3.83K
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09-01
9/1 Pre-Market Thoughts: The Worst Month Is Here
I. Key Events Rates and Dollar Both Rise, Risk Assets Broadly Decline: U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rebounded again, the dollar index strengthened, and U.S. equities pulled back, with Bitcoin, gold, and Hong Kong stocks all under pressure simultaneously. Geopolitical Disruption Lifts Oil Prices: Two very large crude carriers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher again. However, options flow shows large sell call openings on energy names expiring toward year-end, suggesting producers remain cautious on the upside for oil prices. DELL Earnings (Tuesday After Close): Expected to raise full-year guidance. II. Notable Block Trades (Directional Signals) VIX$VIX 20270317 47.5 CALL$ Buy Call, strike 47.5,
TOPzubee: Title feels a bit early. That VIX 47.5 call block reads more like fear getting priced before October, so September might dump first then snap back.
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09-01
Why Sell Puts Still Make Sense Now — And the Big Opportunity Brewing in Equities
The impasse of range-bound trading at elevated levels in the U.S. equity market remains unresolved. On the one hand, September seasonality, defensive positioning by institutional investors, and the potential seasonal tendency for the VIX to rise all suggest that a strong short-term rally is unlikely. On the other hand, robust corporate earnings and the fact that equity-index P/E multiples have not expanded materially are limiting the downside for U.S. equities. My conclusion for the U.S. market over the coming week is therefore as follows: taking all factors into account, U.S. equities are more likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels than to enter a one-way decline. At the same time, we should pay attention to a new opportunity at relatively depressed levels: commodity indices are
TOPVIX under 15 is a pretty tight line tbh. Time decay hits these two-week straddles faster than most people expect
4.30K
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09-01
He Says He Is Not Afraid of Custom Chips. Why Pay US$3.5 Billion?
Jensen Huang said on Monday that he is not afraid of custom chips. The same day, Nvidia put US$3.5 billion into MediaTek convertible bonds and brought MediaTek onto its own NVLink. He is not trying to keep custom chips outside the door; he wants them running across Nvidia's network. Reports say the tie-up is meant to get custom data-centre chips deployed faster. Nvidia closed 1.48 per cent higher at US$220.78. On the custom-silicon side, the tape read the opposite way. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ fell another 2.29 per cent to US$211.66, and its gain for the year slipped from 154.91 per cent on Friday to 149.07 per cent. The wound is the same one as last week. Revenue from the US$120 billion arrangement with
TOPI think the answer is clear: what really keeps you "making money" is not just designing the chips, but controlling how the chips are connected, scheduled, and run. Therefore, the most noteworthy aspect of Nvidia's $3.5 billion investment this time is not simply betting on MediaTek, but rather shifting the focus of competition from "who can make a better ASIC" to NVLink, networking, software stacks, and system-level ecosystems. Others can design their own chips, but as long as these chips are ultimately connected to Nvidia's connectivity system, Nvidia will still control the most crucial "toll road" in the AI cluster. This also explains why MRVL's stock price can still fall despite large orders. The market is now not just asking "whether there are orders," but "when will orders become revenue, what is the profit margin, and who in the ecosystem will take the greatest value." Design capabilities alone are no longer enough; what is truly scarce is the platform capabilities that can integrate computing, networking, memory, and software. Therefore, I am more optimistic about system-level platform companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, rather than just looking at a particular custom chip itself. In short: the most valuable aspect of AI in the next stage may not be "who makes the chips," but "who controls the data flow and ecosystem rules between chips." Chips are cars, while networks and platforms are toll roads.
