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吻住硪还能硬

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- 吻住硪还能硬吻住硪还能硬
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  Why do I vote for Great Wall Motors now? ThinkBig
  来源：雪球App，作者：金凤一号，（https://xueqiu.com/6465851184/136955171），汽车是强周期股，我从周期框架、定性分析、估值三方面简单讲讲：一、周期判断。国内汽
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19:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Why do I vote for Great Wall Motors now? ThinkBig","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1989417490","media":"金凤一号","summary":"来源：雪球App，作者： 金凤一号，（https://xueqiu.com/6465851184/136955171），汽车是强周期股，我从周期框架、定性分析、估值三方面简单讲讲：一、周期判断。国内汽","content":"<p><html><body><article>Source: Snowball App, Author: Jinfeng No.1, (https: / /xueqiu.com/6465851184/136955171)</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211027011d034jvq029t2w99\"/>Automobile is a strong cyclical stock. Let me briefly talk about it from three aspects: cyclical framework, qualitative analysis and valuation:</p><p>1. Period judgment.</p><p>Since the domestic automobile industry peaked in 2016 and began to decline, major automobile enterprises have taken the initiative to destock for survival, and their profitability and valuation levels have experienced a sharp decline. At present, major brokerages generally judge that the automobile industry will recover from 2020, which is a small consensus. Tianfeng's car fans are more quantitative: it is judged that the current is the transition stage from active destocking to passive destocking, that is, the eve of the recovery of the automobile industry.</p><p>The scale of the automobile industry is huge, showing an obvious boom cycle of 3-4 years, and inventory fluctuation is the core of the influence. Looking at past investment performance, grasping cyclical fluctuations is extremely important for automobile investment. We define a complete cycle of cars: active destocking-passive destocking-active adding stock-passive adding stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211027688d034div0lcia0ee\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211028894d034pqk11t7nrf1\"/>Of course, Jinfeng also draws a similar periodic judgment from the temperature curve trend chart of the automobile industry made by himself, but it is more observational:</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211029518d034qerdr5jh72n\"/>However, you have to read this picture, refer to this web link</p><p>At present, the relative temperature of the automobile industry has touched 0℃, and the absolute temperature has touched 100℃. It also shows the current relative valuation (odds) of the automobile industry, the worst profitability, and the characteristics of strong cyclical stocks. So when is the full recovery? I judge probabilistically that it should be when the absolute temperature drastically calls back and converges with the relative temperature.</p><p>2. Qualitative judgment:</p><p>The main logic of my current automobile investment-independent rise and share increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211029863d034fg27rrdm5aw\"/>At present, several phenomena of independence and joint venture are worth talking about:</p><p>1. One is the low-end models, and the independent and joint venture markets have begun to transform. Originally, the joint venture focused on first-and second-tier cities, based on brand and quality. Independent production in the third and fourth lines and townships, focusing on cheapness. Now with inflation, higher income and lower price cuts for mid-to low-end vehicles and the rise of new energy vehicles. Joint venture price reduction began to enter the third and fourth lines and towns, focusing on brand and face. Independence began to be accepted by the first-and second-tier middle class and young people, focusing on cost performance, trend and advanced network intelligence.</p><p>2. In the low-end field of traditional fuel, there is no substantial gap between head autonomy and joint venture in quality and technology, and in the field of new energy, they are equal.</p><p>3. In terms of model update rhythm and network intelligence, due to the long decision-making process, the joint venture has been slightly fatigued compared with head autonomy. The emergence of new car-making forces may bring about huge changes in automobile business model.