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Intel's Takeover Tantrum Is About To Get Volatile - Brace For Impact

Seeking Alpha01-20 19:17

SummaryIntel faces heightened takeover speculation in 2025, with Elon Musk as a potential suitor, leading to increased volatility and risk/reward for shareholders.Intel's board, lacking semiconductor ...

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setia100
·01-20 20:10
It's good to let Elon Musk take over INTC. He has good track records than any newly hunted CEO. As traders, we need to monitor the share volume movement. Elon will sure acquire certain amount to get a seat or 2 on the board of directors.🤔
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Name-dropping Elon Musk has raised the premium significantly overnight for Intel’s $93 billion market to trade at par to its book value.On the face of it, the binary outcome might appear positive for Intel’s shareholders. But the insistence on any such deal overshadows the value of Intel’s assets, which could result in the stock getting whipsawed over the next few months, elevating the risk/reward for Intel’s shareholders.I am downgrading Intel to a Hold.Intel’s Post-Gelsinger Narrative Is Now In The Board’s HandsWhen I first published a note on Intel in September last year, I was optimistic about Intel’s roadmap to save $10 billion, fortify margins and then return to single-digit growth. Previous management under Pat Gelsinger, had reported gross margins to be finally flat at the 40% mark on a TTM-basis, arresting the decline that started since 2018.Exhibit A: Intel’s Gross Margins showed the first signs of stabilization after falling every year since 2018. (Company filings)But those plans have fallen by the wayside after the abrupt retirement of Pat Gelsinger. The new management has positioned itself on a co-CEO structure, on an interim basis while there is a search to find a new CEO at the same time who is apparently required to demonstrate considerable experience at running a semiconductor fab.At the moment, Intel’s Board is leading the search for the new CEO but given the weight of the board’s members that have more experience with finance, investments, VCs and deals rather than experience with running actual semiconductor companies, I find it more likely that a deal for Intel to get acquired is on the cards now, especially since the chairperson of the board has deep in striking deals related to M&A & investment banking. I anticipate the M&A Committee on Intel’s Board to be particularly active at this time.Exhibit B: Intel’s Board of Directors had very little to do with semiconductors. The recent nominations to the Board may change that slightly. (Company sources)But, simultaneously, Intel also just hired two more independent directors last month who have extensive experience in the semiconductor industry and appear to be one of the strongest nominations tied to industry experience in recent years. One of them has direct experience with supplying fab equipment which could also mean charting out a sustainable path for Intel’s fab unit from here on.Still, I strongly suspect Intel will likely get acquired if the company is unable to sustain margins and the road to being acquired will be choppy due to the nationalistic sentiment that could be attached to the takeover deal, the presence of multiple high-profile suitors that are involved and the strong regulation headwinds that the deal will be subject to.Recapping The List Of Intel’s Suitors - And Musk’s AdditionIn 2024, Intel also witnessed many moments of its Takeover Tantrum taking shape which began in the Q2 of last year.This started initially with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) looking to acquire Intel’s design business, especially the part of the design business that was more focused on PC business. But the interest from Qualcomm looked to have cooled off as the company reportedly was waiting for more certainty from the outcome of the US Elections.Pat Gelsinger’s insistence at keeping Intel’s fab business and design business may have also pushed out Qualcomm’s interest. But with Gelsinger out, it still remains a possibility that Qualcomm could be back as a suitor to acquire parts of Intel’s design assets. I still believe the likelihood of Qualcomm’s deal being approved in case of a deal being finalized, would face more scrutiny due to Qualcomm’s revenue dependance on China. The incoming US administration is likely to step up pressure on protecting Intel’s American assets from parties that may have any dependance or ties to China.Apollo Global is another likely party that has demonstrated some interest in taking Intel private. Apollo reached an $11 billion agreement with Intel last year to acquire a non-controlling interest in one of Intel’s fab locations. They had reportedly already approached Intel with more equity-related interest. Given the ties that many of Intel’s board members have with the investment world, this becomes a more likely possibility.Other peers have already excused themselves from any thing to do with acquiring Intel. Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Holdings (ARM) and Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) have already counted themselves out of any ties to Intel’s takeover speculation. The heads of Taiwan Semi and Broadcom have already set expectations that Intel’s acquisition does not align with their vision while Arm Holdings’ offer to buyout Intel was rejected by the latter.That leaves the new “mystery buyer” or “the company” according to the original report, who is speculated to be Elon Musk. The report suggests that “the company in question wanted to acquire Intel whole” and “has the resources to pull it off, especially at Intel’s current valuation too.”While this could end up being beneficial for shareholders, I think the next few months could end up in a wild ride for investors.A timeline of Musk’s X (previously known as Twitter) takeover drama would suggest heightened uncertainty throughout the process which spanned a period of 6 months that did eventually see the takeover fall through but only after months of gut-wrenching moments.Exhibit C: If Musk were to take over Intel, one could see immense volatility as seen in Twitter’s 2022 price chart. (TradingView)But the drama did result in a 20-30% premium in X/Twitter’s market cap from the day before the deal was announced or ~10% premium after Elon Musk formally announced the deal.Currently, the value of Intel’s book is ~$99 billion and taking into account its market cap of $92.7 billion, the company’s market cap trades almost at par with its book value which is very appealing for any takeover suitor.Given that Musk's deal goes through, I expect it to fetch Intel a valuation of ~1.2x book value which implies ~25% premium for Intel’s current investors today.Exhibit D: Intel's Valuation Offers Suitors With A Compelling Premium (yCharts)Other Factors To KnowBut as I pointed out, there are significant roadblocks to investors seeing full benefits of the Musk premium that could possibly play out if Elon Musk announces the intention to acquire Intel’s assets in whole.There obviously is going to be regulatory scrutiny that comes with such deals especially when Intel is being looked upon as America’s chip company. With Musk, the regulatory scrutiny might be less given Musk’s ties to the administration but usually Musk structures his deals with multiple parties involved or a consortium and there needs to be zero representation from China in those parties for Musk’s reported takeover to fall through.If the X/Twitter deal had its fair share of uncertainty as seen in Exhibit C, the heightened regulatory scrutiny, additional financing and complexity of Intel’s asset structure will create some more uncertainty for Intel’s investors.The risks are heightened and given the uncertainty it is possible now that Intel’s stock trades at valuations that can be more depressed than its current levels. That would erase in theoretical premiums that can be estimated from today’s valuation multiples due to the heightened risk/reward profile for Intel.It is also possible that some of the parties involved could be hyperscalers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are the only two customers that currently use Intel’s 18A node and it is possible that either of these hyperscalers may deploy their capital to purchase Intel’s Fab unit eventually.The complexity of Intel’s deal cannot be looked over given the risks. Take the timeline of this hostile bid for instance where Broadcom attempted to takeover Qualcomm in 2017-2018. That takeover tantrum lasted 6 months and resulted in sub-par returns for Qualcomm’s shareholders but ended up in the latter thwarting any takeover attempt.TakeawayWith the incoming US administration on the cusp of being officially sworn in, it is almost officially deal-time for America. The opportunity to acquire Intel, which was once one of the largest semiconductor companies of the world and was the pride of the US semiconductor industry, is too large to ignore.And the suitors are circling in. Intel’s current market cap is trading almost at par with its book value creating attractive takeover premiums for potential suitors.But there is enough complexity in any deal to acquire Intel that will result in elevated volatility for Intel’s shareholders and I am downgrading this stock to a Hold based on my research.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":394661848609160,"gmtCreate":1737375043628,"gmtModify":1737377253049,"author":{"id":"3567852837945728","authorId":"3567852837945728","name":"setia100","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d07af59743ad001196b7aca5f1726d7","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567852837945728","authorIdStr":"3567852837945728"},"htmlText":"It's good to let Elon Musk take over INTC. He has good track records than any newly hunted CEO.