Weekly Macro Themes - Global bank stocks have been performing well
This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. Resurgence Risk: The global growth reacceleration + inflation resurgence macro edge risk is increasingly becoming the base case as a growing body of evidence points to imminent inflation upside.2. Commodities: Clear case for upside based on improving technicals, sentiment and positioning, growth reacceleration prospects, cheap valuations, and a prolonged period of underinvestment in supply.3. Credit Spreads: The credit (and equity) risk premium looks uncomfortably low, and while we can outline some risks, there doesn’t appear to be any near and pressing catalyst; but still lean cautious.4. Global Bank Stocks: Global bank stocks have been performing well technically, with strengthening macro/fundamentals to back it; global (ex-US) banks are
What influences share price?Here’s a mental model for thinking through systematically the dynamics behind the numbers.Valuation multiples also play a role in share price, so that’s the change in FCF yield. $S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$$DJIA(.DJI)$ ImageFCF growth (at the top). Some companies do this with low ROC (by taking on more capital), others do it with high ROC. See below.ImageTwo things you can do to become a better investor: 1. Limit the number of companies you own 2. Limit how frequently you trade This forces you to: 1. Only own your best ideas 2. Accept there will always opportunities you miss out on
WeRide (WRD) Soars 83.46%: Understanding the NVIDIA (NVDA) Connection and Investment Strategy
WeRide's Stock Soars on NVIDIA's Backing On February 14, 2025, WeRide Inc. ( $WeRide Inc.(WRD)$ ) experienced a dramatic 83.46% surge in its stock price, closing at $31.50. The rally was driven by the disclosure that NVIDIA Corporation ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ ) had taken a stake in the company, acquiring 1.74 million shares. This news ignited investor enthusiasm, reflecting NVIDIA’s influential "star effect" and the market’s confidence in its strategic moves. The investment fueled speculation about WeRide’s long-term prospects in autonomous driving and AI-driven mobility solutions. Company Profile: Fundamentals, Financials, and Real-World Applications WeRide Inc., headquartered in Guangzhou, China, is a global le
$Aligos Therapeutics, Inc.(ALGS)$ ☕️🇦🇺🚀🌞 From +0.44% to +12.35%: Morning Trades and Triumphs with ALGS! 🌞🇦🇺🦘🚀 Good morning from Hobart! As I sip my freshly brewed ☕️ coffee, I’m joined by some delightful garden companions, Tasmanian pademelons. These charming marsupials, with their soft dark brown fur and reddish bellies, are a common sight here, especially during the early hours. Yesterday, while enjoying this serene Tasmanian morning, I shared my position in Aligos Therapeutics ($ALGS), which was at +0.44%, with a price of $21.04. Fast forward 24 hours, and ALGS has soared to $23.54, elevating my unrealised P&L to an impressive +12.35%! 📈☕ Trading amidst Tasmania’s tranquil environment, accompanied by the gentle presence of pademelons, adds
When considering which company—Alibaba or Baidu—would gain more from a partnership with Apple, the key lies in evaluating how well each firm’s core strengths and business models align with Apple’s ecosystem and strategic priorities. Here’s a detailed breakdown: 1. Core Business and Strategic Alignment Alibaba: • Diverse Ecosystem: Alibaba isn’t just an e-commerce giant—it also leads in cloud computing (Alibaba Cloud), digital payments (Alipay), and even logistics. This diversified portfolio means Alibaba can offer a broad range of services that could seamlessly integrate into Apple’s premium ecosystem. • Consumer-Focused Services: A partnership could, for instance, embed Alibaba’s shopping or payment services directly into Apple devices or apps, enhancing user convenience and potentially o
On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, the 2nd inflation report - US producer price index (PPI) for January 2025 was released by US Bureau of Labour Statistics, just before trading began. Producer Price Index - January 2025. Like its cousin report the consumer price index (CPI), released a day earlier, (click here !for details, help to Repost & Like to encourage) PPI’s inflation data rose on a YoY basis in January, (see above) Headline inflation : Monthly: was 0.4% vs economists’ consensus 0.3% vs december’s upwardly revised 0.5% (from 0.2%). Annual: was 3.5% vs economists’ consensus 3.2% vs december’s upwardly revised 3.5% (from 3.2%). Core inflation : Month
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Institutions regularly roll over bull call spreads, selling $NVDA 20250221 140.0 CALL$ and buying $NVDA 20250221 149.0 CALL$ . This supports the stock price above 140 next week.Excluding regular institutional large orders, bullish opening positions remain very active, showing steady progress.To play it safe, I sold a put expiring next week at 130 $NVDA 20250221 130.0 PUT$ By the way, TSMC's 190 put large position was closed earlier this week. The unclear negative news turned out to be about the trade war, with Trump stating ch
Check 5 Dark Horse Stocks This Week!! Did You Catch Them?
This week witnessed one of the most volatile earnings weeks, with five standout stocks rank as the dark horses!!!1. $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ saw a 31.82% surge on Wednesday, closing at $84.16.EPS: 0.26, beating expectations by 872.97%Revenue: $219M, beating by 20.46%The exceptional performance was driven by significant growth in revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, the management provided an optimistic outlook, projecting 2025 revenue of $1 billion and a move toward breakeven.AI model optimization has continuously improved the loan conversion rate, reaching 19.3% this quarter. Notably, 91% of loans are fully automated. The rate cuts in 2024 has also boosted borrowing demand.Currently, UPST remains unprofitable, with a PS valuation of 11.87.2.