</p><p>4. In terms of cost control, joint venture has no advantage over autonomy. It can't compare efficiency with independent pure private car companies.</p><p>In this way, independent rise and share increase should be like mobile phones, which is a relatively certain thing, and we are in it, which is happening.</p><p>So which ones to choose in autonomy? Let's choose from the TOP10 and talk about my own qualitative analysis.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211030279d0341gfk8uxd2w6\"/>1. SAIC, GAC, Dongfeng, BAIC, FAW and Brilliance, except SAIC, have basically never earned any money, and all rely on joint venture blood transfusion. Neither R&D nor technology can completely get rid of the restraint of joint ventures. The above mentions the disadvantages of some changes in the current joint venture brands. If our main logic is independent substitution, it is doomed that these independent brands under the breath of joint ventures will not become bigger and stronger to grab the share of joint ventures. If they happen, they will inevitably be clamped down by the game of interests.</p><p>2. Chang' an has always done an outstanding job independently, but it has never made any money, relying on Ford for blood transfusion. Now that Ford has shown a decline, it will become more difficult for Changan to become independent. At the same time, the state has a plan to load the car assets of Dongfeng and FAW into Changan. In that way, Changan is destined to become bigger but not strong.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>In fact, it is more like a battery company, and it is also its profitable part. At present, the business logic of the whole vehicle and cloud rail is based on subsidies. Like Internet companies, pig hair comes from sheep. However, the sheep chosen by BYD is not an ordinary consumer, but the government, so this model must not be established for a long time. In addition, in terms of debt, BYD really relies on borrowing to survive now, and the debt rolls and repays the interest. When will the profit model of new energy vehicles be established, and whether BYD can sustain it is risky and uncertain.</p><p>4. Geely has a good momentum and a good car. However, the boss's capital is too slippery, with domestic loans and outsourcing, all kinds of guarantees and unclear liabilities. The related party transactions between the group and listed companies are complicated, the stock price is relatively high, and the risk is high.</p><p>So with one stroke, I really have no choice but to choose $<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>(02333) $.</p><p>Standing at this point in time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Several shortcomings, I judge to be falsified and made up</p><p>1. Lack of cars, walking on one leg. This doesn't hold up. Nowadays, there is no big technical difference between sedans and SUVs, and the platforms are universal. I believe that if the Great Wall wants to build a car, it will take minutes. It's just that there is not so much difference between cars and SUVs in China now, and some crossovers are even more unclear. It can only be said that at the same cost, Chinese people prefer SUVs with large space, high chassis and good vision. The Great Wall is only profit-oriented and has found this positioning breakthrough. So don't force Lao Wei to build cars in the future. People have said, why do you build cars if they don't make money now? If you want to build, you will also build A00 pure electric Euler.</p><p>2. New energy started late. This view was particularly prominent in 2017, when we spent money on new energy points. At present, because the Great Wall is profit-oriented, it feels that new energy does not rely on subsidies and does not make money, which is indeed a step late on the product side. But research and development and technology have not fallen behind. Recently, the rise of honeycomb energy in the new energy industry also makes me feel a little surprised. This short board has been made up for at present, and there is even a trend of overtaking.</p><p>3. The Great Wall is at the forefront of hydrogen energy. However, this thing is far away, and it can only be used as a long-term logical existence to support the stock price, which is the icing on the cake.