Tesla Drops: Does FSD Progress in US Change Investment Case?

Tesla started the year down 7%, with Q4 deliveries plunging 16% YoY—marking a second straight year of annual decline. Yet two recent events are reshaping the debate. During a major San Francisco blackout, Waymo vehicles relying on lidar and cloud systems stalled, while Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet remained operational. Separately, a Tesla owner completed a 2,732-mile, 68-hour cross-country drive using FSD with zero interventions. After weak delivery data, do FSD signals change Tesla’s investment thesis? If autonomy scales faster than expected, is the market underpricing Tesla’s long-term upside?

avatarMrzorro
01-12 16:28
Tesla Quick Take: 2026 Could See Unsupervised Robotaxi and FSD Launch Robotaxi and FSD largely support $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  's current high valuation. Here's an update on Tesla's latest operational status. Robotaxi Current Operations: 1. Tesla Robotaxi has a pricing advantage over Waymo: Tesla Robotaxi initially charged a fixed fare of $4.20 per trip, later adjusted to $6.90 for an expanded service area. The latest pricing model has gradually shifted to dynamic pricing, about $1.5 per mile. In comparison, Waymo's pricing in San Francisco and Phoenix is about $2.5 per mile, reaching over $3 per mile during peak hours. 2. Tesla Robotaxi operations are currently limited to Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay
avatarBrando741319
01-12 00:20
Good
avatarLEESIMON
01-11 00:12
🩷Good
Markets are quietly telling two stories at once: the labor data is cooling just enough to keep the Fed cautious, while capital is still sprinting toward AI infrastructure where demand is structural, not cyclical. Near term, geopolitics and rates drive volatility; long term, compute, storage, and energy efficiency decide the winners. January strength looks less like speculation and more like positioning for where growth is actually being built.

Big Tech Weekly | January Effect Begins: CES Sets the Tone for AI Infrastructure, Tesla and Storage

Macro Theme of the WeekLabor Market Data Warm-Up & Fed Policy ExpectationsThis week’s macro focus centers on early signals from labor market data and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy, alongside heightened geopolitical uncertainty driving volatility in technology stocks. ADP showed December job gains of 41,000, below expectations of 47,000, while JOLTS openings fell to 7.146 million, suggesting emerging tightness in labor market conditions. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the key data point for confirmation.Geopolitical Events Drive Market SentimentGeopolitical developments dominated sentiment this week. Reports of Venezuelan leader Maduro being arrested triggered volatility in oil prices, while restrictions on silver exports pushed silver prices up 18%, pressur
Big Tech Weekly | January Effect Begins: CES Sets the Tone for AI Infrastructure, Tesla and Storage
avatarBarcode
01-09

🚗⚡📈 TSLA Compression Builds As Autonomy Leadership And Regulatory Optionality Collide With Macro Risk 📈⚡🚗

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Alphabet(GOOGL)$   08Jan26 🇺🇸|09Jan26 🇳🇿 New high of the day printed early, steady buying from the open with price holding above intraday VWAP as consolidation tightens. +$12 off the low today. No new “good news.” No sentiment shift. Buyers showed up anyway. Price first. Narratives later! I’m tracking $TSLA through a very deliberate consolidation phase where price, flow, and narrative are lining up again after two weeks of sequential decline. This is not disorderly selling. This is digestion. 📊 My Daily Structure
🚗⚡📈 TSLA Compression Builds As Autonomy Leadership And Regulatory Optionality Collide With Macro Risk 📈⚡🚗

Nvidia's Counter Is Closing Gap On Tesla's Edge (Unmatched Data Engine)

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's Drive Thor platform is emerging as a formidable competitor to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$'s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, though the two differ fundamentally in their target market and technological approach. Tesla offers a direct-to-consumer FSD product, while Nvidia provides an autonomous driving platform for other automakers to integrate into their own vehicles. In this article, we would like to look at a comprehensive, business-oriented assessment of whether Nvidia’s Drive Thor platform could meaningfully challenge or even derail Tesla’s Robotaxi vision — with a focus on how the two approaches differ fundamentally in market strategy, technological architecture, and competitive advantages.
Nvidia's Counter Is Closing Gap On Tesla's Edge (Unmatched Data Engine)
avatarBarcode
01-08