&nbsp; As traders, we need to monitor the share volume movement. Elon will sure acquire certain amount to get a seat or 2 on the board of directors.🤔","listText":"It's good to let Elon Musk take over INTC. He has good track records than any newly hunted CEO.&nbsp; As traders, we need to monitor the share volume movement. Elon will sure acquire certain amount to get a seat or 2 on the board of directors.🤔","text":"It's good to let Elon Musk take over INTC. He has good track records than any newly hunted CEO. As traders, we need to monitor the share volume movement. Elon will sure acquire certain amount to get a seat or 2 on the board of directors.🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/394661848609160","repostId":1138822216,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138822216","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737371836,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138822216?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-20 19:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel's Takeover Tantrum Is About To Get Volatile - Brace For Impact","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138822216","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryIntel faces heightened takeover speculation in 2025, with Elon Musk as a potential suitor, leading to increased volatility and risk/reward for shareholders.Intel's board, lacking semiconductor ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_3778082705\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Intel faces heightened takeover speculation in 2025, with Elon Musk as a potential suitor, leading to increased volatility and risk/reward for shareholders.</p></li><li><p>Intel&#39;s board, lacking semiconductor experience, is actively seeking a new CEO, while considering acquisition offers, adding to the uncertainty.</p></li><li><p>Regulatory scrutiny and nationalistic sentiment could complicate any takeover deal, especially given Intel&#39;s significance as America&#39;s chip company.</p></li><li><p>Despite potential premiums, the complexity and risks of a takeover lead to a Hold rating for Intel, with possible depressed valuations ahead.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8169915ee74a6d21a52f1595dc2e323f\" alt=\"takasuu\" title=\"takasuu\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>takasuu</span></p><h2 id=\"id_2756883306\">Investment Thesis</h2><p>If 2024 has proven anything for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), at the very least it is that the company was unable to escape the takeover tantrum that overshadowed hope for any further fundamental turnarounds that were in store for Intel.</p><p>By the end of last year, there emerged at least 4 suitors that were circling around Intel, once the largest semiconductor company in the world by revenue and also the most valuable chip company at one point.</p><p>The latest rumored addition to the list of suitors is Elon Musk himself, looking to acquire Intel’s assets. Name-dropping Elon Musk has raised the premium significantly overnight for Intel’s $93 billion market to trade at par to its book value.</p><p>On the face of it, the binary outcome might appear positive for Intel’s shareholders. But the insistence on any such deal overshadows the value of Intel’s assets, which could result in the stock getting whipsawed over the next few months, elevating the risk/reward for Intel’s shareholders.</p><p>I am downgrading Intel to a Hold.</p><h2 id=\"id_2375142801\">Intel’s Post-Gelsinger Narrative Is Now In The Board’s Hands</h2><p>When I first published a note on Intel in September last year, I was optimistic about Intel’s roadmap to save $10 billion, fortify margins and then return to single-digit growth. Previous management under Pat Gelsinger, had reported gross margins to be finally flat at the 40% mark on a TTM-basis, arresting the decline that started since 2018.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2b869ad616903542c8a6a533e103c25\" alt=\"Exhibit A: Intel’s Gross Margins showed the first signs of stabilization after falling every year since 2018. (Company filings)\" title=\"Exhibit A: Intel’s Gross Margins showed the first signs of stabilization after falling every year since 2018. (Company filings)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"/><span>Exhibit A: Intel’s Gross Margins showed the first signs of stabilization after falling every year since 2018. (Company filings)</span></p><p>But those plans have fallen by the wayside after the abrupt retirement of Pat Gelsinger. The new management has positioned itself on a co-CEO structure, on an interim basis while there is a search to find a new CEO at the same time who is apparently required to demonstrate considerable experience at running a semiconductor fab.