To The Moon

U.S. equities endured extreme volatility this week, recording a third consecutive weekly decline and establishing new closing lows for 2026. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is now down -3.1% YTD, converging with the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ trails closely with a -2.8% loss for the year.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East remained the main driver of market pressure. An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent energy costs soaring. Oil futures $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ closed at $99. Rising fuel costs combined with unexpected labor market weakness to stoke fears of slowing growth and rising consumer prices. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%.

The energy shock also took a toll on high-growth technology companies. Major tech firms faced selling pressure as rising electricity costs squeezed margins at power-hungry AI data centers. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ was particularly hard hit, shedding roughly $120 billion in market value over the week.

In sharp contrast, digital assets showed resilience. Bitcoin is up this week +7% as of now, recovering its Central Monthly level. Ethereum also outperformed the broader market, gaining nearly 9% during the week.

The Support and Resistance levels shared last week continue to accurately frame price action. The S&P 500 found firm support at our modeled $6,667 level to start the week, followed by a tactical spike toward the $6,857 zone. However, persistent choppy conditions triggered a reversal on Wednesday; the index breached its Central Weekly Level (CWL) and ended the week back in the bearish zone, retesting its weekly lows.

The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ followed an identical trajectory, oscillating between $611 and $590, both levels modeled last week, executing a sharp “inverse U-turn” mid-week. This pattern was mirrored by the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , which tagged our $245 support level on both Monday and Friday, despite a brief intra-week spike above its CWL.

This “inverse U-turn” was observed across the board, impacting $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, and even $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ . Of the equities we track, only $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Costco(COST)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ managed to close above their respective bullish/bearish CWL thresholds, with $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ showing notable strength due to current oil price dynamics.

As anticipated last Saturday, price action has remained exceptionally choppy. Today, I want to illustrate the specific implications of $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ thresholds and price positioning relative to the Central Monthly Level (CML). These factors signaled the current environment, a series of rapid reversals within a single week. I touched on this last Wednesday, and today, I want to make those concepts graphic.

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