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2022-10-02
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2022-10-02
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The Federal Reserve gives a rare warning, the next "black swan" is approaching, what's going on?
Walden.
2022-09-27
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@胖虎福利:一臺家用機器人可能比一輛汽車更便宜？特斯拉2022 AI Day即將揭曉答案
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Compared with the high in January, the total market value of the S&P 500 has evaporated by about 10 trillion US dollars (about 71 trillion yuan). In the face of this tragic selling wave, U.S. stock bulls are falling into a desperate moment: retail investors fled frantically and spent an unprecedented amount of US $18 billion (about 128 billion yuan) to buy put options; Hedge funds' equity exposure has also fallen to an all-time low.</p><p><b>The Fed is getting nervous, too. On September 30, local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard warned that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the impact of its own policy actions on the global economy and financial system. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>It warned that the current credit pressure indicators in the United States are close to the critical point. If the Federal Reserve does not find a balance between controlling inflation and unexpected risks, a financial market crisis like that in the United Kingdom may break out in the United States.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that Britain, the \"eye of the storm\" in the European financial market, is about to face the next \"black swan\". On October 21, among the world's three major rating agencies, S&P,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>, will reassess the UK government's credit rating. Once the credit rating is downgraded, it will put great pressure on Britain's foreign debt.</p><p><b>The tragic September of US stocks</b></p><p>In the past September, U.S. stocks experienced a tragic decline.</p><p>On the last trading day of September, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell sharply again. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell below their June lows, with monthly declines of 9.3% and 8.8% respectively, both hitting records in March 2020. The largest monthly decline since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States was the worst September since 2002, and the Nasdaq index fell 10.5% in a single month.</p><p>In fact, throughout the third quarter, U.S. stocks were shrouded in the haze of a bear market. The S&P 500 index fell by 5.3% quarterly, which was the third consecutive quarter of decline, the longest quarterly consecutive decline since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>If the time period continues to be lengthened, since 2022, the cumulative decline of the S&P has reached 25%, and the decline has ranked third in history (since 1931). Compared with the record high in January 2022, the total market value of the S&P 500 The cumulative evaporation of approximately US $10 trillion (approximately RMB 71 trillion).</p><p>Under the continuous plunge, U.S. stock bulls are falling into a moment of despair. Even the most optimistic U.S. retail investors are on the flight, while spending record sums of money locking in protective options.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to the public data of the exchange, retail investors sold a net $2.9 billion in stocks in the previous week, more than four times the number of stocks sold at the market trough in mid-June, and the second largest weekly sell-off in the past five years.</p><p>In addition, data from Options Clearing Corp compiled by Sundial Capital Research showed that small capital groups in U.S. stocks spent an unprecedented $18 billion (approximately RMB 128 billion) to buy put options last week due to concerns about the upcoming market crash.