1.Given that the US Stock market has just put in a "Valuation-Extreme Inflection Point" --this chart has now taken on a high level of significanceWorth noting: "Heading into market peaks the ride can be deceptively smooth and rewarding, but perversely when things turn the pace of decline is most rapid during the initial phase, and you might not be able to just gradually scale out." $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Gold's strength is becoming its weakness in this type of market environment...First: it got to expensive levels as this chart from our monthly pack shows.Second (and more importantly): in liquidation events like this, people tend to sell the thing that went up the most

1.Stock/Bond ratio rolling over after a very strong runIt also comes following the stocks vs bonds relative value indicator reaching 25-year highs, and a long way to go before it gets cheap... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Seeing a lot of whitepapers and thought leadoorship on why small caps are structurally bad (wonder if they wrote the same kind of things back in the 80's and late-90's)Whether or not the trend on this chart persists, there sure seems to be a cycle. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image3.Gold is breaking out vs the 60/40 portfolioThanks in part to that, investor allocations to gold are starting to drift higherSign of

1.One for the Bulls...Historically April has tended to be a good month for Global Equities(albeit before the May-Oct doldrums)Different this time?Image2.Take time to study this image...We're basically sitting right in the middle of that red oval right now.The evidence is compelling, growing, and basically it all looks like the market tides are going out.Image3.After a string of outflows, retail traders are starting to dip their toes back into Silver ETFsThat previous round of profit-taking could well be a clearing event for a move higher in the second-place precious metal... $Silver - main 2505(SImain)$ ImageOpen a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US

1."Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average"As a trend indicator, a crossover below the 200dma is intuitively a bad thing in terms of the price trendBut another aspect is historically volatility has been materially higher below $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$Image2.Credit Spread CyclesLow spreads are not necessarily a bad thing, especially if they are falling from high levels under improving conditions.Rising spreads OTOH are almost always bad (unless and until they reach a climax and turn down)Image3.Gold Market Strategy Dashboard-looking overvalued-sentiment heating up-but strong price momentum-(and monetary tailwinds) $Gold -

1.Investors hate bonds these days, and who can blame them after the horrendous experience of the past few years...But here's one reason to Love Bonds.Recessions often see bonds putting in stock-like returns, and at a time when investors need it the most!Image2.One of the many reasons we're seeing higher Gold $Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ prices is the cost of production to get gold out of the ground is going up over time too (or in Bitcoin-parlance, the difficulty is rising! 😅 )Image3.European High Yield Credit SpreadsConfidence or Complacency?Image Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Other helpful links

The thing I emphasized in the ChartStorm was the Changing Tides… consider the following data points and observations:Wall Street analyst Earnings expectations are rolling over from ebullient levels (see today’s chart).Investor Sentiment is rolling over from record highs (e.g. Euphoriameter).Consumer Confidence in the Stockmarket is likewise slumping from a record high back in November.Investor portfolio allocations to stocks are peaking at record high levels.Margin Debt expansion has peaked and rolled over from warning levels.Valuations are moving lower from previous extreme expensive levels (and are still a long way from becoming cheap).The stock/bond ratio is rolling over from stretched levels (and a very low forward-looking equity risk premium); likewise bond yields are rolling over fro

1.What you see here in this chart is another bull market meeting its maker.The first bull from 2020 to late-2021 was fueled by stimulus; a global tidal wave of liquidityThe second bull from late-2022 was fueled by hopes and dreamslet's hope it doesn't turn into a nightmare... 😵‍💫 $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Image2.Belief is a strong thing--almost no one sees it coming when recession hits and the market rolls over.It's why timing is so hard (hard but possible), and diversification is so important (but really: smart diversification).Image3.AUM in Gold ETFs is surging 📈 🚀 A big part of this is the gold price, and in fact retail investors have very low allocations to gold.But this is starting to change

1.US Assets had a Golden DecadeIt started from a generational buying opportunity in 2009 (nothing has come close since)And now we find things generationally risky (but global assets look cheap)It's time to discard your biases and have a big rethink $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.The US dollar has peaked (and it makes fundamental sense: if the US goes through a growth + confidence shock and rest of world plods along… ultimately that’s what exchange rates reflect; relative macro strength) Image3.I don't think I've ever been so depressed to see a stock chart doing so well -- great for investors, great for the military industrial complex, not so great for humanity.I know there are

