With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

Wait till GLD bounces back about $409 (200-Day SMA: ~$407.45 to $409.66) before getting bullish again.

On June 16, the Bank of Japan threw two punches in a single sitting. Punch one — the rate hike. The short-term policy rate went from 0.75% to 1.0%, passed 7 to 1, the highest level since 1995 — a full 31-year high. Punch two — a floor under the taper. At the same meeting, the BOJ drew a finish line under its bond-purchase reduction: from now through Q1 2027 it keeps trimming the monthly purchase quota by roughly ¥200 billion per calendar quarter, but from April 2027 onward, monthly purchases hold steady at about ¥2 trillion and stop shrinking. Open any headline and it's wall-to-wall "31-year high" — all eyes on punch one. So here's my cold splash of water: these two punches are not a double-tightening combo. The first is the jab everyone sees; the second is the hidden hand. And it's the hi

Gold’s breach of the $4,000 mark and its journey up to an all-time high of nearly $5,600 earlier this year has been historic. However, the recent mid-year pullback into the $4,200 – $4,300 range has a lot of investors asking if the party is over, or if this is just a breath before the next leg up. Evaluating whether to add ETFs like $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ and $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ right now requires understanding why the market is breathing, the structural drivers behind the longer-term trend, and how to blend paper gold with the physical metal you already own. Physical Gold vs. Gold ETFs (GLD & IAU) Since you already own physical gold, adding a Gold ETF provides a completely different strategic benef

Look for long term, invest with extra money 

After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i

Why is gold sliding during a geopolitical crisis? I take the view that $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$  is currently facing a fascinating fundamental and technical dilemma. With futures recently testing an intraday low of approximately $4,047, the market is staring right down the barrel of a massive psychological and technical level: $4,000. Why is this happening? A few market mechanics could explain the weakness: Liquidation Phase: In sharp, sudden risk-off environments, institutional investors often liquidate liquid assets to cover margin calls and losses in other parts of their portfolios. Strengthen USD (maybe?): POTUS ha repeatedly made his comments about the weakening greenback. If geopolitical tensions are driving investors st

I would not describe it as "too late", but I would say the risk-reward is less attractive than it was before the rally. Gold tends to move in long cycles. Investors who buy only after a strong rise often experience a period of sideways or negative returns even if the longer term trend remains intact. For a dividend investor, there is also an important difference: STI Gold Generates dividends No income Benefits from earnings growth No earnings Suitable for income goals Mainly for wealth preservation More volatile in economic downturns Often acts as a hedge If your objective is monthly income, STI or other dividend paying investments are generally more aligned with that goal than gold. If your objective is capital preservation and diversification, holding some gold can make sense. A practica

If gold is approaching a major support level like $4,000, I would generally prefer scaling in gradually rather than waiting for a confirmed breakdown. The reason is that a confirmed breakdown often means selling pressure has already accelerated, making it difficult to distinguish between a temporary flush and the start of a deeper decline. By scaling in, you preserve flexibility while avoiding the need to perfectly time the bottom. That said, the fact that gold has struggled despite geopolitical tensions is worth noting. It suggests that higher real yields, a stronger USD, or liquidity needs may currently be outweighing safe-haven demand. If those forces persist, $4,000 could fail. A balanced approach might be: Small initial allocation near $4,000 Add more if support holds and momentum sta

For long term investment, this might be a good price to drop some bullets

Not sure about the gold .. as I have lost lot on this 

Buy gold and memory etf

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

Here is the most uncomfortable chart in markets right now. The US and Iran are exchanging strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Oil is above $90. By every textbook, gold should be screaming higher. Instead, gold futures touched an intraday low of $4,047, pressing against the psychologically critical $4,000 level, down roughly 27% from its January all-time high of $5,589. Gold's worst monthly drop since 2008 happened in March, during the most serious Middle East escalation in decades. The safe haven failed exactly when it was supposed to work. So before anyone buys this dip, you need to understand why it failed. Because the answer determines whether $4,000 is a generational entry or a trapdoor. Why the Safe Haven Failed The mechanism is counterintuitive but logical once you see it. Wh

When you have a basic forecast for financial market trends, waiting for that prediction to materialize is often the most agonizing part. My recent source of anxiety stems from a potential intermediate-term top in the US stock market. Because the historically predictable impulse rally of the US Dollar Index might materialize within the next month, US equities and other risk assets could face downward pressure from a strong dollar, triggering a correction. Although this drawdown might not be massive, if we mindlessly maintain a "permabull" stance, we could suffer short-term losses. Watch for Technical Bearish Divergence According to our historical backtesting, the probability of US stocks delivering positive returns over the next three months is currently at its lowest, and a substantial dra