[Heart]Hello Tigers,Is the US market curently a Carnival Before the Bubble Bursts or a "Baby Bubble"?[Allin]On September 25, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower for the third consecutive day: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 0.38%, erasing all gains since the Federal Reserve signaled a "50bp rate cut" on September 18; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped another 0.5%, with a cumulative 1.8% decline over three days; and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ also fell 0.5%, showing obvious short-term pressure.Latest Valuation Check-Up: Big-3 Indexes & Mag-7 at a Glance:TickerLatest Price($)YTD 2025TTW P/EForward P/EAverage P/E in 10 yrsForward P/E VS. Average P/E in 10 yrs

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $ISHARES S&P MID-CAP ETF/AUS(IJH.AU)$ $Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF(RSP)$ I’m keeping this simple. The spread in forward P/E between U.S. large caps and SMID caps has blown out again. As of 26Sep25, the S&P 500 sits near 22.5× forward earnings while the S&P 400 and S&P 600 are nearer 17.1× and 16.6×. That’s a double-digit multiple premium for size rather than for quality. The Yardeni-style chart makes it obvious; large caps have rerated while SMID has not. 🧩 Why that matters The JPM data frames it perfectly: the 30-year average forward P/E is 17.0×. Today’s 22.5× means investors are paying a 30%+ premium to history. Ad

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro Headlines This Week:The market is reassessing rate cut expectations. Due to slightly stronger economic data (particularly employment-related indicators), the market has been forced to adjust its expectations for further rate cuts. Some participants are questioning whether the labor market is more resilient than anticipated, leading to a resurgence in the U.S. dollar's strength. The three major indices all hit weekly lows as investors worry that the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of rate cuts. Meanwhile, technical corrections and profit-taking emerged in the market, with U.S. Treasury yields (long-end) rising, putting pressure on high-valuation tech and growth stocks.Political pressures on central bank independence, potential U.S. government shutdown, and co

In a public speech in the early morning of September 24, 2025, Powell bluntly stated, "By many metrics, stock prices are quite high."This wasn't his first time warning about valuations, but it was the first time he used the term "quite high" after both $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ hit new all-time highs, instantly sending the question of "are US stocks expensive?" to the forefront of online search.The market also voted with its feet—the Nasdaq fell nearly 1% on the day of his speech, while AI leaders $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Oracle(ORCL)$ both fell over 2%.1. Are They Expensive? Putting Today’s Data into a Historica

$BlackBerry(BB)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Thursday, September 25, 2025, before the market opens. Revenue: Approximately $122 million - $125 million. This is generally forecast to be a year-over-year decline (around 13-14%), reflecting macroeconomic and automotive sector challenges, despite a slight raise in full-year guidance in the previous quarter. Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share): Consensus is generally around $0.01. Summary of BlackBerry (BB) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings BlackBerry reported a strong quarter that exceeded its guidance across key financial metrics, driven by solid execution in its core software divisions. Key Highlights: QNX Momentum: The Internet of Things (IoT) division, anchored by the QNX operating syst

$Jabil Circuit(JBL)$ is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, September 25, 2025. Here is an analysis of what investors should be watching and potential short-term trading opportunities. EPS and Revenue: Analysts are forecasting an EPS of approximately $2.81 on revenue of around $7.6 billion. This would represent a significant year-over-year increase for both metrics, reflecting the company's recent growth trajectory. A meaningful beat or miss on these numbers will likely dictate the initial stock reaction. Summary of Jabil (JBL) Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings Jabil Inc. reported strong fiscal Q3 2025 results on June 17, 2025, beating analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company's performance

👇🤔Weekly Top 20 Insider Sells: HOOD, DELL, WMT & MoreHi Tigers~ The following are the top 20 stocks with the most Insider Sells in the past week.Data source: Bloomberg, data cutoff date: September 19th, 2025.Read more for the upcoming week>>🎁Weekly Higher EPS Estimates: COST, MU, ACN, CTAS, AZO & More🎁Capturing Top 10 Ex_dividend: LOGI, RCL, CINF, UHT, EQR...📈Top Performing Growth Stocks 2025: OKLO, OPEN, MP & MoreWeekly: Fedspeak and PCE to test stock market at record high

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The S&P 500 just clawed back from a brutal three-day skid, but let's cut the fluff—this isn't some gentle correction; it's a stark reminder that the bull run had legs made of nitro. After the Fed's September powwow sparked a quick sugar high, those gains evaporated faster than a meme stock pump. Blame it on scorching jobs reports and consumer spending figures that screamed "no rush on those rate slashes," leaving traders jittery as tech behemoths like Oracle cratered 5% in a single gut punch. Nasdaq's bleeding out on AI hype fatigue, Dow's dragging its blue-chip boots, and suddenly everyone's whispering about overcooked multiples. But here's the real gut check: is

