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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2024-10-20
$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-21
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-19
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Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks
摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美
Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-17
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"Inflation" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night
香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议
"Inflation" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-16
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One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions
13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持T
One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-14
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CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.
最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。
CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-12
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-10
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高明兴_8399
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2022-02-06
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CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday
核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经
CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday
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高明兴_8399
高明兴_8399
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2022-02-01
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Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.
农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：
Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US91282CJE21.BOND\">$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$</a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US91282CJE21.BOND\">$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$</a> ","text":"$美国中期国债 5.000% 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07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154007444","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154007444","content_text":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美股连续第二周下滑俄乌局势和加息前景仍在主导市场情绪，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌超1%，美股市场连续第二周录得下跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.68%，报34,079.18点；标普500指数跌0.72%，报4,348.87点；纳斯达克指数跌1.23%，报13,548.07点。热门中概股收盘普跌，知乎跌超12%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%热门中概股集体下挫，阿里巴巴跌4.37%，京东跌3.61%，微博跌5.16%，拼多多跌6.05%，哔哩哔哩跌6.19%，百度跌5.22%，新东方跌3.18%，网易跌1.32%，腾讯音乐跌5.68%，爱奇艺跌6.58%，滴滴跌5.40%，知乎跌超12%，满帮跌11.34%。WTI原油期货收跌0.8%，本周下跌2.2%原油期货价格周五收跌，使其周跌幅扩大至2%以上。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌69美分，跌幅近0.8%，收于每桶91.07美元。本周近月WTI合约下跌2.2%。黄金期货收跌0.1%，本周上涨3.1%创9个月来最大周涨幅黄金期货周五收低。在乌克兰危机推动下，金价周四升至八个月以来的最高收盘价，帮助其本周创下九个月以来的最大单周涨幅。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1899.80美元。本周黄金期货价格上涨3.1%，是2021年5月以来的最大单周涨幅。欧股收盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌1.46%德国DAX指数跌1.46%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.94%。国际宏观美联储鸽派官员呼吁实质性调整政策，纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性美联储最鸽派的官员之一呼吁“实质性调整”货币政策，但淡化了激进紧缩的必要性，这是第二位反对下月加息50基点的美联储官员。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans和纽约联储行长John Williams都明确给出了将在3月15-16日会议上加息25个基点的信号，但核心官员对最终需要降息多少仍持开放态度。美联储理事布雷纳德：在3月份会议上启动一系列加息是合适的美联储理事布雷纳德表示，美联储已经准备好在下个月加息，并在未来的几次会议上决定开始缩减资产负债表。“鉴于我们已经看到了非常强劲的数据，我的确预计，在下一次会议上启动一系列加息是合适的，” 布雷纳德周五在芝加哥大学布斯商学院于纽约主办的一次会议的小组讨论中表示。美联储宣布全面的交易限制，以防再度发生道德丑闻美联储正式对央行官员的投资和交易行为采取严厉而全面的限制，以防再次发生去年那种让美联储蒙羞的道德丑闻。这些变动以法规形式确定了去年10月宣布的限制主动交易的指导方针，禁止买卖个股，并提高决策者和高级工作人员的披露要求。拜登签署临时拨款法案，避免美国联邦政府停摆美国总统拜登正式签署了美国国会参议院17日晚间通过的临时拨款法案，确保联邦政府有足够资金继续运转到3月11日，暂时避免了联邦政府停摆的窘境。公司新闻报道称SpaceX按1:10拆股，为该公司首次股票拆分据报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在以1：10的比例拆分其普通股，该公司的估值已飙升至超过1000亿美元。Roku和特斯拉等股票下跌让木头姐的投资组合再受打击木头姐Cathie Wood刚刚形容自己的投机性科技板块策略是一个“深度价值”投资组合，里面很多被低估的公司，但又一个动荡的交易日让她持有的一些大牌股票跌得更深了。美国股市周五下跌，2.2万亿美元期权到期放大了股市跌幅。Wood钟爱的Roku、特斯拉等股票也未能幸免，其中Roku暴跌22%，特斯拉下跌2%。莫德纳宣布启动疱疹病毒、癌症mRNA疫苗研发生物医药企业莫德纳（Moderna）发布公告称，公司新增了三个mRNA疫苗开发项目，将使用与Spikevax新冠疫苗相同的技术。根据公告披露，三个新项目中，mRNA-1608候选疫苗旨在预防二型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）；mRNA-1468疫苗用于降低水痘带状疱疹病毒的发病率；mRNA-4359用来测试这项技术治疗癌症的应用前景。通用汽车向NHTSA申请批准部署自动驾驶汽车通用汽车和其自动驾驶技术子公司Cruise周五表示，已向美国监管机构申请建造和部署一款自动驾驶汽车。这款汽车名为Cruise Origin，特点是不具备方向盘或刹车踏板等人工控制的部件。通用汽车和Cruise于2020年10月首次披露Cruise Origin，并计划在几个月内获得美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的批准。重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%英特尔股价周五收跌5.32%，原因是该公司首席执行官Pat Gelsinger周四证实，代号为Granite Rapids的服务器芯片将从2023年推迟至2024年，未来两年将不得不投入大量资金才能追上竞争对手。Granite Rapids是英特尔首款使用超紫外光刻技术的服务器处理器，这是英特尔追赶台积电和其他顶级芯片制造商所需的关键技术。爱马仕Q4财报不如预期，产能设限影响业绩当地时间周五，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布四季度及全年财报。数据显示，公司四季度总营收达到23.8亿欧元，以不变汇率计算同比增长11%，在奢侈品供不应求的大背景下逊于分析师预期的12%。究其原因，主要是皮具及马具部门营收下降逾5%，即便其他业务大都交出超过20%的增速，也抵不过第一大业务板块营收下降带来的影响。