</p><p>4. Network intelligence and automatic driving. I was actually more worried about this one. In fact, new car-building forces such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The rise of XPeng, etc. has no advantage in car manufacturing cost and quality control. The only thing that can be seen is that there are some advantages in network intelligence. After all, it is an Internet gene enterprise. But then I saw Huawei,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>These Internet big coffees have also entered the R&D and development of this field strongly. I think the advantages of new car-making forces in this respect are also worth worrying about. As for the Great Wall, although it is continuously investing in autonomous driving and intelligent interconnection, considering the conservative culture of the Great Wall, I was worried that I would fall behind in this area. However, now that the beam with BMW is on the right track, and the two companies are jointly developed, I feel much more relieved. Let BMW, an international vision<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Brand manufacturers take this piece, if not top-notch, but not completely behind.</p><p>5. The engine, gearbox and stacked battery have made rapid progress in the past two years, which is quite amazing. Haval H, F series, WEY, pickup truck several models are also abundant. Now, Russia, Chongqing, Rizhao, Taizhou and Beam are added to the production capacity, which has achieved contrarian expansion. However, there is no obvious change on the liability side, which lays the foundation for the future recovery of automobiles and seizing market share.</p><p>III. Valuation.</p><p>Great Wall has achieved year-on-year growth in sales volume this year. Now the industry is at a trough, and the full-year profit in 2019 is expected to be between 4.5-5 billion RMB. The market value of Hong Kong stocks is now 50 billion HK, totaling about 10PE. If the recovery is true according to the above cyclical framework,</p><p>Then, from 2020 to 2024, the current sales volume of Great Wall is 100w. If the domestic market share can be increased from 4% to 6%, it will be 150w vehicles, with a revenue of 150 billion. In the boom cycle, the net profit margin of Great Wall is 10%, and the profit of performance is 15 billion. Considering the growth and boom cycle, if the market gives 15 times PE, it will be 225 billion.</p><p>Then consider the engine and gearbox to begin to develop the market externally. Foreign expansion (e.g., Russia) has grown faster, and the profit sharing brought by beam cars. In the 2020-2024 cycle, it is still conceivable that the market value of Great Wall Motor can reach 200 billion HK.</p><p>If 200 billion is a reasonable estimate for us, how about the income from now on? Is it easy to calculate?</p><p>———————————————————————————————————————</p><p>Here is another important question of business model revolution to be answered: at present, the energy revolution from fuel to electric can't revolutionize the lives of traditional leading car companies. What I am afraid of is the change of the business model of the whole automobile industry, just like Taobao eliminating small shopping malls and digital eliminating film, that is, I eliminated it, but it is not aimed at you, nor is it because you are not hard enough or good enough.</p><p>For example, TV sets, although the heads have been concentrated after capacity elimination, there are no head enterprises like Gree and Midea in white electricity like air conditioners. In fact, the business model of TV has changed here. Did anyone notice? Emerging TV companies such as Xiaomi and Huawei are starting to make money from TV hardware instead of advertising and Internet additional services (such as video membership, app sharing and IoT services). This is caused by changes in business models, not fierce competition.