2.54K
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2025-03-29
Markets Rattled as Stagflation Fears Take Hold
Friday’s Market Performance: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -2.0% Dow Jones: -1.7% (-716 points) $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ : -2.7% Weekly Streak: 7 of the past 9 weeks in the red The latest economic data stoked fears of stagflation, a toxic mix of high inflation and stagnant growth. Key Indicators: Inflation Remains Sticky Core PCE Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge): +0.4% MoM (vs. 0.3% est.) Inflation expectations: 5% (highest since Nov. 2022) Consumer Spending is Slowing US Consumer Real spending: +0.1% last month Consumer sentiment: 57 (lowest in 2+ years) Tariff Uncertainty Adding to Woes Trump's 25% auto tariffs take effect next week Investors worry about higher costs and retaliation What is Stagflation? Stagf
TOPDoTrading: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 5600 level key for Acceleration ... and 5800 for a lull ...
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2025-03-29
Black Friday: Do Trump or High Valuations Drag Down the Market?
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 2.7%, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped nearly 2%. The combined market value of the seven major tech stocks evaporated by about $505 billion. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ closed down 4.88%, Meta and Amazon dropped 4.29%, Tesla fell 3.51%, Microsoft dropped 3.02%, Apple decreased by 2.66%, and Nvidia declined by 1.58%.Initially, reports suggested that tariffs set to be implemented on April 2 might be more targeted than initially proposed, leading to a brief rebound in the S&P 500. However, further news indicated that automakers may still face higher import taxes, and the market turned back down again. This back-and-forth messaging heightened investor a
TOP$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 📉📉📉 Well, the market’s been caught in a thundersnow storm, hasn’t it? Quite the understatement 😂! The NASDAQ plunged 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed nearly 2%, and tech giants, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, saw $505 billion evaporate in a single day. The Nasdaq 100’s now less than 7% from a bear market, with $QQQ slipping below the ,10% correction line and hurtling toward ,15%. If the bulls don’t muster some grit soon, we’re knocking on that bear market door. Black Friday didn’t just erase the week’s gains, it torched them, leaving us in a hailstorm of tariffs, valuations, and rattled sentiment. But as Warren Buffett, channelling Kipling, once said, “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs… Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” Time to cut through the chaos. What’s Driving the Tempest? Tariff Whiplash President Trump’s tariff saga is a lightning rod. Early hints that April 2 tariffs might be surgical sparked a fleeting S&P 500 rebound, bottoming at 5,505 on March 13th, then climbing 5% through March 26th as headlines quieted. But then came the thunder, a 25% auto tariff threat. Trump, per Bloomberg, “couldn’t care less” if automakers hike prices in response. That indifference flipped the script, undoing the rally and igniting panic. Producers are front running tariffs, ballooning the US trade deficit to a jaw dropping $301 billion over two months, rarely have we seen it even half that size. Goldman Sachs warns broad tariffs could shave 1.5% off GDP, Morgan Stanley says the uncertainty alone freezes investment. It’s a storm no one saw peaking this late. Valuations Teetering The Shiller P/E for the S&P 500’s at a decade high, screaming that stocks, especially tech, are priced for a dreamscape. Unlike the standard P/E, skewed by one year flukes, the Shiller averages earnings over years for clarity. Tech profit growth crested in 2024, and with most sectors missing targets, the market’s questioning these heights. Amazon’s eight week losing streak, its worst since 2022, and Meta’s six week skid signal a reckoning. JPMorgan’s strategists see little margin for error, a stumble here could cascade. Inflation’s Hot Sting Friday’s Core PCE data landed like hail, 2.8% annually, up from 2.6%, with January revised to 2.7%. That’s when the equity slide accelerated, hot inflation plus tariff costs is a brutal combo. Sentiment’s so polarised it’s sending shockwaves, with investors caught in a bull trap after misjudging tariff relief as a peak. Risk appetite surged, then crashed. Hedge Fund Signals • Bridgewater: Ray Dalio’s team is doubling down on gold and inflation hedges, eyeing a correction as tariffs and inflation bite. • Renaissance: The quant masters are quietly buying small caps, a contrarian move betting on value when giants falter. Did Black Friday Wipe the Slate? Yes, and then some. Whatever crept up earlier in the week, buoyed by that tariff “relief” narrative, got buried. The auto tariff jolt, valuation doubts, and PCE heat turned Black Friday into a reckoning. It’s the overreaction Buffett warns us to weather with a steady hand. My Strategy: Hedged and Poised So, what’s my play? I’m not slamming