</p><p>At the moment, Intel’s Board is leading the search for the new CEO but given the weight of the board’s members that have more experience with finance, investments, VCs and deals rather than experience with running actual semiconductor companies, I find it more likely that a deal for Intel to get acquired is on the cards now, especially since the chairperson of the board has deep in striking deals related to M&amp;A &amp; investment banking. I anticipate the M&amp;A Committee on Intel’s Board to be particularly active at this time.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/33ea689cccc2ccd7985a855b121ca7c0\" alt=\"Exhibit B: Intel’s Board of Directors had very little to do with semiconductors. The recent nominations to the Board may change that slightly. (Company sources)\" title=\"Exhibit B: Intel’s Board of Directors had very little to do with semiconductors. The recent nominations to the Board may change that slightly. (Company sources)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\"/><span>Exhibit B: Intel’s Board of Directors had very little to do with semiconductors. The recent nominations to the Board may change that slightly. (Company sources)</span></p><p>But, simultaneously, Intel also just hired two more independent directors last month who have extensive experience in the semiconductor industry and appear to be one of the strongest nominations tied to industry experience in recent years. One of them has direct experience with supplying fab equipment which could also mean charting out a sustainable path for Intel’s fab unit from here on.</p><p>Still, I strongly suspect Intel will likely get acquired if the company is unable to sustain margins and the road to being acquired will be choppy due to the nationalistic sentiment that could be attached to the takeover deal, the presence of multiple high-profile suitors that are involved and the strong regulation headwinds that the deal will be subject to.</p><h2 id=\"id_3438548425\">Recapping The List Of Intel’s Suitors - And Musk’s Addition</h2><p>In 2024, Intel also witnessed many moments of its Takeover Tantrum taking shape which began in the Q2 of last year.</p><p><strong>This started initially with Qualcomm</strong> (NASDAQ:QCOM) looking to acquire Intel’s design business, especially the part of the design business that was more focused on PC business. But the interest from Qualcomm looked to have cooled off as the company reportedly was waiting for more certainty from the outcome of the US Elections.</p><p>Pat Gelsinger’s insistence at keeping Intel’s fab business and design business may have also pushed out Qualcomm’s interest. But with Gelsinger out, it still remains a possibility that Qualcomm could be back as a suitor to acquire parts of Intel’s design assets. I still believe the likelihood of Qualcomm’s deal being approved in case of a deal being finalized, would face more scrutiny due to Qualcomm’s revenue dependance on China. The incoming US administration is likely to step up pressure on protecting Intel’s American assets from parties that may have any dependance or ties to China.</p><p><strong>Apollo Global is another likely party</strong> that has demonstrated some interest in taking Intel private. Apollo reached an $11 billion agreement with Intel last year to acquire a non-controlling interest in one of Intel’s fab locations. They had reportedly already approached Intel with more equity-related interest. Given the ties that many of Intel’s board members have with the investment world, this becomes a more likely possibility.</p><p><strong>Other peers have already excused themselves</strong> from any thing to do with acquiring Intel. Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Holdings (ARM) and Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) have already counted themselves out of any ties to Intel’s takeover speculation. The heads of Taiwan Semi and Broadcom have already set expectations that Intel’s acquisition does not align with their vision while Arm Holdings’ offer to buyout Intel was rejected by the latter.</p><p><strong>That leaves the new <em>“mystery buyer”</em></strong> or <em>“the company”</em> according to the original report, who is speculated to be Elon Musk. The report suggests that <em>“the company in question wanted to acquire Intel whole” </em>and<em> “has the resources to pull it off, especially at Intel’s current valuation too.”</em></p><p>While this could end up being beneficial for shareholders, I think the next few months could end up in a wild ride for investors.</p><p>A timeline of Musk’s X <em>(previously known as Twitter)</em> takeover drama would suggest heightened uncertainty throughout the process which spanned a period of 6 months that did eventually see the takeover fall through but only after months of gut-wrenching moments.