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2022-08-08

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Buffett's huge investment loss in the second quarter reflects many problems

越老的人，就越容易陷入经验主义。

Buffett's huge investment loss in the second quarter reflects many problems

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However, due to huge losses in investment and derivatives, it suffered a net loss of US $43.755 billion in the second quarter, compared with US $28.094 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This car is indeed a bit big.</p><p>In June of this year, Berkshire's stock price continued to plummet abnormally, far worse than several major U.S. stock indexes. Behind it, the market was worried about the stock price of several of its top investment targets due to the continued sharp drop in stock prices. The company's investment income will see a sharp pullback/retracement in the second quarter. Now it has been proved that this is the case.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbbe03e6f7ebbec647266eca1524748\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Generally speaking, Berkshire's performance overturn is actually in line with expectations, but if we look at the current changes in the global economic situation in the United States and Buffett's series of investment operations in the second quarter, there is a lot worth thinking about and discussing.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's net loss of investments and derivatives was US $53.38 billion, of which the book loss of stocks was as high as US $66.86 billion.</b></p><p>In terms of positions, as of June 30, about 69% of the fair value of the company's total investment was concentrated in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(US $125.1 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(US $32.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Company ($25.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>($23.7 billion) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>($21 billion).</p><p>However, in the second quarter, these heavyweight stocks basically fell sharply. Apple's stock price fell by more than 21.63%, American Express fell by more than 25.46%, Bank of America fell by 24%, Chevron fell by nearly 11%, and only Coca-Cola bucked the trend and rose in the second quarter. 2.22%, most of the other holdings also followed the market decline to varying degrees. In the end, the book value of its stock portfolio fell to $328 billion from $391 billion at the end of March.</p><p>In the second quarter, Buffett's operating profit of US $9.28 billion covered the insurance, railway and utilities businesses owned by the group, except that insurance increased the cost of repairing and replacing damaged vehicles due to inflation and rising used car prices, resulting in underwriting losses. In addition to $487 million, the railway, energy and utilities sectors achieved growth due to inflation passing on costs.</p><p><b>But it is worth noting that Buffett sold $2.3 billion of stock in the second quarter and only spent $6.2 billion on new stock purchases (most of which were used to increase his holdings)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>)), compared with the US $51.1 billion in buying and buying in the first quarter, it is a very obvious defense, and even makes people feel bearish on the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Buffett's operation, even if it is not bearish on the future stock market, is also a default that the current stock market price is not cost-effective.</b></p><p>Although Buffett called on everyone in his new press release not to pay too much attention to quarterly fluctuations and take a long-term view, it is difficult to raise investor confidence under the current macro situation.</p><p>Investments are based on the underlying business performance of the target and expectations for the future, but the larger the market value of the target invested, the more consistent it is with the economic cycle. Especially when its business has become global, it will definitely be affected by the global economic situation.