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Jacklyn26
2022-08-06

Non-farm payrolls are strong, and the logic of U.S. stocks' surge in July is really over this time?

强劲的非农打乱了市场对美联储转鸽拐点将至的叙述。

Non-farm payrolls are strong, and the logic of U.S. stocks' surge in July is really over this time?

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Some analysts even shouted that the bear market rebound in U.S. stocks was over! Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the non-agricultural industry in July exceeded expectations. The total number of new jobs and the unemployment rate both returned to the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States in February 2020. 528,000 new jobs were created, even higher than the market expectation of 250,000. double.Faced with such a strong labor market, violent rate hike expectations have rekindled, and the Fed's September rate hike expectation of 75 basis points has been greatly boosted.Under the expectation of aggressive rate hike, U.S. stocks turned down, the S&P was negative for two consecutive days, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.5%; U.S. bond yields soared, with the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield curves inverted the most in two decades; The US Dollar Index pulled higher, hitting a new high in more than a week.In recent weeks, the market has begun to bet that in the face of the recession haze, the Fed will soon \"give in\" and \"turn\" on the path of tightening. As a result, risk assets started a wave of rebound, with U.S. stocks soaring and U.S. bond yields plummeting.In the face of strong non-farm payrolls, the previous \"recession trading\" seems to be beginning to become untenable, and some analysts shouted that the bear market rebound in the US stock market is over!Fed officials \"bomb indiscriminately\" the market is still carnivalAfter the second rate hike of 75 basis points in July, a big war began between the market and the Federal Reserve. Even though the Federal Reserve sent the strongest tightening signal in decades, the market still \"went its own way\" and even helped U.S. stocks set their best performance in recent years.This week, the Federal Reserve sent one official after another to start a wheel war. They directly \"bombed\" the market and loudly \"released hawks\".San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the Fed is still far from the end of fighting inflation. If the labor market still shows no signs of slowing down, another 75 basis point rate hike may be more appropriate; Cleveland Fed President Mester pointed out that there is no convincing evidence that U.S. inflation has peaked, and the FOMC's July rate hike will not be lower than that in June; The dovish San Francisco Fed president said there is still a long way to go to solve high inflation.However, the market did not buy it and bet that in the face of the haze of recession, the Federal Reserve will soon turn on the path of tightening, and will start cutting interest rates as soon as the September meeting. Guided by this expectation, asset prices began to soar, U.S. stocks soared, and U.S. bond yields plummeted.Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management, said:The market seems to be saying to the Fed that you don't have to go as far as you want, and that you may start to reverse course at a faster pace, but is that sustainable in the face of a Fed that seems determined to fight inflation? Unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls'recession trade 'logic at riskWhen the market was rejoicing that they had won this game, Friday's non-farm payrolls report gave it a slap in the face.Both job growth and wage growth far exceeded economists' forecasts, and the U.S. economy has not cooled as quickly as markets thought.\"Good news for the economy is bad news for the market.\" Employment data that is positive for the economy may not support market confidence that U.S. stocks will continue to rebound. Some analysts pointed out that the rise in U.S. bond yields may indicate that the logic of \"recession trading\" may soon change, and the bear market rebound in U.S. stocks will end.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 2.838%, up from 2.674% on Thursday, according to Tradeweb data. Still, it's well below its 2022 peak of 3.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at Investment Management Company (Pimco), said:The unanimous rally in stocks and bonds \"feels a bit premature,\" but investors no longer seem to believe in the Fed's ability to curb inflation, spooking investors when the 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed to 3% in the spring, but a higher yield may be needed next time.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said non-farm payrolls \"really disrupted the market's narrative of the Fed's dove turning point approaching\" and were \"very unfriendly to financial markets.\"John Lynch, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management, said bluntly:\"We believe this development marks the end of the recent bear market rally in U.S. stocks. A main driver of the previous rise in U.S. stocks was investors' hope that the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive in the future, which pushed growth and technology stocks higher.\"</body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm payrolls are strong, and the logic of U.S. stocks' surge in July is really over this time?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm payrolls are strong, and the logic of U.S. stocks' surge in July is really over this time?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2022-08-06 11:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>The strong non-farm payrolls disrupted the market's narrative that the turning point of the Fed's dove turn was approaching, and the logic of \"recession trading\" was at risk. Some analysts even shouted that the bear market rebound in U.S. stocks was over! Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the non-agricultural industry in July exceeded expectations. The total number of new jobs and the unemployment rate both returned to the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States in February 2020. 