Bitcoin's new low doesn't automatically mean liquidity is tightening. Crypto is often the first asset sold during risk-off periods, and recent weakness may reflect deleveraging and sentiment more than a macro liquidity shock.
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls come in near 60k, rate-cut expectations could strengthen as growth concerns rise. However, higher oil prices complicate the picture by keeping inflation risks alive. The Fed may find it harder to cut aggressively if energy-driven inflation reaccelerates.
As for Iran and oil, I think the market is pricing in a limited conflict, not a major supply disruption. That's why equities remain relatively resilient. The real black swan would be a prolonged escalation that pushes oil above US$100 and keeps it there.
My base case: this is a growth scare, not a liquidity crisis. The bigger risk is a "higher inflation, slower growth" environment, which tends to be challenging for both Bitcoin and high-multiple growth stocks.
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