</p><p>The question of whether the auto industry can still recover. From the perspective of per capita car ownership and huge replacement amount, combined with the logic of share increase, leading car companies can still recover and grow. At present, there is no sign of such business model changes in automobiles. Several new forces are also focusing on the improvement of technology and driving quality such as intelligent interconnection and autonomous driving, and have not seen any signs of great changes in business models. If you find anything, please let me know, just as I selflessly shared this article with you</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211034540d0349er6tk56tyd\"/>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SH601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></p><p>@zhujiu @free old wood @Stocksmall @wzy1218 @suihanzhisongbai @up-up-day-by-day</p><p>@ Today's Topic</p><p></article></body></html></p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why do I vote for Great Wall Motors now? ThinkBig</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy do I vote for Great Wall Motors now? ThinkBig\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金凤一号</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2019-12-06 19:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><article>Source: Snowball App, Author: Jinfeng No.1, (https: / /xueqiu.com/6465851184/136955171)</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211027011d034jvq029t2w99\"/>Automobile is a strong cyclical stock. Let me briefly talk about it from three aspects: cyclical framework, qualitative analysis and valuation:</p><p>1. Period judgment.</p><p>Since the domestic automobile industry peaked in 2016 and began to decline, major automobile enterprises have taken the initiative to destock for survival, and their profitability and valuation levels have experienced a sharp decline. At present, major brokerages generally judge that the automobile industry will recover from 2020, which is a small consensus. Tianfeng's car fans are more quantitative: it is judged that the current is the transition stage from active destocking to passive destocking, that is, the eve of the recovery of the automobile industry.</p><p>The scale of the automobile industry is huge, showing an obvious boom cycle of 3-4 years, and inventory fluctuation is the core of the influence. Looking at past investment performance, grasping cyclical fluctuations is extremely important for automobile investment. We define a complete cycle of cars: active destocking-passive destocking-active adding stock-passive adding stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211027688d034div0lcia0ee\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211028894d034pqk11t7nrf1\"/>Of course, Jinfeng also draws a similar periodic judgment from the temperature curve trend chart of the automobile industry made by himself, but it is more observational:</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211029518d034qerdr5jh72n\"/>However, you have to read this picture, refer to this web link</p><p>At present, the relative temperature of the automobile industry has touched 0℃, and the absolute temperature has touched 100℃. It also shows the current relative valuation (odds) of the automobile industry, the worst profitability, and the characteristics of strong cyclical stocks. So when is the full recovery? I judge probabilistically that it should be when the absolute temperature drastically calls back and converges with the relative temperature.</p><p>2. Qualitative judgment:</p><p>The main logic of my current automobile investment-independent rise and share increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211029863d034fg27rrdm5aw\"/>At present, several phenomena of independence and joint venture are worth talking about:</p><p>1. One is the low-end models, and the independent and joint venture markets have begun to transform. Originally, the joint venture focused on first-and second-tier cities, based on brand and quality. Independent production in the third and fourth lines and townships, focusing on cheapness. Now with inflation, higher income and lower price cuts for mid-to low-end vehicles and the rise of new energy vehicles. Joint venture price reduction began to enter the third and fourth lines and towns, focusing on brand and face. Independence began to be accepted by the first-and second-tier middle class and young people, focusing on cost performance, trend and advanced network intelligence.</p><p>2. In the low-end field of traditional fuel, there is no substantial gap between head autonomy and joint venture in quality and technology, and in the field of new energy, they are equal.