Following last week's historic sell-off, the U.S. stock market—particularly the semiconductor sector—is standing at an extremely critical crossroads. It is no exaggeration to say that if the market takes even one more step downward, it will likely trigger a substantial, weekly-level decline. However, if the market can hold its ground against the current downtrend and stabilize, a phased recovery is not far out of reach, especially if tensions in the US-Iran conflict continue to cool. Therefore, this week's price action is of paramount importance to U.S. equities. At this critical juncture, since we cannot precisely forecast geopolitical developments, relying on technical analysis and real capital flow data to gauge market sentiment becomes essential. Today, Owen's analysis will delve deep

I think this week is likely to end with another "high opportunity, high volatility" week rather than a week where the market trends cleanly in one direction. The AI narrative hasn't broken—it is simply becoming more demanding. The market is moving from "buy anything related to AI" to "prove your earnings can justify the valuation." That is a much healthier environment, although it produces much sharper swings. Here are the major catalysts I will be watching. TSMC earnings will probably set the tone for the semiconductor sector This is arguably the biggest event of the week. Investors are looking for answers to questions such as: Are hyperscalers still spending aggressively? Is AI server demand slowing? Is HBM demand still constrained? Will TSMC raise guidance again? If

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</

With rising expectations that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement will be signed, the market appears to have temporarily escaped the shadow of inflation, and U.S. equities have finally welcomed a long-overdue rebound. Many investors may feel this is the time to buy the dip. However, I want to caution: do not yet let your guard down. The market's volatile phase has not passed. The current gains in U.S. stocks remain unstable, and the first leg of the crude oil bearish rally may already be complete. We need to patiently wait for the November 19 ceasefire agreement signing results and specific details to materialize before the market can potentially launch a new bearish phase. More importantly, for both the fragile rebound in U.S. equities and U.S. Treasuries, adopting a selling-options strateg

Recently, Intel's current CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, gave an exclusive interview to the tech podcast No Priors. $INTC designs and manufactures processors, chips, memory, and related hardware. In addition, the company provides software, optimization solutions, and artificial intelligence platforms. Tan revealed numerous investment directions, including CPUs, advanced packaging, glass substrates, gallium nitride, silicon carbide, indium phosphide, and diamond… Regarding future goals, Tan set a target of generating a 10-fold return for shareholders within 5 to 10 years. He predicts that Intel's business potential will be fully realized between 2030 and 2032, at which point the market will truly recognize its value. As of the closing bell on June 18th, Intel's stock rose 10.64%, hitting a new all-time h

The Federal Reserve's June 17 meeting delivered a distinct hawkish shock under new Chair Kevin Warsh. While the benchmark rate was held steady at 3.50%–3.75%, the updated dot plot revealed that 9 out of 19 officials now forecast at least one rate hike in 2026 — with 6 of them expecting multiple hikes. This sudden shift from easing expectations to potential tightening caused a brief sector rotation away from high-beta tech into value. However, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$’s after-hours resilience—climbing back toward $206 after closing regular hours down at $204.65 — highlights that macro noise is hitting a massive structural wall of enterprise AI demand. Will the Volatility Continue? Yes, in the short term. High-growth tech stocks are highly sensitive to the co

Hey everyone, Last Friday's NFP shock gave us a real-time test of the framework we discussed just two hours before the print. While the market was leaning hard into the rate-cut story, I flagged two things: low expectations did not automatically mean a weak labor market, and the market was not pricing in enough risk around a higher-for-longer or more hawkish repricing. Since the livestream was conducted in Chinese, the slides shown below are excerpts from the original Chinese PPT used during the session. The print came in hot, risk assets came under pressure, and the cross-asset moves largely followed the path we discussed in the livestream. [Call #1: The leading indicators were already warning us] The market was leaning too far into the dovish story that night, but the underlying data tol

