$S&P 500(.SPX)$ - Gap and Bearish Reversal Candle: The 20DMA was momentarily breached, but the rally faded. Still closing in the green, this setup usually brings bearish continuation, which is good, because based on the recent explosions in percentage of stocks rising, this would bring a buying opportunity.This is the perfect candle ahead of any government's communication.PS： The recent violent market action is characteristic of a bear market. Despite this, the rapid recovery from Monday's selloff was impressive, even considering today's bearish candle that hints at an imminent gap fill. Crucially, two events suggest that any subsequent dip or selloff would present a buying opportunity.Image For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦
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SPX - Gap and Bearish Reversal Candle
Tesla is Testing Key Resistance
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is showing bullish price action after hours. If the stock opens around $250 tomorrow, it will find itself just below the 20-day moving average (DMA), the very line that rejected price after the last earnings report. While past performance isn't a guarantee, the $255 level presents a potential resistance to monitor closely tomorrow.Given the earnings report fell short of expectations, the resulting gap lower is likely to be filled within a couple of days, especially with any potential negative news.I thought the after hours rally was because Musk said he will be back to Tesla leaving DOGE.But no… the catalyst was Trump…ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 2
Tesla is Testing Key Resistance
SPX - Gap filled✅, and oscillators are trying to curl up
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ - Gap filled✅, and oscillators are trying to curl up: The move is promising, but technically speaking, the downtrend is intact considering the candle below the 5 and 10 DMA. For any bullish consideration, the grey line has to be conquered tomorrow.Image $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ - The weekly chart provides a clearer view of the volume shelf that offered support. However, a break below $506 would likely lead to $492 imminently. While the overall setup remains bearish, the low volume observed on the zoomed-in daily chart despite the significant sell-off raises an interesting question: is the selling pressure becoming exhausted?ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from belo
SPX - Gap filled✅, and oscillators are trying to curl up
SPY & QQQ - The Selloff Continues
1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The weekly chart provides a clearer view of the volume shelf that offered support today. However, a break below $506 would likely lead to $492 imminently. While the overall setup remains bearish, the low volume observed on the zoomed-in daily chart despite the significant sell-off raises an interesting question: is the selling pressure becoming exhausted?Image2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ In case of a temporary spike tomorrow morning, be mindful of $432.9 as a critical level; because if it is lost, or continues as resistance, $421 is the next destination. Why temporary spike? Because the Bollinger bands, and every oscillator is currently indicating a downward trajectory.ImageThe
SPY & QQQ - The Selloff Continues
Bearish Reversal in DJI: $40.4K Rejection Signals Trouble Ahead
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : Last week's setup appeared ready for a bounce. The annual $38.3K level held well as support, and the green candle initially suggested continuation or, at the very least, indecision (like a doji candle we've seen). However, today's conviction in the red candle completely changes the landscape. This reflects a clear rejection from the monthly $40.4K level, coinciding with resistance from the weekly 5-period moving average.The volume gap, highlighted by the double arrow, further supports the thesis of rapid moves between these key price levels ('shelves'). Additionally, the RSI is falling once more.Based on this price action, the Dow Jones is suggesting potential downside next week. As long as it continues trading below $39,628, t
Bearish Reversal in DJI: $40.4K Rejection Signals Trouble Ahead
Make or Break - 3 Indicators to Monitor This Week
Monday brought the expected bounce; however, the gap-up seen during such uncertainty suggested a prompt fill, which indeed happened later that same day.Today, significant pessimism pervades the stock market. This analysis will balance this sentiment with price action, given that excessive negative sentiment has often preceded rallies in recent years, including during the 2022 bear market.Let's examine the average stock exposure reported by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. As shown in the chart below, which starts from 2022, allocations below 30% have historically preceded bear market rallies. For instance, a 6.5% short-lived rally occurred in May 2022, a multi-week 19% rally began in mid-June 2022, and the low allocations in October 2022 and 2023 coincided with marke
Make or Break - 3 Indicators to Monitor This Week
PLTR - Underlying weekly candle suggests extreme caution
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ : While last week's 6% rally appears promising, the underlying weekly candle suggests extreme caution due to indecision. This cautious signal is reinforced by the volume shelf acting as potential resistance at $99. Similar occurrences in the past (marked by red arrows) have preceded pullbacks. ➡️Is this time different? For bullish continuation to be considered, the level of $94.1 needs to be decisively recovered; otherwise $89.3 will be revisited this week.Last week, in the Weekly Compass I posted $99.2 as bullish target, and that was exactly the rejection point🎯.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission.