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Tracking hedge funds have trimmed their equity exposure to an all-time low, increasing their short positions against ETFs for the 11th straight session. The cash level of fund managers is also close to historical highs, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market is getting stronger.</p><p><b>In the face of this tragic selling wave, the confidence of Wall Street's \"dead bulls\" has also begun to waver.</b></p><p>Known as the most determined bull on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase strategist Marko Kolanovic pessimistically emphasized that the risk of Fed policy mistakes and geopolitical escalation is increasing, putting the target level of U.S. stocks in 2022 at risk of downward adjustment.</p><p>What makes bulls even more desperate is that the pain of the bear market in the US stock market may not be over yet.</p><p>According to U.S. media statistics, in several rounds of bear markets in U.S. history, the average decline of U.S. stocks reached 39% within 20 months, which means that there is still a potential decline of 19% in U.S. stocks; The current bear market lasts for 9 months, less than 50% of the average duration of the past 14 bear markets.</p><p><b>Fed warns of financial risks</b></p><p>At present, the important question that investors in the U.S. stock market have to think about is when the Fed's tightening cycle will end.</p><p>Because, in the past six rounds of bear markets in U.S. stocks, all bottoms were formed when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. But Wall Street traders currently expect that Fed interest rates may not peak until April 2023.</p><p>The inflation data that has just been released is not optimistic either. Among them, the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve values most unexpectedly accelerated upward.</p><p>On September 30, the latest data disclosed by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 4.9% year-on-year in August, higher than the expected 4.7%. The previous value was 4.6% (revised up to 4.7%), the year-on-year growth rate reached the highest since May this year; In August, the core PCE price index increased by 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.5%. The previous value was 0.1% (revised down to 0%), and the month-on-month growth rate was still close to historical highs.</p><p>At the same time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard once again emphasized on September 30, local time, that actions to curb high inflation should not be withdrawn prematurely, and higher restrictive interest rates should be maintained for a period of time.</p><p>This also means that the Federal Reserve's rate hike storm will most likely continue, and when it will end in the future still depends on the inflation data of the United States. Investors now expect a 57% probability of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in November, according to the CME group Fed Watch tool.</p><p>But in the face of global financial market turmoil, the Federal Reserve is also beginning to get nervous. Most of brainard's speech on the 30th involved the financial stability risks that may be brought about by rapid rate hike by global central banks. It further stated that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the impact of its policy actions on the global economy and financial system.</p><p>Wall Street institutions are even more nervous. Bank of America warned in its latest report that the current credit pressure indicators in the United States are close to a critical point. If the Federal Reserve does not find a balance between controlling inflation and unexpected risks, the United States may have a financial crisis like that in the United Kingdom. market crisis.