</p><p>3. In terms of model update rhythm and network intelligence, due to the long decision-making process, the joint venture has been slightly fatigued compared with head autonomy. The emergence of new car-making forces may bring about huge changes in automobile business model.</p><p>4. In terms of cost control, joint venture has no advantage over autonomy. It can't compare efficiency with independent pure private car companies.</p><p>In this way, independent rise and share increase should be like mobile phones, which is a relatively certain thing, and we are in it, which is happening.</p><p>So which ones to choose in autonomy? Let's choose from the TOP10 and talk about my own qualitative analysis.</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211030279d0341gfk8uxd2w6\"/>1. SAIC, GAC, Dongfeng, BAIC, FAW and Brilliance, except SAIC, have basically never earned any money, and all rely on joint venture blood transfusion. Neither R&D nor technology can completely get rid of the restraint of joint ventures. The above mentions the disadvantages of some changes in the current joint venture brands. If our main logic is independent substitution, it is doomed that these independent brands under the breath of joint ventures will not become bigger and stronger to grab the share of joint ventures. If they happen, they will inevitably be clamped down by the game of interests.</p><p>2. Chang' an has always done an outstanding job independently, but it has never made any money, relying on Ford for blood transfusion. Now that Ford has shown a decline, it will become more difficult for Changan to become independent. At the same time, the state has a plan to load the car assets of Dongfeng and FAW into Changan. In that way, Changan is destined to become bigger but not strong.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>In fact, it is more like a battery company, and it is also its profitable part. At present, the business logic of the whole vehicle and cloud rail is based on subsidies. Like Internet companies, pig hair comes from sheep. However, the sheep chosen by BYD is not an ordinary consumer, but the government, so this model must not be established for a long time. In addition, in terms of debt, BYD really relies on borrowing to survive now, and the debt rolls and repays the interest. When will the profit model of new energy vehicles be established, and whether BYD can sustain it is risky and uncertain.</p><p>4. Geely has a good momentum and a good car. However, the boss's capital is too slippery, with domestic loans and outsourcing, all kinds of guarantees and unclear liabilities. The related party transactions between the group and listed companies are complicated, the stock price is relatively high, and the risk is high.</p><p>So with one stroke, I really have no choice but to choose $<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">Great Wall Motors</a>(02333) $.</p><p>Standing at this point in time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">Great Wall Motors</a>Several shortcomings, I judge to be falsified and made up</p><p>1. Lack of cars, walking on one leg. This doesn't hold up. Nowadays, there is no big technical difference between sedans and SUVs, and the platforms are universal. I believe that if the Great Wall wants to build a car, it will take minutes. It's just that there is not so much difference between cars and SUVs in China now, and some crossovers are even more unclear. It can only be said that at the same cost, Chinese people prefer SUVs with large space, high chassis and good vision. The Great Wall is only profit-oriented and has found this positioning breakthrough. So don't force Lao Wei to build cars in the future. People have said, why do you build cars if they don't make money now? If you want to build, you will also build A00 pure electric Euler.</p><p>2. New energy started late. This view was particularly prominent in 2017, when we spent money on new energy points. At present, because the Great Wall is profit-oriented, it feels that new energy does not rely on subsidies and does not make money, which is indeed a step late on the product side. But research and development and technology have not fallen behind. Recently, the rise of honeycomb energy in the new energy industry also makes me feel a little surprised. This short board has been made up for at present, and there is even a trend of overtaking.