$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  

We are in the Lowest Low, if not extremely close to it. The FUD is ending. SMCI is now medium-to-low cost, high reward. Expect huge rebound (SMCI serious about meeting Q1) and huge volatility (SMCI in Quiet Period until Q1).

---Huge rebound--

SMCI is on Quiet Period since 13 December until the release of Q1 FY25. They appeared serious about getting things done; the things they said they'd do and achieve during the 5 November update, they're already in the process. One of which is the Malaysia global supply chains expansion: SMCI just opened 530 jobs in LinkedIn, mostly in Malaysia, followed by a mix of San Jose, Taiwan & Netherlands. Coupled with their partnership with top customers like NVDA and XAi, and the anticipated sales volume from these and Malaysia, there's a high chance of meeting their Q1 expectations.

The price drop yesterday fron $34 to $32 reflected the broader market pricing in the long-term 2025-2026 impact of FED Powell's speech on limited future rates cut. After this drop, I won't expect much FED impact on SMCI's prices in the year ahead, unless FED drops another bomb, which is unlikely. What is mosy likely, is that Trump Inauguration Week will overturn much of the negative sentiment currently in the No-Santa Rally December.

--Huge volatility--

I guess SMCI won't make anymore announcement until Q1, including the anticipated corporate governance adjustments re: Special Committee report and BDO takeover. They're so confident that they didn't even feel the need to reassure investors once more before entering the Quiet Period (their last major update was 5 November), nor did they care whether they would be out of NASDAQ-100 (poor remarks by Charles on Reuters NEXT 10 December). 

Charles seems only interested in meeting Q1, nothing else matters. This is great spirit but makes things volatile for investors given the lack of news reassurance. Now, our only hope is Q1. 

--Medium-to-low cost, high reward--

SMCI's seriousness in meeting Q1 means they're most likely to file their financial report and release Q1 on time, which is a prerequisire. Expect good news re: corporate governance, but uncertain (though likely good) Q1 results & forward guidance.

Most likely: Good Q1 + corporate governance update = rise to $60, but unsustained and drop to Lower High $45-50

2nd most likely: Good Q1 + corporate governance update + strong forward guidance = sustained rise to $60, with possible to hit $70 and beyond

Least likely: Poor Q1 + corporate governance update = drop to $22-28 (psychological resistance)

Prospect of dropping below $20: I am not betting on a company crash/BDO quitting/NASDAQ delisting/Trump messup/market pullback. 

--Enter now, hold, or DCA--

If you buy now at $32: The worst scenario would cost maximum $10 per share if you buy now, while the least positive scenario is minimum $13 profit from current price. 

You may hold until the extreme POI at $28.86. I am not sure whether it will ever drop to that price, given SMCI's strong buyer interest to hold it above $30-32 amid NASDAQ-100 removal and FED forecast. On the one hand, you may miss out on the current low if you hold. On the other hand, there is the cost of max. $10 in the unlikely event of poor Q1 if you buy now at $32. 

The best bet to balance risk and cost is to DCA down between $32-$28.86.