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2023-03-20

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Besides not adding rate hike, the Fed will report another big event this week

关键时刻，美联储正盯紧这四个指标。

Besides not adding rate hike, the Fed will report another big event this week

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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on March 22.<b>In addition to announcing whether it is a rate hike, it is likely that it will also report on the state of the Fed's supervision of the banking and financial system.</b></p><p>According to research, through the Federal Reserve's regulatory reports, meeting minutes and financial situation reports, we can see the near-real-time stress indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve in previous crises, which are related to how policymakers will respond to the current banking crisis.</p><p><b>Here are four metrics that are relevant to this banking crisis and could affect the Fed's final decision:</b></p><p><b>1. Bank financing cost indicators</b></p><p><b>Stock prices are a big focus for the Fed when it comes to assessing banks' cost of funds.</b>Local banks are under greater pressure than large banks, which are more regulated, enjoy better capital and liquidity requirements, and have easier access to capital markets. The pressure of local banks will become the motivation of large banks in times of crisis. Because once small banks show instability, a large amount of deposits will be transferred into big banks, which is why the stocks of leading banks will perform better relatively.</p><p>In the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve considered the 30-day spread between financial and non-financial AA-rated commercial paper as another indicator to measure the financing cost of banks.<b>This indicator is particularly important in the financial crisis, because the short-term credit cost of banks increases when faced with capital and liquidity shortages.</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the banking crisis, the interest rate spread fluctuated relatively mildly. It only expanded by 7 basis points after the Credit Suisse crisis, and it was still within the normal historical range. The SVB incident had little impact on it.<b>The cost of 30-day funding for financial companies has not become more expensive.</b></p><p><b>Financial System Risk Indicators</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve uses financial market monitoring tools to regulate banks, among which,<b>Large banks are regulatory focus</b>。 Page 10 of the regulatory and regulatory report released by the Federal Reserve in November shows the following two real-time risk indicators.</p><p><b>The first is that the Fed obtains the average \"market leverage ratio\" by dividing the market value of banks by the sum of market value and total liabilities.</b>The pressure on stock prices will naturally lead to a decline in market leverage.</p><p><b>The second is the average credit default swap (CDS) spread of the large banks studied by the Federal Reserve</b>, the spread has risen slightly since the failures of SVB and Signature Bank. Although the risk signal is bright red, it only rose to the level of last October and may not touch the alert level. However, large banks will undoubtedly benefit from the thunder explosion of local banks again.</p><p>Not only large banks, but also the CDS spreads of the entire financial industry have attracted much attention from the Federal Reserve. In 2008, the Fed reviewed 179<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a>CDS spread index.<b>While it has risen slightly in recent days, spreads are still low compared to last year.</b></p><p><b>3. Private credit cost indicators</b></p><p>Even if the credit crisis is due to temporary liquidity constraints, the financing situation of the entire real economy will also be affected.<b>In order to monitor the credit situation of the real economy, the Federal Reserve will keep a close eye on the spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury Bond to keep a close eye on risk premiums and the broader cost of capital.</b></p><p>In view of the fact that after the collapse of SVB, the spread of corporate bonds has expanded to 35-40 basis points, and the cost of corporate capital has risen slightly, this will also be included in regulatory considerations.<b>However, whether the spread widens to a warning level remains to be considered, or it will not lead to a shift in Fed policy.</b></p><p><b>4. Lower frequency indicators</b></p><p>In addition to the market-based real-time monitoring indicators mentioned above, the Fed also considers a range of lower-frequency data, including:<b>Survey of senior bank loan officers, capital adequacy and liquidity indicators based on quarterly results reports and results, and stress test results</b>。</p><p>although<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The explosion of Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse triggered market panic, but according to current research, the possibility of financial risk spillover is unlikely, at least compared with past crises.<b>The Federal Reserve should hold a similar view, and it is expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March will release the same signal, with the most likely result being a rate hike of 25 basis points.</b></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Besides not adding rate hike, the Fed will report another big event this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBesides not adding rate hike, the Fed will report another big event this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-20 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>At the critical moment, the Federal Reserve is keeping an eye on these four indicators. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on March 22.<b>In addition to announcing whether it is a rate hike, it is likely that it will also report on the state of the Fed's supervision of the banking and financial system.</b></p><p>According to research, through the Federal Reserve's regulatory reports, meeting minutes and financial situation reports, we can see the near-real-time stress indicators monitored by the Federal Reserve in previous crises, which are related to how policymakers will respond to the current banking crisis.