Risk appetite improved on election night without a broad market turn
The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.61 per cent on Tuesday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.35 per cent as technology shares recovered from the previous session's decline. Democrats recorded early progress in several important Senate races, but control of both chambers remained unresolved. The result could influence technology regulation, taxation, AI data-centre approvals and government spending, yet markets did not make a large bet on one political outcome. US-Iran negotiations also remained divided. Iran continued to link seven conditions to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the US response had not closed the gap. WTI crude fell 1.56 per cent and Brent declined 1.82 per c
The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 1.37 per cent on Monday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.52 per cent. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested in the US midterm election. A change in congressional control could alter expectations for taxation, technology regulation, AI data-centre approvals and government spending. The election was not the only reason technology shares fell. Oracle lost 8.78 per cent, AMD fell 7.59 per cent and Intel declined 8.97 per cent as investors continued to reduce exposure to companies associated with heavy AI investment. The result may shape the policy path, but companies still need to prove that investment can produce profit an
Technology de-risking put cash returns at the centre of the debate
The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 1.42 per cent on Thursday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.30 per cent. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ closed down 4.25 per cent and fell about another 7 per cent after its results. Microsoft slipped just 0.16 per cent, while Meta gained 1.96 per cent. Companies making large AI investments were no longer trading as one group. Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of $201.9 billion, up 12 per cent, and earnings of $1.89 a share. AWS revenue grew 39 per cent to $46.0 billion, while operating income rose 55 per cent to $17.8 billion. The issue was cash generation: trailing 12-month free cash flow s
Cloud Growth Wasn't Enough. Cash Flow Split Microsoft and Alphabet.
The Federal Reserve held rates as technology shares edged higher The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.60 per cent on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent. The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. The two dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated, offering no clear signal of imminent easing. The indices moved little during the regular session. The more important change came after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported strong cloud growth, but Microsoft gained about 4 per cent in extended trading while Alphabet f
Hardware Led the Bounce. Big Tech Still Has to Prove It.
QQQ rose while three large platforms declined The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.11 per cent on Monday, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ rose 0.71 per cent. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ fell 0.97 per cent, $Apple(AAPL)$ lost 1.10 per cent and Meta declined 1.88 per cent in the same session. The indices closed higher, but this was not a rally driven by all the large platforms together. Semiconductors and higher-beta growth shares were stronger. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rose 5.21 pe
Big Tech Earnings Will Test the Returns on AI Spending
The market: technology shares await earnings and the Federal Reserve The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ slipped 0.01 per cent to US$704.40 on Friday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.52 per cent to US$759.97. After the previous session's sharp technology sell-off, the indices did not immediately choose a new direction. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and several storage companies report between Wednesday and Thursday, while the Federal Reserve decision is due at 2am Beijing time on 29 October. Earnings, cash flow and interest rates will all reset the value assigned to AI assets within a narrow window. The prevailing expectation is for the Federal Reserve to keep its 3.75 per cent
The Number That Wasn't the Story: SpaceX's First Profit and the Merger That May Change Everything
The indices: Dow up, Nasdaq flat, a split that maps onto earnings week The three indices diverged on Tuesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 1.02 per cent to 52,495.88; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent to 7,712.57; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ was nearly unchanged, closing down 0.02 per cent at 26,424.82. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.12 per cent. The Dow–Nasdaq split tracks the shape of this week's reporting calendar: technology names started spreading risk before the numbers are in, some moving forward, some pulling back. Memory: the CXMT overhang still has not cleared