</p><p>The reason why Buffett has always insisted on investing with the national movement of the United States, and the United States is indeed because since World War II, although it has gone through several rounds of twists and turns in the crisis of the Financial Committee, it is still growing very strongly on the whole. American enterprises have not only enjoyed various dividends due to the rapid development of local economy and technology for a long time, but also benefited from the global export of US dollar capital to eat the greater dividends of the times of economic globalization.</p><p>So the U.S. stock market is the strongest in the world, Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Only when the trillion-dollar market capitalization giants have they enjoyed the dividends of globalization did they achieve such huge growth.</p><p>For example, nearly 70% of the current market value of Buffett's holdings is concentrated in those global giants:</p><p><b>Apple's domestic revenue in the United States is only a little over 1/3, and its global business is already its bulk (Europe accounts for 1/4, Greater China accounts for nearly 1/5, and Japan and other Asia-Pacific regions account for about 15%); Coca-Cola's North American business is only 1/3 of the month, and other international regions account for 2/3; Chevron's domestic business in the United States accounts for 56%, and its international business accounts for 44%; American Express's international business accounts for more than 20%, and Bank of America's international business also accounts for 13%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d0bfd0437f51c1b05c93981cabdbc3\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These enterprises, except the domestic finance in the United States, have been deeply dependent on the global economy and share weal and woe.</p><p><b>Judging from the current situation, the current global economic situation has two major characteristics. First, after the massive currency overflow triggered by the impact of the epidemic in 2020 took the lead in entering the rate hike cycle in the United States, the global economy has become more fragile, and more and more countries have fallen back into recession. Second, geopolitical issues occur frequently and anti-globalization intensifies, which continues to have an impact on economic development.</b></p><p>For example, in recent years, Europe has continuously taken various punitive measures against American technology giants. After the situation between Russia and Ukraine, American companies have completely withdrawn from Russia, including Apple and Coca-Cola. Possible losses of Russian assets.</p><p>Under this wave, these giants with businesses all over the world, even if they have not yet entered the contraction stage, will gradually lose a considerable part of their global business incremental space, at least in the short term.</p><p>At present, it seems that whether it is currency contraction or geopolitical tensions, there is no possibility of a turnaround in a short period of time, which means that the global economy will still be under great pressure for some time to come, which in turn means that there are still downside risks to the future business performance of these global giants.</p><p>In Apple's latest financial report, revenue only increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 10.6%. Except for the iPhone business, which increased slightly by 2.8%, the Mac and IPad businesses began to decline.</p><p><b>Today, Apple's total market value has exceeded US $2.6 trillion, and its P/E is close to 30 times, which means that it must maintain a huge scale of revenue and profits every year to support its current and future valuation levels. But at present, it can be seen that its growth rate is decreasing and slowing down, and it is no longer difficult to show its rapid globalization.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc49c22a8a77b28cb4f1235f92e65e8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even though it can maintain growth by continuous product innovation and increased penetration of other economically backward countries, it is indeed increasingly difficult.</p><p>The logic of Coca-Cola is similar. With the rise of new drinks with multiple stock prices around the world, more and more competitors are becoming familiar with the new style of play, which will increase the erosion of Coca-Cola's market share.</p><p><b>In fact, although Coca-Cola's stock price is rising, its operating income has been declining since 2012. Although the decline has stopped in recent years, the revenue scale has not returned to the level of 10 years ago.