PLTR - Underlying weekly candle suggests extreme caution
AAPL & QQQ at Key Junctures
1. $Apple(AAPL)$ moves from the lower Bollinger band to the higher one and vice-versa. However, the 20 daily average can interrupt the sequence as it is happening since March (3 times already and highlighed). Since the fast oscillator is overbought, and the lower band is widening, managing risk for longs is vital. This daily timeframe suggests further downside.Image2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ - The volume profile has provided clues of rejection zones, as on April 2nd, 9th, and 11th. Last Wednesday and Thursday, the price found support in the lower volume shelf highlighted. However, the Stochastic suggests a decline is coming. Given the mixed signals the use of support and resistance levels is key: bearish if pri
AAPL & QQQ at Key Junctures
GOLD Recorded Inflows and BTC Presented Notable Resilience
1.GOLD $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ : Record Inflows: You may remember what happened after the record inflows to small caps and the same for big tech (similar chart). Manage risk using S/R levels for $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ and $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ with the latest publication👇.Image2.Two securities presented notable resilience, $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ and Bitcoin; both managing to stay above their central levels:BITCOIN:The bounce thesis is still on for this security considering the support provided by $81.7K, some choppy price action is expected, but considering oversold oscillators, a scenario like Au
GOLD Recorded Inflows and BTC Presented Notable Resilience
The selloff is not over for Nvidia
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ - The Death Cross is Old News: What is worth watching now is the loss of the 5 daily moving average (grey), and the previous bounces only triggered when the Stochastic is oversold.The selloff is not over for Nvidia.The news about $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and the current uncertainty affected the setup, and as mentioned last week, the levels help to set ranges in times when prices are presenting rapid swings.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free
The selloff is not over for Nvidia
SPX - Is the Corrective Bounce Invalidated?
During the week that just ended, the expected bounce started on Monday AM, however, with a gap up, which in volatile markets like this one is risky considering the chances of a rapid fill, which happened during that same day.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ managed to stay above its central level, actually $5,226 was the precise level from where the price bounced on Wednesday, as $521 for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , $182.7 for $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ , $441.5 for $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , and $18,155 for $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . Tech provided an example of levels momentarily breached.T
SPX - Is the Corrective Bounce Invalidated?
Investing with support and resistance levels is a cornerstone of technical analysis
Investing with support and resistance levels is a cornerstone of technical analysis and a vital practice for traders of all experience levels. Here's why it's so important:1. Identifying Potential Turning Points: Support and resistance levels represent areas on a price chart where buying or selling pressure has historically been strong enough to halt and potentially reverse the current trend. Recognizing these levels helps you anticipate where price might change direction, offering strategic entry and exit points.2. Defining Risk and Setting Stop Losses: These levels provide logical references to set stop-loss orders. If you enter a long position near a support level, a break below that level can signal that the bullish assumption was invalidated, making it a prudent place to limit potenti
Investing with support and resistance levels is a cornerstone of technical analysis
SPX Bounce thesis still on
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : As anticipated yesterday, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ declined; however, that was not the case for SP500, but the index managed to stay in the light green. No surprise, who would close with a big bounce ahead of a long weekend with such uncertainty? Bounce thesis still on.The lack of conviction in price action is widening again the lower Bollinger band. The potential implication is a delay in the bounce and the risk of lower lows. The oscillator is setting up a bearish reversal as well.Not a good close for the week, even with a resilient price action despite of $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$
SPX Bounce thesis still on
Analyzing SPY's Death Cross
Charts tell stories, let's talk Moving Average Crossovers, considering the recent death cross in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ (50DMA in yellow and 200DMA in pink)Simple, effective, but not foolproof.ImageMAs smooth out price action. Think 20-day (short-term; blue), 50-day (medium-term; orange), 200-day (“the big picture” pink). A Crossover? It's when a faster MA goes above or dives below a slower one.🚀📉ImageBullish Crossover (aka "Golden Cross" for 50/200): Short-term MA breaks above Long-term MA. The market's whispering potential upside momentum. Could be confirmation or an early entry signal.SPY in February 2023:ImageBearish Crossover (aka "Death Cross" for 50/200): Short-term MA slices below Long-term MA. Suggests downside momentum kicking
Analyzing SPY's Death Cross
SPX & BTC bounce tomorrow cannot be ruled out
1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ - The low was right at $5,226: Indecision candle (mostly bearish), with bullish MACD crossover and the mentioned support that worked well today. A bounce tomorrow cannot be ruled out. Invalidation of the bounce thesis: $5,226. Image2.Bitcoin - I still see a bounce: Hammer breaching the lower band, followed by choppy price action, and finally bullish crossover in oversold zone.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.
