To The Moon

U.S. to China from 145% to 30%, another 24% suspended for 90 days, China to U.S. from 125% to 10%, another 24% suspended for 90 days; reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. cut to 10%, China cut to 10%, and both sides have another 24% suspended.Summary: Much better than expectations.The talks are the two sides in the election cycle under the pressure of the "stop-loss" compromise: the Chinese side to cooperate in exchange for tariffs to reduce the pressure, the United States side to "pause" instead of "cancel" to maintain deterrence, the essence is still the"Time for space" expedient.The real test lies in: when the "joint statement" aura faded, the two sides in the 232 investigation, high-tech control and other structural contradictions to find a new balance.From "80%" to "24% + 10%": the art of neg

Markets are finally beginning to accept Powell's message that the Fed is not in a hurry to start lowering interest rates.After Powell reiterated the Fed's "wait-and-see" stance on monetary policy last week,Traders have aggressively increased bets that the benchmark lending rate will fall by less than 75 basis points in 2025, and the first rate cut is not expected to begin until July.Even more shocking is that options traders are aggressively building hedging positions against the risk that the Fed may not ease monetary policy this year,One of the growing positions does not expect the Fed to cut interest rates in 2025.Before the latest employment data showed that hiring remained strong in April, swap contracts had indicated that interest rate cuts were highly likely as early as next month.I