$ETHU Update: The Bullish Pennant May Still Be Intact
A quick update on $Volatility Shares 2x Ether ETF(ETHU)$ / $ETHUSD. One technical detail worth watching is that a short-term breakdown from a bullish flag or pennant does not automatically invalidate the broader setup — especially when the move is driven by a single sharp red day. What matters more is what happens after the breakdown. If the rate of decline begins to slow and price starts forming a sequence of higher lows, that can signal that buyers are gradually stepping back in and attempting to regain control. That’s exactly what I’m watching here. 👀 For now, I’m still treating the broader $ETHUSD bullish pennant structure as intact. The key is whether ETH can continue building higher lows and reclaim the levels lost during the initial breakd
$NQ Divergence Is Back, Is Another Correction Setting Up?
The multi-month divergence has returned, and it’s becoming one of the key setups I’m watching right now. While $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ and $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2609(YMmain)$ pushed well above their June highs, $NQ Minerals PLC(NQMIY)$ remains significantly below its June peak. That disconnect matters. Now all three major futures indices are pulling back, bringing back a setup that previously preceded the correction earlier this year. ⚠️ 📊 The Divergence $ES and $YM managed to make fresh highs while $NQ failed to confirm. When one major index repeatedly lags while the others continue higher, it can signal that market breadth and lead
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is heading into a turbulent seasonal month. Over the last 40 years, the SPX has seen a positive close in September just 48% of the time. This is well below the 72% historical positive average that I mention as the benchmark based on the last 70 years; anything notably above or below that reference gains relevance. Worth noting as well, the average move for September over the past 40 years has been -0.84%. A 48% win rate is a significant deviation to consider, and its relevance increases when you see that August is closing in the green this year. When I analyzed the years individually, many of the green Septembers were preceded by a red August, and vice versa, meaning that the window for a healthy pullback is narrowing. This
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ With this earnings report, NVIDIA has cemented its status as the Federal Reserve of the AI world. Going forward, its earnings releases will be roughly equivalent to macroeconomic data releases. I haven't figured out the full implications yet, but one thing is clear: the nature of the company has changed. Wednesday's largest block trade combo was Sell Put 200 + Buy Call 220 + Sell Call 230. As today's opening showed — opening at 222, hitting 225 intraday — it was remarkably precise. Next week, there's no need to look at open interest data or GEX analysis. Just reference today's intraday block trade: the September 4-expiry 235 Put $NVDA 20260904 235.0 PUT$ — volume 9,1
[HARD TRUTH] Why Most Beginners Blow Up Their Accounts (It’s NOT Their Strategy)
You can give a beginner a trading strategy with a proven 70% win rate and a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio, and they will still manage to blow up their account within 90 days. Then, they’ll jump onto Reddit or YouTube, flame the strategy as a "scam," and search for a new indicator or secret setup. Here is the cold, hard truth of institutional risk management: Accounts do not blow up because of bad trading strategies. They blow up because of poor capital allocation, asymmetric math, and emotional execution. 1. The Asymmetry of Loss (The Math That Destroys Accounts) $Micron Technology(MU)$ When you lose capital, the recovery work increases exponentially. Most new traders do not realize that drawdown math is not linear—it is severely stacked against you. If
$英伟达(NVDA)$ VERA RUBIN SUPPLY CHAIN Rubin is becoming a system-level buildout with rising content across memory, packaging, networking, power and cooling pushing the opportunity well beyond the GPU: • Memory sits with$美光科技(MU)$ ,$SK海力士(SKHY)$ & Samsung supplying the DRAM & HBM feeding Rubin accelerators while $闪迪(SNDK)$ adds exposure to storage layer around AI systems • Advanced packaging runs through$台积电(TSM)$ ,$艾马克技术公司(AMKR)$ &$
[RISK MANAGEMENT] The 1% Rule That Keeps You In The Game
Ask any funded prop trader or institutional desk manager what keeps them employed, and they won't point to a secret indicator or a 90% win-rate algorithm. They will point to a single survival constraint: The 1% Rule. Most retail traders trade based on conviction. When they "feel" a setup is guaranteed, they increase their risk to 5%, 10%, or even 20% of their account. A single unexpected news spike or liquidity sweep destroys weeks of progress. Trading isn't about being right on every trade it's about staying solvent long enough for your statistical edge to play out over hundreds of trades. The Power of Fixed-Percentage Sizing The core concept behind the 1% Rule is that your position size dynamically scales with your equity. As your account grows, your dollar risk increases. As your accoun
Stop Gambling In The Market: Use This Position Sizing Formula