</p><p><b>Here are four metrics that are relevant to this banking crisis and could affect the Fed's final decision:</b></p><p><b>1. Bank financing cost indicators</b></p><p><b>Stock prices are a big focus for the Fed when it comes to assessing banks' cost of funds.</b>Local banks are under greater pressure than large banks, which are more regulated, enjoy better capital and liquidity requirements, and have easier access to capital markets. The pressure of local banks will become the motivation of large banks in times of crisis. Because once small banks show instability, a large amount of deposits will be transferred into big banks, which is why the stocks of leading banks will perform better relatively.</p><p>In the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve considered the 30-day spread between financial and non-financial AA-rated commercial paper as another indicator to measure the financing cost of banks.<b>This indicator is particularly important in the financial crisis, because the short-term credit cost of banks increases when faced with capital and liquidity shortages.</b></p><p>After the outbreak of the banking crisis, the interest rate spread fluctuated relatively mildly. It only expanded by 7 basis points after the Credit Suisse crisis, and it was still within the normal historical range. The SVB incident had little impact on it.<b>The cost of 30-day funding for financial companies has not become more expensive.</b></p><p><b>Financial System Risk Indicators</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve uses financial market monitoring tools to regulate banks, among which,<b>Large banks are regulatory focus</b>。 Page 10 of the regulatory and regulatory report released by the Federal Reserve in November shows the following two real-time risk indicators.</p><p><b>The first is that the Fed obtains the average \"market leverage ratio\" by dividing the market value of banks by the sum of market value and total liabilities.</b>The pressure on stock prices will naturally lead to a decline in market leverage.</p><p><b>The second is the average credit default swap (CDS) spread of the large banks studied by the Federal Reserve</b>, the spread has risen slightly since the failures of SVB and Signature Bank. Although the risk signal is bright red, it only rose to the level of last October and may not touch the alert level. However, large banks will undoubtedly benefit from the thunder explosion of local banks again.</p><p>Not only large banks, but also the CDS spreads of the entire financial industry have attracted much attention from the Federal Reserve. In 2008, the Fed reviewed 179<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial institution</a>CDS spread index.<b>While it has risen slightly in recent days, spreads are still low compared to last year.</b></p><p><b>3. Private credit cost indicators</b></p><p>Even if the credit crisis is due to temporary liquidity constraints, the financing situation of the entire real economy will also be affected.<b>In order to monitor the credit situation of the real economy, the Federal Reserve will keep a close eye on the spread between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury Bond to keep a close eye on risk premiums and the broader cost of capital.</b></p><p>In view of the fact that after the collapse of SVB, the spread of corporate bonds has expanded to 35-40 basis points, and the cost of corporate capital has risen slightly, this will also be included in regulatory considerations.<b>However, whether the spread widens to a warning level remains to be considered, or it will not lead to a shift in Fed policy.</b></p><p><b>4. Lower frequency indicators</b></p><p>In addition to the market-based real-time monitoring indicators mentioned above, the Fed also considers a range of lower-frequency data, including:<b>Survey of senior bank loan officers, capital adequacy and liquidity indicators based on quarterly results reports and results, and stress test results</b>。</p><p>although<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The explosion of Credit Suisse and Credit Suisse triggered market panic, but according to current research, the possibility of financial risk spillover is unlikely, at least compared with past crises.<b>The Federal Reserve should hold a similar view, and it is expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March will release the same signal, with the most likely result being a rate hike of 25 basis points.</b></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=108658&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0209981cdff7fe62e7a2c1dc992cd7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=108658&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2320157725","content_text":"关键时刻，美联储正盯紧这四个指标。美联储主席鲍威尔将于3月22日召开新闻发布会，除了宣布是否加息外，很可能还会报告美联储对银行业和金融体系的监管状况。据研究显示，通过美联储的监管报告、会议记录和金融状况报告，可以看到美联储在先前危机中监控的近实时压力指标，关系到决策者将如何应对当前的银行业危机。以下是四个与此次银行危机相关且可能影响美联储最终决策的指标：一、 银行融资成本指标在评估银行的资金成本方面，股价是美联储的一大关注点。与大型银行相比，地方银行面临的压力更大，因为大型银行受到更严格的监管，享受更好的资本和流动性的要求，而且更容易进入资本市场。地方银行的压力在危机时又会成为大型银行的动力。因为小银行一旦表现出不稳定性，大量存款就会转移流入大银行，这也是为什么头部银行的股票相对表现也会更好。2008年的金融危机中，美联储就曾考虑30天金融和非金融AA级商业票据的利差，将其作为衡量银行融资成本的另一个指标。这一指标在金融危机中尤为重要，因为面临资本和流动性短缺时，银行短期信贷成本加大。此次银行危机爆发后，利差波动相对温和，仅于瑞信危机后扩大了7个基点，仍处于正常的历史区间内，SVB事件对其影响并不大。金融公司的30天融资成本并未变得更高昂。二、金融系统风险指标美联储使用金融市场监控工具监管银行，而其中，大型银行是监管重点。11月美联储公布的监管和规范报告的第十页展示了下列两个实时风险指标。第一是美联储通过将银行市值除以市值与总负债之和得到平均“市场杠杆率”。股价的压力自然会导致市场杠杆率有所下降。第二是美联储研究的大型银行的信用违约掉期（CDS）平均利差，自SVB和签名银行倒闭以来，该利差略有上升。尽管风险信号亮红，但只是上升至去年10月的水平，可能并未触及警戒水平。不过大型银行无疑会再次从此次地方银行爆雷事件中受益。不仅仅是大型银行，整个金融行业的CDS利差都备受美联储关注。2008年，美联储审查了179家金融机构的CDS利差指数。虽然最近几天略有上升，但与去年相比，利差仍然很低。三、民间信贷成本指标即便此次信贷危机是由于暂时的流动性紧张，整个实体经济的融资状况也将受到影响。为了监控实体经济的信贷状况，美联储将紧盯企业债与美国国债的利差，以密切关注风险溢价和更广泛的资本成本。鉴于SVB倒闭之后，企业债券利差扩幅增至35-40个基点，企业资本成本略微上浮，这也将纳入监管考虑之一。不过，利差是否扩至触及警戒水平还有待考量，或不会导致美联储政策转向。四、较低频的指标除了上述基于市场的实时监控指标之外，美联储还考虑了一系列较低频数据，包括：银行高级信贷员调查、基于季度业绩报告和业绩的资本充足率和流动性指标、以及压力测试结果。虽然硅谷银行和瑞信爆雷引发了市场恐慌情绪，不过就目前研究来看，金融风险外溢可能性不大，至少相比于过去的危机概率很小。美联储应持类似观点，预计3月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议释放出相同信号，最有可能的结果是加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".IXIC":1,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"NQmain":0.9,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3162,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}