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Jerome Powell’s mic-drop moment—calling U.S. stock valuations “quite high” by multiple metrics—sent the S&P 500 (SPY at 661.10, per the finance card above), Nasdaq, and Dow into a tailspin, each shedding 0.6%, 0.9%, and 0.2% respectively on September 24. The warning wasn’t just a vibe check; it was a direct shot at frothy P/E ratios (S&P 500 at 23x forward earnings) and a labor market flashing yellow with unemployment ticking to 4.3%. Yet, with futures creeping up 0.1-0.2% pre-market and historical year-end rallies in play, the market’s at a crossroads: correction cliff or Santa Claus s

Powell Warns of Overvalued Stocks: Crash Coming or Year-End Rally Ahead? 📉📈 When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that “by many measures, U.S. stock valuations are quite high,” the reaction was immediate. U.S. equity markets slipped, with the three major indexes turning lower and extending losses. For investors who have been riding this bull market, Powell’s words were more than just an observation — they were a direct challenge to the foundation of market sentiment. We know the U.S. stock market has rallied hard in recent years, fueled by optimism over artificial intelligence, strong earnings in megacaps, and expectations that the Fed will eventually cut rates. But as valuations climb, the risks increase. The S&P 500 now trades at multiples well above historical average

The Fed's top voice dropping truth bombs on frothy equities isn't just chatter—it's a market mood-killer that's already shaved points off the bulls' parade. With the benchmark index flirting with nosebleed multiples and tech titans stumbling, the big question boils down to survival tactics: Lock in gains, dial up defense, or ride the seasonal wave? Digging into the data, sentiment, and street-smart moves reveals a landscape primed for volatility, but not total Armageddon. Here's the unvarnished playbook to navigate this tightrope without face-planting. Valuation Reality Check: Premium Pricing or Bubble Territory? Eye-popping metrics paint a picture of exuberance on steroids. The trailing P/E has surged to 30.58, a full 50% above the long-term norm of around 20, while forward estimates hove

Introduction: Unpacking Powell’s Warning On September 24, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that U.S. stock valuations appear “quite high” by many measures. This statement triggered an immediate drop in the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq, extending recent losses and sparking debates about a potential year-end crash or rally. At first glance, it might seem like a warning of a valuation bubble. However, a deeper look at the global economic landscape suggests Powell’s comment is more a routine caution than a harbinger of collapse. Amid a struggling global economy, volatile cryptocurrencies, and Europe’s political turmoil, U.S. stocks’ “high” valuations reflect a justified premium—America remains the only economy capable of anchoring the world’s capital. This article argues t

When U.S. equities are expensive, investors often look for diversifiers to manage valuation and macro risks. In this article, I would like to share how we are breaking them down into three parts: U.S. stock valuations, Precious metals, Cryptocurrencies With this approach, we will pull them together in portfolio terms. U.S. Stock Valuations Current backdrop: U.S. equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq) trade at forward P/E ~20–22x, above long-term averages (~15–16x). This leaves limited margin of safety. Macro risks: Rate cuts may support valuations, but sticky inflation, slowing earnings growth, or geopolitical shocks could expose downside. Implication: Overvaluation suggests future returns (next 5–7 years) may be below average. S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio as of 25 Sep 2025 is at 23.45, in late A

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ I’m fully convinced this FOMC print is a defining pivot in the 2025 macro playbook. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25%, as expected, with Stephen L. Miran dissenting for a deeper 50 bps cut. This isn’t just a technical adjustment; it signals the beginning of a new policy glide path. 📌 Dot Plot & Projections The Bloomberg dot plot overlay confirms the dovish shift: 2025: 3.625% vs June’s 3.875% 2026: 3.375% vs 3.625% 2027: 3.125% (unchanged) 2028: 3.125% (new) Longer-run: 3.00% (anchored) The visual shows the dots converging lower, aligning with Fed funds futures pricin

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Jerome Powell dropped a bombshell, calling U.S. stock valuations "quite high" by multiple metrics, sending the major indexes into a quick retreat. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all erased gains and closed lower, with tech giants like Nvidia leading the slide amid broader concerns over inflated asset prices. This isn't just chatter – it's a direct hit on the investor confidence that's propelled markets to record highs this year. But here's the twist: history shows indexes love to climb into the final stretch of the calendar, often ignoring short-term jitters for a seasonal boost. So, is this pullback the start of a deeper correction, or merely a speed bump before a f