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2025-03-10
Weekly ChartStorm — Current drawdown in SPX is tracking vs history
Perspective Check: Here’s how the current drawdown in the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is tracking vs history — it’s basically just noise at this stage…But the reason I picked this chart is it serves as a timely risk-management reminder:5-10% corrections are fairly common,10-20% corrections are not uncommon,and 20-30%+ downsides happen about at least once a decade (so if you invest for long enough, you *definitely will* experience at least one major downturn)It’s a reminder to be prepared, either through process (e.g. having a good objective and reliable approach to lighten exposure to downside in bear markets, and paying attention to asset allocation and smart diversification) and/or psychology (having the right mindset to stay the course, havi
12.57K
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2025-03-10
Gold, China, Buffett's bubble? - News and my thoughts from last week (10 Mar 2025)
News and my thoughts from last week (10 Mar 2025) History of gold - from Bloomberg China continues DUMPING US Treasuries: China's holdings fell by $77 billion in 2024 to $759 billion, the lowest in 15 YEARS. China is the world's second-largest foreign holder of US public debt after Japan. Are Treasuries losing safe haven status?! - X user Global Markets Investor Bloomberg - falling behind on car payments Car Buyers: The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high - BarChart Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada could go higher than a 25% rate imposed earlier this week, per Bloomberg. The top 10% of earners in the U.S. now account for 49.7% of all spending in the US, per WSJ. China’s exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. doll
TOPDollydolly: It's concerning to see such shifts in trade balances and debt.
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2025-03-10
Layoffs, stormbound S&P500? My Investing Muse (10 Mar 2025)
My Investing Muse (10 Mar 2025) Layoffs & Closure news Hudson’s Bay, the Canadian department store chain founded in 1670, is preparing for a bankruptcy filing within days, people familiar with the matter said - WSJ Big 4 fears layoffs with government consulting contracts under review. - Economic Times (India) HPE to cut 2,500 employees as stock slides 19% on weak earnings outlook. Will HPE be able to ride out this storm? - CNBC ALX Oncology, a Bay Area biotech firm currently running clinical trials for its anticancer therapy, announced Wednesday that it’s laying off about 30% of its staff. - SF Gate Nearly 100 Companies Announce Layoffs In March, According To Reports - Forbes February saw 46 companies lay off 15,994 employees. When compared to January, layoffs surged in February, resul
TOPThe volatility is real; maybe it's time to focus on safer bets and reassess our strategies.
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2025-03-10
Can Adobe (ADBE) Show Double-Digit Growth? Digital Media ARR and RPO Growth To Watch. Potential Undervalued Price To Get In.
$Adobe(ADBE)$ is expected to release its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings report on 12 March 2025 after market close. This upcoming earnings disclosure will be closely watched as market is expecting Adobe to report a consensus estimate for the revenue to grow by 9.11% to $5.65 billion as compared to same period one year ago. Adobe is projected to report earnings of $4.97 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 10.94%. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $20.39 per share and a revenue of $23.45 billion, demonstrating changes of +10.69% and +9.04%, respectively, from the preceding year. Adobe is strengthening its product portfolio by employing AI to empower filmmakers at all levels. On 28 January 2025, the c
TOPAdobe’s AI push looks promising, but with Creative Cloud growth stalling and Figma lurking, can they really hit that 9-10% revenue bump, or will macro headwinds clip their wings?[Sly][Sly]
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2025-03-10
Kanzhun (BZ) Strategic Investments And Share Repurchase To Watch
$Kanzhun Limited(BZ)$ is expected to report its quarterly earnings for Q4 2024 on 11 Mar 2025 before the market open. Kanzhun is expected to report a 14.7% increase in revenue to CNY1.813 billion from CNY1.58 billion same period one year ago. The consensus estimate for Kanzhun earnings per share is expected to come in at CNY1.54 per share or 22 cents per share. Kanzhun (BZ) Positive Last Earnings Call Saw A 26.58% Change in Its Share Price Since Since Kanzhun reported its positive earnings call on 11 Dec 2024, its share price have seen a 26.58% change since. The earnings call reflected strong growth in revenue and user base, with strategic expansion in the blue-collar segment contributing positively. However, increased expenses and macroeconomic unc
TOPYour insights on Kanzhun's potential are compelling
1.78K
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2025-03-10
United Hampshire US REIT's 2H FY24 Result Review
$UtdHampshReitUSD(ODBU.SI)$ Basic Profile & Key Statistics Key Indicators Performance Highlight Gross revenue remained stable, but NPI declined slightly due to higher property expenses. Combined with rising finance costs, distributable income and DPU saw a YoY decline. Divestment On 14 August 2024, UHREIT divested Lowe’s and Sam’s Club within Hudson Valley Plaza at a premium above purchase price and book value. On 16 January 2025, UHREIT completed another divestment of Albany - Supermarket at valuation but above the purchase price. Related Parties Shareholding REIT Sponsor's Shareholding: Less Favorable REIT Manager's Shareholding: Less Favorable Directors of REIT Manager's Shareholding: Favorable Lease Profile Occupancy: Moderate Highest A
TOPIt's insightful to see the impact of divestments on the numbers.
