Today, gold dropped all the way from $4,500 per ounce to $4,102, with a maximum decline of as much as 8.8%. Market sentiment has fallen into extreme pessimism. Considering the previous three trading days, when gold declined by 3.75%, 3.53%, and 3.26% respectively, today’s sharp drop is even more alarming. After consecutive declines, gold has completely erased its 30% gain for the year. At this moment of panic, I chose to buy the dip. I bought some $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ at $78. Next, let’s talk about the logic behind my decision. First, it is necessary to understand the reasons behind this sharp decline in gold. According to traditional thinking, gold is a safe-haven asset, and regional conflicts should benefit gold prices. On the first trading

Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

The gold market is currently navigating a period of high intensity, where technical "overbought" signals are clashing with powerful geopolitical and structural drivers. The State of the Bull Run Despite the recent steep pullbacks, the consensus among major institutions (J.P. Morgan, UBS, Goldman Sachs) is that the secular bull market remains intact. The current sell-off is largely viewed as a "healthy consolidation" following the parabolic move earlier this year. Record Highs: Most analysts expect gold to notch fresh record highs later in 2026. Targets range from $5,000/oz (J.P. Morgan/HSBC) to as high as $6,300/oz (UBS/Bank of America) by year-end. The Iran Factor: The conflict in Iran is the primary driver of current volatility. While "safe-haven" demand initially spiked prices to nearly

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

What caused the gold crash? The chain reaction currently driving gold is: War → Oil up → Inflation risk → Rate cuts delayed → Bond yields & USD up → Gold down Recent reports confirm gold fell sharply because rising oil prices increased inflation fears and reduced expectations for interest-rate cuts, while a stronger USD and higher bond yields made gold less attractive.  There is also another important factor: Liquidity selling. During market stress, investors sometimes sell gold to cover losses elsewhere, so gold can fall even during geopolitical crises.  So this crash is macro-driven, not gold fundamentals collapsing. --- Is this a regime change or just a correction? Important perspective: Gold peaked ~ $5,600 Recently dropped to around $4,100–4,300 That is about a 25% corre

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

Global financial markets have recently grown increasingly complex, and it is evident that market capital is currently undergoing a drastic risk repricing. Against this backdrop, both commodities and equity markets are exhibiting signs of exhaustion, struggling to sustain their recent trajectories. Crude oil may be facing fading upward momentum, while US equities—battered by capital outflows and suppressed by rising yields—appear vulnerable to further weakness at any moment.​ Short Bets Intensify on US Equities Institutional trading desk data reveals that the selling pressure on US equities is not to be underestimated. Goldman Sachs' Prime Book data flashes a distinctively negative signal: US equities have faced sell-offs for the fourth consecutive week. More alarmingly, hedge funds are not

Gold prices saw a sharp decline yesterday, dropping about 3.7%, followed by another 2% decline today. Within just two days, prices broke below the $5,000 and $4,900 levels, falling toward $4,800 and even briefly dipping under $4,700. From a one-day performance perspective, gold-related ETFs declined broadly. Physical gold ETFs saw $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ fall 3.16%, $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ drop 3.14%, and $Spdr Gold Minishares Trust(GLDM)$ decline 3.18%. Gold mining ETFs experienced steeper losses, with $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ down 6.23%, $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$

The Red Screen of 2026: Why Gold & Silver are Diving Together  🌟🌟🌟As of Friday, 20 March 2026, the commodities market is in a high velocity liquidation flush.  If you are staring at your screen wondering why Gold and Silver are diving despite the Iran war, look no further than the high stakes standoff at the US Federal Reserve. The "Why": The Captain Who Refuses To Leave the Bridge  The Powell Standoff:  The Cause  The market is recoiling because Jerome Powell has effectively declared on Wednesday 18 March 2026 that he is not going anywhere.  He vowed to serve as "Chair Pro Tem" if his term expires on May 15 before a successor is confirmed. The Power Play  Even more disruptive, Powell stated that he would remain on the Board of Governors until 2028 wh

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

Today, spot gold briefly fell below the key $5,000 level, touching around $4,967 at the session low, with an intraday decline close to 1%. Prices later rebounded slightly but continued to hover near the $5,000 mark. From a one-day performance perspective, gold-related ETFs also declined broadly. The largest gold ETF $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ fell 1.29%, $黄金信托ETF-iShares(IAU)$ dropped 1.33%, and the lower-fee $SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust(GLDM)$ declined 1.31%. Gold mining ETFs experienced steeper losses, with $黄金矿业ETF-VanEck(GDX)$ down 6.08% and $小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDXJ)$ down 5.82%.

1. Your macro explanation is actually correct What you said about oil → inflation → fewer rate cuts → gold down is exactly what is happening. Recent news confirms this chain: Middle East conflict → oil above $100 Inflation expectations rise Fed rate cuts pushed back or cancelled Bond yields + USD rise Gold falls despite war Gold has dropped ~20% from the January peak mainly because markets no longer expect rate cuts.  Important concept: > Gold rises when real rates fall, not when war happens. War only helps gold if it causes rate cuts or money printing. Right now war is causing inflation instead, which is bearish for gold short term. --- 2. Why gold crashed even during war This confused many investors because gold is supposed to be a safe haven. But this time: Oil spike → inflation