3.08K
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09-01
$TXN Gains 0.88% as Chip Demand Holds the Line at $260
$Texas Instruments(TXN)$ $Texas Instruments(TXN) +0.88% Defends $260 Pivot, MACD Bottoming Signals Mean Reversion Toward $290 Latest Close Data 📊 TXN closed at $260.91 (+0.88%) on Sep 1, 2026, still -21.9% below 52-week high of $334.03. Intraday range: $259.96–$262.38. Volume: 5.76M (Volume Ratio 1.10). Core Market Drivers 📰 Semiconductor complex remains under pressure, but TXN showed relative strength. Q2 revenue of $5.46B grew 23% YoY; automotive and AI data-center analog demand continues to support fundamentals. Macro semiconductor sentiment stabilized after broad sell-off. Technical Analysis 📈 Volume Ratio 1.10 signals mild accumulation. MACD: DIF -6.84, DEA -5.62, Histogram -2.44 — still bearish but narrowing for four sessions, indicating down
1.85K
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09-01
$TM Finds Its Footing as Toyota Bets on Autonomous Cars by 2028
$Toyota(TM)$ $Toyota Motor(TM) +1.06%: Auto Giant Rebounds Off Support, $202 After-Hours Print Signals Momentum Build Latest Close Data TM settled at $196.54 (+1.06%) on Sep 1, 2026, holding above yesterday's $194.48 close. Price sits about 21% below its 52-week high of $248.90 and well above the $166.10 low. After-hours tape pushed to $202.41, hinting at continuation demand. Core Market Drivers Nikkei reported Toyota will launch autonomous vehicles by 2028, reinforcing its electrification/software roadmap. Meanwhile, broader risk sentiment wobbled as markets digested mixed macro signals and profit-taking in tech—yet TM's defensive dividend profile (3.02% yield) drew rotation flows. Technical Analysis Volume came in at 0.4463M with a 1.38 Volume Rat
1.56K
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09-01
$IBKR Pushes Toward $98.75 on Strong Client Growth
$Interactive Brokers(IBKR)$ $Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Rally +1.51% to $97.29, Momentum Building Under 52-Week High $98.75 Latest Close Data: $97.29 (+1.51%), just 1.5% below 52-week high of $98.75. Volume 3.56M shares, turnover rate 0.21%. Core Market Drivers: Q2 earnings beat with customer equity up 40% YoY. Piper Sandler raised target to $105 while CICC lifted to $110. Broker sector sentiment improving as rates stabilize. Technical Analysis: MACD shows strong bullish momentum with DIF 1.59 vs DEA 0.93, MACD bar +1.33. RSI(6) elevated at 65.98, leaving room before overbought. KDJ J-value 84.11 confirms uptrend, though short-term pullback risk exists. Volume ratio 0.89 suggests orderly accumulation. Key Price Levels: Primary Support: $94.43 (tod
1.03K
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09-01
$SWKS Buying Surges as Qorvo Deal Boosts Sentiment
$Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)$ $Skyworks Solutions, Inc.(SWKS) Closes +1.85% at $67.01: Consolidation Tightens Between $62.63 Support and $69.87 Resistance, Breakout Watch Active 📡 Latest Close Data: SWKS ended Tuesday, Sep 1 at $67.01, up +1.85% (+$1.22) on heavy volume. Intraday range held $64.86–$67.70, with amplitude of 4.32%. Price sits -26.3% below the 52-week high of $90.90 and roughly +29.0% above the 52-week low of $51.93. Core Market Drivers: The Qorvo acquisition momentum continues to anchor sentiment after HSR antitrust clearance. Meanwhile, Apple supply-chain chatter and semiconductor-sector rotation are keeping intraday swings elevated. Today’s buying pushed SWKS to challenge the upper consolidation band, though it remains just shy of th
1.94K
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08-31
🌟🌟🌟 $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ entered this latest earnings results up nearly 160% year todate. It is priced to perfection. Short sellers are treating this like a cyclical software fad. However AI capital expenditure from hyperscalers have not slowed down. Alphabet, Amazon & Microsoft are keen to escape Nvidia's premium GPU prices. They need custom ASICs to optimise their data centers at a lower cost. Marvell is the undisputed king of this custom silicon transition. Marvell's management also said that their custom chip business is expected to double next year. You do not double your core growth engine in a cooling market. So a great strategy is to dollar cost average $Marve
TOPDoubling is the bull case, not the base case. CFO already tied the back half to customer capex pacing, and that kind of wording is never clean
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08-31
Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$
TOPSMH vol probably does expand this week, with OPEX plus earnings from key names stacked together. Bigger move than last week feels pretty likely
2.24K
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09-01
Hawkish Pivot at Jackson Hole: Navigating the 60% September Rate Hike Odds Across Q3 2026
Kevin Warsh’s inaugural appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium delivered a surprisingly hawkish stance, elevating September 2026 rate hike odds to 60% and reshaping market expectations for Q3 2026. Prior consensus favored an extended monetary pause; however, Warsh highlighted sticky core inflation and labor market tightness, warning against premature policy easing. This policy pivot induces equity valuation contraction, particularly in hyper-growth and long-duration tech sectors. Simultaneously, a sharp sector rotation is underway, favoring cash-generative value sectors (Energy, Financials, Short-Duration Value) over rate-sensitive growth assets. Fixed income and currency markets face heightened volatility: short-term Treasury yields have surged, driving a bear-flattening yield curve, wh
TOPI would not lean too hard on a 2026 hawkish path yet. History says long range central bank signaling gets wrecked by a few inflation prints, while gold can stay bid on reserve flow alone.
2.01K
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09-01
Navigating Singapore’s Data Center REITs: AI Growth vs. Macro Headwinds
The generative AI boom, persistent cloud adoption, and tight supply constraints in core Asia-Pacific hubs continue to fuel the data center sector. Singapore's S-REIT market provides unique exposure to this digital real estate expansion—ranging from pure-play operators to diversified industrial giants. However, navigating the space requires looking past headline yields. High-density GPU workloads, grid power constraints, variable cost of debt, and geographical concentration create distinct risk profiles across individual counters. 1. Keppel DC REIT (SGX: AJBU) — The Blue-Chip Pure Play $Keppel DC Reit(AJBU.SI)$ Keppel DC REIT remains the marquee pure-play option for regional investors seeking targeted exposure. Tailwinds: Superior Balance Sheet
TOPThat 2.7% average debt cost and 87% fixed-rate hedge really are the defensive edge here. For data center REITs, balance sheet discipline matters more than headline yield now
555
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09-01
My pick is CRWD. The refining rally is backed by genuine fundamentals: Middle East disruptions, tight product supply and elevated crack spreads are driving exceptional earnings for MPC, VLO, PSX and DINO. However, refining remains cyclical, and margins can normalize quickly if geopolitical risks ease or global supply improves. CRWD has a more durable secular tailwind. AI agents are expanding the cybersecurity attack surface, creating entirely new workloads that require identity, endpoint, cloud and data protection. Strong ARR growth also suggests enterprises are still consolidating security spending onto broader platforms. The valuation is demanding, so I wouldn’t chase blindly. But compared with potentially peak-cycle refining margins, I prefer CRWD’s structural growth runway. For the ne
TOPGasoline builds have been beating for 3 weeks and crack spreads are already off the peak by roughly 15%. CRWD can make new highs, but refining probably tops out first.
1.21K
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09-01
Why Affirm’s Record Quarter Still Failed the Price-Action Test
$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ reported its strongest operating quarter yet, but the stock could not hold the post-earnings enthusiasm. That divergence does not prove the business is weakening. It does show that investors are no longer rewarding buy-now-pay-later volume growth without testing funding costs, credit discipline and the quality of reported profit. Affirm released results on August 27 for its fiscal fourth quarter ended June 30. Gross merchandise volume increased 36% to $14.1 billion, revenue rose 33% to $1.166 billion and active consumers increased 21% to 27.8 million. Transactions per active consumer reached 7.0, up 20%, while Affirm Card GMV more than doubled to $2.84 billion. These figures show that the network is expanding through
TOPGMV and user growth were solid, but funding costs are doing more of the market’s work now. If rates stay here, next quarter margin pressure may matter more than headline volume.