爱马仕CEO阿克塞尔·杜马斯透露，产能有限限制了公司业绩增长，做一个爱马仕的皮包需要15个小时的工序，尽管集团每年会招募400名工匠，但考虑到需要大量时间培训，产能的增长十分有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094889900,"gmtCreate":1645109172189,"gmtModify":1676533998095,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094889900","repostId":"1125455457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125455457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645078408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125455457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125455457","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125455457","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议纪要表示:“与会者认为，鉴于美联储目前持有的证券规模较高，大幅缩减资产负债表规模可能是合适的。”美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强烈暗示最早将在3月份上调利率。尽管会议纪要的语气看似强硬，但股市在会议纪要公布后收复了失地。道富环球投资管理公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席经济学家西蒙娜•莫卡塔(Simona Mocuta)表示:“市场将这些言论解读为相对于预期较为温和。”过去几周，市场一直处于紧张状态，因通胀飙升，加上部分美联储官员(尤其是圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德)发表的强硬言论，令交易员预计美联储今年将加息七次，每次0.25个百分点。会议纪要公布后，市场预期有所回落，目前美联储上调基准利率1.75个百分点的几率为50%。“最近有太多的炒作，我认为每个人都准备好了纪要会采取非常强硬的语气，”莫卡塔说。除了利率外，该委员会还制定了如何开始剥离其近9万亿美元资产负债表的程序。该资产负债表主要由美联储为压低利率和刺激经济增长而购买的债券组成。3月也是资产购买计划结束的月份，不过一些与会成员希望能更快结束。会议纪要称，\"几位与会者表示，他们倾向于更早结束委员会的净资产购买计划，以发出更强烈的信号，表明委员会致力于降低通胀。\"委员们讨论如何削减资产负债表。最有可能的方法是，不再投资到期债券。 不过，一些官员说，可能有必要直接出售抵押贷款，以使资产负债表中只持有美国国债。不过自此次会议以来，最新的通胀数据显示，物价正以40年来最快的速度上涨。美联储的目标是平均通胀率在2%左右，官员们也承认，政策需要收紧以降低价格。会议纪要显示，通货膨胀在会议中占据了大量的讨论内容。这个词在纪要中被提到了73次，成员们表示，价格上涨比他们预期的更强劲、更持久。文件称:“与会者指出，最近的通胀数据继续显著超过委员会的长期目标，高通胀持续的时间超过了他们的预期，这反映了与疫情和经济重启有关的供需失衡。”联邦公开市场委员会成员指出，通胀开始蔓延到受疫情影响的行业之外，并进入更广泛的经济领域。与会者承认，高通胀是美国家庭的负担，尤其是那些最无力支付更高价格购买基本商品和服务的家庭。会议还讨论了金融稳定问题。官员们指出，风险来自于资产价格的上涨以及加密资产价格的快速上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094031421,"gmtCreate":1645018868277,"gmtModify":1676533986856,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094031421","repostId":"1190123173","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190123173","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644978386,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190123173?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-16 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190123173","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持T","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>13F holdings reports are an important channel for understanding Wall Street investment trends. What were the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bridgewater in the fourth quarter of 2021? Which stocks did they increase or decrease their holdings in?</p><p>The chart below lists the top 5 holdings, increases, and decreases of the top ten institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's take a look!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-16 10:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>13F holdings reports are an important channel for understanding Wall Street investment trends. What were the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bridgewater in the fourth quarter of 2021? Which stocks did they increase or decrease their holdings in?</p><p>The chart below lists the top 5 holdings, increases, and decreases of the top ten institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's take a look!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95414d8312d8ee2d8fac46fd621f61e7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190123173","content_text":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持Top5, 让我们来一探究竟吧！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095136982,"gmtCreate":1644849246279,"gmtModify":1676533967550,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095136982","repostId":"1161517578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161517578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金宏观研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金宏观","id":"1083231139","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc"},"pubTimestamp":1644796491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161517578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161517578","media":"中金宏观","summary":"最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161517578","content_text":"美国1月CPI数据再超预期，同比增速达7.5%，创1982年以来最高水平。数据公布后，市场对美联储紧缩的预期显著抬升，利率期货市场反映的3月加息50 bp的概率已超过90%，2022年加息预期次数也已达到7次。但从股市和债市情况来看，投资者仍在犹豫这次美联储紧缩是否仅是“雷声大，雨点小”。我们认为，市场仍然低估了这次美联储紧缩的力度及其潜在影响。投资者习惯于将上一轮美联储紧缩周期（2015—2018年）看作这次紧缩的参照系，但我们对比后发现，这次与上次非常不同。美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议后也提到，“这次的经济与上一轮紧缩时不一样，我们的政策将会反映出这些差别。”这次的不同点在哪呢？最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。我们梳理了1980年以来6轮加息周期的初始条件，我们发现这次与之前几轮都不一样，尤其与上一轮相比差距最大。具体来看：►经济增长与就业方面，上一轮加息始于2015年12月，当时美国经济并不算强，加息前的一个季度GDP同比增速为2.2%，而这次加息前GDP增速高达5.5%。从这个角度看，这次加息更类似于始于1988、1999、2004年的三轮紧缩，加息前GDP增速均超过4%。就业方面，上一轮开启加息时失业率为5.1%，而当前失业率已降至4%的历史低位，这与1999年加息周期更为接近。►通胀方面，2015年加息时，美国核心CPI同比增速只有2%，整体CPI同比增速仅为0.5%（因为油价下跌），非但没有通胀上行风险，甚至还存在通缩的可能。美联储当时选择加息更多是出于对未来通胀上升的“信任”，官员们相信失业率下降终将推升通胀（即菲利普斯曲线框架），因此采取“预防性”加息。反观当下，无论是整体还是核心CPI增速，都远高于2015年，甚至比1980年以来任何一次加息周期都要更高。可以说，眼下是上世纪七十年代以来，美联储首次真正遭遇高通胀的挑战。► 加息节奏方面，在上一轮加息中，美联储遵循“渐近而可预期”（gradual and predictable）的原则：从Taper到加息，再到缩表，每一步都很谨慎，且每一步之间都相差两年。在加息开启后，第一次加息和第二次加息之间甚至还隔了一年之久。对比之下，这次美联储已经没有那么多时间可以等待。去年下半年，美联储在退出宽松时一拖再拖，错过了最好的退出时机。往前看，今年联储加息的次数大概率多于3次，甚至不排除一次性加息50 bp的可能性。我们根据目前市场的预期描绘了这次加息的路径，结果显示路径更接近于次贷危机前的加息周期，而不是上一轮加息。►金融市场方面，上一轮货币紧缩速度慢，加上美股估值相对合理，使股市并没有过多的调整，整体上“风平浪静”。目前美股估值相对较高，对外部环境变化、尤其是利率上升更敏感，想要平稳度过整个加息过程，似乎并不容易。此外，疫情后的低利率环境下，美国非金融企业部门债务迅速扩张，债务占GDP比例从2019年底的76%升至2021年一季度的85%，虽然二季度小幅回落，但仍处于历史高位。如果加息开启后利率显著上行，部分现金流表现较差的公司或面临信用风险暴露。总而言之，本轮联储紧缩可能来势汹汹，简单以上一轮紧缩周期外推可能会严重低估紧缩的力度。我们在报告《通胀爆表，美联储应尽快紧缩》中指出，当前的美国经济就像一辆高速行驶的汽车，如果不刹车，很难慢下来。