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- alvinmokalvinmok
  ·2021-06-14
  zz
  Xintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS
  6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。 “SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。
  Xintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS
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- alvinmokalvinmok
  ·2021-04-26
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  What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'
  美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但
  What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'
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At the scene, Jiang Yujie, managing partner of Xintian Venture Capital, gave a keynote speech on \"Why SaaS is the best track for value investment\".</p><p>\"SaaS is the U.S. stock asset with the highest return in the past ten years.\" At the beginning of the speech, Jiang Yujie pointed out the high potential of the SaaS industry, \"From 2013 to now, the return of the entire SaaS index is as high as 970%.</p><p>If we make a horizontal comparison, in the past ten years, the most powerful FAANG portfolio in the U.S. stock market has created a return of 23 times, while the MT SAAS portfolio composed of Microsoft, Amazon and several other SaaS companies has achieved an astonishing return of 3000% in the past ten years. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e75d2a07faa8436f33f2edd438e7ed\" tg-width=\"2094\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why has the overall valuation level of the SaaS industry improved so much?</p><p>Jiang Yujie pointed out three reasons: \"The first is the average growth rate of SaaS. SaaS has maintained a growth rate of more than 25% in the past 7 or 8 years, almost unchanged. Secondly, because the funds invested in SaaS companies have grown exponentially, from 2010 to 2020, the funds invested in private cloud computing companies in the United States increased 12 times, reaching 180 billion US dollars last year, and the entry of large funds will bring about a significant increase in the valuation level of market value. Finally, leading SaaS companies have shown unprecedented growth endurance, such as Twilio. Although Wall Street thought its growth rate would be reduced to 30% in 2016, until now, its average growth rate is still 60%. There are still many such companies. \"</p><p>Such an astonishing sustained high growth rate is difficult for another industry to achieve. So what is the reason why SaaS can achieve such an impressive growth rate? Jiang Yujie believes that SaaS is the industrial revolution of the software industry: \"Every industrial revolution will redefine categories, redefine upstream, midstream and downstream, and open capabilities to other categories. Take Salesforce, the originator of SaaS, as an example. Salesforce first used cloud software hosting mode to redefine enterprise software. Second, it changed the traditional sales model and pricing model, skipping dealers and agents. The CRM products it developed are better than those of traditional manufacturers. Third, it launched the first PaaS, allowing these developers and SaaS vendors to build and run SaaS applications based on their platforms and open their capabilities to the market. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0797ed32a289f3b8dffd856114fb0d80\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">When talking about the business model of the SaaS industry, Jiang Yujie gave a good example with taxation. He believes that the best business model is tax collection, and SaaS is collecting taxes from the entire industry. In detail, compared with consumption, taxation is not transferred by personal will. As long as you exist, you have to pay taxes, and more importantly, the party who collects taxes has absolute pricing power. At present, all leading SaaS companies add up to collect taxes from all companies. For example, Salesforce and Adobe collect taxes from the marketing department, Veeva collects taxes from the medical industry, etc. From marketing to IT to finance to customer service, from construction, medical care to financial retail, all industries, all enterprises and all businesses have to pay software usage tax for using software. Moreover, the \"tax\" collected by SaaS is not just software tax. For example, Twilio will charge a usage fee of $0.0075 for sending a text message. These SaaS companies, which bind their business, charging model and customer business, not only collect software usage tax, but also include business tax.