To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Another Inverse "U-Turn": This has been the price action mood for over a month. Looks like a seventh week of "fake bounces," is coming adding another arch to the structure. $654 is the the primary downside destination for the week. On Saturday, I posted the following outlook: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is bearish below $6,700.4. I also included specific volatility levels and additional technical indicators to monitor. This morning, I shared a chart via chat and email suggesting a bearish reversal. This outlook is based on yesterday’s vanishing rally and current bearish conditions, with both the SPY and $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ trading below the

The Federal Reserve held rates steady today at 3.50% – 3.75%, as the market expected. But the real story was not the decision itself, it was what Powell said. When there is a FOMC meeting, you don’t pay attention to the rate decision alone, the Fed Chair words are more important. Similar when you listen to an earnings call, beating expectations is not as important as the guidance. Powell said the Fed was not making as much progress on inflation as hoped. “The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation” On oil and the Iran War: “Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East. In the near

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Daily Shooting Star: Yesterday's highs were recovered, but a lack of conviction prints the same setup seen last week. Reclaiming the 5DMA is positive, but vanishing moves persist at downtrend resistance below the 10DMA. Levels must hold through #FOMC, or expect a déjà vu. Many resistances at this zone. For that reason the lack of conviction is something big to watch. The reaction to interest rate decision will tell. Bearish until proven otherwise. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : The anticipated spike played out, bringing price back into the Bollinger range. However, today's most critical takeaway is the vanishing rally. The downtrend remains intact; price must conquer today’s high b

Market indicators suggest the selloff may be approaching a timing bottom, with $SPY money flows nearing levels seen during past crash periods. Meanwhile, $NDX is sitting at a critical support confluence near the 200DMA, where a breakdown could accelerate downside momentum. Among the Magnificent Seven tracked by $MAGS, only $GOOG, $AAPL, and $NVDA remain above their key long-term trend support. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The money flow is nearing bottoming levels seen during the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025 crashes. A bottom is near in terms of time, not necessarily in the magnitude of flush. A bounce must be sustained in short and long term. See the local bottom of March 2022 for context. 2. $NASDAQ 100

The stock market has been characterized by exceptionally choppy price action over the last seven weeks. We witnessed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ go nowhere for three months, spanning the final quarter of 2025 through January 2026. That directionless route is found a resolution to the bearish side as anticipated at the end of January when this publication anticipated “Cracks Under the Surface”. However, the most striking feature of the current market is the lack of conviction. If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles

Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level. The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the “C” marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week. The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support an

U.S. equities endured extreme volatility this week, recording a third consecutive weekly decline and establishing new closing lows for 2026. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is now down -3.1% YTD, converging with the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ trails closely with a -2.8% loss for the year. Escalating conflict in the Middle East remained the main driver of market pressure. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy costs soaring. Oil futures $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ closed at $99. Rising fuel costs combined with unexpected labor market weakness to stoke fears of slowing growth and rising

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Even during persistent downtrends, such as the 2025 tariff crash, breaching the lower Bollinger Band has consistently represented an extreme condition that triggers relief bounces. No exception. There is no doubt a short squeeze is coming considering also the McClellan Oscillator that is more oversold than it was in the 2025 bottom. The key point is to watch if $6,882 is recovered, that would validate a solid and sustainable bounce. The bearish move is overextended as posted previously, and seasonality favors a bounce. $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ has the same overextended setup as the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Fo

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : Two valid perspectives on this chart: A) Bearish: Every bounce has faded; lower highs have persisted for a month. B) Bullish: The volume shelf is holding, and a Stochastic crossover suggests continuation. My take: Bullish above $676; breakdown below. ⚖️ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : $601 The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022 bear market lows. Most of the bearish move is in. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

On Sunday night, Crude Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ reached the extreme overbought conditions that I highlighted using the chart below in my Substack Notes and on X. For the paid community, I provided that same analysis in our private chat, including the weekly levels where a reversal was most likely to occur. The overbought conditions relative to the Bollinger Bands reached historic extremes, surpassing levels seen during the 1990 Gulf War and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Unlike the price-driven peaks of 2008, this overbought conditions are the result of rapid price action fueled by extreme sentiment and a geopolitical conflict. The high of the week so far has been $119, near the modeled level of $122.9, the price has retraced sin