往前看，美联储应尽快采取行动，比如在3月加息50 bp，并暗示年内有更多次数的加息。除此之外，美联储还应该开启“缩表”。抑制通胀最可靠办法是推高长端利率，而要达到这一目标，最有效的手段就是“缩表”。我们预计开启“缩表”的时间或在三季度，但也不排除提前到二季度的可能性。风险情形下，不排除10年期美债利率突破2.5%，美股仍有调整空间。疫情消退后，美国经济复苏有望继续深化，供给与需求可能共振复苏，如果美联储在三季度“缩表”且态度比较坚决，美债利率或进一步上行。但另一方面，加息过于激进或引发市场对中期经济放缓甚至衰退的担忧，地缘政治冲击加剧也可能抑制风险偏好，限制长端利率上行空间。股市方面，过去十年低利率环境下，部分股票估值扩张幅度较大，股价涨幅较多。如果流动性收紧，无风险利率抬升，将对这些股票的估值产生不利影响。近期美股虽经历了一波调整，但在美债利率上行未结束的情况下，股市或仍有调整空间。现阶段表现较好、受紧缩影响较小的是大宗商品。首先，美联储紧缩本身就是对经济增长强劲的确认，有利于商品。其次，过去两年全球资本开支明显放缓，疫情过后资本开支有望迎来一次全球性的同步反弹，进一步增加对商品的需求（请参考报告《资本开支：全球复苏的第三步》）。当然，美联储紧缩会导致利率上升，抑制企业投资，但这一过程会有时滞，未必在今年上半年发生。总之，我们认为美联储货币紧缩或成为今年全球资产价格定价的主线，对于紧缩的力度，投资者切不可低估。上周回顾：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：美国12月贸易帐为-807亿美元，高于预期的-830亿美元；12月批发销售月度环比增速0.2%，低于预期的1.2%；1月未季调CPI年度同比增速7.5%，高于预期的7.3%；1月季调后CPI月度环比增速0.6%，高于预期的0.5%；1月NFIB小型企业信心指数97.1，低于预期的97.5；至2月5日当周初请失业金人数为22.3万人，低于预期的23万人；2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.7，低于预期的67.5。欧元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数16.6，高于预期的15.2。英国第四季度GDP年度环比增速修正值为6.5%，高于预期的6.4%；12月三个月GDP月度环比增速1%，低于预期的1.1%；12月工业产出月度环比增速0.3%，高于预期的0.1%；12月制造业产出月度环比增速0.2%，高于预期的0.1%。经济事件：2月7日，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话，表示通胀风险正在上升，同时暗示央行货币政策将“逐步转变”[2]。2月9日，美联储理事鲍曼向社区银行家发表讲话，称其对央行数字货币保持\"开放心态\"[3]。2月10日，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话，表示今年的每一次美联储议息会议都有可能加息，并支持加速缩减央行资产负债表[4]。2月11日，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金发表讲话，他预计美联储将\"稳步\"加息，并希望美联储\"相对较快\"地将利率恢复到疫情前的水平[5]。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周二公布美国1月PPI月度环比增速，2月纽约联储制造业指数；欧元区第四季度GDP年度同比增速修正值，第四季度季调后就业人数季度环比增速，12月季调后贸易帐，2月ZEW经济景气指数。周三公布美国12月商业库存月度环比增速，1月零售销售月度环比增速，1月进口物价指数月度环比增速，1月工业产出月度环比增速，2月NAHB房产市场指数；欧元区12月工业产出月度环比增速。周四公布美国1月新屋开工总数年化值，1月营建许可总数，2月费城联储制造业指数，至2月12日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国1月谘商会领先指标月度环比增速，1月成屋销售总数年化值；欧元区12月季调后经常帐。经济事件：周二美联储理事会召开闭门会议，审查并决定放贷比例和贴现率；美国参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔的美联储主席提名进行投票，同时也对其他四名美联储官员的提名进行投票；欧洲央行行长拉加德参加欧洲议会关于该央行2020年年度报告的辩论。周四美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要；欧洲央行公布经济公报。周五2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和美联储理事沃勒分别就美国经济和货币政策前景发表讲话。周六FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一次经济展望虚拟活动上做主旨演讲。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092278349,"gmtCreate":1644643377576,"gmtModify":1676533950498,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092278349","repostId":"2210821529","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092095589,"gmtCreate":1644481798252,"gmtModify":1676533932094,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092095589","repostId":"2210672645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098228791,"gmtCreate":1644153250891,"gmtModify":1676533894612,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557375403451824","idStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098228791","repostId":"2209332881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209332881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644139787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209332881?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 17:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209332881","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday, but the mixed results in liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate significantly. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year. 2) In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Corporate earnings reports turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies are unlikely to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) Expectations for Fed tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, did not ease significantly. On the contrary, they were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the Bank of Europe and the Bank of England, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The US job market has improved significantly but remains tight, and inflation in the Eurozone has unexpectedly risen. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the US job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies remains high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the US job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices. The probability of a wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present, and Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central banks and monetary policy: The Bank of England and the European Union have adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary policy. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy for rate hike at its February policy meeting by a vote of 5 to 4. Following the 15 basis point policy for rate hike last December, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again in rate hike. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced that it would end the reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and should start selling corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkishness exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has seen a significant shift in its stance following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's hawkish speech, abandoning her previously emphasized assertion that \"a rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" may indicate that the ECB's monetary policy has officially begun to shift.