doors or chasing stop losses, that’s just locking in losses mid storm. I’m hedged with $FSM, a gold and silver miner that’s been my anchor. Gold’s up 70% in 16 months, hitting a $20.75 trillion market cap, $1.25 trillion more than the top 10 assets combined. It’s screaming safety amid inflation and chaos, and FSM’s dual exposure could shine. I was ready for this shakeout, and it’s paying off. I’m not adding yet, October looks grimmer with tariffs unresolved and valuations untested, but I’m eyeing small caps and inflation plays when the dust settles. Buffett’s unplugged Omaha vibe feels like an edge here, tuning out the noise lets me see the board clearly. Trump or Valuations: The Real Culprit? It’s a duo. Trump’s “couldn’t care less” tariff stance keeps markets guessing, Morgan Stanley calls it a sentiment killer. The S&P’s March rally unravelled the second auto tariffs hit, proving his moves are live wires. But the Shiller P/E was already flashing red, tech’s stretched thin. Trump’s the spark, valuations are the dry timber. Together, they’re a volatility vortex until trade clears or prices reset. The Takeaway This is a market wrestling with tariff tremors, valuation vertigo, and inflation’s sting. The Nasdaq’s bear market flirtation, Amazon and Meta’s slumps, and a $301 billion trade deficit paint a fragile picture. Buffett’s calm, distilled in Omaha far from the fray, pairs with gold’s surge to signal patience over panic. I’m hedged with $FSM, waiting for October’s downside to play out, then striking when the storm breaks. The crowd’s reeling, I’m ready for the reward. 📢 Please Like, Repost, and Follow me for sharp setups, stock trends, and actionable insights 🚀📈 I’m all about spotting the next movers and sharing strategies that deliver results. Let’s trade smarter and grow together 🍀🍀🍀 Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Ah_Meng Join in the convo mate! Ah_Meng, since you’re already hedged in precious wisdom, drop another nugget here. This conversation could use a little more sparkle from your vault! [Grin] [Happy] [ShakeHands]
10.66K
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2025-03-29
TSLA - There’s a 65% chance the bottom is in
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Ugly close to the week — but BX still printed a higher low 🔥When that happens, there’s a 65% chance the bottom is in.Bots are loaded, positions are set.If it’s a fakeout? We take the L on the chin and move on.No room for emotions in this game.Q2 upside targets: $360–$400Still gotta get through deliveries and earnings — let’s see how it plays out.ImagePS： Every time the market gets shaky, you can feel the shift online—panic, blame, and noise.But we're different.Calm. Clear. Focused.It’s a reminder:Most people follow the herd.We don’t.Learn to embrace losing. The only way out is through.
TOP"The only way out is through". ...Good advice for long holders of volitile stocks.
2.61K
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2025-03-29
Daily Hot Stock Charts - AAPL & MSTR
1. $Apple(AAPL)$ I hope I’m wrong, but this doesn’t look great.On the weekly chart, we broke below a key liquidity zone. Even though price might push back up short term, I expect a rejection inside the red band.The monthly BX just closed red as well — a major warning sign. If that holds, it could confirm a multi-month selloff targeting the $200–$180 zone.ImageImage2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ Was watching for a confirmed higher low — which would’ve given a 65% chance of a breakout to all-time highs.Didn’t happen.Instead, we got a clear rejection.Weekly BX is now showing lower lows, so I’ve dropped my long bias on MSTR.No emotions.No bag holding.No praying.Image
2.95K
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2025-03-29
SPY - I still think $520 is on the table for Q2
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ For the first time since 2022, the S&P 500 BX closed 🔴This isn’t a signal to short the market…But it definitely isn’t an ideal environment for upside either.The monthly trend is still holding above the bias, and I still think $520 is on the table for Q2.I was looking for a short-term bounce to $590 before the sell-off — that’s where I planned to enter puts.But we never got it… and at this level, the RVR just isn’t worth it.Best case? We bounce in April to $580–$585, and I get the short setup I was waiting for.Image
1.71K
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2025-03-29
Trade Journal Lessons & Market Realities
i) experience from referring to my mistakes from my trade journal periodically.ii) There's no upside setup that's compelling iii) I have quite a sizable position in gold futures built since January. so I'm not 100% cash at any point of time this year to feel the need to do something.iv) I have been keeping myself occupied on physical commercial real estate deals. actually bought 2 more units this month, so all the viewing, prospecting with agents, liaison with bankers, and conveyancing lawyers take up quite a bit of my attention. I will probably share more in next few weeks, hope to motivate and inspire some of you what trading can really mean to your life financially.