</p><p>3. The Great Wall is at the forefront of hydrogen energy. However, this thing is far away, and it can only be used as a long-term logical existence to support the stock price, which is the icing on the cake.</p><p>4. Network intelligence and automatic driving. I was actually more worried about this one. In fact, new car-building forces such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>The rise of XPeng, etc. has no advantage in car manufacturing cost and quality control. The only thing that can be seen is that there are some advantages in network intelligence. After all, it is an Internet gene enterprise. But then I saw Huawei,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>These Internet big coffees have also entered the R&D and development of this field strongly. I think the advantages of new car-making forces in this respect are also worth worrying about. As for the Great Wall, although it is continuously investing in autonomous driving and intelligent interconnection, considering the conservative culture of the Great Wall, I was worried that I would fall behind in this area. However, now that the beam with BMW is on the right track, and the two companies are jointly developed, I feel much more relieved. Let BMW, an international vision<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">luxury</a>Brand manufacturers take this piece, if not top-notch, but not completely behind.</p><p>5. The engine, gearbox and stacked battery have made rapid progress in the past two years, which is quite amazing. Haval H, F series, WEY, pickup truck several models are also abundant. Now, Russia, Chongqing, Rizhao, Taizhou and Beam are added to the production capacity, which has achieved contrarian expansion. However, there is no obvious change on the liability side, which lays the foundation for the future recovery of automobiles and seizing market share.</p><p>III. Valuation.</p><p>Great Wall has achieved year-on-year growth in sales volume this year. Now the industry is at a trough, and the full-year profit in 2019 is expected to be between 4.5-5 billion RMB. The market value of Hong Kong stocks is now 50 billion HK, totaling about 10PE. If the recovery is true according to the above cyclical framework,</p><p>Then, from 2020 to 2024, the current sales volume of Great Wall is 100w. If the domestic market share can be increased from 4% to 6%, it will be 150w vehicles, with a revenue of 150 billion. In the boom cycle, the net profit margin of Great Wall is 10%, and the profit of performance is 15 billion. Considering the growth and boom cycle, if the market gives 15 times PE, it will be 225 billion.</p><p>Then consider the engine and gearbox to begin to develop the market externally. Foreign expansion (e.g., Russia) has grown faster, and the profit sharing brought by beam cars. In the 2020-2024 cycle, it is still conceivable that the market value of Great Wall Motor can reach 200 billion HK.</p><p>If 200 billion is a reasonable estimate for us, how about the income from now on? Is it easy to calculate?</p><p>———————————————————————————————————————</p><p>Here is another important question of business model revolution to be answered: at present, the energy revolution from fuel to electric can't revolutionize the lives of traditional leading car companies. What I am afraid of is the change of the business model of the whole automobile industry, just like Taobao eliminating small shopping malls and digital eliminating film, that is, I eliminated it, but it is not aimed at you, nor is it because you are not hard enough or good enough.</p><p>For example, TV sets, although the heads have been concentrated after capacity elimination, there are no head enterprises like Gree and Midea in white electricity like air conditioners. In fact, the business model of TV has changed here. Did anyone notice? Emerging TV companies such as Xiaomi and Huawei are starting to make money from TV hardware instead of advertising and Internet additional services (such as video membership, app sharing and IoT services). This is caused by changes in business models, not fierce competition.