, China will put more emphasis on stabilizing and strengthening economic and trade relations with neighboring economies, and build a safety cushion.The Russia-Ukraine issue broke out in Europe, and in various bills against Russia recently initiated by the United Nations, China's neighboring economies-including Southeast Asia and South Asia-either voted against it or abstained from voting. Obviously, it reflects the attitude of these economies that they want peace and do not want the situation to expand-let alone the conflict to spread to Asia. China is surrounded by our largest trading partner, the European Union, and South Asia has India, the largest populous country except China. At the same time, the economic and trade relations between China and East Asian countries are also extremely close. If the economic and trade relations of relevant economies can be stabilized and strengthened, it will help to form a \"cushion\" for China's economy.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c8d7fd23a8f20bb6fe19f794e17038f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h3>6. RMB in the turbulent global financial system: Talking about the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States</h3>In the past, when the interest rate differential between China and the United States narrowed, the market would be worried about the pressure of large-scale capital outflows, but this time the negative interest rate differential between China and the United States did not cause the expected capital outflow. Even when the Russia-Ukraine issue broke out and the Federal Reserve tightened from February to March this year, the RMB remained strong against the US dollar. This may mean that RMB assets have become an important choice for investors to hedge risks against the background of investors' increasing concerns about the existing global financial system. If you consider: 1) the previous allocation ratio of investors to RMB financial assets was low; 2) Against the background of the \"dualization\" of the global economic and trade system in the future, it is actually reasonable for the RMB to strengthen relative to the US dollar. If \"hedging\" becomes the main line of the exchange rate market, whether the interest rate spread is upside down will not be enough to affect the trend of the exchange rate.