We've become accustomed to markets just trending and going up over time, but there are plenty of examples across history and geographies of markets that just range. This 25-year period of time in Japan was one for market timers and not long-term trend followers. (...albeit there are clear trends on shorter frames within this period) If you missed the 10 Worst days in the market, your returns would be materially better than the index. So, should we therefore attempt to time the market? Most finfluencers only tell you about the red line, so what is the intellectually honest approach here?? Adjusted for market movements, margin debt is still expanding at a rapid pace. Yes this is a warning sign.

Another week, another new all-time high in long-term average expected earnings growth... Have Wall Street analysts lost the plot or are we really heading into a period of earnings hyperinflation? $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ p.s. this indicator has not had a good run when things get heated like this... basically a contrarian sentiment indicator! On the other side of the AI boom we will probably see the blue line go down and the black line go up... (few understand or expect this) Tech Sector capex is cro

Market Cap Weights -Mega Caps are bigger than usual -Large Caps are at a record low -SMID are smaller than usual We've seen huge shifts in cap weights across size cohorts --majorly distorted market, big moves like this rarely last long and are often the sign of a boom/bubble ready for bust. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Globalization of the US Stockmarket ...if you think about it, more and more offshore investors buying into US listed companies just as US listed companies are making more and more of their money from offshore. 🤔 Bond yields have been caught in a macro stalemate of resurgence risk vs r

Markets continue to price in stronger global growth, but history reminds investors that leadership stocks often endure steep drawdowns while recession risks can quickly shift the balance back toward bonds. Here are three key macro themes shaping the current investment landscape. 1.Biggest Winners’ Greatest Losses The most interesting aspect of this table is how massive the drawdowns (periods where the stock price declined from its peak) are for some of the best stocks… Not only do you have to pick the right stock, but you have to be able to hold-on and navigate through sometimes catastrophic declines in your portfolio through the process. 2.Global Equities are pricing a much higher PMI as global growth reaccelerates. Are boom times ahead? (or does the red line catch-down) 3.Recessions hurt

The bull market remains intact, driven by AI optimism, strong earnings expectations, and rapidly improving sentiment. However, with mega-cap valuations becoming increasingly stretched and investors once again pricing in perfection, the line between sustainable growth and speculative excess is beginning to blur. 1.US Stockmarket Valuations -Mega Caps= Very Expensive -Large Caps = Expensive -SMID Caps = Cheap 👀 🧐 🤔 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 2.Stocks are an Anticipatory Asset. Investors buy and sell bas

Lower effective tax rates have quietly become one of the biggest drivers of S&P 500 earnings growth, helping U.S. equities maintain a structural advantage over international markets. At the same time, earnings forecasts are surging, investor optimism is accelerating, and margin debt is once again approaching levels historically associated with major market peaks. 1.The effective tax rate of S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies has been a tailwind for earnings growth as it has consistently fallen over the years. It's also a competitive advantage that US stocks have over their global peers as EM + DM ex-US effective tax rates remain materially higher. 2.Long-Term earnings growth estimates have Exploded 💥 🚀 There's likely some truth in here,

This week’s chart is one for the bulls. It shows the MSCI ACWI (All Countries World Index) aka Global Equities in the black line, and 50-day moving average breadth in the red (i.e. what percentage of countries are trading above their 50-day moving average). Breadth indicators like this tell you a couple of things. First, they give you an early heads up on global developments as the impact spreads across countries. Second, for a shorter moving average timeframe like 50-days, it operates as an oscillator. In other words, it gives you overbought/oversold signals. In traditional market analysis a true overbought signal is when an oscillator like this goes to an extreme high —and then rolls over. That second part is key. The reason is you can get an overbought market that stays overbought and g

1.SPXEW vs $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ The equal-weighted S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is pushing higher, and the Nasdaq 100 is stuck in consolidation mode (as tech is in a bit of a stalemate; awaiting cue on next steps). Basically, the bullish rotation theme remains in play [i.e. the rest of the market is finally having its day in the sun as tech takes a back seat]. 2.Global Tech vs US Tech Similarly, the chart below shows how rest-of-world tech continues to push higher (new highs last week), while US tech pretty much looks to be in a downtrend at this point. The divergence here and above still has a bullish/constructive hue to it in that you have the rest of the market + global looking good, doing well in absolu