</p><p>Bank of America's high-yield bond strategy team believes that if the Credit Stress Indicator (CSI) reaches the \"critical zone\" above 75%, the situation will get out of control, and now it is time to pay attention to risk management. This means that at the next interest rate meeting, the Fed should slow down the pace of rate hike, and then pause so that the economy can fully adapt to all the extreme tightening policies that have been implemented.</p><p><b>Europe's next \"black swan\"</b></p><p><b>At present, Britain, the \"eye of the storm\" of European financial markets, is about to face the next \"black swan\".</b></p><p>On October 21st, Standard & Poor's and Moody's, among the world's three major rating agencies, will reassess the credit rating of the British government. If the financial situation continues to be tight, the UK's sovereign credit rating may be downgraded.</p><p>Once the credit rating is downgraded, it will put great pressure on the UK's foreign debt, and the outside world will face \"additional risks\" in providing debt financing to the UK, which may have an impact on the UK's economic prospects.</p><p>The market is very worried about the credit rating this time, because Standard & Poor's has taken the lead in issuing an \"alarm signal\". On September 30, local time, Standard & Poor's maintained the UK's AA/A-1 + sovereign rating, but lowered its rating outlook from \"stable\" to \"negative\".</p><p>Standard & Poor's said that after the UK announced the tax cut policy, the UK's fiscal deficit will increase and the risk of fiscal imbalance will rise.</p><p>Standard & Poor's estimates that if the new tax cuts continue to be implemented, the ratio of the British government's budget deficit to GDP will expand by 2.6 percentage points by 2025, which will make it difficult for the authorities to realize their ambition of reducing the ratio of public debt to national income.</p><p>Standard & Poor's believes that the British economy will shrink in the next few quarters, and GDP will decline by 0.5% next year.</p><p>At the same time, Moody's has labeled the largest tax reduction plan launched by the British government in 50 years as a \"negative\". Moody's believes this move will threaten Britain's credibility in the eyes of investors, but Moody's has yet to downgrade its outlook for the UK's rating to negative.</p><p>At present, Moody's's sovereign rating on the UK is Aa3 and Fitch's AA-, which are in the same grade, while Standard & Poor's credit rating on the UK is AA, one grade higher than Moody's and Fitch.</p><p><b>For Britain at present, it is already full of storms.</b></p><p>Previously, the radical tax reduction plan once triggered a major earthquake in the British capital market, the British Treasury Bond staged a \"big crash\", and the pound plummeted to a record low. In order to avoid a bigger crisis, the Bank of England had to rescue the market.</p><p>And British female Prime Minister Truss, who just took office, seems to be losing the support of most British people. On September 30, local time, a poll released by YouGov showed that among the nearly 5,000 Britons surveyed, about 51% believed that Truss should resign, and 54% believed that British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwarten should resign.</p><p>One of the important reasons for the sharp drop in support rate is that the new economic policies just introduced by the Truss government include the most radical tax cuts in 50 years, with an estimated total tax reduction of up to 45 billion pounds, and a large-scale energy support plan, which is expected to cost more than 100 billion pounds in two years.