SPX & BTC bounce tomorrow cannot be ruled out
A Bounce Could Be Near
Stock market analysis also follows trends. If you experienced the 2022 bear market and were active on social media, you likely recall the proliferation of Elliott Wave "experts," with every move neatly labeled as an ABC or a 1-5 sequence. When those patterns failed, the conversation would shift to the truncations of zigzags or flats.One crucial lesson I've learned over years in the stock market is that constantly switching between different analytical approaches can be costly. Every indicator offers a probability that fluctuates with price action. While understanding which indicators best explain current market movements is helpful, relying solely on statistical probabilities can be risky, as this approach often overlooks crucial chart patterns and overextended conditions.Today, the statis
A Bounce Could Be Near
SPX - Conflicting signals
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ - Conflicting signals: Bearish Death Cross (50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA) versus a bullish MACD crossover. The indecisive candle closing near the 20 DMA suggests that this moving average is once again hindering the bounce's continuation. A red day following a bullish MACD cross is normal. All eyes on tomorrow's candle and the $5226 level, which is the line in the sand to invalidate the bounce thesis. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in tradin
SPX - Conflicting signals
Rare Earths & Market Impact
Geopolitical tensions are directly impacting markets. The latest flashpoint? Rare Earth Minerals. Reports indicate China, controlling ~92% of global processing, is restricting exports to the US. This isn't just news; it's a major variable for investors. 🧵👇ImageWhy does this matter? Rare earths are CRITICAL for modern tech: iPhones, EVs, wind turbines, advanced weaponry (F-35s, subs), MRI machines & more. China's dominance gives it significant leverage, turning these minerals into strategic assetsThe reported export controls on 7 types of rare earths (+ related products like magnets) directly target key US industries. Unlike tariffs, this is leverage where the US has limited immediate retaliation options due to dependency (70% of US imports 2020-23 came from China).Portfolio Impacthis h
Rare Earths & Market Impact
SPX - the death cross is confirm
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ - Indecision Candle at the 20DMA, the Stochastic is curling down, and the death cross is confirmed.A hiccup is possible for tomorrow considering previous attempts to cross the blue line. But as long as price stays above $5,226 the bounce is still in progress.The loss of the 40 weekly average has proven to be a major signal anticipating a major correction. Since the signal has been more than confirmed, now it's worth watching the Average True Range, which has reached extreme overbought levels compared to bear market bottoms in 2008, 2018, and 2020. For 2022 it preceded a bear market rally starting in June of that year. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
SPX - the death cross is confirm
TSLA - Will it hold?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : $217 has proven to be a strong support during the last month. Will it hold? Most likely, and If price stays above $247 next week, a breakout to $279 is possible.$260 can bring some turbulence, but as of now, it looks like that resistance has flipped to support.Image $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ The initial euphoria following the tariff exemptions for smartphones, computers, and chips is fading. Futures have now halved yesterday's reaction.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here：Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enj
TSLA - Will it hold?
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