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe23ef4b817274029f62444bed8af97\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, in general, in addition to Apple, Buffett's investment is still dominated by the traditional economy, and these traditional corporate giants will definitely be affected by the cycle.</p><p>Especially for oil, he made a big bet on Chevron and Occidental Petroleum. The reason why it has aroused a lot of heated discussions is that the short-term and future patterns of petrochemical energy are difficult to be unanimously optimistic.</p><p>Since 2021, the sharp rise in Occidental Petroleum's stock price is inseparable from the continuous push-up of national oil prices, especially after the Russo-Ukrainian war, the sharp increase in national oil prices has brought it huge benefits.</p><p>Another reason for the sharp rise is that Occidental Petroleum is repurchasing a large number of shares in Zhijia with the money it earns. Occidental Petroleum previously issued a $3 billion repurchase plan. As of August 1, it has repurchased $1.1 billion in shares, about half of which were repurchased in July and the other half in the second quarter. With the rapid growth of performance and large buybacks, Occidental Petroleum's stock price will definitely rise accordingly.</p><p>In addition, Occidental Petroleum's strategy in recent quarters has been to use its sufficient free cash flow to repay debt and spend cash by increasing dividends, rather than increasing investment and development in oil and gas projects. This method is indeed very attractive to shareholders in the short term, but in the long run, it is also a sign of lack of confidence in the future and dare not rashly expand production.</p><p>This is an inevitable law of the traditional energy industry cycle, but another influencing factor is that the global economic downturn has intensified, and OPEC has also increased production to cope with the impact of getting rid of Russia's energy dependence. However, Russia's exports will not be greatly compressed as a result. It only shifts export targets. Ultimately, under the abnormal balance of the global economic downturn leading to a reduction in total demand for traditional energy and an actual increase in total supply capacity caused by geopolitical influences, the possibility of a decline in oil prices in the future will be greater.</p><p>If oil prices fall in the future, Occidental Petroleum, which is mainly operated in the United States, will definitely not be immune to the impact. It will still face new revenue growth pressure, and its growth will be greatly affected.</p><p>As of the end of June, Berkshire held 181.7 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, accounting for 19.5% of the shares. Although Buffett has already won the first move for this investment, many investors actually have doubts about whether he can win in the future if he holds it all the time.</p><p><b>It is also difficult for us to see clearly which is right and which is wrong. In fact, if Berkshire was not a stock god but an ordinary investment institution, investors might have chosen to stay away from it long ago.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The older people are, the easier it is to fall into empiricism. Buffett is indeed an experienced investment veteran, but judging from a series of investment actions and styles over the years, he is indeed very old.</p><p>This kind of old age is reflected in the fact that he only dares to invest in traditional fields that he is familiar with, but he cannot understand emerging fields and is difficult to adapt to them. Therefore, except for Apple, most of his holdings are traditional fields, and he has greatly missed Amazon, Google, Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Waiting for super growth companies.</p><p>It is true that with the long-term steady growth of the U.S. economy and the inflation brought about by the long-term release of water, it is indeed possible to achieve steady and good returns by holding the leaders of those traditional industries, but the opportunity cost it misses in emerging fields The price is indeed extremely huge.</p><p>This kind of price can be reflected in the rapidly rising female stock Shenmutou Sister.