2.53K
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2025-03-29
Magnificent 7 & Sector Groups in Focus
Below are a list of magnificent 7 & group based setups in my watchlist for post reaction to Core PCE Price Index m/m in this recessionary and tariff-driven environment right now.Inverse: $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ $Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares(SPXS)$ $Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares(TZA)$ $Tradr 2X Short Innovation Daily ETF(SARK)$ $Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares(DRV)$ $Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3x Shares(LABD)$ $DIREXION DAILY AMZN BEAR 1X SHAR
1.41K
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2025-03-29
SPY hit $558 first 🎯on the breakdown under $565
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ hit $558 first 🎯on the breakdown under $565. If you took puts with us comment "puts" and if you want access to our DAILY analysis each day comment "help"These notes will help you with:✅market sentiment and context✅key levels for SPY✅what to focus on and targetsSPY key level for a solid bounce play was $558 posted for you BEFORE market even opens. Always plan your trade ahead.We have a deep understanding for technical analysis, fundamentals analysis and economic data for SPY
1.13K
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2025-03-29
Sector and Indix ETFs Trend Strength of the Last 10 days
Sector ETFs Strength Trend Meter Bar Chart $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ $Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLC)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU)$ $Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV)$ $Consumer Staples Select Sec
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2025-03-29
Large and Mega Cap Companies Trend Strength of the Last 10 days
Large Cap Companies Strength Trend Meter Bar Chart $Banco Santander SA(SAN)$ $Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA(BBVA)$ $Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM)$ $Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX)$ $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$ $Consolidated Edison(ED)$ $Edison(EIX)$ $Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ $ING Groep NV(ING)$ $Monster Beverage(MNST)$ $Reddit(RDDT)$
1.66K
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2025-03-29
SPX Faces Bearish Perfect Storm
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Imminent Bearish MACD Crossover on the Monthly, and the RSI divergence adds warning signs to the picture. Two ingredients for the last three bear markets.Is there any reason to expect something different?➡️This chart has been carefully studied since January, follow along to navigate the turbulence. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Image $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : The daily chart lacks immediate support, aside from the low-volume shelf where price briefly paused today. Despite this, the strong bearish candl
5.86K
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2025-03-29
IAU iShares Gold ETF and RING iShares Gold Miners ETF are my Tactical Plays to ride the Bear Market
🌟🌟🌟With President Donald Trump's Liberation Day coming on April 2, US stocks sold off on Friday as investors were jolted by hotter than expected inflation data and the forthcoming tariffs announcements. All 3 US indexes fell with the Dow Jones down 1.7% while S&P500 dropped almost 2% and Nasdaq100 is down 2.7%. In contrast Spot Gold prices surged to a record high on Friday, reaching USD 3,086.70 per ounce earlier in the session. This can be attributed to investors seeking a safe haven asset amidst concerns about a potential global trade war, triggered by US tariffs. $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$
TOPFantastic Wins 👏🎉. Congratulations 👏🎉. @Barcode @Shyon @JC888
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2025-03-29
Daily Charts - Relative Value Trinity vs Passive Activists
1.Passive ActivistsThe rise of passive investing has lead to a weird perversion of corporate governance -- who gets the vote? Are we happy leaving key shareholder decisions to a nameless faceless corporate with hidden agendas?Things are changing here, but it highlights some unintended consequences $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Relative Value TrinityIt looks like we have turned the corner on this global equity mega-theme — especially for global vs US stocks...We are still so early on this onethis theme will be measured in years not monthsImage3.Defensives have gained ground in relative performance terms through the correction, and still look extremely compelling as a contraria
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2025-03-29
Top 10 SaaS Clouds in enterprise software this week
This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Veeva(VEEV)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: The new
5.97K
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2025-03-29
Here are top 10 positions of QQQ
The Nasdaq 100 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is one of, if not the hardest index to beat.Here are its top 10 positions👇🏼 $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Costco(COST)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$
TOPBeating the index is hard and time in the market is more important than timing the market. However, at times when you can see signs of a change in the direction the market is going, you can introduce $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ for a small short term trade to hedge during a downturn or $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ for a small short term trade for a boost when the downturn has ended.