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1bffd0363637c27bb57f99e7fbb002f\" alt=\"Exhibit C: If Musk were to take over Intel, one could see immense volatility as seen in Twitter’s 2022 price chart. (TradingView)\" title=\"Exhibit C: If Musk were to take over Intel, one could see immense volatility as seen in Twitter’s 2022 price chart. (TradingView)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"197\"/><span>Exhibit C: If Musk were to take over Intel, one could see immense volatility as seen in Twitter’s 2022 price chart. (TradingView)</span></p><p>But the drama did result in a 20-30% premium in X/Twitter’s market cap from the day before the deal was announced or ~10% premium after Elon Musk formally announced the deal.</p><p>Currently, the value of Intel’s book is ~$99 billion and taking into account its market cap of $92.7 billion, the company’s market cap trades almost at par with its book value which is very appealing for any takeover suitor.</p><p>Given that Musk&#39;s deal goes through, I expect it to fetch Intel a valuation of ~1.2x book value which implies ~25% premium for Intel’s current investors today.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5abb8342e11bc7d776763839bf8dffc1\" alt=\"Exhibit D: Intel&#39;s Valuation Offers Suitors With A Compelling Premium (yCharts)\" title=\"Exhibit D: Intel&#39;s Valuation Offers Suitors With A Compelling Premium (yCharts)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"411\"/><span>Exhibit D: Intel&#39;s Valuation Offers Suitors With A Compelling Premium (yCharts)</span></p><h2 id=\"id_954292466\">Other Factors To Know</h2><p>But as I pointed out, there are significant roadblocks to investors seeing full benefits of the Musk premium that could possibly play out if Elon Musk announces the intention to acquire Intel’s assets in whole.</p><p>There obviously is going to be regulatory scrutiny that comes with such deals especially when Intel is being looked upon as America’s chip company. With Musk, the regulatory scrutiny might be less given Musk’s ties to the administration but usually Musk structures his deals with multiple parties involved or a consortium and there needs to be zero representation from China in those parties for Musk’s reported takeover to fall through.</p><p>If the X/Twitter deal had its fair share of uncertainty as seen in Exhibit C, the heightened regulatory scrutiny, additional financing and complexity of Intel’s asset structure will create some more uncertainty for Intel’s investors.</p><p>The risks are heightened and given the uncertainty it is possible now that Intel’s stock trades at valuations that can be more depressed than its current levels. That would erase in theoretical premiums that can be estimated from today’s valuation multiples due to the heightened risk/reward profile for Intel.</p><p>It is also possible that some of the parties involved could be hyperscalers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are the only two customers that currently use Intel’s 18A node and it is possible that either of these hyperscalers may deploy their capital to purchase Intel’s Fab unit eventually.</p><p>The complexity of Intel’s deal cannot be looked over given the risks. Take the timeline of this hostile bid for instance where Broadcom attempted to takeover Qualcomm in 2017-2018. That takeover tantrum lasted 6 months and resulted in sub-par returns for Qualcomm’s shareholders but ended up in the latter thwarting any takeover attempt.</p><h2 id=\"id_2965507208\">Takeaway</h2><p>With the incoming US administration on the cusp of being officially sworn in, it is almost officially deal-time for America. The opportunity to acquire Intel, which was once one of the largest semiconductor companies of the world and was the pride of the US semiconductor industry, is too large to ignore.</p><p>And the suitors are circling in. Intel’s current market cap is trading almost at par with its book value creating attractive takeover premiums for potential suitors.</p><p>But there is enough complexity in any deal to acquire Intel that will result in elevated volatility for Intel’s shareholders and I am downgrading this stock to a Hold based on my research.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel's Takeover Tantrum Is About To Get Volatile - Brace For Impact</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel's Takeover Tantrum Is About To Get Volatile - Brace For Impact\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-20 19:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4750435-intels-takeover-tantrum-is-about-to-get-volatile-brace-for-impact><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryIntel faces heightened takeover speculation in 2025, with Elon Musk as a potential suitor, leading to increased volatility and risk/reward for shareholders.Intel's board, lacking semiconductor ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4750435-intels-takeover-tantrum-is-about-to-get-volatile-brace-for-impact\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4750435-intels-takeover-tantrum-is-about-to-get-volatile-brace-for-impact","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138822216","content_text":"SummaryIntel faces heightened takeover