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  ·2021-03-12
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  Is the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in the United States a blessing or a curse?
  正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁
  Is the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in the United States a blessing or a curse?
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22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in the United States a blessing or a curse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150912365","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁","content":"<p><i>The positive side argues that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"American dawn,\" giving the U.S. economy, which is already poised for a period of prosperity, a \"turbocharged boost,\" and significantly improving wealth inequality. Ultimately, Biden will stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who ushered in the great prosperity of the 1980s, becoming an American economic hero. The opposing side argues that with global prices ranging from gasoline to housing prices soaring, and the prices of speculative assets being astonishingly high, investors are increasingly fearful of inflation. Under these circumstances, if the US government pours more fuel into the already warming economy, adding fuel to the fire, it could lead to a sharp rise in inflation and cause a major disaster.</i></p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Congress officially approved a bill to inject $1.9 trillion into the already growing U.S. economy, an unprecedented move. The bill now only has one final step left—sending it to President Biden for signature. Prior to this, Congress had already passed a stimulus package totaling nearly $4 trillion last year during the pandemic.</p><p>However, the White House is clearly not satisfied with this; they also hope to release more trillion-dollar stimulus packages this year, such as a comprehensive upgrade to infrastructure across the United States.</p><p>Given this reality, a nationwide debate has sparked among economists, budget experts, and economic policymakers.</p><p>The positive side argues that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"American dawn,\" giving the U.S. economy, which is already poised for a period of prosperity, a \"turbocharged boost,\" and significantly improving wealth inequality. Ultimately, Biden will stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who ushered in the great prosperity of the 1980s, becoming an American economic hero.</p><p>The opposing side argues that with global prices ranging from gasoline to housing prices soaring, and the prices of speculative assets being astonishingly high, investors are increasingly fearful of inflation. Under these circumstances, if the US government pours more fuel into the already warming economy, adding fuel to the fire, it could lead to a sharp rise in inflation and cause a major disaster.</p><p>Regardless, when Biden signs the new bill on Friday as scheduled, his early economic policy agenda will have a signature moment. However, the country is now beginning to manage its economy in a completely new way, and this may not necessarily lead to a happy outcome.</p><p>“If everything goes well, Biden will become a hero in everyone’s eyes, and he certainly deserves that honor,” analyzed Len Burman, an economist at Syracuse University and one of the founders of the Tax Policy Center. “This is the first time in American history that sufficiently strong stimulus has been provided during a crisis, but the risk is that this stimulus may also prove to be too strong. The threat of inflation is real. If the final result is not satisfactory, at least we will learn some lessons about the consequences of an experiment of this scale.”</p><p>With the accelerated rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the successive lifting and relaxation of lockdown measures in various states, the US economy had already shown many signs of recovery when the upcoming \"American Rescue Plan\" was released.</p><p>In February, the U.S. economy created 379,000 jobs, much to the delight of observers, and it is expected that many more jobs will be created in the near future as bars and restaurants reopen and Americans gradually resume travel.</p><p>Now, as the business community prepares for the economy to gradually return to normal later this year, the CEO confidence index has surged to a seventeen-year high. While the small business confidence figures remain relatively cautious, the upward momentum is also tangible. Throughout the pandemic lockdown, consumers in major economies around the world have accumulated nearly $3 trillion in new cash, which means that once life gradually returns to normal, demand in all areas, from travel to cars to various new products, will rise significantly.