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf1eb7133abe4fb325ee46962f47c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Now that we know the potential of the SaaS industry, how can we find the optimal solution among tens of thousands of SaaS companies? Jiang Yujie gave an indicator and a rule. One indicator is NDR (Net Dollar retention), which refers to the value created by the same group of customers over time. Jiang Yujie analyzed 40 SaaS companies and found that their median NDR is 109%, which determines whether the flywheel of SaaS companies can rotate. For example, some excellent companies, such as snowflake, have an NDR of 158%. One rule is the 40% rule, which refers to the revenue growth rate of SaaS companies plus profit margins exceeding 40%. Through this rule, oligopoly companies in the market can be found.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ac706084b0b44aa05d06a9ac8a2dad\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, let's go back to investment. Under the substantial release of water by the Federal Reserve last year, the growth rate of M2 was as high as 25%. If investment cannot outperform the excess currency issuance, it is actually meaningless. Then how to outperform the M2? Jiang Yujie summed up five points: \"First, there must be good intrinsic value. What is good intrinsic value? The most fundamental factor to evaluate the value of a company's stock actually lies in the cash flow that the company can create in the future. The second is high growth, that is, it has a high growth rate. The third is a long duration. The fourth is the continuous increase in concentration. The fifth is to have a strong moat. The sixth is scarcity. I think a good SaaS company fully meets all the conditions and can maintain growth of more than 20% or 50% every year even without acquiring new customers, which tells us that this is the best way to fight inflation in our time. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9405f6d2cb606aca0453a8a98ee290c\" tg-width=\"2084\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"When it comes to investment strategies, there are several types of targets that we can choose: the first is the platform index, the second is the vertical industry leader, and the third is the dark horse. If your goal is to outperform inflation in the long run, I think you can buy platforms and indexes at any time. There are several reasons behind it. The first is the growth of the industry and the growth of the company's business. SaaS is the biggest trend in this era. Second, don't predict the market. Third, accept a reasonable valuation. A good company must have a high valuation. Fourth, don't want to make all the money. Good high-quality assets are very scarce. If it is not a good company, its return has no upper limit, but if you hesitate, you will miss the opportunity. So don't want to make all the money, if the company is good, you can trade time for space. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059f0959630053ec172e9dedf0205cc4\" tg-width=\"2080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>To watch the live replay, please click:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={\"liveId\":\"16226253307800\"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tiger's Seventh Anniversary: Meeting You Unexpectedly in the World</b></a><b></b></p><p>TIPS: The presentation starts at 120 minutes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXintian Venture Capital Jiang Yujie: The next ten years will be the golden age of SaaS\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 12, the first stop of the 7th anniversary Open Day of Tiger Brokers, a well-known Internet brokerage, was successfully held. At the scene, Jiang Yujie, managing partner of Xintian Venture Capital, gave a keynote speech on \"Why SaaS is the best track for value investment\".</p><p>\"SaaS is the U.S. stock asset with the highest return in the past ten years.\" At the beginning of the speech, Jiang Yujie pointed out the high potential of the SaaS industry, \"From 2013 to now, the return of the entire SaaS index is as high as 970%.</p><p>If we make a horizontal comparison, in the past ten years, the most powerful FAANG portfolio in the U.S. stock market has created a return of 23 times, while the MT SAAS portfolio composed of Microsoft, Amazon and several other SaaS companies has achieved an astonishing return of 3000% in the past ten years. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e75d2a07faa8436f33f2edd438e7ed\" tg-width=\"2094\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Why has the overall valuation level of the SaaS industry improved so much?