Nvidia Shakes Up Portfolio: Dumps 3 Tech Stocks, Adds 2 New Bets! 🚀
Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) disclosed in a regulatory filing Friday that it sold off three tech stocks and added stakes in two others in the fourth quarter. Nvidia stock was little changed in early trading. Big moves from Nvidia! 🚀 The AI chip giant just shook up its portfolio in a major way, revealing in a regulatory filing on Friday that it sold off three tech stocks and picked up stakes in two new ones during Q4. In its latest Form 13F-HR with the SEC, Nvidia disclosed that it ditched its holdings in $Nano-X Imaging Ltd.(NNOX)$ , $Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$ , and $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ while also trimming its stake i
Why I Sold a Naked Call on TZA and Why It Worked Perfectly
Why I Sold a Naked Call on TZA and Why It Worked Perfectly Selling naked calls can be a bold move, but when executed strategically, it can yield significant profits. My recent trade on the Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares ETF (TZA) is a testament to this strategy’s potential$Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares(TZA)$ I sold two naked call options with a $14 strike price expiring on February 28, 2025, collecting a premium of $0.24 per share. With 100 shares per contract, this brought in $48 in premium income. As of today, the current price is $0.10, reflecting a profit of $28.48 after closing part of the position. So, why did this trade work so well? Understanding TZA: A Bearish Bet on Small Caps TZA is an i
Carbon Farming🌱📈 : Unlocking Sustainable Agriculture and Carbon Sequestration in 2025
As climate change and soil degradation become ever more pressing issues, carbon farming is emerging as a revolutionary approach to sustainable agriculture. In 2025, innovative practices that sequester carbon in soils are not only improving farm productivity but also playing a pivotal role in mitigating climate change. This post explores the fundamentals of carbon farming, key technological drivers, practical applications, investment opportunities, and the challenges that lie ahead—supported by market projections and data. 1. Overview of Carbon Farming Definition & Significance: Carbon farming involves implementing agricultural practices designed to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in soil organic matter. Tech
Selling covered call options (sell covered call) is a strategy adopted by many large funds. It can also be used by retail investors in the US stock market.You can get income while holding it. This strategy is very suitable for stocks that have long-term positions, but they have not moved but they are not in a bearish position recently or are in a bearish position recently. It can be a good strategy for mature investors to roll over when holding some targets for a long time. Income comparison Assume that investors hold 200 shares of Amazon from January 1 to December 17, 2021 If there is no operation during the holding period, the final total assets will be USD 675,484 If the covered call strategy is carried out, it will be operated once a week; if 100 shares are sold after the exercise, ano
(This is an article I received from a friend. I am NOT the author. This has got me thinking.) 🚨REAL ESTATE CRASH ON THE HORIZON by Josh Rincon Warren Buffett has just made a striking move, reallocating a staggering $234.6 billion into treasury bills. This marks the first time he's held more than the Federal Reserve's $195 billion. When Buffett shifts his investments like this, it's time to pay attention. Something major is brewing. Consider this: over the next 20 months, a whopping $2.7 trillion in commercial loans is due for repayment. These loans originally had an interest rate of 4.3%, but now they've surged to 6.2%. Let's break it down with a straightforward example: Imagine a $100 million hotel with a 3.5% loan. That's an annual interest payment of $3.5 million. Under t
This week, Hong Kong stocks surged, with the $HSI(HSI)$ rising 7.04% and reclaiming the 22,000-point mark, approaching the highs seen during the National Day holidays!The Catalyst: DeepSeek Breaks the AI NarrativeThe key driving force behind the rally is DeepSeek, which has completely overturned the AI narrative. The idea that Chinese AI could only follow the U.S. has been shattered, and both domestic and international funds are reevaluating tech stock investments. UBS even stated that the rise in the Chinese stock market driven by DeepSeek has only completed half of its potential!Alibaba Leads the ChargeIn AI tech stocks, $BABA-W(09988)$ is leading the way. Not only did it launch the Qwen 2.5-Max AI mode
@KYHBKO: From Buffett to Druckenmiller: Journey in Value Investing !
@KYHBKO is an active Star Contributor in the Tiger Community with over 10k followers!! Consistently providing valuable content about his insights and ideas in investing, he primarily focuses on long term investment with a value investing approach combine with macro-micro economic analysis and technical analysis .Please briefly introduce yourself, share your personal investment growth experience, and how you made your first bucket of gold in the market?My name is Benson, currently offering consultancy services with specialization in supply chain and I am doing some M&A work. My investing journey started with Warren Buffett and gradually added the lessons from Peter Lynch, Charlie Munger, Mohnish Pabrai, Morgan Housel, William Green,
💰💰Congrats to the Impressive Earnings & Success Stories by Cash Boost Account!
Hello, Tigers!🐯How's your trade going this week?We recently started rewarding the sharing of winning trades in the Telegram CashBoost group every week. In this activity, you can earn tiger coins and receive tiger-themed peripheral souvenirs.Welcome to join the Telegram group!💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉Follow @Tiger_Contra to see more Dividend Picks & High Alpha Stocks analysis.The market is rising this week, we have been excited to see many Tigers in the community who have opened a Cash Boost account and are sharing their profitable trades.This week, seven users have already profited a lot through Contra.On February 11th, we're so exci
New Alpha | A rebound in US gig economy: ABNB/UPWK/FVRR
💰 U.S. market maintains upward trajectory, with Meta setting a new record — rising for 19 consecutive trading days.💹 $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ , $Upwork Inc.(UPWK)$ , and $Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$ are emerging as highly attractive opportunities, offering substantial value for investors.📣Stay tuned, supercharge purchasing power through CashBoost!————————————————————————————————————————————————| Market recapThe U.S. stock market opened strong and closed higher across all three major indices. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ continues its impressive upward streak, breaking records with 19 consecutive days of gains. Additiona