757
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2025-03-10
Daily Charts - — Global Equity Valuations
1.Pick of the Pack — Global Equity ValuationsThis month’s pick of the pack is a chart showing valuation indicators for the 3 major chunks of global equities...The key point is US is rolling over from extreme expensive, and RoW is cheap $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image2.LatAm Equities are starting to look very interesting...This chart showing improved technicals and earnings momentum + combined with the backdrop of cheap valuations makes for a compelling bullish setup.Image3.Here's the annual chart for the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ -sure seems to move in cycles-looks like we're at/near a cycle base-certainly can think of some catalysts...Image
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2025-03-07
Venture Global Stock Crash -36% Yesterday! IPO In Jan25 YTD Stock Drop Over 60%
$Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$ Venture Global (NYSE: VG) stock faced significant sell-offs during Thursday's trading session, plunging 36%. The sharp decline followed the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell short of expectations. In addition to missing sales and earnings estimates, the company's guidance disappointed investors, raising concerns over rising costs for a major expansion project. Earning Overview Before the market opened, Venture Global reported Q4 earnings per share of $0.33 on revenue of $1.52 billion, missing analyst expectations of $0.76 per share on $1.92 billion in revenue. Sales declined 6.7% year over year, and both revenue and margins fell short of even cautious projections. To add to investor concerns, the company
TOPGreat analysis as always mickey, yep it’s going to be a roller coaster ride on this one for sure. Glad i didn’t jump in when it listed, but now the price reflects the risk. Must be alot of bag holders out there sadly. Im going long 5+ years and will slowly accumulate. Long term it could become a great dividend stock. Time will tell
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2025-03-07
Global Economic Panic Begins Destroying Trillions in Retaliation!
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Alright, Tiger, we’re heading straight into the eye of the storm. For over three years, we’ve known the U.S. economy was in serious trouble. Inflation remains high, and interest rates are still at extreme levels. In 2024, Biden attempted to mask the underlying issues through excessive deficit spending, borrowing over $1.8 trillion—equivalent to 6.4% of the total U.S. GDP—to keep the economy afloat. This flood of money artificially fueled consumption, distorted asset prices, and created a false sense of stability. But the time bomb was already ticking, and now it’s detonating under Trump’s administration. Despite all that spending, GDP growth for 2024 came
TOPIncredible analysis! The situation is wild! [OMG]
856
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2025-03-08
Broadcom Options Volume More Than Quadruples After AI-Fueled Earnings Beat $Broadcom(AVGO)$
3.29K
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2025-03-10
SPX saw more downside as expected before reversing to the upside
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ saw more downside as expected before reversing to the upside.With the bullish reversal, it is favored that price is beginning its 2nd/B-Wave rally targeting 5865.Therefore, look higher against Friday's 5666 low, and anticipate an upside move. However, expect that rally to be sold.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ImageWatch me catch a 50 point $E-mini S&a
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2025-03-10
Ex-dividend this week: UNH, META, GOOG, NVDA & HD
Ex-dividend this week:UnitedHealth Group $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ Meta Platforms $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Home Depot $Home Depot(HD)$ ImageUnitedHealth Group $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ and Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ will both pay dividend on MAR10, their current yield are 1.7% and 0.5%, respectively.Nvidia
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2025-03-09
Is it time to seek the Oracle?-Preview of the week starting 10 Mar 2025
Public Holidays Singapore, Hong Kong, China & the USA have no public holidays in the coming week. Economic Calendar (10 Mar 2025) Economic Calendar Notable Highlights JOLTs Job openings (Jan) will be shared. The previous number was 7.6 million. This coming update will help us understand the job market outlook and serve as a data reference for the Federal Reserve when making its next interest rate decision. The Core CPI and CPI should be the most watched economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the references used for Inflation. The last CPI (YoY) was 3.0%. If inflation remains stubborn, it could affect the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, likely causing some volatility in the market. The PPI data will also be released in the coming
TOPMuch anticipated week! Lots of interesting news coming
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2025-03-09
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has been making a strong comeback, fueled by policy support, improving sentiment, and a rebound in Chinese equities. With markets in the West facing economic uncertainties, some investors are asking: Can HSI rally toward the key 30,000-point level? Bullish Case: The East is Rising China’s Policy Boost The Chinese government has stepped up support for the economy, from interest rate cuts to market-friendly reforms. Additional stimulus measures could further boost investor confidence. Valuation Rebound HSI stocks are trading at historically low valuations, making them attractive to long-term investors. Foreign funds are beginning to flow back into Chinese markets, reversing last year’s outflows. Sector Strength Technology and financial stocks are leading the rally,
TOPYour analysis captures the balance between optimism and caution perfectly.