🚀⚡🧠 Tesla under fire as momentum breaks, while capital quietly loads convexity 🧠⚡🚀

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Micron Technology(MU)$  Why sentiment, structure, and long-dated options are telling two very different stories I’m looking at $TSLA the same way I always have, by separating opinion from positioning and narrative from capital. The downgrade noise is loud, but the tape is louder. 📉 Analyst pessimism versus what price is actually doing GLJ Research raising its Tesla price target to $25.28 from $19.05 while reiterating a Sell borders on satire. A $6 increase that still implies a near-total collapse from ~$437 tells me this is less about updated math and more about anchoring. The justification, Q4 delivery mix
🚀⚡🧠 Tesla under fire as momentum breaks, while capital quietly loads convexity 🧠⚡🚀
1. How to view Tesla’s FSD today Tesla’s Full Self-Driving is best understood as a highly advanced driver-assistance system, not yet a true autonomous solution. Strengths Industry-leading real-world data advantage, measured in billions of driven miles Strong end-to-end neural network architecture Rapid iteration speed via over-the-air updates Clear long-term ambition to remove human supervision Structural limitations Camera-only approach increases edge-case risk No redundancy via lidar or radar, which regulators favour Still requires driver supervision in all jurisdictions Safety validation remains statistical rather than deterministic In short, FSD is technically impressive but commercially premature. Its value today lies more in optionality than realised autonomy revenue. 2. Is NVIDIA Th
avatarWeChats
01-07
🚨 The "Android Moment" for Robotaxis? Why Nvidia Thor is Tesla’s Biggest Nightmare Is the "Winner-Takes-All" thesis for Tesla ($TSLA) officially dead? That is the multi-billion dollar question shaking out weak hands today. While Elon Musk brushed off the threat on X, the market voted with its feet, dragging Tesla down 4% while Mercedes-Benz and BYD caught a bid. Here is the brutal reality check: For five years, the bull case for Tesla has been that they are the only ones with the data, the silicon (Dojo), and the fleet. But at CES, Jensen Huang didn’t just unveil a chip. He handed a nuclear weapon—the Nvidia Thor platform—to Tesla’s enemies. We are no longer looking at Tesla vs. "Legacy Auto." We are looking at Tesla vs. The Nvidia Ecosystem. And historically, betting against an ecosystem
avatarShyon
01-07
I remain bullish on Tesla's $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  Full Self-Driving (FSD) and see the recent noise around NVIDIA's $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   Thor platform more as hype than a real threat. While Thor looks impressive on paper and CES showcased strong partnerships with Lucid $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$  , Mercedes-Benz, and BYD $Byd Company Limited(002594)$  , the reality is that self-driving is not just about raw compute power or flashy demos. The hardest part is handling those rare, extreme edge cases — the last 1% of autonomy — and tha
(1) Tesla's FSD still remains the market leader in consumer-available technology & recently won the Best Tech 2026 for driver assistance systems due to its vast utility on both city and highway roads. So yes, this trend seems real and also depends on how unsupervised FSD in select earmarked areas in 2026 performs.  (2) again yes, NVIDIA's DRIVE Thor platform could be a direct challenge to Tesla's robotaxi ambitions, though the two companies operate on very different business models. The technological threat is quite material. Musk has obviously downplayed this as a near-term threat, suggesting legacy automakers will take several years to integrate such chips at scale, placing the real competitive pressure 5–6 years out. So let us be patient. (3) Depends! Are you a bull?: if y
It's really interesting option scew on Tesla right now, everyone is trading far OTM options with puts leading volume by far
avatarxc__
01-06

🚀 Tesla's China Conquest: Stock Rockets 3% as Record Sales and FSD Revolution Spark Epic Growth! ⚡