</p><p><b>In other words, if the stock gods adapt enough to the times and have a clear cognition to spend a little more money to allocate emerging fields, then the market value of Berkshire Hathaway will be far more than that, and even exceed the market value of one trillion dollars. It's a cinch.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett's huge investment loss in the second quarter reflects many problems</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett's huge investment loss in the second quarter reflects many problems\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-08-08 11:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Xiao</p><p>The stock god has overturned.</p><p>In the second quarter,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway's revenue was US $76.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, slightly exceeding market expectations; Operating profit was US $9.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%. However, due to huge losses in investment and derivatives, it suffered a net loss of US $43.755 billion in the second quarter, compared with US $28.094 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>This car is indeed a bit big.</p><p>In June of this year, Berkshire's stock price continued to plummet abnormally, far worse than several major U.S. stock indexes. Behind it, the market was worried about the stock price of several of its top investment targets due to the continued sharp drop in stock prices. The company's investment income will see a sharp pullback/retracement in the second quarter. Now it has been proved that this is the case.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbbbe03e6f7ebbec647266eca1524748\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Generally speaking, Berkshire's performance overturn is actually in line with expectations, but if we look at the current changes in the global economic situation in the United States and Buffett's series of investment operations in the second quarter, there is a lot worth thinking about and discussing.</p><p><b>In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway's net loss of investments and derivatives was US $53.38 billion, of which the book loss of stocks was as high as US $66.86 billion.</b></p><p>In terms of positions, as of June 30, about 69% of the fair value of the company's total investment was concentrated in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(US $125.1 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(US $32.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Company ($25.2 billion),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>($23.7 billion) and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>($21 billion).</p><p>However, in the second quarter, these heavyweight stocks basically fell sharply. Apple's stock price fell by more than 21.63%, American Express fell by more than 25.46%, Bank of America fell by 24%, Chevron fell by nearly 11%, and only Coca-Cola bucked the trend and rose in the second quarter. 2.22%, most of the other holdings also followed the market decline to varying degrees. In the end, the book value of its stock portfolio fell to $328 billion from $391 billion at the end of March.</p><p>In the second quarter, Buffett's operating profit of US $9.28 billion covered the insurance, railway and utilities businesses owned by the group, except that insurance increased the cost of repairing and replacing damaged vehicles due to inflation and rising used car prices, resulting in underwriting losses. In addition to $487 million, the railway, energy and utilities sectors achieved growth due to inflation passing on costs.</p><p><b>But it is worth noting that Buffett sold $2.3 billion of stock in the second quarter and only spent $6.2 billion on new stock purchases (most of which were used to increase his holdings)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>)), compared with the US $51.1 billion in buying and buying in the first quarter, it is a very obvious defense, and even makes people feel bearish on the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Buffett's operation, even if it is not bearish on the future stock market, is also a default that the current stock market price is not cost-effective.</b></p><p>Although Buffett called on everyone in his new press release not to pay too much attention to quarterly fluctuations and take a long-term view, it is difficult to raise investor confidence under the current macro situation.