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1124e2b8a76f2202167c2c418ac6f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><h3>7. Summary</h3>First of all, the spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the commodity supply side means that in the future stage, the world will show a high incidence of local food crises, and food and energy will also become important bargaining chips in the geopolitical game, further negatively affecting globalization.Secondly, the sanctions and counter-sanctions around the United States, Europe and Russia have made investors more worried about the global monetary and financial system.Most importantly, the resonance of the above two gray rhinos triggered great turmoil in the global economy and financial market in the 1970s, and also affected the global pattern in the following decades. Therefore, when the current external environment is severe, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the resonance between the US dollar and commodities.Risk warning: Stagflation risks in the United States and Europe exceed expectations, debt risks in emerging markets exceed expectations, and geopolitical risks exceed expectations.</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627\">格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c82cf7967acddafade766f6f5c3a53","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/522627","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2229970689","content_text":"今天我想和大家分享三部分的内容：第一是对年初以来全球市场主线的回顾，第二是俄乌冲突后我们在全球金融体系里看到的两只灰犀牛，第三是在这样的外部环境下，中国受到的影响和应对。一、全球金融市场：货币紧缩与俄乌冲突交织，联储“走钢丝”从全球金融市场的表现来看，年初至2月中下旬前市场股债双杀，体现联储收紧的冲击；俄乌战争爆发后，市场开始反映短期避险的升温和中期滞胀的担忧；3月中下旬以来，俄乌局势进入焦灼状态后，市场重新关注联储快速紧缩的影响。考虑到俄乌问题对全球经济和金融体系的影响可能较为延续——我们之后会进一步讨论——后期这两条主线预期还会交织影响市场。就联储政策而言，如果不考虑俄乌后续带来的额外突发冲击，美国核心通胀近期应已出现同比增速见顶迹象，核心PCE预期在年底逐步回落至3%附近。但即便如此，这仍然显著高于联储通胀目标。越往后看，联储可能越会处于一个走钢丝的状态：一方面，当前市场对美国经济乐观的重要原因是基于美国尚且健康的居民资产负债表——这与此前美股的牛市密不可分，如果货币收紧引发美国持续动荡进而冲击居民净资产，则来自需求端下行压力将加大；另一方面，如前所述，通胀预期及实际通胀水平仍然处在高位。所以在未来的一个阶段，联储政策可能需要在“稳股市”和“控通胀”这两者间找一个脆弱的平衡：整体政策的边际调整，很大程度上取决于其对市场的反应，整体货币政策的空间相对前期而言是明显收窄的。二、俄乌冲突下的第一只灰犀牛：商品近期，俄乌冲突带来的能源供应短缺，已经开始通过通胀影响美欧的民意，进而体现在美欧国内政治走势上。拜登政府对内政策在2021年三季度明确转向控通胀并对联储施压，这与民众对价格上涨的不满、进而导致其支持率下滑密切相关。俄乌冲突爆发后，法国极右翼候选人勒庞与马克龙的支持率缺口快速收窄，也体现了，欧洲民众的关注点开始从支持乌克兰转移到国内生活成本抬高上。实际上，俄乌问题冲突下的供应冲击并不仅限于能源，影响更为深远的可能是粮食。俄罗斯和乌克兰是世界上重要的粮食和化肥出口国：以小麦为例，全球接近50个经济体全球至少 30%的小麦进口来自俄乌，其中东欧、南亚、北西非、南美对其的依赖尤为突出，由于战争及制裁导致的粮食和化肥供应中断，使得局部粮食危机频发的风险显著抬升。进一步来看，粮食和能源可能还会成为地缘政治上的博弈筹码，加剧逆全球化。从4月7日联合国对暂停俄罗斯在人权理事会成员资格的投票结果来看，赞成93票vs反对及弃权82票，体现出比较典型的二元分化，这背后除了有既有政治立场之外，也有粮食、化肥、能源等市场上俄罗斯的影响力因素。如果未来供应持续短缺，则不排除相关经济体的外交表态和国内政局可能也会受到扰动——尤其考虑美国也是全球主要的能源和粮食的出口国，这可能会成为政治博弈层面讨价还价的筹码，近期在秘鲁、巴西等南美洲经济体发生的政治动荡，可能都映射了这一点。近期部分新兴市场的市场走势，体现俄乌问题的溢出效应可能已经在发生，包括南美主要经济体CDS明显回升，拉美新兴市场股市近期显著回调，这都提示我们需要关注新兴市场潜在脆弱性。