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Buckle up, folks! Tesla's shares just blasted off with a sizzling 3% leap, fueled by blockbuster December 2025 numbers from the China Passenger Car Association. We're talking a jaw-dropping 97,171 vehicles wholesaled – that's the second-highest monthly haul ever for Tesla China! 😎 This beast of a performance cranked up 11% from November and flexed a 13% year-over-year sales spike to around 94,000 units. Even with a full-year dip of about 5-7% to 625,000-851,732 vehicles amid fierce EV rivalries, this late-year surge screams resilience and dominance in the world's biggest electric playground. 🌏💥 But wait, there's more rocket fuel in the tank! Full Self-Driving (FSD) is gearing up to transform Tesla's fate in China. Partial appr
🚀 Tesla's China Conquest: Stock Rockets 3% as Record Sales and FSD Revolution Spark Epic Growth! ⚡
We saw some interesting developments in 2025 with respect to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ - some negative and few positive too: (1) Loss of Global Lead: In 2025, Tesla officially lost its title, in a rather convincing way, as the world's top seller of battery-electric vehicles - and that surprisingly to China's BYD, which delivered 2.26 million BEVs compared to Tesla's 1.64 million. Will the tide turn in 2026? In theory it can but Tesla has some smart thinking ti do. (2) Growth Outlook: Analysts are split on 2026. While some expect a recovery driven by FSD and a potential "Robotaxi" scale-up, others remain bearish due to aging vehicle models and the expiration of U.S. federal EV tax credits. So, unless trump feels uncharacteristically
avatarIsleigh
01-06

Tesla Jumps 3%! China Growth Is Not the Story. FSD Is!

The market is celebrating Tesla's 3% pop on strong China numbers. That reaction is understandable, but incomplete. Yes, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data matters. But the real signal is not volume. It is strategic leverage. China is quietly becoming Tesla's most important AI and autonomy proving ground. And that changes the long-term valuation math. The Headline Everyone Sees: China Deliveries Are Back December 2025 numbers surprised to the upside: 97,171 wholesale units, a new monthly record +11% month-on-month Estimated 94,000 retail sales, up 13% year-on-year This confirms two things: Tesla demand in China is stabilising despite intense local competition Price cuts have already done their job — elasticity is improving But here is the key insight: volume alone does not just
Tesla Jumps 3%! China Growth Is Not the Story. FSD Is!
avatarL.Lim
01-06
While the number of units sold looks strong, Tesla can no longer compete while having higher retail prices, not in the China market where competitors constantly try to bring great bang for buck, all while selling a ridiculously cheap car, almost in a race to the bottom. So the numbers have improved and growth is always heartening for a brand, but the long term outlook is whether Tesla still has room to conpete in the EV field based on price (not just in China, but the world too), because they cannot only focus on 1 market (look how China is trying to infiltrate the India EV market). Tesla has obviously pivoted hard to their other newer lines, like FSD/robotaxi, although whether that has any true success because Musk insists on using pure camera vision, is another mess in its
1. Strong December Sales, But Mixed Full-Year Performance Tesla China’s December 2025 wholesale figures of 97,171 vehicles represent one of its highest monthly totals on record, and year-on-year retail sales were also reported as positive, growing around 13 per cent in December. This suggests a meaningful year-end rebound in demand and supports the view that Tesla’s Chinese operations retain resilience in a highly competitive market.  However, over the full year, China shipments declined by about 7 per cent compared with 2024, and gains were concentrated in only a few months. This has led to Tesla being overtaken by domestic rival BYD as the world’s largest EV seller in 2025, reflecting intensifying competition particularly at the more affordable end of the market.  The stock’s r
avatarShyon
01-06
From my point of view, Tesla's 3% jump following the CPCA data reinforces how critical China remains to Tesla's growth narrative. Deliveries approaching 100,000 units in a single month, alongside double-digit year-on-year growth, signal that Tesla is still highly competitive despite an increasingly crowded EV market. In an environment where many EV makers are struggling with demand and pricing pressure, this level of volume resilience stands out. What I find particularly encouraging is that this growth comes amid intense local competition and ongoing price wars. Tesla's ability to grow deliveries while maintaining brand strength suggests its cost structure, manufacturing efficiency, and pricing strategy are still effective in China. The Shanghai Gigafactory continues to be a strategic asse
Based on the available data, Tesla's (TSLA.US) recent stock performance and strategic focus in China, particularly on AI and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, are indeed central topics for market participants.  Stock Performance and Catalysts Tesla's stock price rose 3.10% on January 5, 2026, closing at $451.67. This followed a period of volatility, with the stock reaching an intraday high of $498.83 in December 2025 before a year-end pullback. The immediate catalyst for the early January gain appears to be positive sentiment, though the provided datasets do not contain the specific December 2025 China sales figures mentioned in the user's query. Available news indicates the market was anticipating Q4 2025 delivery data, with a focus on Robotaxi progress rather than just d