SPY has hit the first pullback target at 670. Whether it continues down to 650 next is anyone's guess. The Israel-Iran conflict could still escalate — or de-escalate. De-escalation leads to a bounce. Escalation leads to more downside. Trying to predict the trajectory of a chaotic event like this is a fool's game. But one thing's clear: downside feels easier than upside right now. Tail risk is getting priced in big time. Volatility is spiking. Puts are expensive. Look at SPY flows — traders are leaning into 0DTE and weekly puts to hedge crash risk. Short-dated, sharp, directional. This environment? Not ideal for the usual sell-put routine. Probably stays that way through mid-April — about 4–5 weeks, per Trump's own estimate. Options price risk. When risk stops behaving within a normal range

First, let's look at this week's large orders from the "Put Buyer." Sell Puts: $ORCL 20260306 116.0 PUT$ : 85,000 contracts sold to open $SMH 20260306 350.0 PUT$ : 26,000 contracts sold to open However, the play on AMD was different — Buy Puts: $AMD 20260306 160.0 PUT$ : 42,000 contracts bought to open Implied volatility (IV) on out-of-the-money semiconductor puts remains extremely elevated. This isn't due to bearish AI commentary, but rather the macroeconomic risk-off sentiment stemming from the Israel-Iran war, fueling expectations of a broad market pullback. It's crucial to note that t

$NVDA$ First glance at the flows and one thing's clear — 170 is the line. The 170 put for March 6 expiry just printed 238k contracts. At this size, whether buy or sell, it's gonna act as a magnet. But it also means breaking below 170 is gonna be tough. So back to the usual: 170–195 chop. Next week's institutional call spread? Sell 192.5 $NVDA 20260306 192.5 CALL$ , hedge with 200 $NVDA 20260306 200.0 CALL$ . And the put sales keep stacking: $ORCL 20260306 130.0 PUT$  — 48k opened$SMH 20260306 355.0 PUT$  — 62k opened<

NVDA's earnings event was priced like a macro print — and it traded like one too. FOMC-style: sell the headline, maybe bounce the next day. NVDA? We'll see. Early flow doesn’t look great. A bearish position opened: 10k April 2nd 160 puts $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Notional: ~$2M. April 2nd rings a bell. Last year’s tariff shock. This trade might not just be about earnings — macro’s in the driver’s seat. Iran, tariffs, China. Any of these could move markets. Even with macro hanging overhead, I still think NVDA is a sell-the-dip name. Could be a chop year. Range still looks 170–195. Unless Trump does something stupid — then all bets are off. This year is setup for a brutal bull-bear fight. Core question: where does the mon

Checking today's option flows — another wave of massive weekly put sales across chips: $AMD 20260227 192.5 PUT$  — 70k opened$AVGO 20260227 285.0 PUT$  — 20k opened$ORCL 20260227 131.0 PUT$  — 15k opened$SMH 20260227 390.0 PUT$  — 13k opened$TSM 20260227 360.0 PUT$  — 13k opened This has the same vibe as pre-holiday put sales back in Jan. But here's the twist: this time delta is below 0.08 — way lower than the 0.13–0.18 range from before. Dig deeper and

$NVDA$ The bull-bear battle this year has never been more intense. Just when I thought this week's NVDA earnings were a foregone conclusion, this order hit the tape: Buy Call $NVDA 20260320 205.0 CALL$  Block print: 29k contracts opened. Estimated notional: $13M+. Meanwhile, the weekly call spread camp is running: Sell Call 195 $NVDA 20260227 195.0 CALL$  / Buy Call 202.5 $NVDA 20260227 202.5 CALL$ . Translation: this week, 195 likely caps. And looking at put flow, downside could stretch below 180. But here’s the twist — call strikes below 200 are thinning out. Totally different from

$MU 20260220 360.0 PUT$ 

Checking the option flow today, I ran into a familiar sight — a wave of deep OUTM put sales across major chip names. Last seen on Jan 26. Flashback to Jan 22: $NVDA 20260220 175.0 PUT$  — 109.8k opened$AMD 20260220 187.5 PUT$  — 74.9k opened$ORCL 20260220 137.0 PUT$  — 56.8k opened$SMH 20260220 380.0 PUT$  — 43.4k opened$AVGO 20260220 305.0 PUT$  — 41.0k opened$MU 20260220 362.5 PUT$  —

$NVDA$ Barring any surprises, NVIDIA looks set to continue grinding between 170 and 200 through the first half of the year—a sweet spot for option sellers. I came across 10k contracts opened on the $NVDA 20260618 220.0 CALL$ . Nothing flagged as a block trade, but digging into the fills shows the orders were chopped up into tiny pieces. The screenshot says it all. Most of the flow? Sell-side. Not a coincidence—Broadcom showed the exact same footprint. $AVGO 20260618 400.0 CALL$  also saw around 10k contracts, finely sliced, same direction: sells. Why the cloak-and-dagger? Likely to avoid getting front-run. Both are ~0.35 delta. If the stock runs the wr

$NVDA$ Looking at the option flows, NVDA's upcoming earnings next week don't seem to have any substantial impact on the stock's trend. Seeing that large sell call order at the 205 strike for March 13th $NVDA 20260313 205.0 CALL$  tells me the market still expects the top to hold. The main issue is that the AI sector trend is too transparent—there are no major off-exchange catalysts to add fuel. What the market really needs is a groundbreaking use case or a significant leap forward. Anything beyond that is already priced in, just burning through valuation. That said, with earnings approaching, implied volatility is picking up, which means more premium for sellers to harvest. For now, the range holds through early March: 1