一方面，是传统意义上对联储收紧的防御能力，包括其国内股债对外资的依赖度、外债占比及偿付能力等。另一方面，如果后续对俄制裁延续，与美国地缘关系较为亲近的经济体或尚能通过向美国购买粮食和能源短期缓解俄罗斯供应短缺，但与美国国际关系相对不那么紧密的经济体，美国可能乐见其经济陷入窘境，我觉得这是第一个我们需要关注的问题。综合来说，俄乌战争对商品市场的溢出效应，其影响范围可能会波及多个经济体的内部政治和外交战略。而从全球化的角度来说，相关必需品成为外交中的重要筹码，又可能会导致全球经贸体系进一步的撕裂，这是需要注意的第一只灰犀牛。三、俄乌冲突下的第二只灰犀牛：国际货币金融体系我们需要密切跟踪“制裁”与“反制裁”举措对全球金融货币体系的影响。今年年初以来美联储一直在进行货币政策的收紧，但美元广义名义有效汇率的升值幅度是远低于美元指数的。也就是说，美元今年的升值相对于日本、欧洲这经济体更明显，而对于更广义的包括新兴市场在内的全球主要的经济体来讲，升值幅度并不明显。历史上来看，当美联储货币政策收紧时，我们往往更加担心美联储的货币政策收紧所导致的新兴市场的资金流出的冲击。这次为什么不一样？我们认为背后可能的原因，就是美欧对于俄罗斯的制裁开始引发很多经济体、央行、投资者开始重新去思考美元体系安全性的问题。不论是SWIFT制裁还是其他贸易金融和个人制裁，以及俄罗斯近期在金融方面的反制裁，都使得大家开始思考美元资产的安全性。在地缘冲突来临之时，投资者发现原本的金融规则可以一夜之间不复存在。这种担忧，可能已经开始动摇投资者对于当前以美元为主的全球金融体系的信心。需关注两只灰犀牛共振的影响——重演1970年代经济金融动荡的风险在上升。很多人把70年代的滞胀归结于能源供应问题下的石油危机，但是能源危机之前，1971年美元和黄金的脱钩可能是更重要的背景。尼克松冲击后，货币定价的锚消失了，导致以纸币定价的大量实物商品价格上升，叠加石油危机的冲击，才形成了70年代的大通胀。围绕俄乌冲突的制裁与反制裁，引发市场对美元、日元等主要发达经济体货币体系的忧虑。在此基础上，俄乌冲突导致的能源粮食——这都是必需品——的短缺，是否会使我们再次进入到一个非常动荡的环境，是当前需要关注的灰犀牛。当然之所以它叫灰犀牛，就是这些犀牛它不一定会冲过来，但是如果这两个问题同时发生叠加共振的话，对于金融市场和经济的冲击可能是非常巨大的。四、对中国的影响：直接冲击不大，关注次生影响首先直接冲击来讲的话，粮食的问题对于中国来说影响不大。三大主粮里面，中国大米供给充足，库存量高；小麦来看，俄罗斯是小麦的第一大出口国，中国小麦的进口压力不大且还有库存；玉米有一定程度的缺口，而且有50%的供应是来自于乌克兰，但玉米的可替代性高。所以整体的来讲的话，主粮层面上俄乌冲突对中国的直接影响不大，这一点也是受益于过去很多年中央一直说的“中国人的饭碗要端在自己手里”的政策。但是我们更需要关注的是俄乌冲突的次生影响，也就是两只灰犀牛叠加的情况下，全球贸易体系可能会更加碎片化。因此，无论是美国还是俄罗斯，可能都会很大程度上把粮食、能源、化肥这些必需品作为地缘政治上站队的一个讨价还价的“筹码”，这可能会意味着中国所面临的逆全球化加剧。五、更严峻的外部形势下，中国的应对此前中国经济受益于全球经贸一体化，因此如果未来逆全球化进程加速，中国出口将面临较大的潜在不确定性。除了终端需求收缩外，美国对华的经贸打压也是需要关注的风险。今年2月美国新一版的供应链报告中，不仅讨论了“卡脖子”的产业，也讨论了对俄乌争端相关的产业，涉及我国信息技术、能源、国防、食品等多个行业。之前，美国对于中国供应链的政策主要围绕“卡脖子”的信息技术上，那么现在，美国可能会出台针对能源、农产品的产业政策来进一步打压中国。所以往后看，中国将面临更严峻的外部形势，我们认为中国的应对思路主要是两条主线。第一、中国将更强调做好自己的事。在外循环面临众多不确定性的冲击下，中国巨大市场的潜能是中国经济最重要的基本盘。第二、中国将更强调稳定、加强与周边经济体的经贸关系，构建一个安全垫。俄乌问题爆发在欧洲，而在最近联合国发起的各种针对俄罗斯的议案中，中国周边的经济体--包括东南亚、南亚等--不是投了反对票，就是弃权票。显然，体现了这些经济体希望和平、不希望事态扩大--更不希望冲突蔓延到亚洲的态度。中国周边有我们的第一大贸易伙伴欧盟，南亚又有除中国外最大的人口国家印度，同时中国与东亚各国的经贸关系也极为密切，如果能够稳定并加强相关经济体的经贸关系，将有助于形成中国经济的“缓冲垫”。六、动荡的全球金融体系中的人民币：谈谈中美利差倒挂的问题过去中美利差收窄时，市场会担心大规模的资金流出压力，但这次中美利差的转负并没有引起预期中的资金流出。甚至，在今年2到3月间俄乌问题爆发、美联储收紧时，人民币对美元一直保持强势。这可能意味着投资者对现有全球金融体系担忧程度上升背景下，人民币资产成为投资者对冲风险的一个重要选择。如果考虑到：1）此前投资者对人民币金融资产配置比例较低；2）未来全球经贸体系“二元化”的背景，则人民币相对美元走强其实具有一定的合理性。如果“对冲”成为汇率市场的主线，则利差是否倒挂也就不足以影响汇率的走势了。七、总结首先，俄乌冲突在商品供给端的溢出效应，意味着未来一阶段，全球会呈现局部粮食危机高发的状态，而粮食和能源也将成为地缘政治博弈中的重要筹码，进一步对全球化产生负面影响。其次，围绕美欧俄的制裁与反制裁，使得投资者对于全球货币金融体系的担忧程度上升。最重要的是，上述两只灰犀牛的共振，在1970年代引发了全球经济、金融市场大动荡，也影响了后续几十年的全球格局。因此，当前外部环境严峻时，我们需要持续去关注美元和商品共振所造成的影响。风险提示：美欧滞胀风险超预期，新兴市场债务风险超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2022,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}