</p><p>The question of whether the auto industry can still recover. From the perspective of per capita car ownership and huge replacement amount, combined with the logic of share increase, leading car companies can still recover and grow. At present, there is no sign of such business model changes in automobiles. Several new forces are also focusing on the improvement of technology and driving quality such as intelligent interconnection and autonomous driving, and have not seen any signs of great changes in business models. If you find anything, please let me know, just as I selflessly shared this article with you</p><p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20191206211034540d0349er6tk56tyd\"/>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SH601633\">Great Wall Motors</a></p><p>@zhujiu @free old wood @Stocksmall @wzy1218 @suihanzhisongbai @up-up-day-by-day</p><p>@ Today's Topic</p><p></article></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2019120621103518f35548&s=b\">金凤一号</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98d33d3369990730a901b19fedfe1d4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2019120621103518f35548&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"1989417490","content_text":"来源：雪球App，作者： 金凤一号，（https://xueqiu.com/6465851184/136955171），汽车是强周期股，我从周期框架、定性分析、估值三方面简单讲讲：一、周期判断。国内汽车产业从2016年见顶开始衰退以来，各大整车企业主动去库存求生，盈利能力和估值水平都经历了大幅下跌。当前，各大券商普遍判断汽车行业从2020年开始复苏，算是一个小共识。天风的汽车风扇更加定量一些：判断当前是，从主动去库存到被动去库存的过渡阶段，也即汽车业复苏前夜。汽车产业规模庞大，呈现明显的 3-4 年的景气周期，库存波动是影响的核心。放眼过往投 资表现，把握周期波动对汽车投资异常重要。我们定义一个汽车完整周期:主动去库存— 被动去库存—主动加库存—被动加库存。当然，金凤从自己做的汽车产业温度曲线走势图也得出类似的周期判断，不过更具观察性：不过这个图得会看，参考这篇网页链接从当前看，汽车产业相对温度已经触及了0℃，绝对温度触及了100℃，冰火两重天。也展现了汽车业现在相对估值到底（赔率），盈利能力最差的现状，强周期股特性。那什么时候完全复苏呢？我概率上判断，应该在绝对温度剧烈回调，跟相对温度汇合的时候。二、定性判断：我当前汽车投资的主逻辑——自主崛起，份额提升。当前自主和合资的几个现象值得说说：1、一个是中低端车型，自主和合资的市场开始发生转化现象。原先合资主打一二线城市、以品牌和品质立足。自主在三四线和乡镇生产，主打便宜。现在随着通胀、收入提高和中低端车降价以及新能源车崛起。合资减配降价开始进入三四线和乡镇，主打品牌和面子。自主开始被一二线中产和年轻人接受，主打性价比、潮流和网联智能先进性。2、在传统燃油中低端领域，头部自主和合资在品质和技术上已无实质差距，在新能源领域，不分伯仲。3、在车型更新节奏和网联智能方面，合资由于决策流程长，与头部自主相比，已略显疲态。造车新势力的出现，更是可能带来汽车商业模式的巨大变化。4、在成本控制上，合资与自主比也无优势。与自主纯民营车企无法比效率。这么看，自主崛起，份额提升，应该是像手机一样，是一个比较确定的事，而且我们身在其中，正在发生。那么自主里选哪些？我们从TOP10里选，讲讲我自己的定性分析。1、上汽、广汽、东风、北汽、一汽、华晨这几个自主，除了上汽，其他的自主基本没挣过钱，全靠合资输血。研发上、技术上都不能完全摆脱合资钳制。上面说了当前合资品牌的一些变化中的劣势，如果我们的主逻辑是自主替代，那么注定这些合资鼻息下的自主品牌不会做大做强去抢合资份额，如果发生，必然会受到利益博弈下的钳制。2、长安自主算一直做的出类拔萃的，但也一直没赚过钱，靠福特输血。如今福特已显颓势，长安自主也就会变得更艰难。同时国家有把东风、一汽的轿车资产装进长安的规划，那样的，长安自主注定能做大但做不强。3、比亚迪其实更像一个电池企业，也是其能盈利的部分。整车和云轨商业逻辑目前建立在补贴上，像互联网企业一样，猪毛出在羊身上。不过比亚迪选的这只羊，不是普通的消费者，是政府，所以这模式肯定是长期不成立的。另外，债务上，比亚迪现在真的是靠借债度日，债滚债还息。新能源汽车盈利模式具体什么时候能够成立，比亚迪能不能撑住都是风险高，不确定的事情。4、吉利势头很好，车也不错。但老板资本玩的太溜，内贷外购，各种担保，负债说不清楚，集团和上市公司关联交易复杂，股价相对高位，风险较高。所以一划拉，我实在是没得选，只能选$长城汽车(02333)$ 了。站在这个时点上，长城汽车的几个短板，我判断是证伪和补齐了1、缺少轿车，单腿走路。这个不成立。现在轿车和SUV上没什么大的技术差别，平台也通用。我相信长城要想造轿车，分分钟的事。只是现在轿车和SUV在国内没那么大的区分了，一些跨界车更是分不清楚。只能说，在一样的成本下，国人更喜欢空间大、底盘高、视野好的SUV，长城只是以盈利为导向，找准了这个定位突破而已。所以以后别再逼着老魏造轿车了，人家都说了，现在轿车不赚钱为啥要造？要造也去造A00级纯电欧拉了。2、新能源起步晚。这个观点在2017年尤为突出，当年还花钱买了新能源积分。目前看，长城因为盈利为导向，觉得新能源不靠补贴不赚钱确实在产品端晚了一步。但研发和技术上没有落下。最近蜂巢能源在新能源界拔地崛起，也令我觉得有些惊艳。这个短板目前补上了，甚至有反超的趋势。3、氢能源这块，长城算走在前列。不过这个东西遥遥无期，只能作为长期逻辑存在对股价进行支撑，锦上添花。4、网联智能、自动驾驶。这块其实我比较担忧过。其实造车新势力如蔚来、小鹏等的崛起，在造车成本和品控端毫无优势，唯一能看到就是在网联智能这块有些优势，毕竟是互联网基因的企业。但后来我看到华为、百度这些互联网大咖也强势进入这个领域的研发开发。我觉得造车新势力在这方面的优势也值得担忧了。对于长城来说，虽然目前在自动驾驶、智能互联这块也在持续投入，但考虑到长城的保守文化，我曾经担忧过会在这块落后。不过现在和宝马的光束走上正轨了，两家共同研发，我就放心多了。让宝马这个国际视野的豪华品牌生产商带着，这块即使不会拔尖但不至于完全落后。5、发动机、变速箱、叠拼电池这几大块，这两年进步神速，相当惊艳。哈弗H、F系列、WEY、皮卡几个车型也很丰富。产能上现在加上俄罗斯、重庆、日照、泰州、光束，实现了逆势扩张。但负债端没有明显变化，为将来汽车复苏，抢占市场份额，奠定了基础。三、估值。长城今年从销量上看已经是实现同比增长。现在行业低谷，2019年全年利润预计在45-50亿RMB之间，港股现在500亿HK的市值，合计10PE左右。如果真按上文的周期框架复苏，那么 2020-2024年，长城当前的销量是100w，如果国内市占率能从4%提升到6%的话，将是150w辆，1500亿的营收。景气周期，长城的净利率为10%，业绩150亿的利润。考虑到增长和景气周期，市场给15倍PE的话，是2250亿。再考虑到发动机、变速箱开始对外开发市场。国外拓展（如俄罗斯）增长较快，以及光束汽车带来的利润分成。2020-2024这个周期里，长城汽车市值能上到2000亿HK还是可以畅想的。如果2000亿是我们得一个合理预计，那从现在算起，收益怎么样，好算吧？———————————————————————————————————————这里还有一个重要商业模式革命的问题需要回答：目前看从燃油到电动的能源革命，革不了传统龙头车企的命。怕的是整个汽车产业商业模式的变化，就像淘宝消灭小商场，数码消灭胶卷那样，也即我消灭了，却不是针对你，也不是因为你不够努力不够好。比如电视机，虽然经过产能淘汰头部集中了，但却没像空调这样的白电出现格力、美的这样的头部企业。这里其实是电视的商业模式变化了。大家发现没？新兴电视企业如小米、华为等，开始不赚电视硬件的钱了，而是赚广告和互联网附加服务（如视频会员、app分成、IoT服务）的钱。这是商业模式变化造成的，不是竞争激烈造成的。汽车业还能不能复苏的问题。从人均拥车量和巨大保有置换量上看，结合份额提升的逻辑，龙头车企是还能复苏增长的。目前看，汽车这块会发生这样的商业模式变化还没有苗头。几个造成新势力也是主打智能互联和自动驾驶等科技和驾驶品质的提升，没看到商业模式巨变的苗头。如果您有所发现，请及时告诉我，就像我无私分享此文给您一样。长城汽车@朱酒 @自由老木头@Stocksmall @wzy1218 @岁寒知松柏 @up-up-day-by-day@今日话题","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}