</p><p>Looking ahead, the mixed performance of liquidity indicators suggests that asset price volatility will remain significant. The liquidity indicators for the Spring Festival holiday (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) reveal a mixed picture. The \"good news\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) Federal Reserve members are starting to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index is conducive to reducing the external debt pressure on emerging countries, mitigating unnecessary capital outflows, and freeing up more room and time for their domestic monetary policies to maneuver. However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday.</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets rebounded slightly compared to before the holiday, with market investment focusing on energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them,</p><p>Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, far exceeding those of other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year.</p><p>In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%. Earnings reports from companies like Amazon turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies have little forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, have not eased significantly. Expectations of tightening were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the central banks of Europe and the UK, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>US employment improved significantly but remained tight, while Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. US employment data exceeded expectations, while inflation in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant. The United States added 467,000 non-farm payrolls in January, far exceeding market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). Meanwhile, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was revised upward to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in the two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, only 0.5 percentage points lower than 62.7% in March 2020. Looking at the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industry contributed the largest increase. The requirement for vaccination certificates to enter indoor venues in some areas may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to some extent. Although the changes in the household survey sample in January 2021 compared to December 2020 may result in errors in directly comparing the data from the two months, the overall better-than-expected performance of the employment data still shows that the US job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant and is still on the road to steady recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Job vacancies remain high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the U.S. job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job openings in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. Meanwhile, the number of job openings in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Along with the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to rise rapidly. In January 2022, both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%, the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies coupled with high hourly wage growth indicates that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the supply shortage in the US job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high, far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. The Eurozone HICP grew by 5.1% year-on-year in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.4%, and continuing to remain high after reaching 5.0% in December 2020. Looking at the sub-items, energy was the main factor driving up the Eurozone HICP, with energy prices rising by 28.6% year-on-year in January, while unprocessed food prices rose by 5.16% year-on-year. Excluding energy and food factors, the Eurozone core HICP grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from the previous month, but still exceeding market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is currently relatively low. The rapid rise in energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation in the Eurozone, and the increase in energy prices may be related to the continued rise in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, influenced by broader price increases for goods and services, high inflation in the Eurozone is likely to remain high in the first half of the year. However, as energy prices continue to fall, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year and may return to around 1.8% by the end of the year. Because wage growth in the Eurozone is relatively slow, the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is lower in Europe, unlike in the United States and the United Kingdom.</p><p><b>The Bank of England and the European Central Bank all adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary</b></p><p>During the Chinese New Year, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank issued hawkish signals, indicating that global monetary policy is tightening under high inflationary pressures.</p><p>The Bank of England rate hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its February policy meeting, while simultaneously initiating a shrinking balance sheet, showing a more hawkish stance than market expectations. Due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy decision for rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at its February policy meeting. This marks the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has held two consecutive rate hike policy meetings, raising its policy interest rate to 0.5%, following rate hike' 15 basis point decision last December. Despite rate hike meeting market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it would end its reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and initiate the sale of corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. This hawkishness exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the Bank of England's determination to control inflation. At this policy meeting, some officials also proposed a 50bps rate hike, so the Bank of England may continue its rate hike.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its February policy meeting, and its sudden shift completely exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank's attitude has changed dramatically following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day, which far exceeded market expectations. Although the meeting statement was generally in line with expectations, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting speech took a hawkish tone. First, Lagarde stated that the European Central Bank Governing Council is unanimously concerned that high inflation will last longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insisted on her previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" stating that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in tone is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to abandon the word 'temporary,'\" and may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy is about to officially begin to shift. However, even if the European Central Bank begins its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to subsequent changes in Eurozone inflation data.</p><p><b>Mixed liquidity indicators indicate that asset price volatility will remain significant.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, the liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed a mixed picture. The positive news of a potential marginal improvement in global liquidity comes from:</p><p>1) Federal Reserve members are beginning to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. On February 1, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic changed his tune, stating that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive and that he favored three rate hike this year. Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed his disapproval of a 50 basis point increase in rate hike. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly stated that monetary policy should be changed gradually, and the Fed's current monetary policy actions are not lagging behind the curve.</p><p>2) The temporary weakening of the US Dollar Index has freed up more room and time for monetary policy in emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has significant exchange rate weight against the euro and pound sterling, a weaker the US Dollar Index will indirectly boost emerging market commodity prices, reduce the external debt pressure on emerging countries, slow unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more room and time for domestic monetary policy maneuvers.</p><p>However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields is expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from a mid-cycle to a later cycle, and the inflation environment is significantly different from the past. We suggest not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, as the swing range of future Federal Reserve tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of multiple CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CS宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-06 17:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday, but the mixed results in liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate significantly. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year. 2) In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Corporate earnings reports turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies are unlikely to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) Expectations for Fed tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, did not ease significantly. On the contrary, they were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the Bank of Europe and the Bank of England, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The US job market has improved significantly but remains tight, and inflation in the Eurozone has unexpectedly risen. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the US job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies remains high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the US job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices. The probability of a wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present, and Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central banks and monetary policy: The Bank of England and the European Union have adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary policy. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy for rate hike at its February policy meeting by a vote of 5 to 4. Following the 15 basis point policy for rate hike last December, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again in rate hike. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced that it would end the reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and should start selling corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkishness exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has seen a significant shift in its stance following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's hawkish speech, abandoning her previously emphasized assertion that \"a rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" may indicate that the ECB's monetary policy has officially begun to shift.</p><p>Looking ahead, the mixed performance of liquidity indicators suggests that asset price volatility will remain significant. The liquidity indicators for the Spring Festival holiday (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) reveal a mixed picture. The \"good news\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) Federal Reserve members are starting to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index is conducive to reducing the external debt pressure on emerging countries, mitigating unnecessary capital outflows, and freeing up more room and time for their domestic monetary policies to maneuver. However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday.</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets rebounded slightly compared to before the holiday, with market investment focusing on energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them,</p><p>Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, far exceeding those of other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year.</p><p>In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%. Earnings reports from companies like Amazon turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies have little forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, have not eased significantly. Expectations of tightening were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the central banks of Europe and the UK, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>US employment improved significantly but remained tight, while Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. US employment data exceeded expectations, while inflation in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant. The United States added 467,000 non-farm payrolls in January, far exceeding market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). Meanwhile, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was revised upward to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in the two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, only 0.5 percentage points lower than 62.7% in March 2020. Looking at the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industry contributed the largest increase. The requirement for vaccination certificates to enter indoor venues in some areas may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to some extent. Although the changes in the household survey sample in January 2021 compared to December 2020 may result in errors in directly comparing the data from the two months, the overall better-than-expected performance of the employment data still shows that the US job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant and is still on the road to steady recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Job vacancies remain high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the U.S. job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job openings in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. Meanwhile, the number of job openings in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Along with the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to rise rapidly. In January 2022, both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%, the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies coupled with high hourly wage growth indicates that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the supply shortage in the US job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high, far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. The Eurozone HICP grew by 5.1% year-on-year in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.4%, and continuing to remain high after reaching 5.0% in December 2020. Looking at the sub-items, energy was the main factor driving up the Eurozone HICP, with energy prices rising by 28.6% year-on-year in January, while unprocessed food prices rose by 5.16% year-on-year. Excluding energy and food factors, the Eurozone core HICP grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from the previous month, but still exceeding market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is currently relatively low. The rapid rise in energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation in the Eurozone, and the increase in energy prices may be related to the continued rise in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, influenced by broader price increases for goods and services, high inflation in the Eurozone is likely to remain high in the first half of the year. However, as energy prices continue to fall, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year and may return to around 1.8% by the end of the year. Because wage growth in the Eurozone is relatively slow, the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is lower in Europe, unlike in the United States and the United Kingdom.</p><p><b>The Bank of England and the European Central Bank all adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary</b></p><p>During the Chinese New Year, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank issued hawkish signals, indicating that global monetary policy is tightening under high inflationary pressures.</p><p>The Bank of England rate hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its February policy meeting, while simultaneously initiating a shrinking balance sheet, showing a more hawkish stance than market expectations. Due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy decision for rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at its February policy meeting. This marks the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has held two consecutive rate hike policy meetings, raising its policy interest rate to 0.5%, following rate hike' 15 basis point decision last December. Despite rate hike meeting market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it would end its reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and initiate the sale of corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. This hawkishness exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the Bank of England's determination to control inflation. At this policy meeting, some officials also proposed a 50bps rate hike, so the Bank of England may continue its rate hike.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its February policy meeting, and its sudden shift completely exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank's attitude has changed dramatically following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day, which far exceeded market expectations. Although the meeting statement was generally in line with expectations, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting speech took a hawkish tone. First, Lagarde stated that the European Central Bank Governing Council is unanimously concerned that high inflation will last longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insisted on her previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" stating that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in tone is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to abandon the word 'temporary,'\" and may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy is about to officially begin to shift. However, even if the European Central Bank begins its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to subsequent changes in Eurozone inflation data.</p><p><b>Mixed liquidity indicators indicate that asset price volatility will remain significant.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, the liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed a mixed picture. The positive news of a potential marginal improvement in global liquidity comes from:</p><p>1) Federal Reserve members are beginning to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. On February 1, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic changed his tune, stating that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive and that he favored three rate hike this year. Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed his disapproval of a 50 basis point increase in rate hike. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly stated that monetary policy should be changed gradually, and the Fed's current monetary policy actions are not lagging behind the curve.</p><p>2) The temporary weakening of the US Dollar Index has freed up more room and time for monetary policy in emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has significant exchange rate weight against the euro and pound sterling, a weaker the US Dollar Index will indirectly boost emerging market commodity prices, reduce the external debt pressure on emerging countries, slow unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more room and time for domestic monetary policy maneuvers.</p><p>However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields is expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from a mid-cycle to a later cycle, and the inflation environment is significantly different from the past. We suggest not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, as the swing range of future Federal Reserve tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of multiple CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html\">CS宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4270e14fdc3e34096f78e73c39325f97","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","06030":"中信证券","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1564":"中资券商股"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209332881","content_text":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。正文春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments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17:18","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSCEI":"国企指数","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}