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2025-03-29
SPX got CRUSHED beginning the next major wave down
As warned with CONVICTION, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ got CRUSHED beginning the next major wave down.Everything is going exactly as projected, and lean remains we see further downside to 5400 w/ potential to extend all the way down to the 5120.As long as we remain below 5650, we should trace out 5-waves down on the fractal timeframe. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ ImageImageBig opportunity for SPX shorts! 🚨I break down
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2025-03-29
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT): A Bullish Outlook on the Quantum Revolution
Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has emerged as a compelling player in the rapidly evolving quantum computing sector. With its stock price rebounding from a low of $4.37 in early March 2025 to $8.45 as of March 28, 2025, QUBT has shown strong short-term momentum. Coupled with recent developments, a promising industry outlook, and favorable technical indicators, QUBT presents a strong case for a bullish investment thesis. This report explores the reasons to be optimistic about QUBT and its potential to capitalize on the quantum computing revolution. Company Overview Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi) is an innovative company specializing in integrated photonics and quantum optics technologies, delivering affordable quantum machines. Its flagship products include the Dirac-3 system—a room-temperature
TOPIt may not be today. It may not be tomorrow. But one day this is going back above $20.
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2025-03-29
AppLovin Under Fire: Navigating the Third Short-Seller Storm—Opportunity or Risk?
AppLovin ( $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ ), a leading ad tech company, faced its third short-seller attack of 2025 on March 27, when Muddy Waters Research released a scathing report alleging that the company’s ad tactics “systematically” violate app store terms of service by “impermissibly extracting” user data from platforms like Meta, Reddit, and Alphabet. The report triggered a 20% plunge in AppLovin’s stock price, dropping it from a previous close of $327.620 to a close of $261.700, with a low of $252.510. This marked the steepest one-day decline in the company’s history since its 2021 IPO, wiping out nearly $17 billion in market value. As the dust settles, investors are left with a critical question: Is this a buying opportunity, or should they
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2025-03-28
Global Currency Devaluation Has Begun
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Global Exporters in Crisis: The Devaluation Race Begins The effects of America's trade war are now surfacing in unexpected ways, extending far beyond direct tariffs. Central banks worldwide are in a state of panic as the slowing U.S. economy leads to reduced demand for the dollar. Since Trump took office, the dollar has been steadily weakening, approaching its 2014 lows. This marks the third consecutive month of decline, with the trend likely to persist for at least another quarter. Because global trade is still primarily conducted in U.S. dollars, this depreciation creates a major problem for everyone. For the U.S., a weaker dollar means higher domestic inflation, as
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2025-03-28
US Credit Reveals Consumer Collapse! Global Bank Warns: 50% Chance of US Recession
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The U.S. Economy’s Fragile Foundation If there’s a single, ultimate indicator of the health of the U.S. economy, we might have found it today. The economy often appears to be a complex system, but at its core, one simple equation holds true: U.S. deficits prop up economic growth. The Unsustainable Growth Model Last year, the U.S. ran a deficit of 6.4% to generate just 2.3% GDP growth—meaning every dollar of government spending produced less than 50 cents in real economic progress. This is clearly unsustainable. So, what happens if we pull the plug and dramatically cut government spending? We risk collapsing the primary driver of growth. Bessent’s Vision: A Controlled L