Fabian MacDonald

    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-25 02:13
      $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ Reminder: Amazon and other hyperscalers need more lasers and transceivers than they can currently produce. They already have open contracts in place. The growth is coming.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-24 05:08
      $SpaceX(SPCX)$  Musk has an unsurpassed record of technological and business achievements. He was, and still is, a self-made millionaire, billionaire, and trillionaire. Self-made.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-21
      $SK hynix(SKHY)$  SK Hynix shares surged more than 12% in Seoul after the company said it was accelerating its 40 trillion won ($28.7 billion) share buyback and cancellation program. The company also plans to expand shareholder returns to more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow generated between 2025 and 2027. Citi analyst Peter Lee said the buyback could provide a meaningful floor for the stock and offer near-term downside protection, while also signaling SK Hynix's confidence in its medium- to long-term growth prospects despite current headwinds in the memory-chip market. The announcement follows SK Hynix's decision earlier this month to invest 54 trillion won in new memory-chip manufacturing facilities, as
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-17
      $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ Looking great. Rebounded 75% from the $1000 bottom.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-14
      $SK hynix(SKHY)$  I'm sticking with at least a one-year holding period here because the company itself is really solid. A lot of IPOs bounce around early on, but the real question is what's actually under the hood. In this case, I'm just doing buy and hold.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-11
      $Netlist, Inc.(NLST)$ shorts are in a difficult position. 36.85M shares short, 11.38% of the float, 22.18 days to cover. Most of the position was established before the Samsung alliance fundamentally changed the story. NLST has held near $4 after its major repricing. The key near-term level is $4.22—the post-announcement high. A strong break above $4.22 with volume could trigger additional buying and force some shorts to cover. Can they cover? Yes—but covering millions of shares without driving the price higher may be difficult if shareholders continue holding. If another positive catalyst hits before the short position is materially reduced, the potential for a significant squeeze increases dramatically.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-11
      $SK hynix(SKHY)$ Hypothetical buyout scenario for NLST: getting 1 share of NVDA per 2 NLST plus $40 cash per share, or 1 share of SKHY per 5 NLST plus $30 cash per share, or 1 share of GOOGL per 5 NLST plus $60 cash per share — they infringed just before the Google browser took off with speed. Also 2 shares of SMCI per 1 NLST plus $15 cash. That's the dream scenario. Or just wait a year or two and see if the stock can reach $60-80.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-10
      $SK hynix(SKHY)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ If Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung could offload Apple onto CXMT, it would be a net positive for them right now, and likely for the next 10 years. Not only could they escape that low-margin business, they could pass that buck onto CXMT and tie up CXMT for quite some time. Apple's testing of CXMT is really more a matter of whether Apple can survive such a transition for its China sales. CXMT memory is inferior to all the other brands in many ways. Xiaomi now has the
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-07
      $SpaceX(SPCX)$ Margin calls look like they're hitting today. With SPCX up +6% on unlock day, the numbers paint a pretty clear picture. Shorts are getting squeezed, and the borrow fee jumped from 6.17% to 10.79% in just 24 hours. High put volume combined with a rising price means theta burn and mark-to-market losses piling up. The unlock didn't trigger the selling a lot of people expected. Instead, short covering lifted the stock. This is exactly the kind of setup where margin desks start tapping traders who leaned too hard into the unlock dump narrative.
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    • Fabian MacDonaldFabian MacDonald
      ·08-06
      $SpaceX(SPCX)$ I ran the numbers and closed out at $116. Couldn't justify that much risk. Taking my small profit and waiting for a much better entry, though honestly, where that is nobody knows. The whole thing feels off. I'm still extremely bullish on the company and the idea, just not on the financials. It's like working part-time at a fast-food place and claiming you're a millionaire.
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