</p><p>Jiang Yujie pointed out three reasons: \"The first is the average growth rate of SaaS. SaaS has maintained a growth rate of more than 25% in the past 7 or 8 years, almost unchanged. Secondly, because the funds invested in SaaS companies have grown exponentially, from 2010 to 2020, the funds invested in private cloud computing companies in the United States increased 12 times, reaching 180 billion US dollars last year, and the entry of large funds will bring about a significant increase in the valuation level of market value. Finally, leading SaaS companies have shown unprecedented growth endurance, such as Twilio. Although Wall Street thought its growth rate would be reduced to 30% in 2016, until now, its average growth rate is still 60%. There are still many such companies. \"</p><p>Such an astonishing sustained high growth rate is difficult for another industry to achieve. So what is the reason why SaaS can achieve such an impressive growth rate? Jiang Yujie believes that SaaS is the industrial revolution of the software industry: \"Every industrial revolution will redefine categories, redefine upstream, midstream and downstream, and open capabilities to other categories. Take Salesforce, the originator of SaaS, as an example. Salesforce first used cloud software hosting mode to redefine enterprise software. Second, it changed the traditional sales model and pricing model, skipping dealers and agents. The CRM products it developed are better than those of traditional manufacturers. Third, it launched the first PaaS, allowing these developers and SaaS vendors to build and run SaaS applications based on their platforms and open their capabilities to the market. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0797ed32a289f3b8dffd856114fb0d80\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">When talking about the business model of the SaaS industry, Jiang Yujie gave a good example with taxation. He believes that the best business model is tax collection, and SaaS is collecting taxes from the entire industry. In detail, compared with consumption, taxation is not transferred by personal will. As long as you exist, you have to pay taxes, and more importantly, the party who collects taxes has absolute pricing power. At present, all leading SaaS companies add up to collect taxes from all companies. For example, Salesforce and Adobe collect taxes from the marketing department, Veeva collects taxes from the medical industry, etc. From marketing to IT to finance to customer service, from construction, medical care to financial retail, all industries, all enterprises and all businesses have to pay software usage tax for using software. Moreover, the \"tax\" collected by SaaS is not just software tax. For example, Twilio will charge a usage fee of $0.0075 for sending a text message. These SaaS companies, which bind their business, charging model and customer business, not only collect software usage tax, but also include business tax.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ddbf1eb7133abe4fb325ee46962f47c\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Now that we know the potential of the SaaS industry, how can we find the optimal solution among tens of thousands of SaaS companies? Jiang Yujie gave an indicator and a rule. One indicator is NDR (Net Dollar retention), which refers to the value created by the same group of customers over time. Jiang Yujie analyzed 40 SaaS companies and found that their median NDR is 109%, which determines whether the flywheel of SaaS companies can rotate. For example, some excellent companies, such as snowflake, have an NDR of 158%. One rule is the 40% rule, which refers to the revenue growth rate of SaaS companies plus profit margins exceeding 40%. Through this rule, oligopoly companies in the market can be found.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ac706084b0b44aa05d06a9ac8a2dad\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, let's go back to investment. Under the substantial release of water by the Federal Reserve last year, the growth rate of M2 was as high as 25%. If investment cannot outperform the excess currency issuance, it is actually meaningless. Then how to outperform the M2? Jiang Yujie summed up five points: \"First, there must be good intrinsic value. What is good intrinsic value? The most fundamental factor to evaluate the value of a company's stock actually lies in the cash flow that the company can create in the future. The second is high growth, that is, it has a high growth rate. The third is a long duration. The fourth is the continuous increase in concentration. The fifth is to have a strong moat. The sixth is scarcity. I think a good SaaS company fully meets all the conditions and can maintain growth of more than 20% or 50% every year even without acquiring new customers, which tells us that this is the best way to fight inflation in our time. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9405f6d2cb606aca0453a8a98ee290c\" tg-width=\"2084\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\"When it comes to investment strategies, there are several types of targets that we can choose: the first is the platform index, the second is the vertical industry leader, and the third is the dark horse. If your goal is to outperform inflation in the long run, I think you can buy platforms and indexes at any time. There are several reasons behind it. The first is the growth of the industry and the growth of the company's business. SaaS is the biggest trend in this era. Second, don't predict the market. Third, accept a reasonable valuation. A good company must have a high valuation. Fourth, don't want to make all the money. Good high-quality assets are very scarce. If it is not a good company, its return has no upper limit, but if you hesitate, you will miss the opportunity. So don't want to make all the money, if the company is good, you can trade time for space. \"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059f0959630053ec172e9dedf0205cc4\" tg-width=\"2080\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>To watch the live replay, please click:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&rndata={\"liveId\":\"16226253307800\"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Tiger's Seventh Anniversary: Meeting You Unexpectedly in the World</b></a><b></b></p><p>TIPS: The presentation starts at 120 minutes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f77d4ae4394b059ac188ad4f954f28","relate_stocks":{"OKTA":"Okta Inc.","NOW":"ServiceNow","SNOW":"Snowflake","VEEV":"Veeva Systems Inc.","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe","TIGR":"老虎证券","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125343885","content_text":"6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。\n“SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。”在演讲的开头，蒋宇捷就点出了SaaS行业的高潜力，“从2013年到现在，整个SaaS指数的回报高达970%。\n如果进行横线对比，在过去十年，美股最厉害FAANG组合创造了23倍的回报，而由微软、亚马逊及另外几家SaaS构成的MT SAAS组合，过去十年的收益达到了惊人的3000%。”为什么SaaS行业整体的估值水平有这么大的提升？\n蒋宇捷指出了三个原因：“首先是SaaS的平均增速，SaaS在过去7、8年间保持在25%以上增速，几乎保持不变。其次是因为投到SaaS公司的资金成指数型增长，在2010到2020年间，投向美国私有云计算公司的资金增长了12倍，去年高达1800亿美金，而大资金的进入，就会带来市值的估值水平明显提升。最后就是领先的SaaS公司展现出前所未有的增长耐力，比如Twilio，虽然华尔街在2016年认为它的增速会降低到30%，但直到现在，它的平均增速还是60%，这样的公司还有很多。”\n如此惊人的持续性高增速，换做另外一个行业都很难做到，那SaaS能实现如此亮眼增速的原因是什么？蒋宇捷认为SaaS是软件业的工业革命：“每次工业革命都会重新定义品类、重新定义上中下游以及把能力开放给其他门类。而拿SaaS的鼻祖Salesforce为例，Salesforce最开始用云端的软件托管模式，重新定义了企业软件，第二，它改变了传统的销售模式和定价模式，跳过了经销商、代理商，它研发出来的CRM产品比传统厂商的更好用。第三，它推出了第一个PaaS，让这些研发者、SaaS厂商能够基于他们平台，构建和运行SaaS应用，把能力开放给市场。”而聊起SaaS行业的商业模式，蒋宇捷用税收举了一个很好的例子，他认为最好的商业模式是收税，而SaaS在向全行业收税。详细来说，与消费相比，税收不以个人的意志作为转移，只要你存在就要交税，而且更重要的是，收税的一方拥有绝对的定价权。而目前，所有头部的SaaS公司加起来，就是面向所有公司收税。比如Salesforce、Adobe收的是营销部门的税，Veeva收的是医疗行业的税等等。从营销到IT到财务到客服，从建筑、医疗到金融零售，所有的行业，所有的企业，所有的业务都要为使用软件付出软件的使用税。而且，SaaS收的“税”并不只是软件税，比如Twilio，发送一条短信会收取0.0075美元的使用费。这些把业务、收费模式和客户业务绑定的SaaS公司，不仅仅是收取软件的使用税，还包括业务税。那既然知道了SaaS行业的潜力，又该怎么在数以万计的SaaS公司中找到最优解呢？蒋宇捷给出了一个指标和一个法则，一个指标是NDR（Net Dollar retention），指的是随着时间推移，同一批客户所创造的价值。蒋宇捷将40家SaaS的公司做了分析，发现它们NDR中位数是109%，这决定了SaaS公司的飞轮能不能转得起来，像一些优秀的企业，比如snowflake的NDR是158%。而一个法则就是40%法则，指的是SaaS公司营收的增速加上利润率超过40%，通过这个法则，可以找到市场当中的寡头企业。最后再回到投资，在去年美联储的大幅放水之下，M2的增速高达25%，如果投资没有办法跑赢货币超发，其实就没有任何意义。那该如何跑赢M2？蒋宇捷总结了五点：“第一，要有好的内在价值，什么是好的内在价值？最根本的评估企业股票价值的要素其实就在于这个公司未来能够创造的现金流。第二是高增长，就是具有很高的增速。第三是持续时间长。第四是集中度不断提升。第五是具有强大的护城河。第六是稀缺。我认为好的SaaS公司完全满足所有的条件，即便不获得新客户，每年都可以保持超过20%、50%的增长，这告诉我们，这是我们这个时代对抗通胀最好的办法。”“而具体到投资策略上，我们可以选择的标的有几类：第一是平台指数，第二是垂直行业龙头，第三是黑马。如果你的目标是长期跑赢通胀，我觉得你可以买平台和指数，任何时候都可以买，背后有几点原因。第一是行业的增长和公司业务的增长，SaaS化就是这个时代最大的趋势。第二，不要预测市场，第三是接受合理估值，好的公司一定是估值高的。第四，不要想赚到所有的钱，好的优质资产是非常稀缺的，如果不是好公司，它的回报是没有上限的，但是犹豫的话会错失良机。所以不要想赚到所有的钱，如果公司很好，你可以用时间换取空间。”观看直播回放请点击：老虎七周年：在全球与你不期而遇\nTIPS：该演讲从120分钟开始。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9,"NOW":0.9,"TWLO":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"TIGR":0.9,"VEEV":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374509300,"gmtCreate":1619452306800,"gmtModify":1704724183494,"author":{"id":"3569042653770498","authorId":"3569042653770498","name":"alvinmok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1babd58673ba23d27bb47a03ba4ac96","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569042653770498","authorIdStr":"3569042653770498"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2","listText":"2","text":"2","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/374509300","repostId":"2130392457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2130392457","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619419383,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2130392457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130392457","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但","content":"<p>On