</p><p>Of course, under such circumstances, various signs of rising inflation have begun to appear in many parts of the United States, such as gasoline prices skyrocketing and expected to continue rising. Whether it's new or used cars, prices have risen sharply, not to mention the already hot residential market. Under such circumstances, policymakers cannot help but become vigilant, even worried.</p><p>Of course, the most representative examples are high stock prices and the prices of speculative assets such as Bitcoin. With interest rates at historic lows and the Federal Reserve and Congress continuing to inject cash, these gains are likely to continue.</p><p>The stock market continued its surge this week, with the atmosphere of euphoria intensifying. For example, stocks like GameStation, which are a hub for retail investors, and iconic stocks like Tesla, which are sentimentally driven by retail investors, are all seeing their prices surge.</p><p>For some time to come, millions of Americans will receive substantial cash from the stimulus package—federal unemployment benefits, increased child tax deductions, more generous healthcare subsidies, and targeted relief measures for small businesses, especially those owned by people of color and women.</p><p>Progressives applaud all of the above, believing it is significant progress that will not only boost economic growth in the short term, but also help correct the increasingly severe inequality between the rich and the poor during the pandemic.</p><p>Many economists also point out that many Americans still need more help. Currently, the number of jobs in the United States is still about 11 million less than before the outbreak of the pandemic. Although the official unemployment rate is 6.2%, if those who left the labor market during the pandemic—mostly women—are included in the calculations, the figure will be closer to 10%.</p><p>While Republicans have almost unanimously criticized the bailout as too large and wasteful, most economists have taken a much softer stance.</p><p>They point out that while the possibility of the bailout plan being too strong does exist and could very well lead to a rapid rise in prices and force the Fed to rate hike early, impacting the prices of assets such as tech stocks, popular retail stocks, and cryptocurrencies, it may not be a bad thing if these bubbles can be slowly released instead of bursting all at once.</p><p>Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, believes: \"We really have no choice but to provide this level of support, and for the past two decades, inflation has been below normal. Moderately rising inflation is not a bad thing; it's far from being worrying. As for interest rates, they are too low now in any case.\" Investors are not unprepared for higher interest rates and inflation.</p><p>“There is a strong bubble in the market,” Zandi added. “It’s always better to release some air early than to let these bubbles inflate.”</p><p>What Zandi said actually represents the most optimistic expectation for the prospects of the US economy, which is about to be flooded with cash: the market will adjust moderately, interest rates will rise slightly, the unemployment rate will decrease significantly, and the inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. In fact, this is precisely Biden's ideal blueprint.</p><p>However, many economists are not so optimistic. They are worried that once the pandemic ends and life and the economy return to normal, the release of all these funds will significantly increase aggregate demand, while aggregate supply will simply not be able to match it. In this scenario, the prices of various goods and services will surge across the board, forcing the Federal Reserve to rate hike early, and for a consecutive rate hike.</p><p>Strong, continuous rate hike will cause consumers to face a sharp rise in borrowing costs, while their purchasing power is also rapidly shrinking due to inflation. Not to mention, in a high-interest-rate environment, the Treasury Bond in the United States, which has already expanded to an alarming extent, will also increase significantly in repayment costs. This will put the fate of the infrastructure upgrade stimulus plan that Biden hopes to launch in the future into huge question, since Republicans have already expressed strong resistance.</p><p>“Our debt levels have clearly reached unsustainable levels, and we know that interest rates cannot remain at such low levels forever,” Berman analyzed. “If the market eventually realizes that the United States is no longer the safe haven it once was, interest rates could skyrocket. This is certainly not an urgent issue, but investors must be prepared for it in advance. Ultimately, the risk is real.”