To The Moon

SPX is approaching key resistance at 7,299 while showing early divergence signals. IWM remains bullish but is starting to show initial momentum weakness, though trend structure is still intact. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Don't fight the trend until key levels are breached. The recent indecisive candle is suggesting to be an early signal as the Stochastic divergence continues to extend. It is a matter of when, not if. Next major resistance: $7,299, the "Tom Lee Warning Zone". 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Bullish until proven otherwise by the loss of key levels. In the meantime, watch the emerging bearish MACD cross. This signal preceded minor consolidations (A & B) and one deeper pullback (C). Current

The market is grinding higher, but the internals are sending mixed signals. While smart money remains steady—reducing the risk of a sharp selloff—rising retail confidence, gap-heavy price action, and divergences point toward a near-term consolidation rather than continued straight-line upside. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Dumb money confidence is strengthening while the SP500 continues to move higher, leaving behind gaps and indecisive candles. The good news is that smart money remains stable; so a major decline (-5%) is not expected, though a healthy consolidation (-1% -2%) is possible. 2. $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ The Software ETF showed resilience this week, with a 1.7% gain. The bounce

Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then. I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included: “Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis” My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled pric

This week has been one of the most consequential for the 2026 market, defined by a historic Federal Reserve meeting and a flood of top-tier economic data. The Fed opted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision was marked by a rare level of internal dissent not seen since 1992. Four officials broke from the majority, signaling a significant rift over how to handle the “oil shock” caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. With Brent crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$ hovering above $100 per barrel and headline inflation spiking to 3.3% in March, the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach is being severely tested by rising energy costs and a resilient labor market, where

Markets are flashing mixed signals—index-level strength is holding, but internal breadth continues to weaken. With sentiment elevated and volatility compressing, both the S&P 500 and key mega caps like Meta are approaching inflection points where the next decisive move could define the near-term trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bulls managed to avoid the bearish MACD crossover that seemed imminent last month, mirroring the price action seen in 2018. Beyond that, the monthly candle shows conviction, a move that is usually followed by bullish continuation when a reversal begins as highlighted. The divergence with stock participation persists, as the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has dropped to only 50% of the index constituents. Greed sits

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The divergence with stock participation persists, as the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has dropped to only 50% of the index constituents. Greed sits at 64, and the indecisive price action suggests a significant move is imminent. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallied for three consecutive weeks when it bounced, gaining over 3% each week. Such an occurrence is rare in the stock market; the move was so rapid that apathy is the common human reaction, similar to what is observed during a breadth thrust signal. Today, the market is consolidating after this sharp move. Considering the high expectations seen across social media and mainstream news for a decline, I am providing a

Markets are flashing early signs of exhaustion after a strong run. Sentiment has shifted toward extreme optimism, breadth is weakening, and key indicators are entering overbought territory. While the broader trend remains intact, these conditions typically precede a period of consolidation or a healthy pullback before the next leg higher. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Dumb Money Confidence has entered the Extreme Optimism zone, a level that historically coincides with index consolidations or healthy pullbacks. Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), while Smart Money Confidence is neutral ahead of major earnings reports. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Stock participation has deteriorated

CHOOSE YOUR RISK THIS WEEK: Tech giants are heading into earnings with gaps and overheated in the daily: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : Overbought RSI | 1st Gap: -7% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : Mild RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -8% $Alphabet(GOOG)$ : RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -7% Gap fill this week? $Apple(AAPL)$ Weekly bullish MACD crossovers usually precede average moves of +5% within three weeks. With earnings scheduled for this Thursday, the week is key to confirm the signal, currently brewing. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Are breakouts bullish? They are. Just be aware that the la

The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%. B

Markets are holding a constructive tone, with equities showing signs of continued upside despite short-term consolidation, while Bitcoin maintains strong momentum within a sustained bull trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ During the last 10 years, every time the Stochastic bounced from oversold area and made it above 50, the index maintained bullish continuation and consolidated when the oscillator was overbought (+80) with both lines. There is room for further gains, as %D is at 65%. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Indecision at the Top: The price has moved between 702.5 and 711 this week, building a small volume shelf. Any loss of today’s low could send the price to $695 (volume shelf below), validating