To The Moon

It wasn't just Switzerland's Partners Group capping redemptions at 5% on their flagship fund that should have you worried. The whole alternative asset class broke together this week, and the public market tape is ugly: Ares ($ARES): -15% Carlyle ($CG): -12% Blackstone ($BX): -12% Apollo ($APO): -11% KKR ($KKR): -7% This synchronized shellacking across the mega-cap private equity giants is more than just a bad week on the markets—it is a massive leading indicator. When firms that thrive entirely on leverage, transaction velocity, and timely exits start wobbling in tandem, the canaries in the coal mine aren't just singing; they are dropping dead. The Death of Paper Marks & The Only Metric That Matters (DPI) For the last few years, PE shops have been marking their own homework, keeping po

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If you invest in Singapore or Hong Kong, you enjoy a massive structural advantage: 0% tax on dividends. Because of this, local investors often view dividends as "free money." But even when Uncle Sam or the taxman isn't taking a cut, paying out a dividend completely changes how a stock compounds. Let’s look at the math when a company earns $100 in profit and has to decide what to do with it. Watch What Happens to Each Half Assume the companys stock trades at a premiumsay, 4 times its book value (the net value of its physical assets). This is common for high-quality businesses with strong moats.  The $40 Dividend: Thanks to the local tax laws, you get the full $40. No tax drag. But what happens when you try to reinvest it? To buy back into the same company, you have to pay the market pr

With this kind of extreme crowding in a sharp rally, we are not looking to chase the stock.We are looking at the price the market is charging for the earnings move.The market is pricing in a substantial earnings move—around 13-15% implied for the immediate post-earnings reaction. This is derived from the at-the-money straddle pricing for the June 26 weekly options, reflecting elevated implied volatility near 100-110% IV rank. Historical post-earnings moves for Micron have averaged closer to 8-10% in recent quarters, meaning the options market is charging a premium of roughly 40-50% above the typical realized volatility. With such heavy call buying and the stock already in a sharp rally (up significantly YTD on AI/HBM demand), much of the bullish narrative appears priced in. The asymmetry i

For over a decade, the Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) playbook was gospel: transition to the cloud, lock users into a high-margin subscription ecosystem, scale via per-seat licensing, and enjoy predictable, recurring revenue. This model engineered some of the greatest bull runs in market history. But in 2026, the narrative of perpetual SaaS growth is facing a severe structural crisis. ​A massive software correction has erased an estimated $1 trillion to $2 trillion in sector value. The catalyst is a profound shift in investor psychology: fear that generative AI and autonomous agentic systems will cannibalize the traditional subscription model. When an AI agent can handle complex, multi-step workflows in seconds, the economic logic of paying premium monthly fees for dozens of human software "

While the crowd argues endlessly about AI valuations and crypto cycles, they are completely missing the tectonic shift occurring in the asset sitting inside every "safe" portfolio on earth: Bonds. We just witnessed the end of a 40-year secular bull market in fixed income. The 1981 top printed 14% yields; the 2020 bottom printed 0%. That massive tailwind ended in a single Covid panic. Covid was the ultimate turn. Rates hit zero, the system flooded itself with liquidity, and the 40-year bull in bonds quietly ended the exact moment everyone felt rescued. The Death of Beta, The Return of Alpha This is Soros-style reflexivity in action. For four decades, falling yields lifted every asset. It convinced everyone yields would drop forever, which lifted assets again. Belief and reality reinforced e

We’ve all been tracking the insane AI hype, but the collateral damage is finally hitting our wallets. Tim Cook just openly admitted that price hikes across Apple’s hardware lineup are now "unavoidable." Let that sink in. Apple has arguably the most ruthless, high-volume supply chain leverage on the planet. If they can’t bully suppliers into absorbing cost surges anymore, every other PC, smartphone, and component maker stands zero chance. This isn't just another standard "boom-and-bust" crypto-mining type shortage. This is a permanent, structural shift on the factory floors, and it’s creating a massive bottleneck called "memflation." The TL;DR on why this is happening: The AI Wafer Penalty: The "Big Three" memory makers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) are aggressively moving factory capacity aw

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