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Federal Reserve gives a rare warning, the next \"black swan\" is approaching, what's going on?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Federal Reserve gives a rare warning, the next \"black swan\" is approaching, what's going on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-02 07:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Wall Street's \"bulls\" are experiencing moments of despair.</p><p>U.S. stocks have just experienced a turbulent September, with the monthly declines of the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 9.3% and 8.8% respectively, the worst September since 2002; The S&P fell by 25% during the year, ranking third in history (since 1931). Compared with the high in January, the total market value of the S&P 500 has evaporated by about 10 trillion US dollars (about 71 trillion yuan). In the face of this tragic selling wave, U.S. stock bulls are falling into a desperate moment: retail investors fled frantically and spent an unprecedented amount of US $18 billion (about 128 billion yuan) to buy put options; Hedge funds' equity exposure has also fallen to an all-time low.</p><p><b>The Fed is getting nervous, too. On September 30, local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard warned that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the impact of its own policy actions on the global economy and financial system. In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>It warned that the current credit pressure indicators in the United States are close to the critical point. If the Federal Reserve does not find a balance between controlling inflation and unexpected risks, a financial market crisis like that in the United Kingdom may break out in the United States.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that Britain, the \"eye of the storm\" in the European financial market, is about to face the next \"black swan\". On October 21, among the world's three major rating agencies, S&P,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>, will reassess the UK government's credit rating. Once the credit rating is downgraded, it will put great pressure on Britain's foreign debt.</p><p><b>The tragic September of US stocks</b></p><p>In the past September, U.S. stocks experienced a tragic decline.</p><p>On the last trading day of September, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell sharply again. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell below their June lows, with monthly declines of 9.3% and 8.8% respectively, both hitting records in March 2020. The largest monthly decline since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States was the worst September since 2002, and the Nasdaq index fell 10.5% in a single month.</p><p>In fact, throughout the third quarter, U.S. stocks were shrouded in the haze of a bear market. The S&P 500 index fell by 5.3% quarterly, which was the third consecutive quarter of decline, the longest quarterly consecutive decline since the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>If the time period continues to be lengthened, since 2022, the cumulative decline of the S&P has reached 25%, and the decline has ranked third in history (since 1931). Compared with the record high in January 2022, the total market value of the S&P 500 The cumulative evaporation of approximately US $10 trillion (approximately RMB 71 trillion).</p><p>Under the continuous plunge, U.S. stock bulls are falling into a moment of despair. Even the most optimistic U.S. retail investors are on the flight, while spending record sums of money locking in protective options.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to the public data of the exchange, retail investors sold a net $2.9 billion in stocks in the previous week, more than four times the number of stocks sold at the market trough in mid-June, and the second largest weekly sell-off in the past five years.