In early 2025, I modeled a potential decline to $4,800 for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ; the index eventually bottomed at $4,830 in April. This followed my previous warnings regarding the July 2024 selloff, which ultimately found its floor during the Yen carry-trade liquidation in August. Today, we are witnessing a distinct asymmetric condition in the market. Sectors outside of Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are rallying, while Tech, Megacaps, and Bitcoin (BTC used as a “risk-on” thermometer), have already reached oversold conditions. This is atypical, as major market tops are usually characterized by synchronized overbought conditions across all sectors. In today’s publication you will read the different signals to watch ahead of
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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Volatility Returns? Tactical Setups in SPX, QQQ, SMH, GLD Amid Iran Risk
Volatility Returns? Tactical Setups in SPX, QQQ, SMH, GLD Amid Iran Risk
$NVDA - Price has also bounced from the highlighted demand zone
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - The stochastic oscillator curling up from oversold territory has reliably signaled bullish reversals during previous pullbacks. Price has also bounced from the highlighted demand zone at the lower edge of the volume shelf. All eyes are now on the 50 DMA (purple), which is expected to turn into support. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageOne of the reasons why a pullback is not guaranteed 👍.Image
$NVDA - Price has also bounced from the highlighted demand zone
SPX Daily Chart: A technical bounce is normal after a bearish engulfing candle
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ A technical bounce like the one seen today is normal after a bearish engulfing candle.With or without green continuation on Tuesday, further decline is expected, there are recent references highlighted in the chart.A bearish MACD cross is around the corner, that would validate the thesis of a healthy pullback coming. If it happens, a visit to the 20 and 50DMA zone is expected.The Bullish crossover in 20 and 50 DMAs looks like the welcome sign for Summer season. Suggesting that a healthy pullback would be a buying opportunity. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2406(ESmain)$
SPX Daily Chart: A technical bounce is normal after a bearish engulfing candle
$NVDA - Holding the Line: Will the Volume Shelf Support a Bounce?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - Holding the Line: Will the Volume Shelf Support a Bounce? The 50-day moving average has flipped to resistance, and the oscillator is not yet oversold. The rapid retracement from Monday's bounce is explained by the Bollinger Bands, with a shooting star forming above the upper band. NVDA is at a critical juncture; a bounce is needed here, as the lower band and volume shelf are at $127.After one more big down? That's what the picture suggests, it's one shelf against many indicators. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF(VTI)$
$NVDA - Holding the Line: Will the Volume Shelf Support a Bounce?
NVDA - Death Cross
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - Death Cross: It happens when the 50-day MA falls below the 200-day MA as highlighted in the chart.In addition, the 20-day MA has rejected any bounce attempt during the last two weeks. Only a break above 20DMA and $118.4 would give some hope for a bounce to $127.Just a year ago NVDA was going to the moon! Indeed, and it soared to $150, but gravity exists for consolidations.ImageThis is my analysis the other day：NVDA shows a promising bounce, but next week will reveal if it can overcome the typical volatility at the 50 DMA, especially given its convergence with the 200 DMA. We'll see if it leads to a rejection, potentially filling the two highlighted gaps.➡️ Is this a lower high or a solid bounce?Image
NVDA - Death Cross
Russell2000 confirmed a base breakout above $2133-$2100
Russell2000 $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ confirmed a base breakout above $2133-$2100.It indicates potential upside beyond resistances at approximately $2288 and $2350-$2360, as well as surpassing the late 2021 peak of $2459, towards the upper target of $2620. The surge in RTY stocks reaching new 52-week highs suggests that the RTY is likely to sustain this upward breakout. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini Russell 2000 - main 2409(RTYmain)$ Imagehttps://x.com/SmartReversals/status/1816825688319508664
Russell2000 confirmed a base breakout above $2133-$2100
$NVDA - This jumpy one likes to play with the premarket session
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - This jumpy one likes to play with the premarket sessionA bearish engulfing candle is a negative setup for bulls that opens the day above the previous one, and dedicates the session to fall dearly. That happened on Friday, and in recent pullback initiations. Will this time be different?The Stochastic, Bollinger high, and the high edge of the volume profile suggest this time won't be different.How deep? maybe the demand zone works again (still a painful fall), in the end there is a bullish crossover between 20 and 50DMA Image
$NVDA - This jumpy one likes to play with the premarket session
SPX Daily Chart: Bullish Signals Emerging, Key Checkpoints Ahead
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ - Daily Chart:Promising move, the inverted hammer had validation, since today’s opening was above the previous day’s body.50DMA was recovered, and Williams%R is showing a move comparable with the last bottom.There are two pending checkpoints: Jumping above the 5DMA, which is still governing the very short term trend, and triggering a bullish crossover in Stochastic.Today’s candle was not an example of conviction, but is not bearish either; and volume was high.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$Imagehttps://x.com/SmartReversals/status/1816929818224582709
SPX Daily Chart: Bullish Signals Emerging, Key Checkpoints Ahead
Bearish Signals Abound: IWM, SPX, VIX and SPY Under Pressure
1. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ That 50DMA better holds, losing that level usually brings deep declines.Seems that the weekly bearish setup was delayed a week given the $GameStop(GME)$ euphoria.Image2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ & $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Can we see the drop yesterday as a fake one since we are below 12.95 on the vix and day is hadding down again?I like this question about SPX and VIX. Ans: Possible, but let's pay attention to 5DMA; it's still resistance at this moment.$5288 is a daily support that must hold, it has worked during the last 45 minutes.If that's the case for the day, 5DMA has to be surpass
Bearish Signals Abound: IWM, SPX, VIX and SPY Under Pressure
Relief Bounce vs. Risk-Off Reality: Market Still Must Prove a Bottom
The catalyst for Friday’s turnaround emerged from dovish commentary by New York Fed President John Williams, whose remarks suggesting “near term” rate reduction prospects galvanized sentiment following Thursday’s sharp selloff. Futures markets swiftly repriced the probability of a December policy easing to 75%, jumping from roughly 40% just one day prior. However, this optimism confronts a significant challenge: Federal Reserve policymakers will navigate the December decision without critical October and November inflation and labor data, a consequence of the prolonged government shutdown. Economic anxiety is further reflected in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which deteriorated to 51 in November as concerns over persistent elevated prices and labor market stability
Relief Bounce vs. Risk-Off Reality: Market Still Must Prove a Bottom
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