Most traders don't blow up their accounts because of bad entry setups. They blow up because they trade arbitrary position sizes. If your strategy is to buy "100 shares" or "1 full lot" on every single trade regardless of where your stop-loss sits, you aren't trading—you are running a high-variance casino strategy. The Retail Trap: Fixed Sizing vs. Fixed Risk Here is how 90% of retail traders position size: Pick an entry price. Pick an arbitrary number of shares or contracts (e.g., "$5,000 worth"). Set a stop-loss wherever the chart "looks good." Why this leads to account blowups: If Trade A has a 2% stop-loss distance and Trade B has a 10% stop-loss distance, taking $5,000 position sizes on both means you are risking 5x more dollar value on Trade B. One bad volatile trade erases five good
[TECHNICAL] The Golden Rule of Survival: Master How to Calculate Your Position Size and Risk
Welcome to another essential technical breakdown. We keep getting great questions about "textbook plays" and the influence of sophisticated algorithms (algos) in modern trading. While algorithms are certainly smarter today, they still operate based on mathematical rules of risk, probability, and market structure. The absolute foundational rule that lets you survive long enough to even compete against those algos is known as The Golden Rule of Survival: Master Your Position Size. If you cannot calculate exactly what you stand to lose before you execute a trade, you are not trading; you are gambling. Here is the technical breakdown of how to size your positions correctly, step-by-step, complete with a clean visual example. The Difference Between Risk and Position Value The biggest technical
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ After breaking out from its last earnings, MSFT have been consolidating for 2 over weeks, which during these 2 weeks seem to be forming a CUP and handle chart. However there isn't a handle being form yet, or perhaps there won't be a handle and this action is going straight up with its current bullish momentum. Either way, technical is looking good. 👍
$SPY 20260828 773.0 CALL$ Today is a gambling day. The price movement is extraordinary. Thank you Warsh for the miracle. Lesson: check the financial calender before you trade. Market emotion is definitely something day traders want to avoid.
$SPY Rejects Sell Zone; $IREN $30 Becomes the Key Level
Hey everyone 👋 A few updates on the names I’m watching closely right now. The overall picture hasn’t changed much, but some levels are becoming increasingly important. 🎯 📉 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ — Still Bullish, But Watching September $SPY is currently rejecting right inside the Smart Money Sell Zone. I remain long-term bullish, but I’m still expecting a 2%–3% correction in September. For me, that doesn't change the bigger trend. I’m simply not interested in chasing strength when price is approaching an area where sellers have previously stepped in. ⚠️ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ — $30 Is the Line in the Sand $IREN needs to hold $30. That level is important for two reasons: it’s the last major level on the
40 Stocks With the Strongest Weekly Moves Above $1B Market Cap
Hey everyone 👋 Here’s this week’s list of the 40 strongest-moving stocks with market caps above $1 billion, grouped by industry. The standout theme is software and infrastructure, with cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure and application software accounting for a large share of the list. Capital markets and precious-metals names also made a strong showing. 🔥 💻 Software & Infrastructure Software · Application $Bending Spoons S.p.A.(BSP)$$Webull Corp(BULL)$$Salesforce.com(CRM)$$Elastic N.V.(ESTC)$$Figma(FIG)$$FrogAds, Inc.(FROG)$
$AI Models Hit a Privacy Wall as Zero Data Retention Becomes a Buying Factor
FT recently dropped an article showing the spend split between different Anthropic models (indexed back to June). What was interesting about this chart (below) was that the recent growth across July wasn’t driven by Fable, but by Opus 5. Many people asked questions about this. Why isn’t Fable 5 driving more adoption? The overwhelming response to the question of “why has Fable 5 seen more lackluster adoption” was zero data retention (or ZDR). This topic has been front and center this summer. OpenAI wrote a blog post about it a few weeks ago. In my opinion, it’s becoming increasingly clear that users have a preference when it comes to data retention policies, and if you believe the majority of responses to Martin’s tweet, the labs have some decisions to make! So what is Zero Data Retention?
$SPX Slips as Warsh Turns Hawkish and Semis Break Down
In his first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish tone centered heavily on price stability: Inflation Focus: Warsh stated that with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge sitting at 3.7%, prices are running too far above the 2% target. He warned, “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” Monetary Tool Reaffirmation: He clarified that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s principal tool to combat price pressures, and noted he would be “hard pressed” to describe current financial conditions as restrictive. Limiting Forward Guidance: Warsh advocated for a “quieter” central bank that avoids overcommitting to futu