April 28, US time (early morning of April 29, Beijing time), the Federal Reserve's April FOMC interest rate meeting is approaching. Before that, we might as well think about the current U.S. and international economic environment, as well as the \"pressure\" that the Federal Reserve is under. Although just over a month has passed since the interest rate meeting in March, the economic environment in the United States and the world has changed again during this period. There are four specific changes that may put greater pressure on the Fed, which remains accommodative.</p><p><b>First, the economic data in March was significantly better than that in February, and the United States may be at the \"turning point\" of economic recovery.</b>Up to now, key U.S. economic data for March (such as non-farm employment, PMI, retail sales, CPI/PPI, etc.) have been released, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March is obvious. February was disturbed by extremely cold weather and the economic data was sluggish again. However, the data in March was generally optimistic, indicating that the road to economic recovery in the United States is back on track. Under the \"backdrop\" of the low base, it is inevitable that the market will have doubts about the \"too fast\" recovery of the US economy. Powell said in an interview with CBS on April 11 that the U.S. economy is at an \"inflection point\". \"We feel that we are at a stage where economic growth will be greatly accelerated and employment opportunities will be greatly increased.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3409f4db5d718187c19b464958503b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, international commodity prices have strengthened since March, once again exacerbating inflationary pressures.</b>Recently, commodity prices have continued to rise. For example, since March, the prices of Lun copper and Lun aluminum have reached a \"level\" compared with February, while since April, the prices of basic commodities such as food and wood have increased more obviously, which are relatively related to the prices of mass consumer goods. direct correlation. At the micro level, the media reported in the past week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Retailer giants are planning to raise prices, and the transmission of raw material prices to end consumer goods prices has been confirmed.</p><p>In this context, the public's judgment on U.S. inflation is easily divided: whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will continue objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price increases may be long-term. In the past week, the media published Powell's letter to senators on April 8. In the letter, he stated that inflation would not be allowed to exceed 2% significantly, nor would he allow inflation to exceed 2% for a long time. His remarks seemed to be a little more about inflation. Cautious, a little less \"calm\" than before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763590e0d0b48e730b789da1ca2653a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the recent downturn in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index has created more room for policy shift.</b>Before the interest rate meeting in March, the 10-year US Treasury yields suddenly rose and triggered a shock adjustment in the stock market. At that time, the market was still expecting the Federal Reserve to rescue the market through Operation Twist (OT), or at least announce the extension of SLR. However, since April, both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index have shown a downward trend, and the stock market has performed strongly. On the contrary, at the micro level, cryptocurrencies have become \"popular\" recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Events such as being dragged down by hedge fund liquidation may reflect that financial risks may be heating up. In any case, the constraints on the Fed's policy shift at this stage are at least less than last month.</p><p><b>Fourth, the central banks of other countries have been more active in policy shifting recently, which may create some \"peer pressure\".</b>From March 17 to 19, the central banks of Brazil, Turkey and Russia have \"made the forefront\" of the global rate hike. On April 21, the Bank of Canada announced that it would begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases, and its expectations for the timing of the rate hike were advanced from 2023 to the second half of 2022.