528,000 new jobs were created, even higher than the market expectation of 250,000. double.Faced with such a strong labor market, violent rate hike expectations have rekindled, and the Fed's September rate hike expectation of 75 basis points has been greatly boosted.Under the expectation of aggressive rate hike, U.S. stocks turned down, the S&P was negative for two consecutive days, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.5%; U.S. bond yields soared, with the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yield curves inverted the most in two decades; The US Dollar Index pulled higher, hitting a new high in more than a week.In recent weeks, the market has begun to bet that in the face of the recession haze, the Fed will soon \"give in\" and \"turn\" on the path of tightening. As a result, risk assets started a wave of rebound, with U.S. stocks soaring and U.S. bond yields plummeting.In the face of strong non-farm payrolls, the previous \"recession trading\" seems to be beginning to become untenable, and some analysts shouted that the bear market rebound in the US stock market is over!Fed officials \"bomb indiscriminately\" the market is still carnivalAfter the second rate hike of 75 basis points in July, a big war began between the market and the Federal Reserve. Even though the Federal Reserve sent the strongest tightening signal in decades, the market still \"went its own way\" and even helped U.S. stocks set their best performance in recent years.This week, the Federal Reserve sent one official after another to start a wheel war. They directly \"bombed\" the market and loudly \"released hawks\".San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the Fed is still far from the end of fighting inflation. If the labor market still shows no signs of slowing down, another 75 basis point rate hike may be more appropriate; Cleveland Fed President Mester pointed out that there is no convincing evidence that U.S. inflation has peaked, and the FOMC's July rate hike will not be lower than that in June; The dovish San Francisco Fed president said there is still a long way to go to solve high inflation.However, the market did not buy it and bet that in the face of the haze of recession, the Federal Reserve will soon turn on the path of tightening, and will start cutting interest rates as soon as the September meeting. Guided by this expectation, asset prices began to soar, U.S. stocks soared, and U.S. bond yields plummeted.Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management, said:The market seems to be saying to the Fed that you don't have to go as far as you want, and that you may start to reverse course at a faster pace, but is that sustainable in the face of a Fed that seems determined to fight inflation? Unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls'recession trade 'logic at riskWhen the market was rejoicing that they had won this game, Friday's non-farm payrolls report gave it a slap in the face.Both job growth and wage growth far exceeded economists' forecasts, and the U.S. economy has not cooled as quickly as markets thought.\"Good news for the economy is bad news for the market.\" Employment data that is positive for the economy may not support market confidence that U.S. stocks will continue to rebound. Some analysts pointed out that the rise in U.S. bond yields may indicate that the logic of \"recession trading\" may soon change, and the bear market rebound in U.S. stocks will end.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 2.838%, up from 2.674% on Thursday, according to Tradeweb data. Still, it's well below its 2022 peak of 3.5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at Investment Management Company (Pimco), said:The unanimous rally in stocks and bonds \"feels a bit premature,\" but investors no longer seem to believe in the Fed's ability to curb inflation, spooking investors when the 10-year Treasury Bond yield climbed to 3% in the spring, but a higher yield may be needed next time.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said non-farm payrolls \"really disrupted the market's narrative of the Fed's dove turning point approaching\" and were \"very unfriendly to financial markets.\"John Lynch, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management, said bluntly:\"We believe this development marks the end of the recent bear market rally in U.S. stocks. A main driver of the previous rise in U.S. stocks was investors' hope that the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive in the future, which pushed growth and technology stocks higher.\"</body></html>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666930\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3666930","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130801060","content_text":"强劲的非农打乱了市场对美联储转鸽拐点将至的叙述，“衰退交易”逻辑面临风险，更有分析师喊出了，美股熊市反弹结束！昨日，美国劳工部公布的7月非农大超预期，新增就业总数和失业率均回到2020年2月欧美疫情爆发前的水平，新增就业52.8万人甚至较市场预期的25万翻倍。面对如此强劲的劳动力市场，暴力加息预期重燃，美联储9月加息75个基点的预期大幅提振。在激进的加息预期下，美股转头下跌，标普两连阴，纳指收跌0.5%；美债收益率蹿升，2年期和10年期美债收益率曲线倒挂程度达二十年来最大；美元指数拉升走高，创逾一周新高。而在近几周来，市场开始押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快“屈服”，并在紧缩道路上“转向”。风险资产由此开启了一波反弹，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。在强劲的非农面前，此前的“衰退交易”似乎开始站不住脚，也有分析师喊出了，美股熊市反弹结束！美联储官员“狂轰滥炸” 市场依旧狂欢在7月第二次加息75基点后，市场与美联储之间开启了一场大战，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。本周，美联储更是派出一位又一位官员开启车轮战，他们直接对着市场“狂轰滥炸” ，高声“放鹰”。旧金山联储主席Mary Daly表示，美联储离打击通胀结束还差得很远，如果劳动力市场仍然没有放缓的迹象，或许再次加息75个基点更为合适；克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特指出，并无任何令人信服的证据表明美国通胀已经见顶，FOMC的7月加息力度不会低于6月份；鸽派的旧金山联储主席称，解决高通胀问题还有很长一段路要走。然而市场并不买账，并押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快在紧缩道路上转向，最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。在这种预期的指引下，资产价格开始飙升，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。北方信托财富管理公司首席投资官Katie Nixon对此表示：市场似乎在对美联储说，你不必走你想走的那么远，而且你可能以更快的速度开始扭转方向，但面对一个似乎下定决心抗击通胀的美联储，这是否是可持续的？非农意外强劲 “衰退交易”逻辑面临风险市场在欢欣鼓舞，认为他们已经拿下了这一局的时候，周五的非农报告让其当头棒喝，就业增长和工资增长都远超过了经济学家的预测，美国经济并没有像市场想象的那样迅速降温。“经济好消息是市场坏消息”，对经济利好的就业数据，可能无法支撑美股将持续反弹的市场信心。有分析指出，美债收益率的攀升可能表明“衰退交易”逻辑可能很快发生转变，美股熊市反弹将结束。根据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美债的收益率为2.838%，高于周四的2.674%。尽管如此，仍远低于2022年的峰值3.5%。太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）投资组合经理Tony Crescenzi表示：股市和债市的一致反弹“感觉有点为时过早”，但投资者似乎不再相信美联储遏制通胀的能力，当10年期国债收益率在春季攀升至3%时，吓坏了投资者，但下一次可能需要更高的收益率。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick称，非农就业“确实打乱了市场对美联储转鸽拐点将至的叙述”，“对金融市场非常不友好”。Comerica财富管理的首席投资官John Lynch更是直言：“我们认为这一发展标志着近期美股熊市反弹的结束。此前美股走高的一个主要驱动因素，便是投资者希望美联储在未来不会那么激进，这推动了成长股和科技股走高。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}