Positive news from OpenAI, with monthly growth rate recovering by 10%, directly ignited a short squeeze on Monday, crushing the bears. However, subsequent market action will likely continue with sector rotation. $NVDA$ Both large bullish and bearish single-leg orders appeared (not a spread): $NVDA 20260220 175.0 PUT$ , 64,000 contracts opened. $NVDA 20260220 207.5 CALL$ , 78,000 contracts opened. Based on the overall opening activity, the price is highly likely to continue oscillating within the large 170-190 range from this week into next. Therefore, the 207.5 call is quite intriguing; currently, it seems difficult for the price to break above 200 even

$TSLA$ Key News: Cybercab autonomous electric vehicle enters mass production at the Texas factory, aiming to increase utilization to 50-60 hours per week. Energy segment emerges as a new growth driver; Shanghai energy storage factory operational; $200 billion budgeted for AI and Energy sectors in 2026. FSD advances localized training in China, though constrained by regulations, using existing data for tuning. Options Analysis: Current Implied Volatility (IV) is relatively high, indicating market expectation for significant price movement. Overall sentiment leans bullish. This Week (2/13): Expected to swing widely within $400 - $430. Next Week (2/20): The range may widen to $395 - $440. Key Support: $400 - $405. This interval has highly concentrated put option (PUT) open interest, forming a

Checked the 300k contract VIX 35 call position $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$ , it's still open, suggesting the correction is not yet over. $NVDA$ Next week continues the search for a bottom. A large bearish order opened: the weekly expiry 157.5 put $NVDA 20260213 157.5 PUT$ , with 60,000 contracts for a total notional of over $6 million. Therefore, tonight's rally is more suitable for selling calls. Consider strikes above 190: $NVDA 20260213 190.0 CALL$  I noticed institutions opened a 177.5–182.5 call spread for next week $NVDA 20

You probably remember the 300k contract VIX call orders we mentioned a couple of days ago: $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$  $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$ . Unexpectedly, the sell-off has begun so quickly. Currently, it looks like a bottom will be formed before mid-March, presenting a great buying opportunity at that time. $NVDA$ Regarding this collective pullback in the AI sector, there's not much to elaborate on. The fact that there are fewer investable assets in the market is not a good sign. Looking back to 2025, it was a vibrant market where one could pick winners with ease—that was the best environment, not just for investing but for AI development itself. Althou

$VIX$ Another massive bullish volatility order has appeared. The March 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260318 35.0 CALL$  traded 300,000 contracts for a total notional value of over $20 million. Opened around the same time was the February 18th expiry 35 call $VIX 20260218 35.0 CALL$ , trading 250,000 contracts. Based on SPY's option activity, the probability of a major decline this week seems low. However, historical patterns suggest a non-negligible chance of a correction starting in late February. $GOOGL$ Google now enjoys the privilege of Monday & Wednesday weekly expiry options, though none expire on its actual earnings day. As the current undisputed l

$NVDA$ This week marks the launch of Monday and Wednesday weekly expiry options. For these new short-dated contracts, we'll observe for a week before formulating strategies. Overall, NVDA's price is expected to remain below 195 this week. Institutions continue selling the 195 call $NVDA 20260206 195.0 CALL$ , hedged by buying the 200 call $NVDA 20260206 200.0 CALL$ . The lower bound is more nuanced. 170 remains a potential target, but stability around 190 cannot be ruled out. Analyzing open interest for the Feb 2nd and Feb 4th expiries suggests the possibility of a minor pullback in NVDA following earnings from AMD or Google. $AMD$ The rise of agentic

$GLD$ Today, scanning large orders, I was startled to see a massive call buy on the Gold ETF: $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ , with 80,000 contracts traded for a total notional value of $71.33 million. Later, I discovered an equally large sell call order. Placed simultaneously, they likely constitute a paired, combination order—specifically, a Bear Call Spread: Sell Call $GLD 20260213 495.0 CALL$ , Buy Call $GLD 20260213 505.0 CALL$ . This positions for GLD to be below 495 by February 13th, with the long 505 call serving as protection. At this stage, the conviction behind a sell call order c

$TSLA$ Tesla reports earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. Currently, anxiety outweighs expectations. There might be little news on autonomous driving, but 2026 delivery figures may not be very optimistic, likely slightly higher than 2025 deliveries. The expected trading range is between 400 and 465. If the stock price drops after earnings tomorrow, it would be more suitable for selling puts. $MSFT$ Earnings prospects are not particularly optimistic. The focus is on cloud business growth, Copilot monetization, and capital expenditures. The latter two have a probability of being underwhelming. If Microsoft's capex disappoints, it could weigh on other tech and chip stocks. Of course, a pullback also presents an opportunity. The weekly expiry 445 call

$AAPL$ Apple has seen a large bullish call order. The May 15th expiry 285 call $AAPL 20260515 285.0 CALL$  had 69,000 contracts opened, with a total notional value of approximately $34+ million. Although I believe Apple's performance this year may still be weighed down by high memory prices, this doesn't prevent the market and large investors from perceiving a potential bottom. With earnings this week, selling the 250 put is an option: $AAPL 20260130 250.0 PUT$ . $FXI$ Regarding the large bearish China ETF orders, I discovered someone shared my analysis in a group, causing some panic. However, a massive, deep out-of-the-money bearish order like