</p><p>On April 23, the Russian Central Bank continued its rate hike of 50bp to 5%, and its rate hike exceeded expectations by 25bp. The roadmap of the European Central Bank's policy shift is clearer than that of the Federal Reserve, which clearly stated that the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) may last until the end of March 2022. In fact, the United States leads the world in vaccine promotion, and the momentum of economic recovery is no weaker than that of other economies. The Federal Reserve is more moderate than its \"peers\", or it may easily arouse doubts.</p><p>However, considering all things considered, we believe that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will still choose to \"stand still\" (not discuss cutting QE) at its April interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>First of all, the economic data in March has a good momentum, but the absolute value may still not be enough to support the policy shift.</b>In terms of employment, there is still a big gap between the unemployment rate in March (6%) and before the epidemic (3.5%); Compared with before the epidemic (about 152 million), the total number of non-agricultural employment (about 144 million) still has a gap of 8 million; The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP employment) gap in March was approximately 9 million people; In the past week, the number of initial jobless claims and renewal claims are still 2.5 times and 2 times the pre-epidemic level, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af569b7f374b046e9e45f10c58290353\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the recent global epidemic counterattack may add variables to the economic recovery of the United States.</b>The epidemic in Europe rose in late March, and many countries spent Easter in blockade; Since April, especially in the past two weeks, the epidemic in Asia has counterattacked, and large economies such as India and Japan have been more obviously impacted. The global economic recovery process may be slowed down again, and the United States may not be immune to it.</p><p><b>At the same time, the Federal Reserve has recently expressed concern about the risk of the epidemic.</b>Powell expressed concern about global vaccination asynchronization at the IMF spring meeting on April 8; In an interview on April 11, he said that the resurgence of the epidemic is the main risk to the prospects for economic recovery. Against the background of repeated global epidemics, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains uncertain, and the Fed's confidence may be limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3158e71af7cd373cc5402a8aaa1849fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, judging from the recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, it is not time to discuss reducing QE.</b>Drawing on Bernanke's experience in 2013, Powell has repeatedly stated that a lot of signals will be released before cutting QE, but the recent signals are very limited (only Dallas Fed Kaplan made \"hawkish\" remarks on April 8). St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%.</p><p>According to our calculations, it will take after July for 75% of the population in the United States to be vaccinated. In addition, it is worth noting that the frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings will be high in the coming period, with three meetings in April, June and July respectively. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin to discuss tapering QE at its interest rate meeting in June or July, or a more reasonable option.</p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next for the Fed: 'Still Hold'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 14:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On April 28, US time (early morning of April 29, Beijing time), the Federal Reserve's April FOMC interest rate meeting is approaching. Before that, we might as well think about the current U.S. and international economic environment, as well as the \"pressure\" that the Federal Reserve is under. Although just over a month has passed since the interest rate meeting in March, the economic environment in the United States and the world has changed again during this period. There are four specific changes that may put greater pressure on the Fed, which remains accommodative.</p><p><b>First, the economic data in March was significantly better than that in February, and the United States may be at the \"turning point\" of economic recovery.