1.We are now in Year 3 of the Bull MarketHistorically that has meant the onset of more ranging and volatile price action...The upside is if the bull market survives through to Year 4 it could mean more decent returns ahead.I don't think I need to explain the downside. Image2.US vs Global corporate earnings-huge divergence-clearly reflected in valuations-numerous threats/opportunities in 2025One (or both) of these has tremendous potential to surprise vs consensus this yearImage

I thought it would be worth resurfacing this chart from the series of educational articles I wrote earlier last year on valuations for multi-asset investors — and how to use valuation signals to navigate the market cycle.The basic concept is that valuation signals when they reach an extreme have powerful contrarian information; they tell us about forward-looking risk and opportunity set using current information. Through-the-range however they present momentum information.Applying this to the above chart we can understand the journey from extreme cheap in 2009 —at the time a very contrarian outlook of high upside probability (high opportunity), all the way through to now (I would say an equally contrarian outlook); high downside probability (high risk).And there’s a key point: these are no

This is absolutely incredible:US Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) stocks relative to global TMT stocks have hit an all-time high of 2.0x.This ratio has DOUBLED over the last 5 years.Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, US tech has outperformed its global peers by 5 TIMES.To put this into perspective, this ratio reached 0.7x at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak.In other words, the ratio is now nearly 3 TIMES higher than it was in 2000.US Big Tech is dominating.Image

Stocks for the Long-Run? This chart provides some useful perspective and a reminder that although those were extremely different times to now in just about every way, markets don’t always just go up all the time every time. There are plenty of examples across countries and history of relatively trend-less markets and lost decades. It’s not a reason to be pessimistic, but a reason to be pragmatic and ready in case the market doesn’t do what every finfluencer talking-head tells you 🤷‍♂️ $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ <

Here’s this week full list of 17 standout growth stock ideas from my favorite end-of-week "Strongest Growth Stock" screener, organized by industry group. The names listed below are showing outperformance with strong relative strength from a simple moving averages perspective against all major index and sector eg. 10-MA above 20-MA & price above 50-MA. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ $Cellebrite(CLBT)$ $Vista Energy(VIST)$ $SelectQuote, Inc.(SLQT)$ $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ $Ginkgo Biowo