speculation in 2025, with Elon Musk as a potential suitor, leading to increased volatility and risk/reward for shareholders.Intel's board, lacking semiconductor experience, is actively seeking a new CEO, while considering acquisition offers, adding to the uncertainty.Regulatory scrutiny and nationalistic sentiment could complicate any takeover deal, especially given Intel's significance as America's chip company.Despite potential premiums, the complexity and risks of a takeover lead to a Hold rating for Intel, with possible depressed valuations ahead.takasuuInvestment ThesisIf 2024 has proven anything for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), at the very least it is that the company was unable to escape the takeover tantrum that overshadowed hope for any further fundamental turnarounds that were in store for Intel.By the end of last year, there emerged at least 4 suitors that were circling around Intel, once the largest semiconductor company in the world by revenue and also the most valuable chip company at one point.The latest rumored addition to the list of suitors is Elon Musk himself, looking to acquire Intel’s assets. Name-dropping Elon Musk has raised the premium significantly overnight for Intel’s $93 billion market to trade at par to its book value.On the face of it, the binary outcome might appear positive for Intel’s shareholders. But the insistence on any such deal overshadows the value of Intel’s assets, which could result in the stock getting whipsawed over the next few months, elevating the risk/reward for Intel’s shareholders.I am downgrading Intel to a Hold.Intel’s Post-Gelsinger Narrative Is Now In The Board’s HandsWhen I first published a note on Intel in September last year, I was optimistic about Intel’s roadmap to save $10 billion, fortify margins and then return to single-digit growth. Previous management under Pat Gelsinger, had reported gross margins to be finally flat at the 40% mark on a TTM-basis, arresting the decline that started since 2018.Exhibit A: Intel’s Gross Margins showed the first signs of stabilization after falling every year since 2018. (Company filings)But those plans have fallen by the wayside after the abrupt retirement of Pat Gelsinger. The new management has positioned itself on a co-CEO structure, on an interim basis while there is a search to find a new CEO at the same time who is apparently required to demonstrate considerable experience at running a semiconductor fab.At the moment, Intel’s Board is leading the search for the new CEO but given the weight of the board’s members that have more experience with finance, investments, VCs and deals rather than experience with running actual semiconductor companies, I find it more likely that a deal for Intel to get acquired is on the cards now, especially since the chairperson of the board has deep in striking deals related to M&A & investment banking. I anticipate the M&A Committee on Intel’s Board to be particularly active at this time.Exhibit B: Intel’s Board of Directors had very little to do with semiconductors. The recent nominations to the Board may change that slightly. (Company sources)But, simultaneously, Intel also just hired two more independent directors last month who have extensive experience in the semiconductor industry and appear to be one of the strongest nominations tied to industry experience in recent years. One of them has direct experience with supplying fab equipment which could also mean charting out a sustainable path for Intel’s fab unit from here on.Still, I strongly suspect Intel will likely get acquired if the company is unable to sustain margins and the road to being acquired will be choppy due to the nationalistic sentiment that could be attached to the takeover deal, the presence of multiple high-profile suitors that are involved and the strong regulation headwinds that the deal will be subject to.Recapping The List Of Intel’s Suitors - And Musk’s AdditionIn 2024, Intel also witnessed many moments of its Takeover Tantrum taking shape which began in the Q2 of last year.This started initially with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) looking to acquire Intel’s design business, especially the part of the design business that was more focused on PC business. But the interest from Qualcomm looked to have cooled off as the company reportedly was waiting for more certainty from the outcome of the US Elections.Pat Gelsinger’s insistence at keeping Intel’s fab business and design business may have also pushed out Qualcomm’s interest. But with Gelsinger out, it still remains a possibility that Qualcomm could be back as a suitor to acquire parts of Intel’s design assets. I still believe the likelihood of Qualcomm’s deal being approved in case of a deal being finalized, would face more scrutiny due to Qualcomm’s revenue dependance on China. The incoming US administration is likely to step up pressure on protecting Intel’s American assets from parties that may have any dependance or ties to China.Apollo Global is another likely party that has demonstrated some interest in taking Intel private. Apollo reached an $11 billion agreement with Intel last year to acquire a non-controlling interest in one of Intel’s fab locations. They had reportedly already approached Intel with more equity-related interest. Given the ties that many of Intel’s board members have with the investment world, this becomes a more likely possibility.Other peers have already excused themselves from any thing to do with acquiring Intel. Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Holdings (ARM) and Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM) have already counted themselves out of any ties to Intel’s takeover speculation. The heads of Taiwan Semi and Broadcom have already set expectations that Intel’s acquisition does not align with their vision while Arm Holdings’ offer to buyout Intel was rejected by the latter.That leaves the new “mystery buyer” or “the company” according to the original report, who is speculated to be Elon Musk. The report suggests that “the company in question wanted to acquire Intel whole” and “has the resources to pull it off, especially at Intel’s current valuation too.”While this could end up being beneficial for shareholders, I think the next few months could end up in a wild ride for investors.A timeline of Musk’s X (previously known as Twitter) takeover drama would suggest heightened uncertainty throughout the process which spanned a period of 6 months that did eventually see the takeover fall through but only after months of gut-wrenching moments.Exhibit C: If Musk were to take over Intel, one could see immense volatility as seen in Twitter’s 2022 price chart. (TradingView)But the drama did result in a 20-30% premium in X/Twitter’s market cap from the day before the deal was announced or ~10% premium after Elon Musk formally announced the deal.Currently, the value of Intel’s book is ~$99 billion and taking into account its market cap of $92.7 billion, the company’s market cap trades almost at par with its book value which is very appealing for any takeover suitor.Given that Musk's deal goes through, I expect it to fetch Intel a valuation of ~1.2x book value which implies ~25% premium for Intel’s current investors today.Exhibit D: Intel's Valuation Offers Suitors With A Compelling Premium (yCharts)Other Factors To KnowBut as I pointed out, there are significant roadblocks to investors seeing full benefits of the Musk premium that could possibly play out if Elon Musk announces the intention to acquire Intel’s assets in whole.There obviously is going to be regulatory scrutiny that comes with such deals especially when Intel is being looked upon as America’s chip company. With Musk, the regulatory scrutiny might be less given Musk’s ties to the administration but usually Musk structures his deals with multiple parties involved or a consortium and there needs to be zero representation from China in those parties for Musk’s reported takeover to fall through.If the X/Twitter deal had its fair share of uncertainty as seen in Exhibit C, the heightened regulatory scrutiny, additional financing and complexity of Intel’s asset structure will create some more uncertainty for Intel’s investors.The risks are heightened and given the uncertainty it is possible now that Intel’s stock trades at valuations that can be more depressed than its current levels. That would erase in theoretical premiums that can be estimated from today’s valuation multiples due to the heightened risk/reward profile for Intel.It is also possible that some of the parties involved could be hyperscalers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are the only two customers that currently use Intel’s 18A node and it is possible that either of these hyperscalers may deploy their capital to purchase Intel’s Fab unit eventually.The complexity of Intel’s deal cannot be looked over given the risks. Take the timeline of this hostile bid for instance where Broadcom attempted to takeover Qualcomm in 2017-2018. That takeover tantrum lasted 6 months and resulted in sub-par returns for Qualcomm’s shareholders but ended up in the latter thwarting any takeover attempt.TakeawayWith the incoming US administration on the cusp of being officially sworn in, it is almost officially deal-time for America. The opportunity to acquire Intel, which was once one of the largest semiconductor companies of the world and was the pride of the US semiconductor industry, is too large to ignore.And the suitors are circling in. Intel’s current market cap is trading almost at par with its book value creating attractive takeover premiums for potential suitors.But there is enough complexity in any deal to acquire Intel that will result in elevated volatility for Intel’s shareholders and I am downgrading this stock to a Hold based on my research.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}