</b>Up to now, key U.S. economic data for March (such as non-farm employment, PMI, retail sales, CPI/PPI, etc.) have been released, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March is obvious. February was disturbed by extremely cold weather and the economic data was sluggish again. However, the data in March was generally optimistic, indicating that the road to economic recovery in the United States is back on track. Under the \"backdrop\" of the low base, it is inevitable that the market will have doubts about the \"too fast\" recovery of the US economy. Powell said in an interview with CBS on April 11 that the U.S. economy is at an \"inflection point\". \"We feel that we are at a stage where economic growth will be greatly accelerated and employment opportunities will be greatly increased.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3409f4db5d718187c19b464958503b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, international commodity prices have strengthened since March, once again exacerbating inflationary pressures.</b>Recently, commodity prices have continued to rise. For example, since March, the prices of Lun copper and Lun aluminum have reached a \"level\" compared with February, while since April, the prices of basic commodities such as food and wood have increased more obviously, which are relatively related to the prices of mass consumer goods. direct correlation. At the micro level, the media reported in the past week<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">Procter Gamble</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Retailer giants are planning to raise prices, and the transmission of raw material prices to end consumer goods prices has been confirmed.</p><p>In this context, the public's judgment on U.S. inflation is easily divided: whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will continue objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price increases may be long-term. In the past week, the media published Powell's letter to senators on April 8. In the letter, he stated that inflation would not be allowed to exceed 2% significantly, nor would he allow inflation to exceed 2% for a long time. His remarks seemed to be a little more about inflation. Cautious, a little less \"calm\" than before.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/763590e0d0b48e730b789da1ca2653a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the recent downturn in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index has created more room for policy shift.</b>Before the interest rate meeting in March, the 10-year US Treasury yields suddenly rose and triggered a shock adjustment in the stock market. At that time, the market was still expecting the Federal Reserve to rescue the market through Operation Twist (OT), or at least announce the extension of SLR. However, since April, both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index have shown a downward trend, and the stock market has performed strongly. On the contrary, at the micro level, cryptocurrencies have become \"popular\" recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Events such as being dragged down by hedge fund liquidation may reflect that financial risks may be heating up. In any case, the constraints on the Fed's policy shift at this stage are at least less than last month.</p><p><b>Fourth, the central banks of other countries have been more active in policy shifting recently, which may create some \"peer pressure\".</b>From March 17 to 19, the central banks of Brazil, Turkey and Russia have \"made the forefront\" of the global rate hike. On April 21, the Bank of Canada announced that it would begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases, and its expectations for the timing of the rate hike were advanced from 2023 to the second half of 2022.</p><p>On April 23, the Russian Central Bank continued its rate hike of 50bp to 5%, and its rate hike exceeded expectations by 25bp. The roadmap of the European Central Bank's policy shift is clearer than that of the Federal Reserve, which clearly stated that the emergency anti-epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) may last until the end of March 2022. In fact, the United States leads the world in vaccine promotion, and the momentum of economic recovery is no weaker than that of other economies. The Federal Reserve is more moderate than its \"peers\", or it may easily arouse doubts.</p><p>However, considering all things considered, we believe that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will still choose to \"stand still\" (not discuss cutting QE) at its April interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>First of all, the economic data in March has a good momentum, but the absolute value may still not be enough to support the policy shift.