</p><p>In addition, data from Options Clearing Corp compiled by Sundial Capital Research showed that small capital groups in U.S. stocks spent an unprecedented $18 billion (approximately RMB 128 billion) to buy put options last week due to concerns about the upcoming market crash.</p><p>At the same time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Tracking hedge funds have trimmed their equity exposure to an all-time low, increasing their short positions against ETFs for the 11th straight session. The cash level of fund managers is also close to historical highs, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market is getting stronger.</p><p><b>In the face of this tragic selling wave, the confidence of Wall Street's \"dead bulls\" has also begun to waver.</b></p><p>Known as the most determined bull on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase strategist Marko Kolanovic pessimistically emphasized that the risk of Fed policy mistakes and geopolitical escalation is increasing, putting the target level of U.S. stocks in 2022 at risk of downward adjustment.</p><p>What makes bulls even more desperate is that the pain of the bear market in the US stock market may not be over yet.</p><p>According to U.S. media statistics, in several rounds of bear markets in U.S. history, the average decline of U.S. stocks reached 39% within 20 months, which means that there is still a potential decline of 19% in U.S. stocks; The current bear market lasts for 9 months, less than 50% of the average duration of the past 14 bear markets.</p><p><b>Fed warns of financial risks</b></p><p>At present, the important question that investors in the U.S. stock market have to think about is when the Fed's tightening cycle will end.</p><p>Because, in the past six rounds of bear markets in U.S. stocks, all bottoms were formed when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. But Wall Street traders currently expect that Fed interest rates may not peak until April 2023.</p><p>The inflation data that has just been released is not optimistic either. Among them, the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve values most unexpectedly accelerated upward.</p><p>On September 30, the latest data disclosed by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 4.9% year-on-year in August, higher than the expected 4.7%. The previous value was 4.6% (revised up to 4.7%), the year-on-year growth rate reached the highest since May this year; In August, the core PCE price index increased by 0.6% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.5%. The previous value was 0.1% (revised down to 0%), and the month-on-month growth rate was still close to historical highs.</p><p>At the same time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard once again emphasized on September 30, local time, that actions to curb high inflation should not be withdrawn prematurely, and higher restrictive interest rates should be maintained for a period of time.</p><p>This also means that the Federal Reserve's rate hike storm will most likely continue, and when it will end in the future still depends on the inflation data of the United States. Investors now expect a 57% probability of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in November, according to the CME group Fed Watch tool.</p><p>But in the face of global financial market turmoil, the Federal Reserve is also beginning to get nervous. Most of brainard's speech on the 30th involved the financial stability risks that may be brought about by rapid rate hike by global central banks. It further stated that the Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the impact of its policy actions on the global economy and financial system.