$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ is the definition of a patience play—but just like Alibaba, I believe this is going to pay off.We’ve now had four straight weeks of higher highs on the weekly BX while still holding Point of Control. Price looks set to test $5 again in the coming weeks, and while this level has been a brick wall, we know that the more times a liquidity zone is tested, the higher the chance of a breakout.If we finally clear that level, I still see a $3–$4 move over the next 6–12 months.Image
Global gold miners’ market cap weighting is sitting just below long-term average
The worst kept secret of the Gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Bull Market is how poorly gold miners have been performing...While gold is hovering around all-time highs, global gold miners’ market cap weighting is sitting just below long-term average.ImageHours of work required to buy 1 oz of gold has reached a record high This level has been a stumbling block in the past, why should we believe this time will be any different?ImageLearnings and conclusions from this week’s charts:Reading only the technicals it looks like a bull market correction.Sentiment and positioning support the case for a short-term rebound.(but) Valuations/Allocations still point to caution on the longer-term.There’s been a sharp Global (up) vs USA (down) rota…
Every once in a while, I’m reminded that many investors haven’t lived through a normal recession or market decline in their investing lives. 2020 doesn’t count, in part because the market recovered in a few months and there was nothing “normal” about 2020.2008 and 2009 were the last real recession we had in the U.S. and someone who started their investing journey at the market bottom in 2009 at 22 years old would now be 38 years old!To say that the last 16 years of stability and prosperity for investors are an outlier would be an understatement. The only major pullbacks in that time were a short drop when COVID hit and the popping crypto/SPAC/ZIRP speculation in 2022. But there hasn’t been a normal recession since 2009.Zoom out to the beginning of the century and the last 16 years look lik
Weekly ChartStorm — Current drawdown in SPX is tracking vs history
Perspective Check: Here’s how the current drawdown in the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is tracking vs history — it’s basically just noise at this stage…But the reason I picked this chart is it serves as a timely risk-management reminder:5-10% corrections are fairly common,10-20% corrections are not uncommon,and 20-30%+ downsides happen about at least once a decade (so if you invest for long enough, you *definitely will* experience at least one major downturn)It’s a reminder to be prepared, either through process (e.g. having a good objective and reliable approach to lighten exposure to downside in bear markets, and paying attention to asset allocation and smart diversification) and/or psychology (having the right mindset to stay the course, havi
Gold, China, Buffett's bubble? - News and my thoughts from last week (10 Mar 2025)
News and my thoughts from last week (10 Mar 2025) History of gold - from Bloomberg China continues DUMPING US Treasuries: China's holdings fell by $77 billion in 2024 to $759 billion, the lowest in 15 YEARS. China is the world's second-largest foreign holder of US public debt after Japan. Are Treasuries losing safe haven status?! - X user Global Markets Investor Bloomberg - falling behind on car payments Car Buyers: The % of borrowers at least 2 months late on their car payments jumps to an all-time high - BarChart Trump says tariffs on Mexico and Canada could go higher than a 25% rate imposed earlier this week, per Bloomberg. The top 10% of earners in the U.S. now account for 49.7% of all spending in the US, per WSJ. China’s exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. doll
Layoffs, stormbound S&P500? My Investing Muse (10 Mar 2025)
My Investing Muse (10 Mar 2025) Layoffs & Closure news Hudson’s Bay, the Canadian department store chain founded in 1670, is preparing for a bankruptcy filing within days, people familiar with the matter said - WSJ Big 4 fears layoffs with government consulting contracts under review. - Economic Times (India) HPE to cut 2,500 employees as stock slides 19% on weak earnings outlook. Will HPE be able to ride out this storm? - CNBC ALX Oncology, a Bay Area biotech firm currently running clinical trials for its anticancer therapy, announced Wednesday that it’s laying off about 30% of its staff. - SF Gate Nearly 100 Companies Announce Layoffs In March, According To Reports - Forbes February saw 46 companies lay off 15,994 employees. When compared to January, layoffs surged in February, resul
Can Adobe (ADBE) Show Double-Digit Growth? Digital Media ARR and RPO Growth To Watch. Potential Undervalued Price To Get In.
$Adobe(ADBE)$ is expected to release its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings report on 12 March 2025 after market close. This upcoming earnings disclosure will be closely watched as market is expecting Adobe to report a consensus estimate for the revenue to grow by 9.11% to $5.65 billion as compared to same period one year ago. Adobe is projected to report earnings of $4.97 per share, which would represent year-over-year growth of 10.94%. For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates project earnings of $20.39 per share and a revenue of $23.45 billion, demonstrating changes of +10.69% and +9.04%, respectively, from the preceding year. Adobe is strengthening its product portfolio by employing AI to empower filmmakers at all levels. On 28 January 2025, the c
Kanzhun (BZ) Strategic Investments And Share Repurchase To Watch
$Kanzhun Limited(BZ)$ is expected to report its quarterly earnings for Q4 2024 on 11 Mar 2025 before the market open. Kanzhun is expected to report a 14.7% increase in revenue to CNY1.813 billion from CNY1.58 billion same period one year ago. The consensus estimate for Kanzhun earnings per share is expected to come in at CNY1.54 per share or 22 cents per share. Kanzhun (BZ) Positive Last Earnings Call Saw A 26.58% Change in Its Share Price Since Since Kanzhun reported its positive earnings call on 11 Dec 2024, its share price have seen a 26.58% change since. The earnings call reflected strong growth in revenue and user base, with strategic expansion in the blue-collar segment contributing positively. However, increased expenses and macroeconomic unc
$UtdHampshReitUSD(ODBU.SI)$ Basic Profile & Key Statistics Key Indicators Performance Highlight Gross revenue remained stable, but NPI declined slightly due to higher property expenses. Combined with rising finance costs, distributable income and DPU saw a YoY decline. Divestment On 14 August 2024, UHREIT divested Lowe’s and Sam’s Club within Hudson Valley Plaza at a premium above purchase price and book value. On 16 January 2025, UHREIT completed another divestment of Albany - Supermarket at valuation but above the purchase price. Related Parties Shareholding REIT Sponsor's Shareholding: Less Favorable REIT Manager's Shareholding: Less Favorable Directors of REIT Manager's Shareholding: Favorable Lease Profile Occupancy: Moderate Highest A
1.Pick of the Pack — Global Equity ValuationsThis month’s pick of the pack is a chart showing valuation indicators for the 3 major chunks of global equities...The key point is US is rolling over from extreme expensive, and RoW is cheap $S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image2.LatAm Equities are starting to look very interesting...This chart showing improved technicals and earnings momentum + combined with the backdrop of cheap valuations makes for a compelling bullish setup.Image3.Here's the annual chart for the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ -sure seems to move in cycles-looks like we're at/near a cycle base-certainly can think of some catalysts...Image
Venture Global Stock Crash -36% Yesterday! IPO In Jan25 YTD Stock Drop Over 60%
$Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$ Venture Global (NYSE: VG) stock faced significant sell-offs during Thursday's trading session, plunging 36%. The sharp decline followed the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell short of expectations. In addition to missing sales and earnings estimates, the company's guidance disappointed investors, raising concerns over rising costs for a major expansion project. Earning Overview Before the market opened, Venture Global reported Q4 earnings per share of $0.33 on revenue of $1.52 billion, missing analyst expectations of $0.76 per share on $1.92 billion in revenue. Sales declined 6.7% year over year, and both revenue and margins fell short of even cautious projections. To add to investor concerns, the company
Global Economic Panic Begins Destroying Trillions in Retaliation!
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Alright, Tiger, we’re heading straight into the eye of the storm. For over three years, we’ve known the U.S. economy was in serious trouble. Inflation remains high, and interest rates are still at extreme levels. In 2024, Biden attempted to mask the underlying issues through excessive deficit spending, borrowing over $1.8 trillion—equivalent to 6.4% of the total U.S. GDP—to keep the economy afloat. This flood of money artificially fueled consumption, distorted asset prices, and created a false sense of stability. But the time bomb was already ticking, and now it’s detonating under Trump’s administration. Despite all that spending, GDP growth for 2024 came
Broadcom Options Volume More Than Quadruples After AI-Fueled Earnings Beat $Broadcom(AVGO)$ options volume more than quadrupled Friday after the semiconductor giant released quarterly financial results that surpassed analysts’ estimates, buoyed by strong demand from artificial intelligence (AI). The company that supplies to $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ saw its shares jump 8.6% to close at $194.96. That made Broadc
Is it time to seek the Oracle?-Preview of the week starting 10 Mar 2025
Public Holidays Singapore, Hong Kong, China & the USA have no public holidays in the coming week. Economic Calendar (10 Mar 2025) Economic Calendar Notable Highlights JOLTs Job openings (Jan) will be shared. The previous number was 7.6 million. This coming update will help us understand the job market outlook and serve as a data reference for the Federal Reserve when making its next interest rate decision. The Core CPI and CPI should be the most watched economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the references used for Inflation. The last CPI (YoY) was 3.0%. If inflation remains stubborn, it could affect the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, likely causing some volatility in the market. The PPI data will also be released in the coming
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has been making a strong comeback, fueled by policy support, improving sentiment, and a rebound in Chinese equities. With markets in the West facing economic uncertainties, some investors are asking: Can HSI rally toward the key 30,000-point level? Bullish Case: The East is Rising China’s Policy Boost The Chinese government has stepped up support for the economy, from interest rate cuts to market-friendly reforms. Additional stimulus measures could further boost investor confidence. Valuation Rebound HSI stocks are trading at historically low valuations, making them attractive to long-term investors. Foreign funds are beginning to flow back into Chinese markets, reversing last year’s outflows. Sector Strength Technology and financial stocks are leading the rally,
When I first came across the post, I was appalled just by the mere mention. (see below) However, casting prejudice aside and reading the post, it really seems like the “perfect” solution. So here I am, sharing this “conspiracy” theory. The thing I learnt is, when it comes to all things Trump - never say never. Based on the available information, the theory that the Trump administration is intentionally engineering a recession appears to be a controversial and speculative idea. However, it is a theory that some Wall Street analysts are taking seriously. Conspiracy theory Below is an analysis of the plausibility. For the Theory (1) Strategic Economic Manipulation: Some analysts, like Nomura's Charlie McElligott, argue that the administration wants a controlled economic slowdown to force the
Capitalizing on Europe's Defense Boom: Investment Opportunities in EUAD, DFND:AU, and Beyond
On March 6, 2025, European Union leaders greenlit an ambitious €800 billion defense proposal, dubbed "ReArm Europe," aimed at bolstering the bloc’s military capabilities amid escalating global tensions. Unveiled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, this plan—sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties over U.S. support—promises to reshape capital markets and unlock significant investment opportunities, particularly in the military sector. For investors, ETFs like the Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF ( $Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF(EUAD)$ ) and the VanEck Global Defence ETF ( $Vaneck Global Defence Etf(DFND.AU)$ ) stand out as accessible ways