1. Market Cap Weight As noted above, defensives’ market cap weight reached an all-time low last year, since then they have ticked up as tech has ticked down off record highs. Again, this tells us about the state of the market cycle (note where previous extremes were, and how fleeting they ended up being — and how they ultimately resolved). But it also tells us important investment strategy takeaways such as how passive index investors are now heavily exposed to tech and on the contrary, also have historically low exposure to the diversifying and risk-dampening attributes of defensives. So this is a timely prompt to consider both the big picture macro-market outlook, but also the pragmatic implications for portfolio strategy (e.g. is this the right sector mix for equity exposure? should you

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Probably the most Unthinkable chart you can imagine... US tech stocks have peaked and are losing ground vs global tech stocks. Surely the US is not about to lose its Global Tech Leadership status?? But these things do go in cycles, even if you have big conviction on the very real fundamental story, you can't ignore macro-market-financial cycles, and the cycle is looking quite tenuous... The big issue is Tech Stocks have peaked, are on technically shaky ground ---AND this is coming from a starting point of stretched Valuations.

Tech Sector Credit Risk! 👀 It was all fun and games with AI hype when it was just equity markets, but now that credit markets are involved it doesn't seem so fun anymore… $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ Higher for Longer risk... It seems like in lieu of a deflationary recession the path of least resistance for bond yields is higher (for longer). If that happens slowly and smoothly then it's probably no issue. But there are some risks if the path becomes more violent sharp... Emerging Markets risk pricing sentiment. Confidence vs Complacency?

1.Tech & Tech $The Technology Select Sector SPDR Premium Income Fund(XLKI)$ related sectors' Capex has gone from around 25% to 50% of total S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex over the past decade.Boom, bubble, or new paradigm? 2.Black line playing catch-up...Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ firmly outperforming virtually every other asset ---what's the end-game here?? 3.Gold is overvalued, and so are tech stocks $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

1.Commercial Real Estate: big reset.In real inflation-adjusted terms, the CRE downturn has been substantial (-30%) and drawn-out (almost 4 years since peak to initial trough). Some might say that’s “enough”. (…downturn done?) 2.One of the biggest themes in markets last year was the Global Equities catch-up trade.We saw major upward re-rating of valuations across developed, emerging, and frontier markets.And there is still plenty of room to run... For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out more here.Compl

1.Surging semiconductors $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : the big beneficiary of the AI hype bubble has been semiconductor stocks – with that sector’s market cap weight far eclipsing levels seen during the dot com boom. Is it the new normal, or just another cycle of boom and b...? 2. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Surveyed Sentiment: summing the various surveys, sentiment is getting fairly bullish. This is not necessarily an impending bearish signal as it reflects the bullish momentum underway, and I would highlight that sentiment generally works better at picking bottoms than tops. But it does got to show that most minds are made-up… and if the right(/wrong) thing came along, those minds could change pretty quickly

1.Global Equities have been surging -- and here's one of a few key reasons why 👇 Globally we've seen a big pivot to easing by central banks, and basically what I would call a non-recessionary rate-cut-rush.(bullish!) 2.Absolutely catastrophic run in energy stocks vs gold miners...(but you always want to pay attention when extreme moves like this unfold e.g. see what happened last time a move like this occurred) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ 3.We’ve seen a generational up-shift in US equity allocations and valuations. It would be difficult to see either of these lines move further higher, the best case is probably just a new higher plateau… For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA toda

For those who are wondering what’s behind the moves in the chart above, or for those who may be skeptical on technicals, this next chart provides some critical context on what has been a major driver of the global equity bull market.Aside from global stocks coming off of very cheap valuations (vs their own history and vs US), we have seen a major pivot in global macroeconomic policy settings.Heading into 2025 there was already a shift towards easing, and then the chaos of H1 (tariff tantrum) triggered a wave of precautionary stimulus in response. This along with a weakening US dollar, rotation flows, and improving macro/earnings pulse has given a firm macro-fundamental backing to the technical developments which I laid out above. This is where you see the most interesting moves in markets: