Obigoot

Disciplined options trader: Daily cash-secured put selling for consistent premiums

    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-31 07:21
      Last Night’s “Black Friday” on Wall Street: Tech Got Crushed, and the AI Trade Just Got a Reality Check What a session. Overnight (U.S. Friday close, Oct 30), the market delivered a proper Black Friday for anyone heavily long tech and AI names. This wasn’t a broad panic — it was a focused, brutal repricing of the AI spend story. The Numbers S&P 500: –1.8% to 7,580 (worst day since June) Nasdaq Composite: –2.9% to 25,437 Dow: –1.1% to 51,770 Russell 2000: –1.7% The damage was concentrated. NVIDIA ($NVDA) dropped around 4–5%, AMD ($AMD) got hit harder (roughly –11%), and the real bloodbath was Intel ($INTC) — down nearly 29%, its worst single day since 1974. Amazon ($AMZN) also felt the pain after its results. Why It Happened Two catalysts landed almost simultaneously: Intel’s guidance d
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-31 05:45
      Wall Street just got a reality check. The Nasdaq took a solid hit on Friday, dropping nearly 3 percent. The broader market followed, with the S&P 500 and Dow also finishing in the red. Big tech and chip stocks led the slide after some disappointing earnings and growing worries about how much companies are spending on AI. Intel had a particularly rough day. Markets do this from time to time. One day everything feels unstoppable, the next day investors hit the brakes. History shows these dips rarely last forever, but they sure make the ride more interesting. Anyone else checking their portfolio with one eye closed this weekend? Looking ahead to Monday, the tech sector is likely to open under pressure as traders continue digesting those earnings and the broader AI spending concerns. Chipm
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-30 18:39
      Wall Street woke up cranky this morning. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$   just dropped a $42B free-cash-flow bomb while still spending heavily on AI ($220B capex for the year). AWS is flying (+39%), but investors are side-eyeing the bill. $Intel(INTC)$   got wrecked — down about 25% premarket after weak PC guidance. Data-center AI is strong, but the rest of the chip party feels the hangover. And the Fed? Still looking hawkish. Strong GDP plus sticky inflation means markets are bracing for possible more rate pressure later. Tech is getting a reality check today. Who’s buying the dip and who’s running for cover?
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-30
      Post-Market Drama: Why Is the Market Dropping Right Now?  If you opened your stock app after the 4 am closing bell and wondered why the sea of green suddenly turned deep red, you aren't alone. Intel (INTC) just dropped its earnings report, and after-hours trading is taking a sharp nose-dive.   Here is the quick breakdown of what’s happening, why it feels so dramatic, and how it mirrors what we saw with Alphabet (Google). 1. What Happened with Intel? Intel actually beat expectations on both revenue ($16.5B) and earnings ($0.52/share vs $0.39 expected) for the last quarter.   So why did the stock plunge ~20% after hours? The dreaded forward guidance. Wall Street doesn't care as much about where you’ve been; it cares about where you're going. Intel warned that Q4 reve
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-29
      $Alphabet(GOOG)$  Google just got smacked ~10% after earnings. Asia market woke up, saw the numbers, and collectively hit the sell button like it was Black Friday for panic. Why the plunge? Here’s the TLDR version: Search ads (the cash cow) slowed more than expected. Revenue from search came in light. Google’s own AI Mode (the chatty answer thing) is starting to nibble at traditional search results, which means fewer high-paying ad clicks. Investors hate anything that looks like the golden goose is getting a diet. Massive AI spending turned free cash flow deeply negative. Capex hit around $51 billion in the quarter. Free cash flow went -$9.1 billion (worse than expected). Second straight quarter of burning cash. Markets currently freak o
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-28
      Markets today feel like a three-way tug-of-war  AI and chips are throwing a party, the Fed is hitting pause, and oil is crashing the vibe. SK Hynix just dropped absolute monster numbers — first-ever quarter over 100 trillion won in revenue and an eye-watering ~80% operating margin, powered by AI memory demand. On top of that, Broadcom locked in a $63 billion financing package to supply Anthropic with chips and networking gear. The AI buildout is still very much alive, and semiconductor stocks are feeling it. Meanwhile the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady today (3.75–4.00% range). All eyes shift to Kevin Warsh’s press conference for any signal on whether more hikes are still on the table before year-end. Sticky inflation (hello, oil) means the tone matters a lot. Speaking of
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-27
      Today’s market is giving main-character energy… and also a little chaos. First, the numbers: Durable goods orders jumped 1.8% in September — stronger than expected. Transportation led the charge (+4.6%), while core capital goods orders rose a cooler 0.5%. Shipments of those core goods, though? Up 1.2%. Translation: companies are still ordering and actually receiving the expensive stuff, a lot of it tied to the AI build-out. Second, the plot twist: Anthropic filed its IPO paperwork and suddenly the AI trade woke up from its recent sulk. Chip stocks threw a mini party. Nvidia and friends said “we’re back… for now.” Third, the cliffhanger: The Fed starts its two-day meeting today. Rate decision drops tomorrow. Markets are basically yelling “please just hold,” but with firm data and sky-high A
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-27
      Rollercoaster mode: ACTIVATE! If you’ve been looking at your tech portfolio recently, you might be wondering if the AI hype train just derailed. Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom, and friends took a bit of a tumble! Before anyone panics and sells their GPU collection, let’s unpack what’s actually happening: 1. First time? (Spoiler: It’s not!) If you think this is the first time AI and memory stocks have tanked, welcome to tech investing! Even during mega bull runs, these stocks regularly pull back 20% to 30%. It’s not a bug; it’s a standard feature. AI giants like Nvidia have survived dozens of these "shake-outs" on their way up, and memory chipmakers take investors on this exact wild ride all the time. 2. The Memory Market is the ultimate Drama Queen Memory stocks (DRAM, NAND, HBM) are historicall
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-26
      CoreWeave ($CRWV) Breakdown: Tech Rocket vs. Debt Machine  Thinking of buying the drop on CoreWeave? Here is what the numbers actually show: The Numbers (Fact Sheet) Current Stock Price: ~$52 – $53 per share (down 60%+ from peak) Market Cap: ~$29.9 Billion Q2 2026 Revenue: $2.58 Billion (+112% YoY)   Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: $12.4B – $13.2B Contracted Backlog: $104 Billion+ Total Debt Load: ~$72 Billion (vs. ~$77B total assets) Quarterly Net Loss: -$626 Million (driven by ~$640M in interest expenses alone)   Is it Oversold Right Now? Yes, on pure revenue growth: Trades at ~2.3x 2026 revenue despite 100%+ YoY growth and a massive $104B backlog. No, on financial balance sheet risk: The market is discounting the stock due to a $2.5B+ annual debt servicing load
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    • ObigootObigoot
      ·10-24

      Bull or Bear Market now?

      Your portfolio thinks it’s diversified. Your risk budget knows better.  Semiconductors are only ~13% of the global stock market by weight… …but they’re eating ~20% of the entire risk capital. Tech overall? 28% of the index, 40% of the risk. That’s not diversification. That’s a high-beta AI casino wearing a passive-index costume. Low vol made everyone lever up. VaR models said “more size, king.” Now any shock → first thing sold = the chips. Vol rises → more selling → more vol. Snowball goes brrr. Fundamentals can be fine. Positioning doesn’t care. When 1/5 of global risk lives in semis, every wiggle becomes a forced-liquidation party. Welcome to 2026: the market is a semiconductor ETF with extra steps. Manage the risk, or the risk manages you. Do not over leverage.
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      Bull or Bear Market now?
     
     
     
     

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