To The Moon

$Occidental(OXY)$   Oil is doing its usual thing again: just when the market seems to settle on a story, a new headline rewrites it. Supply worries, demand fears, geopolitics, all pulling in different directions. What gets me is how far the effects reach. It's not only the pump. Shipping, flights, plastics, and groceries all trace back to the same barrel, so even small moves ripple through everything. For energy stocks, it's the same story. Strong prices bring confidence, buybacks, and debt paydown. Weak prices bring caution and a lot of "wait and see"

$Sprott Physical Silver Trust(PSLV)$ Silver check-in: still choppy, still fascinating. Every time I think I've figured out its mood, it does the opposite. The thing I keep coming back to is how many forces tug on it at once. Interest rates, the dollar, factory demand, investor fear, even jewelry and solar. That's a lot of voices for one metal, which is why the price can look so moody. It's also the cheaper cousin of gold, so it tends to attract a lot of everyday investors, and a lot of emotion along with them.

AI news falling on this side, rising on another side, confusing!

Rather take a wait and see approach, everything is just roller coaster ride right now

SK Hynix confirms the demand side. It doesn't tell you much about what's priced in. SanDisk is a NAND pure play, and Hynix is shifting capacity toward HBM, which tightens NAND supply and helps SanDisk's pricing. But the stock has already run hard on that story and NAND has always been the most commodity-like corner of memory. I'm bullish on the cycle, cautious on the multiple. The key question is how much of next year's volume is locked in under long-term contracts versus exposed to spot pricing. Until supply catches up, the cycle can keep going. The risk is that every major producer adds capacity at the same time, and that's usually when pricing turns.

Probably good to rotate from growth to pure fundamentals in the meantime

$Occidental(OXY)$  Another day, another oil headline. Crude keeps proving that nobody really has a handle on where it's going next. What I find interesting about Oxy is how much of the story comes down to one number. When the barrel is strong, the conversation is all about cash flow, buybacks, and paying down debt. When it softens, everyone suddenly gets cautious. Meanwhile, the rest of us just notice it at the pump and in the price of, well, everything. I don't have a big prediction here. Just a reminder that energy stocks are a rollercoaster, and the smartest move might be patience. Curious to see how the next few weeks play out.

Thanks for the insights, I think probably time to take precious metals a lot more seriously.

I guess what really matters is still fundamentals and FCFF, when the hype runs out it’s important to follow the money.

Probably has to be growth stocks, tend to have stronger backing and negotiating power that should hopefully ride through the Longer term