</p><p>Investments are based on the underlying business performance of the target and expectations for the future, but the larger the market value of the target invested, the more consistent it is with the economic cycle. Especially when its business has become global, it will definitely be affected by the global economic situation.</p><p>The reason why Buffett has always insisted on investing with the national movement of the United States, and the United States is indeed because since World War II, although it has gone through several rounds of twists and turns in the crisis of the Financial Committee, it is still growing very strongly on the whole. American enterprises have not only enjoyed various dividends due to the rapid development of local economy and technology for a long time, but also benefited from the global export of US dollar capital to eat the greater dividends of the times of economic globalization.</p><p>So the U.S. stock market is the strongest in the world, Apple,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Only when the trillion-dollar market capitalization giants have they enjoyed the dividends of globalization did they achieve such huge growth.</p><p>For example, nearly 70% of the current market value of Buffett's holdings is concentrated in those global giants:</p><p><b>Apple's domestic revenue in the United States is only a little over 1/3, and its global business is already its bulk (Europe accounts for 1/4, Greater China accounts for nearly 1/5, and Japan and other Asia-Pacific regions account for about 15%); Coca-Cola's North American business is only 1/3 of the month, and other international regions account for 2/3; Chevron's domestic business in the United States accounts for 56%, and its international business accounts for 44%; American Express's international business accounts for more than 20%, and Bank of America's international business also accounts for 13%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d0bfd0437f51c1b05c93981cabdbc3\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>These enterprises, except the domestic finance in the United States, have been deeply dependent on the global economy and share weal and woe.</p><p><b>Judging from the current situation, the current global economic situation has two major characteristics. First, after the massive currency overflow triggered by the impact of the epidemic in 2020 took the lead in entering the rate hike cycle in the United States, the global economy has become more fragile, and more and more countries have fallen back into recession. Second, geopolitical issues occur frequently and anti-globalization intensifies, which continues to have an impact on economic development.</b></p><p>For example, in recent years, Europe has continuously taken various punitive measures against American technology giants. After the situation between Russia and Ukraine, American companies have completely withdrawn from Russia, including Apple and Coca-Cola. Possible losses of Russian assets.</p><p>Under this wave, these giants with businesses all over the world, even if they have not yet entered the contraction stage, will gradually lose a considerable part of their global business incremental space, at least in the short term.</p><p>At present, it seems that whether it is currency contraction or geopolitical tensions, there is no possibility of a turnaround in a short period of time, which means that the global economy will still be under great pressure for some time to come, which in turn means that there are still downside risks to the future business performance of these global giants.</p><p>In Apple's latest financial report, revenue only increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 10.6%. Except for the iPhone business, which increased slightly by 2.8%, the Mac and IPad businesses began to decline.</p><p><b>Today, Apple's total market value has exceeded US $2.6 trillion, and its P/E is close to 30 times, which means that it must maintain a huge scale of revenue and profits every year to support its current and future valuation levels. But at present, it can be seen that its growth rate is decreasing and slowing down, and it is no longer difficult to show its rapid globalization.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbc49c22a8a77b28cb4f1235f92e65e8\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Even though it can maintain growth by continuous product innovation and increased penetration of other economically backward countries, it is indeed increasingly difficult.