</p><p>Wall Street institutions are even more nervous. Bank of America warned in its latest report that the current credit pressure indicators in the United States are close to a critical point. If the Federal Reserve does not find a balance between controlling inflation and unexpected risks, the United States may have a financial crisis like that in the United Kingdom. market crisis.</p><p>Bank of America's high-yield bond strategy team believes that if the Credit Stress Indicator (CSI) reaches the \"critical zone\" above 75%, the situation will get out of control, and now it is time to pay attention to risk management. This means that at the next interest rate meeting, the Fed should slow down the pace of rate hike, and then pause so that the economy can fully adapt to all the extreme tightening policies that have been implemented.</p><p><b>Europe's next \"black swan\"</b></p><p><b>At present, Britain, the \"eye of the storm\" of European financial markets, is about to face the next \"black swan\".</b></p><p>On October 21st, Standard & Poor's and Moody's, among the world's three major rating agencies, will reassess the credit rating of the British government. If the financial situation continues to be tight, the UK's sovereign credit rating may be downgraded.</p><p>Once the credit rating is downgraded, it will put great pressure on the UK's foreign debt, and the outside world will face \"additional risks\" in providing debt financing to the UK, which may have an impact on the UK's economic prospects.</p><p>The market is very worried about the credit rating this time, because Standard & Poor's has taken the lead in issuing an \"alarm signal\". On September 30, local time, Standard & Poor's maintained the UK's AA/A-1 + sovereign rating, but lowered its rating outlook from \"stable\" to \"negative\".</p><p>Standard & Poor's said that after the UK announced the tax cut policy, the UK's fiscal deficit will increase and the risk of fiscal imbalance will rise.</p><p>Standard & Poor's estimates that if the new tax cuts continue to be implemented, the ratio of the British government's budget deficit to GDP will expand by 2.6 percentage points by 2025, which will make it difficult for the authorities to realize their ambition of reducing the ratio of public debt to national income.</p><p>Standard & Poor's believes that the British economy will shrink in the next few quarters, and GDP will decline by 0.5% next year.</p><p>At the same time, Moody's has labeled the largest tax reduction plan launched by the British government in 50 years as a \"negative\". Moody's believes this move will threaten Britain's credibility in the eyes of investors, but Moody's has yet to downgrade its outlook for the UK's rating to negative.</p><p>At present, Moody's's sovereign rating on the UK is Aa3 and Fitch's AA-, which are in the same grade, while Standard & Poor's credit rating on the UK is AA, one grade higher than Moody's and Fitch.</p><p><b>For Britain at present, it is already full of storms.</b></p><p>Previously, the radical tax reduction plan once triggered a major earthquake in the British capital market, the British Treasury Bond staged a \"big crash\", and the pound plummeted to a record low. In order to avoid a bigger crisis, the Bank of England had to rescue the market.</p><p>And British female Prime Minister Truss, who just took office, seems to be losing the support of most British people. On September 30, local time, a poll released by YouGov showed that among the nearly 5,000 Britons surveyed, about 51% believed that Truss should resign, and 54% believed that British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwarten should resign.