</p><p>In fact, even before the new stimulus bill was passed, economists had already predicted that the U.S. economy would achieve strong growth in 2021. Now, the general consensus is that, further stimulated by the new bill, the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of around 7% this year, a figure not seen since the 1980s.</p><p>Such substantial economic growth could indeed help many people escape poverty, allow wages to rise without causing inflation to rise, and earn Biden economic hero status as a result. However, the possibility of a diametrically opposite outcome cannot be ignored—a sharp rise in inflation, eating away at consumers' purchasing power, and forcing the Fed to take highly destructive emergency rate hike actions.</p><p>“It is clear that policymakers, especially those on the left, have completely forgotten how destructive inflation can be,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at Mizuho Securities. Fortunately, at least for now, he doesn’t need to worry too much about it.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in the United States a blessing or a curse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill in the United States a blessing or a curse?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-11 22:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>The positive side argues that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"American dawn,\" giving the U.S. economy, which is already poised for a period of prosperity, a \"turbocharged boost,\" and significantly improving wealth inequality. Ultimately, Biden will stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who ushered in the great prosperity of the 1980s, becoming an American economic hero. The opposing side argues that with global prices ranging from gasoline to housing prices soaring, and the prices of speculative assets being astonishingly high, investors are increasingly fearful of inflation. Under these circumstances, if the US government pours more fuel into the already warming economy, adding fuel to the fire, it could lead to a sharp rise in inflation and cause a major disaster.</i></p><p>On Wednesday local time, the U.S. Congress officially approved a bill to inject $1.9 trillion into the already growing U.S. economy, an unprecedented move. The bill now only has one final step left—sending it to President Biden for signature. Prior to this, Congress had already passed a stimulus package totaling nearly $4 trillion last year during the pandemic.</p><p>However, the White House is clearly not satisfied with this; they also hope to release more trillion-dollar stimulus packages this year, such as a comprehensive upgrade to infrastructure across the United States.</p><p>Given this reality, a nationwide debate has sparked among economists, budget experts, and economic policymakers.</p><p>The positive side argues that the passage of the bill marks the arrival of the so-called \"American dawn,\" giving the U.S. economy, which is already poised for a period of prosperity, a \"turbocharged boost,\" and significantly improving wealth inequality. Ultimately, Biden will stand shoulder to shoulder with Roosevelt, who ended the Great Depression, and Reagan, who ushered in the great prosperity of the 1980s, becoming an American economic hero.</p><p>The opposing side argues that with global prices ranging from gasoline to housing prices soaring, and the prices of speculative assets being astonishingly high, investors are increasingly fearful of inflation. Under these circumstances, if the US government pours more fuel into the already warming economy, adding fuel to the fire, it could lead to a sharp rise in inflation and cause a major disaster.</p><p>Regardless, when Biden signs the new bill on Friday as scheduled, his early economic policy agenda will have a signature moment. However, the country is now beginning to manage its economy in a completely new way, and this may not necessarily lead to a happy outcome.</p><p>“If everything goes well, Biden will become a hero in everyone’s eyes, and he certainly deserves that honor,” analyzed Len Burman, an economist at Syracuse University and one of the founders of the Tax Policy Center. “This is the first time in American history that sufficiently strong stimulus has been provided during a crisis, but the risk is that this stimulus may also prove to be too strong. The threat of inflation is real. If the final result is not satisfactory, at least we will learn some lessons about the consequences of an experiment of this scale.”</p><p>With the accelerated rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the successive lifting and relaxation of lockdown measures in various states, the US economy had already shown many signs of recovery when the upcoming \"American Rescue Plan\" was released.