</p><p>The logic of Coca-Cola is similar. With the rise of new drinks with multiple stock prices around the world, more and more competitors are becoming familiar with the new style of play, which will increase the erosion of Coca-Cola's market share.</p><p><b>In fact, although Coca-Cola's stock price is rising, its operating income has been declining since 2012. Although the decline has stopped in recent years, the revenue scale has not returned to the level of 10 years ago.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe23ef4b817274029f62444bed8af97\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, in general, in addition to Apple, Buffett's investment is still dominated by the traditional economy, and these traditional corporate giants will definitely be affected by the cycle.</p><p>Especially for oil, he made a big bet on Chevron and Occidental Petroleum. The reason why it has aroused a lot of heated discussions is that the short-term and future patterns of petrochemical energy are difficult to be unanimously optimistic.</p><p>Since 2021, the sharp rise in Occidental Petroleum's stock price is inseparable from the continuous push-up of national oil prices, especially after the Russo-Ukrainian war, the sharp increase in national oil prices has brought it huge benefits.</p><p>Another reason for the sharp rise is that Occidental Petroleum is repurchasing a large number of shares in Zhijia with the money it earns. Occidental Petroleum previously issued a $3 billion repurchase plan. As of August 1, it has repurchased $1.1 billion in shares, about half of which were repurchased in July and the other half in the second quarter. With the rapid growth of performance and large buybacks, Occidental Petroleum's stock price will definitely rise accordingly.</p><p>In addition, Occidental Petroleum's strategy in recent quarters has been to use its sufficient free cash flow to repay debt and spend cash by increasing dividends, rather than increasing investment and development in oil and gas projects. This method is indeed very attractive to shareholders in the short term, but in the long run, it is also a sign of lack of confidence in the future and dare not rashly expand production.</p><p>This is an inevitable law of the traditional energy industry cycle, but another influencing factor is that the global economic downturn has intensified, and OPEC has also increased production to cope with the impact of getting rid of Russia's energy dependence. However, Russia's exports will not be greatly compressed as a result. It only shifts export targets. Ultimately, under the abnormal balance of the global economic downturn leading to a reduction in total demand for traditional energy and an actual increase in total supply capacity caused by geopolitical influences, the possibility of a decline in oil prices in the future will be greater.</p><p>If oil prices fall in the future, Occidental Petroleum, which is mainly operated in the United States, will definitely not be immune to the impact. It will still face new revenue growth pressure, and its growth will be greatly affected.</p><p>As of the end of June, Berkshire held 181.7 million shares of Occidental Petroleum, accounting for 19.5% of the shares. Although Buffett has already won the first move for this investment, many investors actually have doubts about whether he can win in the future if he holds it all the time.</p><p><b>It is also difficult for us to see clearly which is right and which is wrong. In fact, if Berkshire was not a stock god but an ordinary investment institution, investors might have chosen to stay away from it long ago.</b></p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>The older people are, the easier it is to fall into empiricism. Buffett is indeed an experienced investment veteran, but judging from a series of investment actions and styles over the years, he is indeed very old.</p><p>This kind of old age is reflected in the fact that he only dares to invest in traditional fields that he is familiar with, but he cannot understand emerging fields and is difficult to adapt to them. Therefore, except for Apple, most of his holdings are traditional fields, and he has greatly missed Amazon, Google, Microsoft,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>Waiting for super growth companies.