Over the past two weeks, Nokia has released a series of AI-related announcements. $诺基亚(NOK)$ Individually, none of them looked particularly game-changing. Taken together, however, they reveal a much bigger strategy. Nokia is quietly positioning itself as an AI infrastructure company. The latest announcement is its joint Silicon Valley Innovation Center with Freedom Holding. At first glance, it sounds like another corporate innovation lab. But the focus isn't consumer AI or chatbots. The center will develop AI data center blueprints, cloud infrastructure, advanced networking, 5G, edge computing, and AI-ready digital architecture. In other words, it's focused on building the foundation that future AI systems will run on. This becomes much more intere

The  Silicon Roller Coaster & Which Chip Stocks to Buy? 🌟🌟🌟The semiconductor sector underwent an absolute high velocity short squeeze.  The Direxion 3x Leveraged Semiconductor Bull ETF ( SOXL) surged a violent 24% in a single session.  Memory giant Micron jumped 11.66%, networking master Marvell surged 11% and legacy titan Intel climbed 9.27%. Is this explosive bounce a good time to buy these semiconductor stocks or is it a brutal bear market trap? Let's take a closer look at what these stocks do and why they are up. $Micron Technology(MU)$  is the AI Storage Vault.  Micron is one of the only 3 global companies capable of manufacturing High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).  Think of graphics ch

The semiconductor sector has been an absolute thriller lately. This classic "roller coaster" behavior—where a sharp multi-week pullback is followed by an aggressive, violent rip to the upside—is exactly what we expect when macro jitters collide with undeniable, structural AI fundamentals. With $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ turning on a dime and surging over 24% off its immediate lows, the big question is how to play the pre-earnings summer stretch. Has the Sector Bottomed Out? It looks highly likely that we’ve put in a solid, medium-term local bottom. What we just witnessed wasn't a crack in the fundamental AI thesis; it was an inventory and valuation "cleansing cycle." Institutional capital used macroeconomic noise to shake

At 4.2%, headline inflation hit a three-year high. It looks scary on the surface. But the inflation signal that matters more for the Fed is actually moving lower. And last night’s sell-off in U.S. stocks may have had more to do with Iran risk than with inflation itself. Two major events collided last night: US headline CPI for May came in at 4.2% year-over-year, while the three major US stock indices nosedived in lockstep, with the Dow shedding nearly 1,000 points. Post-market commentary was practically unanimous: sticky inflation will force a hawkish pivot from the Fed, hence the market sell-off. This assessment gets the market logic backward. 1. Hawkish Headline, Dovish Core Let’s break down the CPI data first. While the 4.2% headline figure is jarring, it’s not the primary signal the Fe

A Contradiction Hiding in Plain Sight On June 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released May CPI data. Core CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month—both above consensus expectations of 3.6% and 0.3%. Housing, transportation services, and electricity continued to drive the upside surprise. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 4.18%, its largest single-day decline in 14 months. The market's prior trading thesis was linear: ceasefire → oil price decline → inflation eases → Fed stays accommodative → tech stocks continue higher. But Brent crude had already fallen from $120 to $88. Energy's contribution to CPI was actively contracting. Inflation still printed above expectations, which means the force pushing prices higher is no longer in the energy complex. So what is? One answ

At GTC Taipei 2026, NVIDIA rolled out more than a dozen major announcements. The lineup was broad: Vera, a data center CPU built for AI agents; RTX Spark, a platform for personal AI PCs; DGX Station for Windows, a desktop AI supercomputer for enterprises; new robotics foundation models; autonomous driving platforms; and a broader AI factory stack. This was not just a product launch. It felt more like Jensen Huang laying out NVIDIA’s roadmap for the next stage of AI. The first AI boom put NVIDIA at the center of AI compute. This new roadmap points to a bigger ambition: NVIDIA does not just want to sell GPUs into the AI cycle. It wants to become the infrastructure layer underpinning the next generation of AI applications. 1. Vera: A CPU Built for the Agent Era AI demand is moving from pure t