1.Passive ActivistsThe rise of passive investing has lead to a weird perversion of corporate governance -- who gets the vote? Are we happy leaving key shareholder decisions to a nameless faceless corporate with hidden agendas?Things are changing here, but it highlights some unintended consequences $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Relative Value TrinityIt looks like we have turned the corner on this global equity mega-theme — especially for global vs US stocks...We are still so early on this onethis theme will be measured in years not monthsImage3.Defensives have gained ground in relative performance terms through the correction, and still look extremely compelling as a contraria

1.No Equity Risk Premium, no problem?(albeit to be fair the marginal buyer at the moment probably doesn't even know what an ERP is!)Image2.The best vs the worst of Global EquitiesKinda looks like a turning point... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$Image3."bull markets grow on doubt and wither once hype takes hold..."Image4.No Credit Risk PremiumUS assets are priced for perfection, but we are in an imperfect world.Sometimes very low credit spreads represents confidence, other times it represents complacency.I

1."in the long-run stocks go up"Yep.But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get up. Here's some horrific examples.Image2.Labor markets are tightIndustrial capacity is looseWhichever one moves first and moves most will be a big tell on whether we get inflation resurgence (industrial revival) or recession (job market bust).Image3.Cash Rates DownBond Yields UpThis is entirely to be expected and reflects a couple of super critical macro themes this year.Image4.Australian Stock/Bond Ratio-rolling over from stretched levels-Aus govt bonds are cheap--this may run further...Image

1.Big Bulls and Big BearsHere's just a few of many examples where big bull markets were followed by large and multi-year bears.Any candidates for this rn?Image2.US Tech SupremacySometimes exponential curves stop exponentialing...Image3. US consumer confidence in the Stockmarket plunges 🚨 Massive abrupt change of minds here.I always say the reason you want to study sentiment and pay attention when market indicators like these get to extremes is because it represents a lot of minds that can change if the facts/narrative changes...Image4.Recession or Resurgence in 2025?Why not both? $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$

Great Gold RalliesCharlie Morris of ByteTree points out: “As gold breaks $3,000 for the first time, some investors are getting the jitters. The price has nearly trebled since the low in late 2015, delivering a solid 12% per year since. Trebled sounds like a lot, whereas 12% p.a. doesn’t. The gold move is tame compared to great moves of the past.“ Room to run? $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Reserves DiversificationMacroAlf highlights what many of us already knew: “Central Banks are slowly but surely diversifying away from the US Dollar into Gold.“ But what I find interesting about the chart is how (and note the 2 different axes) gold as a % of global FX reserves now exceeds that of EUR holdings.ImageSilver SeasonJay Kaeppel of SentimenTrader points

1.Despite the strong performance by gold, there has been a long-standing stalemate between Gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ vs Stocks $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ...That stalemate looks set to break, and break big --- when it comes to chart patterns, the bigger the space, the bigger the break.Image2.For the longest time European equities have struggled to overcome the hurdle of inflation and lagged well behind their US counterpartsBut that is starting to changeImage3.Gold Nuggest Digest-gold vs stocks-silver price trend-China gold buying-breaking thousands-USD gold buying powerImageImageImageImage

1.Global Inflation rates are heading higher againIs this going to be a problem?Image2.What we are seeing with Europe vs US stockmarket rotation right now is a confirmation of a key rule in markets...>> extremes don't last-they represent pressure building up-(and they can unwind very fast)-most don't see it coming $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Image3.Precious Metal Procession...-first gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ soared-now silver

1.No good deed goes unpunishedThe meteoric performance of US vs European equities more than accounted for all of the good things we know about the US and the bad of Europe (and then some) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Image2.US Semiconductors Market Cap weightBubble?or 'bout right?Tech Stock outlook: $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Image3.Gold Multi-Asset views-first gold gained vs cash-then it started smashing bonds-and now it's turning up vs stocksWe could be o