To The Moon

US-Iran Ceasefire: Oil Volatility vs. Risk Appetite Brent surged to ~$99.35/bbl (+63.24% YTD), with back-months pricing a sustained Hormuz disruption premium while front-month prints hover near $94–$95. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ climbed to 19.50 as US equities sold off ( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -0.63%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -0.59%). For Hong Kong positioning, this creates a sharpened binary: failure = oil gaps toward $100+, energy names rally ( $CNOOC(00883)$ , $PETROCHINA(00857)$ , $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ reporting Friday) but broad ris

$Apple(AAPL)$    On April 20, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ An official major personnel change was announced – Tim Cook will step down as CEO on September 1, 2026, and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His legendary 15-year tenure leading Apple is coming to an end. At the same time, John Ternus, Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering with 25 years at Apple, will assume the role of CEO and join the board on the same day. This news quickly drew market attention, with Apple's after-hours stock price falling by about 0.6%, as the company's market cap had just surpassed the $4 trillion mark at the time of the announcement. Under Tim Cook’s 15-year leadership (2011-2026), Apple’s market cap soared

My stock in focus today is $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ , which delivered a solid beat and raised its 2026 outlook above $18.25, ahead of expectations. The stock jumped nearly 7%, signaling renewed confidence after recent challenges. Management also emphasized a prudent approach, suggesting they are not overpromising despite strong results. The key highlight is cost control. Its medical cost ratio came in at 83.9%, well below estimates, showing strong execution despite industry cost pressures. Higher government payments also helped offset weaker Medicaid enrollment. This indicates the company is navigating policy & demand shifts better than peers. Optum remains a weak spot, with profits down as the company restructures, but this looks like a strategic

Here's a comprehensive, bullish counter-article based on the title "Hyperscaler Earnings 'Fraud'? Reality Check: AI Investments Are Paying Off Now". It directly tackles Michael Burry's accusation of "earnings fraud" via extended depreciation on AI GPUs/servers (estimating ~$176 billion understated depreciation from 2026–2028, potentially overstating Meta earnings by ~21% and Oracle by ~27%), while shifting focus to tangible 2025–early 2026 evidence of accelerating cloud/AI revenue, backlog growth, monetization, and productivity signals from hyperscalers as of April 2026.Hyperscaler Earnings "Fraud"? Reality Check: AI Investments Are Paying Off NowMichael Burry has aggressively labeled hyperscaler accounting practices as one of the "most common forms of fraud in the modern era." His core cl

From my perspective, the $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ –Anthropic deal is less a “circular trade” and more about locking in demand. It may resemble the OpenAI– $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ dynamic, but the key is whether AWS revenue accelerates. If that $100B commitment materializes, it becomes a real backlog, not a bubble. I’m more bullish on the Anthropic + Bedrock layer than pure compute. Compute is capital-heavy, but enterprise lock-in is the real moat. As companies embed Claude via Amazon Web Services, switching costs rise — similar to $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ’s model. On $300, a re-rating like $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ is possible but needs clearer

For me, $Apple(AAPL)$ ’s earnings are more a “margin vs narrative” test than a pure upside surprise. iPhone and Mac strength is already well flagged, so the key isn’t just beating EPS—it’s whether Apple can defend its valuation during leadership transition while keeping margins stable. On memory costs, I lean toward Apple passing through part of the increase rather than fully absorbing it. DRAM and NAND inflation is too large to ignore, and absorbing it would hurt long-term earnings power. Modest price increases with stable demand would actually be more bullish, as it reinforces pricing power. Overall, I’m cautiously positive but not expecting a breakout. The real catalysts are WWDC and AI/Siri progress, plus the iPhone Fold cycle in 2026. If App