</p><p>In February, the U.S. economy created 379,000 jobs, much to the delight of observers, and it is expected that many more jobs will be created in the near future as bars and restaurants reopen and Americans gradually resume travel.</p><p>Now, as the business community prepares for the economy to gradually return to normal later this year, the CEO confidence index has surged to a seventeen-year high. While the small business confidence figures remain relatively cautious, the upward momentum is also tangible. Throughout the pandemic lockdown, consumers in major economies around the world have accumulated nearly $3 trillion in new cash, which means that once life gradually returns to normal, demand in all areas, from travel to cars to various new products, will rise significantly.</p><p>Of course, under such circumstances, various signs of rising inflation have begun to appear in many parts of the United States, such as gasoline prices skyrocketing and expected to continue rising. Whether it's new or used cars, prices have risen sharply, not to mention the already hot residential market. Under such circumstances, policymakers cannot help but become vigilant, even worried.</p><p>Of course, the most representative examples are high stock prices and the prices of speculative assets such as Bitcoin. With interest rates at historic lows and the Federal Reserve and Congress continuing to inject cash, these gains are likely to continue.</p><p>The stock market continued its surge this week, with the atmosphere of euphoria intensifying. For example, stocks like GameStation, which are a hub for retail investors, and iconic stocks like Tesla, which are sentimentally driven by retail investors, are all seeing their prices surge.</p><p>For some time to come, millions of Americans will receive substantial cash from the stimulus package—federal unemployment benefits, increased child tax deductions, more generous healthcare subsidies, and targeted relief measures for small businesses, especially those owned by people of color and women.</p><p>Progressives applaud all of the above, believing it is significant progress that will not only boost economic growth in the short term, but also help correct the increasingly severe inequality between the rich and the poor during the pandemic.</p><p>Many economists also point out that many Americans still need more help. Currently, the number of jobs in the United States is still about 11 million less than before the outbreak of the pandemic. Although the official unemployment rate is 6.2%, if those who left the labor market during the pandemic—mostly women—are included in the calculations, the figure will be closer to 10%.</p><p>While Republicans have almost unanimously criticized the bailout as too large and wasteful, most economists have taken a much softer stance.</p><p>They point out that while the possibility of the bailout plan being too strong does exist and could very well lead to a rapid rise in prices and force the Fed to rate hike early, impacting the prices of assets such as tech stocks, popular retail stocks, and cryptocurrencies, it may not be a bad thing if these bubbles can be slowly released instead of bursting all at once.</p><p>Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, believes: \"We really have no choice but to provide this level of support, and for the past two decades, inflation has been below normal. Moderately rising inflation is not a bad thing; it's far from being worrying. As for interest rates, they are too low now in any case.\" Investors are not unprepared for higher interest rates and inflation.</p><p>“There is a strong bubble in the market,” Zandi added. “It’s always better to release some air early than to let these bubbles inflate.”</p><p>What Zandi said actually represents the most optimistic expectation for the prospects of the US economy, which is about to be flooded with cash: the market will adjust moderately, interest rates will rise slightly, the unemployment rate will decrease significantly, and the inequality between the rich and the poor will be greatly improved. In fact, this is precisely Biden's ideal blueprint.</p><p>However, many economists are not so optimistic. They are worried that once the pandemic ends and life and the economy return to normal, the release of all these funds will significantly increase aggregate demand, while aggregate supply will simply not be able to match it. In this scenario, the prices of various goods and services will surge across the board, forcing the Federal Reserve to rate hike early, and for a consecutive rate hike.