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09-01
Why Hims & Hers’ Australian Launch Cannot Hide a 12-Point Margin Decline
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ entered Australia on August 31 by converting Eucalyptus’s Pilot men’s-health platform to the Hims brand. The launch expands the addressable market and reduces dependence on US regulation, but international growth is arriving while consolidated margins and cash flow are moving in the wrong direction. The Australian offering initially covers sexual health, weight loss and hair loss, with access to branded GLP-1 medicines where clinically appropriate. Management says the expansion supports a path to $1 billion of international annual revenue within three years. The event happened and was announced on August 31; it followed the closing of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June. Hims & Hers’ official Australian annou
TOPThat 12-point margin hit matters, but the real question is whether it is mostly acquisition integration noise or a structural drag from GLP-1 mix and subsidies
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09-01
Why Lululemon’s September 3 Report Is a Product Test
$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$’s shares already trade at a dramatically lower multiple than during the brand’s growth era. That alone does not create a turnaround. The September 3 earnings report must show that North American customers are responding to fresher products and that management can stabilise gross margin before incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill starts on September 8. The company’s latest reported quarter ended May 3 and was released June 4. Revenue increased 4% to $2.47 billion, but constant-currency growth was only 2%. Americas revenue fell 3% and comparable sales declined 5%; international revenue increased 22%, including 30% growth in mainland China. The regional divergence shows that Lululemon still possesses global brand equity, but its lar
TOPI’m less pessimistic here — 22% international growth and 30% in mainland China still say the brand has real legs. Americas is the mess, but that balance sheet buys time
949
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09-01
Carvana’s $7,000 Question
The used-car dealer that wants a technology valuation I have watched plenty of supposedly disruptive companies discover that selling something online does not magically turn an asset-heavy business into software. Carvana is now testing that rule to destruction. The market has taken notice. At the end of August, $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ carried an $81.85 billion market capitalisation, with the shares at $73.46. Yet Wall Street remains remarkably divided over what investors are actually buying, with sell-side targets reportedly spanning a wide range. Some see a technology-enabled used-car platform whose unit economics have undergone a structural transformation. Others see a highly cyclical auto retailer whose impressive profitability remains unusually de
TOPThat 7000 GPU is the whole bet here. If financing spreads or used car pricing soften, the tech multiple falls apart fast
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09-01
Why Dell’s AI-Server Scale Still Needs Margin Proof
$Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ reports fiscal-second-quarter results after the September 1 close with an unusually demanding setup. Revenue is expected to be nearly 50% higher than a year earlier because AI-server shipments have expanded rapidly, but scale alone does not determine whether Dell deserves to trade like an AI platform rather than a hardware assembler. The central question is whether Infrastructure Solutions Group margin can improve as the product mix shifts toward expensive $NVIDIA(NVDA)$-based systems. Dell’s latest completed quarter ended May 1 and was reported May 28. Revenue increased 88% year over year to a record $43.84 billion, operating income rose 214% to $3.66 billion and adjusted f
TOPScale can create pricing power before margins fully show it. Dell moving this much NVDA-heavy volume is already a signal the market may be underweighting.
802
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09-01
My view: the memory supercycle still has room to run, but the easy money is probably behind us. The key is separating DRAM from NAND. DRAM remains structurally tight because AI accelerators and HBM are consuming enormous wafer capacity, while new fabs take years to build and ramp. NAND, however, faces a clearer risk of supply catching up with demand in 2027. That makes me more comfortable with MU and SK hynix than pure NAND exposure. SK hynix’s ₩40T buyback is a strong signal that management remains confident in future cash generation, but buybacks are not a guaranteed price floor. At ~85% gross margins, expectations are already extremely high. I would watch DRAM contract prices, HBM demand, hyperscaler capex and gross margins rather than stock charts. If DRAM prices roll over while AI ca
TOPDRAM contract price growth already cooled for two straight months, so calling it structurally tight feels rich lol. HBM can't cover every weak end market forever