</p><p>One of the important reasons for the sharp drop in support rate is that the new economic policies just introduced by the Truss government include the most radical tax cuts in 50 years, with an estimated total tax reduction of up to 45 billion pounds, and a large-scale energy support plan, which is expected to cost more than 100 billion pounds in two years.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153575084","content_text":"华尔街的“多头”正经历绝望时刻。美股刚刚经历了一个动荡的9月，其中标普500指数、道指的月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%，是2002年以来最惨的9月；标普年内跌幅达25%，跌幅已经排到了史上第三（1931年以来），相比1月的高位，标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元（约合人民币71万亿）。面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮，美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻：散户投资者疯狂出逃，并史无前例地花费了180亿美元（约合人民币1280亿元）买入看跌期权；对冲基金的股票敞口也降至历史最低。美联储也开始紧张。当地时间9月30日，美联储副主席布雷纳德警告称，美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。另外，美国银行警告称，当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点，如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点，美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。值得警惕的是，欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”英国，即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。10月21日，全球三大评级机构中的标普、穆迪，将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。一旦信用评级遭下调，将对英国的外债形成巨大压力。美股的惨烈9月刚刚过去的9月，美股经历了惨烈一跌。9月的最后一个交易日，美股三大指数再度集体重挫，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数双双跌破6月低点，单月跌幅分别达9.3%、8.8%，均创下2020年3月美国疫情暴发以来的最大月度跌幅，更是2002年以来最惨的9月，而纳斯达克指数单月跌幅更是达10.5%。其实，整个第三季度，美股都笼罩在熊市阴霾之下，标普500指数季度跌幅达5.3%，为连续三个季度下滑，这是自2008 年金融危机以来最长的季度连跌。若将时间周期继续拉长，2022年以来，标普累计跌幅已达到25%，跌幅已经排到史上第三（1931年以来），相比2022年1月的纪录高位，标普500的总市值累计蒸发约10万亿美元（约合人民币71万亿元）。连续的暴跌之下，美股多头正在陷入绝望时刻。即使是最乐观的美国散户投资者也开始出逃，同时花费创纪录的资金锁定保护性期权。据摩根大通根据交易所公开数据测算，散户投资者在此前一周净抛售29亿美元股票，超过了6月中旬市场低谷的卖出股票数量的4倍，是过去五年以来的第二大单周抛售量。此外，Sundial Capital Research编制的Options Clearing Corp的数据显示，由于对即将到来的市场崩盘忧心忡忡，美股的小资金群体上周史无前例地花费了180亿美元（约合人民币1280亿元）买入看跌期权。与此同时，摩根士丹利追踪的对冲基金已将股票敞口削减至历史最低水平，连续第11个交易日增加针对ETF的空头头寸。基金经理的现金水平也接近历史高位，市场观望情绪愈发强烈。面对这一轮惨烈的抛售潮，华尔街的“死多头”的信心也开始动摇。号称华尔街最坚定的多头，摩根大通的策略分析师Marko Kolanovic悲观地强调，美联储政策失误和地缘政治升级的风险正在增加，使得2022年美股目标位面临下调风险。而让多头更绝望的是，美股熊市的痛苦可能还未结束。据美国媒体统计，在美国历史的几轮熊市中，20个月内美股平均跌幅达到39%，这意味着，当前美股仍存在19%的潜在下跌空间；而当前这轮熊市持续的时间为9个月，不足过去14轮熊市平均持续时间的50%。美联储警告金融风险当前，美股市场的投资者不得不思考的重要问题是，美联储的紧缩周期何时才会结束。因为，美股过去的6轮熊市中，所有的底部都是美联储降息时形成的。但目前华尔街交易员们预计，在2023年4月之前，美联储利率可能不会见顶。而刚刚出炉的通胀数据，也不容乐观，其中美联储最重视的通胀指标意外加速上行。9月30日，美国商务部披露的最新数据显示，美国核心PCE物价指数（剔除食品和能源价格）8月同比增长4.9%，高于预期的4.7%，前值为4.6%（上修至4.7%），同比增速创今年5月以来最高纪录；8月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.6%，高于预期的0.5%，前值0.1%（下修至0%），环比增速仍接近历史高位。同时，美联储副主席布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）于当地时间9月30日再次强调称，不应过早撤除遏制高通胀的行动，要将较高的限制性利率保持一段时间。这也意味着，美联储的加息风暴大概率仍将继续，未来何时结束，仍取决于美国的通胀数据。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，投资者目前预计美联储11月加息75个基点的概率为57%。但面对全球金融市场动荡，美联储也开始紧张。布雷纳德30日的讲话大部分内容都涉及到，全球央行迅速加息可能带来的金融稳定风险。其进一步表示，美联储正在密切关注自身政策行动对全球经济和金融系统的影响。华尔街机构则更为紧张，美国银行在最新的报告中警告称，当前美国的信用压力指标已经接近临界点，如果美联储再不从控制通胀和意外风险找准平衡点，美国有可能爆发英国那样的金融市场危机。美国银行的高收益债券策略团队认为，如果信用压力指标（CSI）达到75%以上的“临界区”，局面将变得失控，现在已经到了重视风险管理的时候。这意味着，在下一次议息会议上，美联储应当放缓加息步伐，之后应该暂停，以使经济能够完全适应已经实施的所有极端紧缩政策。欧洲的下一只“黑天鹅”当前，欧洲金融市场的“风暴眼”——英国，即将面临下一只“黑天鹅”。10月21日，全球三大评级机构中的标普、穆迪，将重新评估英国政府的信用评级。若财政状况持续紧张，英国主权信用评级可能遭到下调。而一旦信用评级遭下调，将对英国的外债形成巨大压力，外界向英国提供债务融资将面临“额外风险”，或将对英国经济前景造成冲击。市场对这一次的信用评级非常担忧，因为标普已经率先发出了“警报信号”。当地时间9月30日，标普维持英国AA/A-1+主权评级，但将评级展望由“稳定”下调为“负面”。标普表示，英国公布减税政策后，英国财政赤字将增加，财政失衡的风险上升。标普估算，如果新减税政策继续实施，到2025年英国政府预算赤字与GDP的占比将扩大2.6个百分点，这将使当局很难实现降低公共债务占国民收入比例的雄心。标普认为，英国经济将在未来几个季度陷入萎缩，明年GDP将下滑0.5%。同时，穆迪已经将英国政府推出的50年来最大规模减税计划打上了“负面”标签。穆迪认为，这一举措将威胁到英国在投资者心目中的信誉，但穆迪尚未将英国评级展望下调为负面。目前，穆迪对英国的主权评级为Aa3，惠誉是AA-，这二者为同一档，而标普对英国的信用评级为AA，比穆迪和惠誉高一档。对于当前的英国而言，已是山雨欲来风满楼。此前，激进的减税计划一度引发英国资本市场大地震，英国国债上演“大崩盘”，英镑暴跌刷新历史新低。为了避免更大的危机，英国央行不得不出手救市。而刚上任不久的英国女首相特拉斯似乎正在失去大多数英国民众的支持。当地时间9月30日，英国舆观调查公司(YouGov)公布的民调显示，在接受调查的近5000名英国人中，约51%的人认为，特拉斯应该辞职，54%的人认为，英国财政大臣克沃滕应该辞职。