</p><p>Strong, continuous rate hike will cause consumers to face a sharp rise in borrowing costs, while their purchasing power is also rapidly shrinking due to inflation. Not to mention, in a high-interest-rate environment, the Treasury Bond in the United States, which has already expanded to an alarming extent, will also increase significantly in repayment costs. This will put the fate of the infrastructure upgrade stimulus plan that Biden hopes to launch in the future into huge question, since Republicans have already expressed strong resistance.</p><p>“Our debt levels have clearly reached unsustainable levels, and we know that interest rates cannot remain at such low levels forever,” Berman analyzed. “If the market eventually realizes that the United States is no longer the safe haven it once was, interest rates could skyrocket. This is certainly not an urgent issue, but investors must be prepared for it in advance. Ultimately, the risk is real.”</p><p>In fact, even before the new stimulus bill was passed, economists had already predicted that the U.S. economy would achieve strong growth in 2021. Now, the general consensus is that, further stimulated by the new bill, the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of around 7% this year, a figure not seen since the 1980s.</p><p>Such substantial economic growth could indeed help many people escape poverty, allow wages to rise without causing inflation to rise, and earn Biden economic hero status as a result. However, the possibility of a diametrically opposite outcome cannot be ignored—a sharp rise in inflation, eating away at consumers' purchasing power, and forcing the Fed to take highly destructive emergency rate hike actions.</p><p>“It is clear that policymakers, especially those on the left, have completely forgotten how destructive inflation can be,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at Mizuho Securities. Fortunately, at least for now, he doesn’t need to worry too much about it.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844c8f1c14dd94e2ef7036ff97d43537","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150912365","content_text":"正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。\n当地时间周三，美国国会正式批准了向已然处在增长当中的美国经济注入1.9万亿美元资金的法案，堪称是前所未有的举措。这一法案至此只剩下了最后一步程序——送交拜登总统签署，而在此之前，国会去年在疫情期间已经通过了总计近4万亿美元的刺激计划。\n不过，白宫显然并不满足于此，他们还希望能够在今年年内抛出更多万亿级别的刺激，比如对全美基础设施进行全面大升级。\n这样的现实之下，经济学家、预算专家，以及经济政策制定者们当中，已经掀起了一场覆盖全美的大辩论。\n正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。\n反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。\n无论怎样，当拜登按照预定日程于本周五签署新法案，他的早期经济政策日程都将迎来一个标志性的时刻。只不过，这个国家现在正在开始以一种全新的路径来管理经济，而这未必一定就会有一个美妙的结果。\n“如果一切运转良好，拜登就将成为大家心目当中的英雄，而他确实也配得上这样的光荣。”锡拉丘兹大学经济学家、税务政策中心（Tax Policy Center）创始人之一伯曼（Len Burman）分析道，“这是美国历史上第一次在危机当中提供力度足够的刺激，但是风险在于，这力度也可能会被证明是过大了。通货膨胀的威胁是实实在在的。如果最终的结果不如人意，至少我们会得到一些教训，知道这样规模的实验会造成怎样的后果。”\n伴随新冠病毒疫苗加速铺开，各州陆续解除和放宽封锁措施，这份即将贯彻实施的“美国救援计划”（ American Rescue Plan）问世的时候，美国经济其实已经显现出了不少复苏的苗头。\n2月间，美国经济创造出了37.9万就业机会，让观察家们大喜过望，而且预计未来一段时间当中，伴随酒吧和餐厅重新开始营业，美国人逐渐恢复旅行，还将有大量更多的岗位被创造出来。\n现在，企业界都在准备迎接经济在今年晚些时候逐渐回归常态的脚步，首席执行官信心指数冲上了十七年的新高。小企业信心数字虽然保持着相对谨慎的态势，但是上扬的势头也是实实在在的。在整个疫情封锁期间，全球主要经济体的消费者们已经积蓄了近3万亿美元的新增现金，这就意味着一旦生活逐渐恢复正常，从旅行到汽车再到各种新商品，所有领域的需求都将大幅度抬头。\n当然，这样的局面之下，各种通货膨胀走高的迹象也开始在美国多处出现，比如汽油价格正在飞涨，而且预计还将继续涨下去。无论是新车还是二手车，价格都大幅度上涨，原本就已经炙手可热的住宅市场就更不必说。在这样的情况下，政策制定者们不能不开始警惕起来，甚至感到担心。\n当然，最有代表性的当然还是高企的股票价格，以及比特币等投机资产的价格。在利率处于历史性低点，联储和国会还在持续注入现金的情况之下，这些涨势大概率都将延续下去。\n股市本周继续奔腾前进，欣快症的气息越发浓烈。比如游戏驿站这种散户疯狂集中地，还有特斯拉这种散户情绪标志性股票，价格都在大涨。\n在未来一段时间里，成百上千万美国人都将从刺激计划当中获得不菲的现金——联邦失业救济补贴，儿童免税扣除额度提升，更慷慨的医保补贴，以及针对小企业，尤其是有色人种和女性企业主的小企业的定向援救措施等。\n进步主义者对上述所有这一切拍手叫好，认为这是重大的进步，不但会在短期内促进经济增长，更有助于矫正疫情期间越发严重的贫富不均局面。\n许多经济学家还指出，其实还有许多美国人依然需要更多的帮助。目前，全美就业机会数量较之疫情爆发前依然有着大约1100万的差距。虽然官方失业率数字是6.2%，但是如果将那些疫情期间退出劳动力市场的人口——大部分都是女性——纳入计算，则这一数字就将接近10%。\n虽然共和党方面几乎是众口一词地批评这一纾困计划规模过大，颇有浪费的嫌疑，但是多数经济学家们的口径却要柔和得多。\n他们指出，虽然救援计划力度过大的可能性确实是存在的，也完全可能导致价格迅速上涨，并迫使联储提早加息，使科技股票、散户热门股票和虚拟货币等资产价格遭到冲击，但是，如果这些泡沫能够缓缓将空气放出，而不是一起破灭，其实也未必不是一件好事。\n穆迪分析首席经济学家詹迪（Mark Zandi）就认为：“其实我们别无选择，唯有提供这种力度的支持，而且我们过去长达二十年的时间里，通货膨胀一直都低于正常水平。通货膨胀适度抬升并非坏事，现在还远没有到其为其感到担心的地步。至于利率，现在无论如何都是过低的。投资者对于更高的利率和通货膨胀率并非毫无准备。”\n“市场泡沫气息浓厚。”詹迪补充道，“提早释放出一些空气，其实总好过让这些泡沫日益膨胀。”\n詹迪所言，其实就代表了对即将迎来现金大水漫灌的美国经济前景的最乐观预期：市场温和调整，利率略有提高，而失业率将大幅度降低，贫富不均局面将得到重大改善。事实上，这也正是拜登的理想蓝图。\n不过，也有不少经济学家并没有这么乐观，他们担心的是已经非常可观的消费者储蓄，一旦疫情结束，生活和经济正常化，这些资金全部释放出来，就将使得总需求大幅度提升，而总供给根本无法与其匹配。在这种情况下，各种商品和服务价格就将全面飙涨，迫使联储提早加息，而且是连续加息。\n大力度的连续加息，将使得消费者面临的借贷成本急剧窜升，而因为通货膨胀的关系，他们的购买力同时还在迅速缩水。更不必说，高利率环境当中，美国业已膨胀到惊人地步的国债，其偿付成本也将大幅度升高，拜登希望后续推出的基础设施升级刺激计划的命运就将因此被打上巨大的问号，毕竟现在，共和党人就已经表示了强烈抵制的态度。\n“我们的债务规模显然已经达到了不可持续的水平，而且我们也知道，利率终归不可能永远保持这样的低水平。”伯曼分析道，“如果市场最终意识到，美国已经不再是过去那种安全的避风港，利率就可能迅速窜升。这当然还不是迫在眉睫的问题，但是投资者对此必须提前有所准备，归根结底，这风险是实实在在的。”\n其实，早在新刺激法案闯关前，经济学家们就已经预计美国经济2021年将实现强势增长了。现在，大家的普遍看法是，在新法案的进一步刺激下，美国经济今年的增长速度有望达到7%左右，这是一个20世纪80年代以来就从来不曾出现过的数字。\n如此可观的经济增长确实可以帮助许多人摆脱贫困，让工资在不导致通货膨胀抬头的情况下获得增长，并让拜登因此获得经济英雄的地位。然而，另外一种截然相反的结果出现的可能性一样不容忽视——通货膨胀急剧窜升，吞噬消费者的购买力，并迫使联储采取破坏性极大的紧急加息动作。\n“显而易见的是，政策制定者们，尤其是他们当中的左翼，已经彻底忘记了通货膨胀的破坏力能够有多可怕。”瑞穗证券首席美国经济学家雷契特（Steven Ricchiuto）表示，好在至少现在，他还不必对这一点过多担心。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}