With the year 2025 fast approaching, technology has evolved so much that consumer preferences have changed a lot too.From smart shopping assistants to contactless payments, the way people select, evaluate and buy things is much different than it used to be.AI has driven a lot of personalized experiences, right, and young people are now getting more comfortable with using AI to decide where to shop and what to buy.Those algorithms that utilize massive amounts of consumer data can tailor recommendations to each individual.So companies that can provide this personalized experience are definitely reaping the benefits of this trend.Technology has made business activities and supply chains and whatnot more transparent, and consumers are increasingly attracted to brands that are sustainable and e
US Tech Stocks have *never* been this expensive outside of the dot com bubble
1.US Tech Stocks have *never* been this expensive outside of the dot com bubble...does that mean it's a bubble again?Maybe (but there is nuance)Reasons for this + outlook $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image2.US Stock Indexes used to only have 3 Sectors (Industrials, Utilities, and Rails)How times have changed...(and continue to change: e.g. telecoms got renamed to communication services, and a bunch of tech stocks got reshuffled into that sector and consumer discretionaries)do sector labels really matter? 🤔 $.SPX(.SPX)$ Image3.You probably know how to use valuation signals to figure
1.Higher For Longer: This chart was key in 2024 by stopping us getting too bullish on bonds, as a new higher range-trade took hold...Image2.Moar Moore’s LawGood cause for long-term optimism.Albeit, n.b. even as humanity as a whole wins from the onward march of technological progress, the individual winners vs losers will be in near-constant flux + difficult to pick with precision.Image3.US PE Ratios about 2x that of Chinawhy?Because it's ""obvious"" --> explained: Image4.Gold vs Bitcoin: when 5th cycle?If these cycles continue to repeat and a 5th cycle is about to begin that will mean a large wave of outperformance by Gold vs Bitcoin over the coming 12-18 months $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$$CME Bit
10 of the most notable and enduring charts from the past year
This week it’s a slightly different focus than usual given the quieter time-of-year — this edition takes a look at some of the most notable and enduring charts from the past year1. Market Cap to GDP Ratio: This one made the list because the trend (and cycle around the trend) is very interesting — but perhaps more poignant is the fact that for the first time in history the US Stockmarket capitalization to GDP ratio broke through the 200% mark. A reflection of the time we live in with regards to US leadership in global markets, but also the stage we are at in the market cycle.2. US Market Cap vs the World: Another market-cap milestone was set this year — the US stock market cap weighting in developed market equities reached a new high. Again this is interesting because of how it
The Company. One of the up & coming cybersecurity growth stocks that are trading at more reasonable valuations is $SentinelOne, Inc(S)$. SentinelOne is a cybersecurity company that plans to replace all human analysts with AI algorithms across its Singularity XDR (extended detection and response) platform. It believes that automated approach is faster and less prone to making errors. It deploys its XDR services through a mix of on-site appliances and cloud-based services. That hybrid approach insulates it from internet outages, that in its worst form, can disrupt fully cloud-native cybersecurity platforms like $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$’s Falcon. Comparison Against Peers. How does SentinelOne stac
Money or Passion: Which Matters More in Your Stock Trading?
Jessica Steinmetz, the Clinical Director at Safe Foundation in New York, stated that currently, around 10% of patients are seeking help for “trading addiction,” something that was virtually unheard of before 2020.This group of people is primarily addicted to meme stocks like $GameStop(GME)$ and $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$, as well as 24/7 cryptocurrency trading. High-leverage options trading is another major area of concern.Do You Trade Stocks for Money or Passion?It is said that the dopamine release triggered by stock trading is much higher than that from regular recreational activities.Some people trade stocks purely out of passion, enjoying the sense of achievement
📉 Pullback Starting: Can S&P Hold 6000 Points This Year?
📈 Market Snapshot: The S&P 500( $.SPX(.SPX)$ ) started pulling back in early trading on Friday after a stellar rally in recent weeks. Investors are now asking: Will the index hold 6,000 points or higher in 2024? Is it time to take profits, or is this a buying opportunity? Could the market hit a new all-time high by the end of the year? The S&P 500 has been on a bullish run in Q4 2024, buoyed by positive earnings reports and optimism over AI and tech innovation. However, rising interest rates and uncertainty about 2025 growth projections are introducing volatility. 📊 Key Data Points: 💡 What’s Driving the Pullback? Profit-Taking: Many investors are locking in profits after significant gains in mega-cap tech stocks. Economic Concerns: The mar
1.Meme Stocks.It was supposed to be some weird David vs Goliath thing, but ultimately it really was about a few lucky individuals getting in early, and the subsequent arrival of dumb money who followed the pied piper and lost.Beware of folk selling get rich quick, because it may not be you that gets rich quick! 😲Image2.This is perhaps *the* most important chart of the past few years, it helped in detecting key shifts in monetary policy settings ─ and that’s really been a key macro call to get right in this day and age.Image3.The mountains and valleys of years gone by in Emerging Markets vs US Equities relative performance... $.SPX(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Bitcoin has been moving in sync with the global M2 money supply (on a 10 week lag).The current negative divergence is pointing to $80k for Bitcoin. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ Image
In 6 days, the AI narrative will change from:2025 capex is up HUGE!toWhat is 2026 capex?The answer to that question and where the spending will happen (ie. where is there ROI?) will determine AI stock performance in 2025. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$$Alphabet(GOOG)$$Alphabet(GOOGL)$$Broadcom(AVGO)$$SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ The returns to being the market leader in AI seem lower than any technology in history. A competitor 6 months behind could see- Costs 90%+ lower- Speed 10x faster If the time to deploy is long (autonomous driving, business model disruption, research), I like the lagga
The best investors are on a constant learning journey
The best investors are on a constant learning journey.Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.Learn, implement, repeat.And the best trade is not to trade at all. Compounding takes time...and patience.Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad."Volatility is the price of admission. The prize inside is superior long-term returns." - Morgan Housel
Here's how the constituents of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ differ based on their growth rate and the linearity of that growth.I use RSq, so the closer to 1.00 the better the correlation and therefore the less the volatility. And yes, it's against years.ImageHere are some of the financial metrics I optimise my portfolio for:What would you add?ImageInterestingly I rarely see FCF yield as a predictor of future share price gains. But I absolutely keep my eye on it!The three most important qualities of a quality business:1. Predictable growth2. Capital efficiency3. Pricing powerWhat would you add?