支持率大跌的重要原因之一便是，特拉斯政府刚刚出台的经济新政，其中包括，50年来最激进的减税政策，预计减税总额高达450亿英镑，以及大规模的能源支持计划，预计将在两年内花费超过1000亿英镑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":668099880,"gmtCreate":1664283926741,"gmtModify":1676537424911,"author":{"id":"4110531690656330","authorId":"4110531690656330","name":"Walden.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9305a33ceded43e6a928eb1b0b7616d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4110531690656330","idStr":"4110531690656330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/668099880","repostId":"661483449","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":661483449,"gmtCreate":1664184790755,"gmtModify":1676537405312,"author":{"id":"3527667568191018","authorId":"3527667568191018","name":"胖虎福利","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/733bbf790057cc91c5e0b1aa5569977c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667568191018","idStr":"3527667568191018"},"themes":[],"title":"一臺家用機器人可能比一輛汽車更便宜？特斯拉2022 AI Day即將揭曉答案","htmlText":"有個機器人管家爲你做早餐、搬行李、開車甚至照顧父母是什麼體驗？科幻電影般的想象，可能很快就能實現！北美時間2022年9月30日（預計北京時間10月1日），特斯拉2022 AI Day活動將於加州帕羅奧圖舉行，屆時，將科幻照進現實的Tesla Bot預計首次亮相，帶動科技發展前往下一個時代。此外，特斯拉自動駕駛技術和Dojo超級計算機的最新進展也或將於當天公佈，令無數車迷、科技控和特粉們翹首以盼。回顧去年8月20日的AI Day活動，Tesla Bot的發佈可謂一大重磅彩蛋。特斯拉稱其高1.72米，重56.6千克，臉上的屏幕可顯示信息，擁有人類水平的雙手，並有力反饋感應，以實現平衡和敏捷的動作。僅僅一年後，特斯拉就將把這個彩蛋變爲現實，讓人感嘆其高效率的同時萌生無限期待。前不久，在發表於《中國網信》雜誌的文章中，馬斯克寫道：“特斯拉機器人最初的定位是替代人們從事重複枯燥、具有危險性的工作。但遠景目標是讓其服務於千家萬戶，比如做飯、修剪草坪、照顧老人等。”“特斯拉機器人的身高體重接近一位成年人，可搬運或手提重物，還能小步快走，它臉上的屏幕是與人溝通的交互界面，”馬斯克表示，“你或許會好奇，我們爲什麼要設計這個有腿的機器人？因爲人類社會是基於擁有兩條手臂和十個手指的雙足人形的互動而形成的。因此，如果我們想讓機器人適應環境並能做人類所做之事，他就得擁有與人類大致相同的尺寸、形狀和能力。”馬斯克稱：“此後，隨着生產規模擴大和成本下降，人形機器人的實用性將逐年提升。在未來，一臺家用機器人可能比一輛汽車更便宜。也許在不到十年的時間裏，人們就可以給父母買一個機器人作爲生日禮物了。”只要關注智能駕駛，就一定對去年特斯拉純視覺方案FSD的進展、神經網絡自動駕駛訓練、D1芯片、Dojo超級計算機等重磅信息有着深刻印象，如今，特斯拉的這些成就依然保持在世界科技前沿。爲實現人工智能訓練的超高算力，同","listText":"有個機器人管家爲你做早餐、搬行李、開車甚至照顧父母是什麼體驗？科幻電影般的想象，可能很快就能實現！北美時間2022年9月30日（預計北京時間10月1日），特斯拉2022 AI Day活動將於加州帕羅奧圖舉行，屆時，將科幻照進現實的Tesla Bot預計首次亮相，帶動科技發展前往下一個時代。此外，特斯拉自動駕駛技術和Dojo超級計算機的最新進展也或將於當天公佈，令無數車迷、科技控和特粉們翹首以盼。回顧去年8月20日的AI Day活動，Tesla Bot的發佈可謂一大重磅彩蛋。特斯拉稱其高1.72米，重56.6千克，臉上的屏幕可顯示信息，擁有人類水平的雙手，並有力反饋感應，以實現平衡和敏捷的動作。僅僅一年後，特斯拉就將把這個彩蛋變爲現實，讓人感嘆其高效率的同時萌生無限期待。前不久，在發表於《中國網信》雜誌的文章中，馬斯克寫道：“特斯拉機器人最初的定位是替代人們從事重複枯燥、具有危險性的工作。但遠景目標是讓其服務於千家萬戶，比如做飯、修剪草坪、照顧老人等。”“特斯拉機器人的身高體重接近一位成年人，可搬運或手提重物，還能小步快走，它臉上的屏幕是與人溝通的交互界面，”馬斯克表示，“你或許會好奇，我們爲什麼要設計這個有腿的機器人？因爲人類社會是基於擁有兩條手臂和十個手指的雙足人形的互動而形成的。因此，如果我們想讓機器人適應環境並能做人類所做之事，他就得擁有與人類大致相同的尺寸、形狀和能力。”馬斯克稱：“此後，隨着生產規模擴大和成本下降，人形機器人的實用性將逐年提升。在未來，一臺家用機器人可能比一輛汽車更便宜。也許在不到十年的時間裏，人們就可以給父母買一個機器人作爲生日禮物了。”只要關注智能駕駛，就一定對去年特斯拉純視覺方案FSD的進展、神經網絡自動駕駛訓練、D1芯片、Dojo超級計算機等重磅信息有着深刻印象，如今，特斯拉的這些成就依然保持在世界科技前沿。爲實現人工智能訓練的超高算力，同","text":"有個機器人管家爲你做早餐、搬行李、開車甚至照顧父母是什麼體驗？科幻電影般的想象，可能很快就能實現！北美時間2022年9月30日（預計北京時間10月1日），特斯拉2022 AI Day活動將於加州帕羅奧圖舉行，屆時，將科幻照進現實的Tesla Bot預計首次亮相，帶動科技發展前往下一個時代。此外，特斯拉自動駕駛技術和Dojo超級計算機的最新進展也或將於當天公佈，令無數車迷、科技控和特粉們翹首以盼。回顧去年8月20日的AI Day活動，Tesla Bot的發佈可謂一大重磅彩蛋。特斯拉稱其高1.72米，重56.6千克，臉上的屏幕可顯示信息，擁有人類水平的雙手，並有力反饋感應，以實現平衡和敏捷的動作。僅僅一年後，特斯拉就將把這個彩蛋變爲現實，讓人感嘆其高效率的同時萌生無限期待。前不久，在發表於《中國網信》雜誌的文章中，馬斯克寫道：“特斯拉機器人最初的定位是替代人們從事重複枯燥、具有危險性的工作。但遠景目標是讓其服務於千家萬戶，比如做飯、修剪草坪、照顧老人等。”“特斯拉機器人的身高體重接近一位成年人，可搬運或手提重物，還能小步快走，它臉上的屏幕是與人溝通的交互界面，”馬斯克表示，“你或許會好奇，我們爲什麼要設計這個有腿的機器人？因爲人類社會是基於擁有兩條手臂和十個手指的雙足人形的互動而形成的。因此，如果我們想讓機器人適應環境並能做人類所做之事，他就得擁有與人類大致相同的尺寸、形狀和能力。”馬斯克稱：“此後，隨着生產規模擴大和成本下降，人形機器人的實用性將逐年提升。在未來，一臺家用機器人可能比一輛汽車更便宜。也許在不到十年的時間裏，人們就可以給父母買一個機器人作爲生日禮物了。”只要關注智能駕駛，就一定對去年特斯拉純視覺方案FSD的進展、神經網絡自動駕駛訓練、D1芯片、Dojo超級計算機等重磅信息有着深刻印象，如今，特斯拉的這些成就依然保持在世界科技前沿。爲實現人工智能訓練的超高算力，同","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9327ca5b98a1761a3de3864f295c901","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/058669d709b4bda6ca11888f1fe825bf","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67256fa209e44b7ae28ffda3f04db43a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/661483449","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
