JPMorgan Says Trump’s Tariffs to Send US Into Recession

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JPMorgan Says Trump’s Tariffs to Send US Into Recession

Bloomberg04-05

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it expects the US economy to fall into a recession this year after accounting for the likely impact of tariffs announced this week by the Trump administration.“We now expect ...

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Guavaxf30
·04-05
Don't count on rate cuts helping. For the Fed to do this, even as inflation rises again, the economy would have dived so badly, any rate cuts may actually make things worst. The best thing for the economy now is for either Trump to reverse gears and call off the tariffs. Or better still, just resign.
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On Thursday, Barclays Plc said it expects GDP to contract in 2025, “consistent with a recession.”On Friday, Citi economists cut their forecast for growth this year to just 0.1%, and UBS economists dropped theirs to 0.4%.“We expect US imports from the rest of the world fall more than 20% over our forecast horizon, mostly in the next several quarters, bringing imports as a share of GDP back to pre-1986 levels,” UBS Chief US Economist Jonathan Pingle said in a note. “The forcefulness of the trade policy action implies substantial macroeconomic adjustment for a $30 trillion economy.”‘Stagflationary Forecast’Feroli said he expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in June and proceed with rate cuts at each subsequent meeting through January, bringing the benchmark into a 2.75% to 3% range from the current 4.25% to 4.5% range.Those cuts would come despite a rise in a key measure of underlying inflation to 4.4% by the end of the year, from the current level of 2.8%.“If realized, our stagflationary forecast would present a dilemma to Fed policymakers,” Feroli wrote. “We believe material weakness in the labor market holds sway in the end, particularly if it results in weaker wage growth thereby giving the committee more confidence that a price-wage spiral isn’t taking hold.”On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “it feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry” to make any adjustments to rates. His comments followed the release of the latest monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed robust hiring in March alongside a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, to 4.2%.Investors are betting on a full percentage point of reductions by the end of the year, according to futures.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".DJI":1.1,".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}