</p><p>It is true that with the long-term steady growth of the U.S. economy and the inflation brought about by the long-term release of water, it is indeed possible to achieve steady and good returns by holding the leaders of those traditional industries, but the opportunity cost it misses in emerging fields The price is indeed extremely huge.</p><p>This kind of price can be reflected in the rapidly rising female stock Shenmutou Sister.</p><p><b>In other words, if the stock gods adapt enough to the times and have a clear cognition to spend a little more money to allocate emerging fields, then the market value of Berkshire Hathaway will be far more than that, and even exceed the market value of one trillion dollars. It's a cinch.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/543895\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8356647b06585ac937a0f45e6aeb17","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/543895","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1146545010","content_text":"作者：陈肖股神翻车了。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司营收761.8亿美元，同比增长10.2%，略超市场预期；运营利润92.8亿美元，同比增长了38.7%。但由于投资和衍生品出现巨亏，导致其二季度净亏损了437.55亿美元，而在去年同期，它的净利润是280.94亿美元。这车，翻得确实的有点大了。在今年6月，伯克希尔的股价一度出现持续异常大暴跌，远差于美股几大指数，背后是市场在对其所持有的数个头部投资标的由于股价持续大跌而担心该股公司的投资收益会在二季度出现大幅回撤。如今证实结果却是如此。大概来看，伯克希尔的业绩翻车其实符合预期，但如果结合当前美国已经全球经济形势变化，以及巴菲特二季度一系列投资操作看，有很多值得思考探讨的地方。二季度，伯克希尔哈撒韦的投资和衍生品净亏损533.8亿美元，其中股票帐面亏损高达668.6亿美元。持仓方面，截至6月30日，公司总投资的公允价值约69%集中在苹果（1251亿美元）、美国银行（322亿美元）、可口可乐公司（252亿美元）、雪佛龙（237亿美元）和美国运通（210亿美元）。但二季度，这些重仓股都基本出现大幅下跌，苹果股价跌超21.63%，美国运通跌逾25.46%，美国银行跌24%，雪佛龙跌近11%，只有可口可乐在二季度逆势上涨了2.22%，其他持仓股大部分也不同程度地跟随大市下滑。最终，其股票投资组合账面价值从3月底的3910亿美元降至3280亿美元。在二季度，巴菲特的运营利润92.8亿美元中，范畴涵盖集团拥有的保险、铁路和公用事业等业务，除了保险因为通货膨胀和二手车价格上涨导致修理和更换受损车辆的成本增加导致承保损失为4.87亿美元外，铁路、能源和公用事业板块因为通胀转嫁成本，反而实现了增长。但值得注意的是，巴菲特二季度抛售了23亿美元的股票，仅花了62亿美元用于购买的新股票（大部分用在了增持西方石油）），对比一季度511亿美元的买买买，是在非常明显的防守，甚至让人感觉到对股市的看淡。巴菲特这种操作，即使不是对未来股市看淡，也是对当前股市的价格认为没有性价比的默认。尽管巴菲特在新新闻稿中呼吁大家不要过度在意季度波动，把眼光放长远点，但当前的各种宏观形势下，投资者的信心很难提起来。投资都是基于标的基础业务业绩，以及对未来的预期，但所投资的标的市值规模越大，就越与经济周期契合。尤其是当它的业务已经大到全球化的时候，肯定也会受全球经济形势的影响。巴菲特之所以一直坚持跟着美国国运做投资，而美国也确实是因为从二战以来其中虽然经过几轮金融委危机波折，但总体确实还是非常强势在增长，美国的企业不仅长期享受到了本土经济和技术发展突飞猛进下的各种红利，还得益于与美元资本的全球输出，去吃到了经济全球化浪潮更大的时代红利。所以美国股市全球最强，苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、微软等万亿美元市值巨头也是吃到了全球化红利才有如此巨大增长。比如现在巴菲特的持仓市值近7成都是集中在那几个全球化巨头中：苹果的美国本土营收仅有1/3出头，全球业务已经是它的大头（欧洲占了1/4，大中华地区占了近1/5，日本及其他亚太地区为15%左右）；可口可乐的北美地区业务仅有月1/3，国际其他地区占了2/3;雪佛龙的美国本土业务占比56%，国际业务占了44%；美国运通的国际业务占比超过2成，美国银行的在国际业务也有13%的占比。这些企业，除了美国本土金融外，都是已经深深与全球经济直接祸福相依，休戚与共。在当前形势看，现在全球经济形势出现两大特点，一是在2020年疫情冲击引发的海量货币超发潮在美国率先进入加息周期后，全球经济变得更加脆弱，越来越多国家重新陷入衰退期，二是地缘政治问题频发，逆全球化愈演愈烈，对经济发展持续造成冲击。比如，近几年来，欧洲不断针对美国科技巨头各种惩罚措施，而俄乌局势之后，美国企业全面撤出俄罗斯，其中也包括苹果和可口可乐，对它们来说不仅是业务的收缩，还有在俄资产的可能亏损。在这浪潮下，这些业务遍及全球的巨头，即使还没有进入收缩阶段，也有逐渐失去相当部分全球业务增量空间，起码短期会有这种风险。而目前看来，无论是货币收缩，还是地缘政治紧张局势，在短时间内还未见到可出现转机的可能，意味着未来一段时间，全球经济依然会有非常大的压力，进而意味着这些全球巨头的未来业务业绩，还存在下行风险。苹果的最新一期财报，营收仅同比增长1.9%，净利润下滑了10.6%，除了iPhone手机业务略微增长2.8%外，Mac和IPad业务开始下滑。如今苹果的总市值已经超过了2.6万亿美元，市盈率接近30倍，这意味着其每年要维持极大规模的营收和利润才能支撑得起当前以及未来的估值水平。但目前可以看到，它的增速越来越减小和放慢，再也难呈现其在大举全球化时的迅猛。即使它还可以靠不断的产品创新，和加大其他经济落后国家的渗透去维持增长，但这样的难度确实也是越来越大。可口可乐的逻辑也差不多如此，随着全球多个股价的新式饮料崛起，越来越多的竞争对手开始熟悉新的打法，对可口可乐的市场份额会加大侵蚀。实际上，尽管可口可乐的股价在不断上涨，但其营业收入从2012年之后就开始不断下滑，近年虽然止住了跌势，但营收规模依然没有回到10年前的水平。此外，总的来看，巴菲特的投资中除了苹果外，依然还是传统经济为主，这些传统企业巨头肯定也是会受周期影响。尤其是石油，他大手笔押注雪佛龙和西方石油，之所以引起很多热议，原因是石化能源的短期与未来的格局，都难再被一致看好。2021年至今，西方石油的股价大幅上涨离不开国家油价被不断推高，尤其是俄乌战争之后，国家油价大幅增长给它带来巨额的收益。另一个大幅上涨的原因在于，西方石油在把赚到的钱对之家股份大量回购，西方石油此前发出一项30亿美元的回购计划，截至截至8月1日，其已回购了11亿美元的股票，其中约一半在7月份回购，另一半在第二季度回购。迅猛增长的业绩和大额的回购，西方石油的股价肯定跟着上涨。此外，西方石油在最近几个季度的策略是利用其充足的自由现金流来偿还债务，并且通过加大分红方式把现金花出去，而不是去加大油气项目的投资开发。这种方式短期确实对股东有极大的吸引力，但从长远看，也是对未来信心不足，不敢贸然扩产的表现。这是传统能源行业周期的必然规律，但另一个影响因素在于，全球经济下行加剧，欧佩克也有增产去应对摆脱俄罗斯能源依赖带来的冲击。但俄罗斯的出口并不会因此大量压缩，它只是转移出口对象，最终，在全球经济下行导致传统能源总需求减少而地缘政治影响导致总供应产能实际增加的畸形平衡下，未来油价下行的可能性会更大。如果未来油价下行，主营在美国本土的西方石油肯定也不能幸免影响，依然也会面临新的营收增长压力，成长性会受到很大的影响。而截至6月底，伯克希尔持有西方石油公司1.817亿股，占19.5%的股份。尽管对于此投资，巴菲特已经赢得先手，但如果一直持有，未来是否还能赢下去，其实也有很多投资者心存质疑。孰对孰错，我们也很难看清楚，其实如果伯克希尔不是有股神的名头而是一个普通的投资机构，可能投资者早就选择远离它了。结语越老的人，就往往越容易陷入经验主义，巴菲特确实是身经百战经验丰富的投资老手，但从这些年一系列的投资动作和风格上看，他确实是很老了。这种老，体现在只敢做投资自己熟知的传统领域，对新兴领域看不懂，也很难适应，所以他除了苹果之外，所持有的大多数都是传统领域，而大大错过了亚马逊、谷歌、微软、特斯拉、英伟达等超级成长公司。诚然，跟着美国经济长期稳健增长，以及长期放水带来的通胀进而带来的收益增长，守住那些传统行业的龙头确实也能实现稳健且不错的收益，但它在新兴领域所错过的机会成本代价，也确实是无比巨大的。这种代价，可以从迅速崛起的女股神木头姐身上体现出来。换句话，如果股神足够适应时代和认知清醒，去花多一点资金去配置新兴领域，那么伯克希尔哈撒韦的市值高度，将远不止于此，甚至突破万亿美元市值，也早就不在话下了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}