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2025-03-09
US Economy & Stock Market Reset by Recession?
When I first came across the post, I was appalled just by the mere mention. (see below) However, casting prejudice aside and reading the post, it really seems like the “perfect” solution. So here I am, sharing this “conspiracy” theory. The thing I learnt is, when it comes to all things Trump - never say never. Based on the available information, the theory that the Trump administration is intentionally engineering a recession appears to be a controversial and speculative idea. However, it is a theory that some Wall Street analysts are taking seriously. Conspiracy theory Below is an analysis of the plausibility. For the Theory (1) Strategic Economic Manipulation: Some analysts, like Nomura's Charlie McElligott, argue that the administration wants a controlled economic slowdown to force the
TOPGreat article, very interesting points to note... Thanks for sharing 🙏
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2025-03-09
Capitalizing on Europe's Defense Boom: Investment Opportunities in EUAD, DFND:AU, and Beyond
On March 6, 2025, European Union leaders greenlit an ambitious €800 billion defense proposal, dubbed "ReArm Europe," aimed at bolstering the bloc’s military capabilities amid escalating global tensions. Unveiled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, this plan—sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties over U.S. support—promises to reshape capital markets and unlock significant investment opportunities, particularly in the military sector. For investors, ETFs like the Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF ( $Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF(EUAD)$ ) and the VanEck Global Defence ETF ( $Vaneck Global Defence Etf(DFND.AU)$ ) stand out as accessible ways
TOPThe EU’s €800 billion defense push is lighting a fire under EUAD and DFND:AU, but with stocks at highs and funding still shaky, do you think the rally’s got legs, or are we due for a reality check?[Surprised]
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2025-03-09
The major macro dilemma for investors
Key Findings from the Latest Monthly pack:Global monetary policy settings are increasingly shifting from headwind to tailwind as inflation falls and economic cycle data remain soft.The major macro dilemma for investors at this stage is the tails; resurgence risk on the one end (growth reaccelerates, inflation resurges), and recession risk on the other end (recession takes hold, deflation comes into focus).The second coming of Trump exacerbates this, with a puzzling policy path potentially pushing up inflation, but also raising recession risk (it will all depend on what gets implemented, how quickly, to what degree, and the second order effects e.g. with fiscal consolidation headwinds).The main upside risks for growth assets would be: a macro middle path (goldilocks, policy perfection), Chi
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2025-03-08
Does Improving Stock Trading Skills Contribute to Family Harmony?
Recently, a WSB user posted on reddit saying that because of his stock market failure, his fiancée was going to leave him. Stories like this seem to come up constantly.Some people have also mentioned that ever since they started investing in stocks, they've been doing more housework at home. Since they're always losing money, they try to make up for it by doing other things.A colleague said that during bull market, ever since his account started making a profit, his girlfriend has been treating him much better. I can relate to this too. When you're making money, family and friends start to look at you differently.Some people have even suggested that $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ could introduce a matchmaking feature, where a person’s stock returns could r
TOPStock market success definitely affects relationships. When I’m making money, I feel more confident, and people treat me differently. But when losses pile up, it impacts my mood and home life. I’ve noticed that some, including myself, try to compensate by doing more housework or being extra considerate. Improving trading skills can help family harmony if it leads to steady returns and less stress. Constant losses, however, can strain relationships. If someone invests responsibly, losses are just part of the game, but reckless investing is a problem. As for accepting a partner’s losses, it depends. If they’re careful and learning, I understand. But gambling away savings is unacceptable. A Tiger Brokers $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ matchmaking feature based on returns is funny but interesting—financial stability matters, but responsibility is key. @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT
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2025-03-07
Trade to Win Star | @ponkrumo: Strategy Innovation, Steady Climb
In this stock trading competition, @Ponkrumo stood out with 15 years of trading practice and evolving investment philosophy. As the Chief Human Resources Officer of United World College, he not only continuously explores new ideas in the capital markets, but also learns valuable experience in actual combat to shape a unique trading system.In the competition, @Ponkrumo used several strategies to capture market opportunities:•Credit Spread Portfolio: Use short-term options (1-2 week maturities) to build credit spreads to lock in expected gains while keeping losses under control.•Value-selective investing: buy stocks with solid fundamentals but undervalued by the market, such as Boein
TOPBoeing and Intel stocks are not currently on a buy rating. I have some Intel shares sitting for over a year now. which I have lost more than 50%>. One thing is true about investing in stocks is that the past performances don't guarantee the future performance of the investment return. There is no scientific forecast in the stock price path. Financial analysis is not a science. Stock price movement evolves around market dynamics short term market movement, geopolitical news and decision making ability to beat the market dynamics. In most cases news circulated in the morning affects the stock prices before mid-day. The price corrections occur in the last hour before the market closes. Human behavior is irrational to the news and tends to over react immediately without thinking.