</b>In terms of employment, there is still a big gap between the unemployment rate in March (6%) and before the epidemic (3.5%); Compared with before the epidemic (about 152 million), the total number of non-agricultural employment (about 144 million) still has a gap of 8 million; The \"small non-agricultural\" (ADP employment) gap in March was approximately 9 million people; In the past week, the number of initial jobless claims and renewal claims are still 2.5 times and 2 times the pre-epidemic level, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af569b7f374b046e9e45f10c58290353\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Secondly, the recent global epidemic counterattack may add variables to the economic recovery of the United States.</b>The epidemic in Europe rose in late March, and many countries spent Easter in blockade; Since April, especially in the past two weeks, the epidemic in Asia has counterattacked, and large economies such as India and Japan have been more obviously impacted. The global economic recovery process may be slowed down again, and the United States may not be immune to it.</p><p><b>At the same time, the Federal Reserve has recently expressed concern about the risk of the epidemic.</b>Powell expressed concern about global vaccination asynchronization at the IMF spring meeting on April 8; In an interview on April 11, he said that the resurgence of the epidemic is the main risk to the prospects for economic recovery. Against the background of repeated global epidemics, the sustainability of the economic recovery momentum remains uncertain, and the Fed's confidence may be limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3158e71af7cd373cc5402a8aaa1849fa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Finally, judging from the recent signals released by the Federal Reserve, it is not time to discuss reducing QE.</b>Drawing on Bernanke's experience in 2013, Powell has repeatedly stated that a lot of signals will be released before cutting QE, but the recent signals are very limited (only Dallas Fed Kaplan made \"hawkish\" remarks on April 8). St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when the vaccination rate reaches 75%.</p><p>According to our calculations, it will take after July for 75% of the population in the United States to be vaccinated. In addition, it is worth noting that the frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings will be high in the coming period, with three meetings in April, June and July respectively. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will begin to discuss tapering QE at its interest rate meeting in June or July, or a more reasonable option.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693d25b42fff03130f622d16b946b810","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457533.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130392457","content_text":"美国时间4月28日(北京时间4月29日凌晨)，美联储4月FOMC议息会议将至。在这之前，不妨对现阶段美国与国际经济环境、以及美联储正在承受的“压力”，做一些思考。虽然距离3月议息会议仅过去一个多月，但期间美国与全球经济环境又生变化。具体有四方面变化，可能使维持宽松的美联储承受更大压力。\n一是，3月经济数据显著好于2月，美国或位于经济复苏的“转折点”。截至目前，美国3月重点经济数据(如非农就业、PMI、零售销售、CPI/PPI等)均已公布，环比和同比均显著增长。美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显，2月受极寒天气扰动、经济数据再度低迷，而3月数据普遍乐观，表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。而在低基数的“衬托”下，还难免让市场产生对美国经济恢复“过快”的怀疑。4月11日鲍威尔在CBS采访中表示，美国经济正处于一个“拐点”(inflection point)，“我们感觉我们正处在一个经济增长速度将大大加快、就业机会将大大增加的阶段。”\n\n二是，3月以来国际大宗商品价格走强，再度加剧通胀压力。近期大宗商品价格继续走高，例如3月以来伦铜和伦铝的价格比2月上了一个“台阶”，而4月以来食品、木材等基础商品涨价更明显，它们与大众消费品价格有较为直接的关联。微观层面，近一周媒体报道了宝洁、可口可乐等零售商巨头正在酝酿涨价，原料价格向终端消费品价格的传导得以印证。\n在此背景下，大众对美国通胀的判断容易陷入分歧：是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者(由于“价格粘性”)物价上涨可能具有长期性。近一周媒体公布了鲍威尔在4月8日致参议员的信件，信中表示，不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%，其言论似乎对通胀多了几分谨慎、少了几分此前的“淡定”。\n\n三是，近期美债利率和美元指数下行，为政策转向创造了更大空间。3月议息会议前，10年美债利率骤然攀升并引发股市震荡调整，当时市场还在期待美联储通过扭曲操作(OT)来救市，或至少宣布SLR延期。但4月以来，美债利率和美元指数均呈现下行走势，股市表现强劲。反而微观层面上，近期加密货币“大行其道”、瑞银受对冲基金爆仓拖累等事件，或反映出金融风险可能正在升温。无论如何，现阶段美联储政策转向所受束缚，至少比上月要小。\n四是，他国央行近期在政策转向上更积极，可能制造一些“同辈压力”。3月17-19日巴西、土耳其和俄罗斯央行已为全球加息“打前站”。4月21日加拿大央行宣布开始缩减资产购买规模，且对加息时点的预期从2023年提前到2022年下半年。\n4月23日俄罗斯央行继续加息50bp至5%，加息幅度超预期的25bp。欧洲央行政策转向的路线图比美联储更清晰，其明确表示紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)或持续至2022年3月底。事实上，美国疫苗推广领跑全球，经济复苏的势头不比其他经济体弱，美联储比“同行”们更加温和，或容易引起质疑。\n不过综合考虑，我们认为，美联储4月议息会议大概率仍会选择“按兵不动”(不讨论削减QE)。\n首先，3月经济数据发展势头不错、但绝对值或仍不足以支撑政策转向。就业方面，3月失业率(6%)与疫情前(3.5%)仍有较大差距;非农就业总人数(约14400万人)与疫情前(约15200万人)相比，仍有800万人的缺口;3月“小非农”(ADP就业)缺口约为900万人;近一周初请失业金人数和续请人数，分别仍为疫情前水平的2.5倍和2倍。\n\n其次，近期全球疫情反扑，或为美国经济复苏再添变数。3月下旬欧洲疫情抬头，多国在封锁中度过复活节;4月以来、尤其近两周，亚洲地区疫情反扑，印度、日本等大型经济体受到更明显的冲击，全球经济复苏进程可能又被拖缓，美国或难独善其身。\n同时，美联储近期也表达出对疫情风险的关注。鲍威尔在4月8日的IMF春季会议上表达对全球疫苗接种不同步的担忧;其在4月11日的采访中表示疫情重现是经济复苏前景面临的主要风险。在全球疫情反复的背景下，经济复苏势头的可持续性仍存变数，美联储的信心可能受限。\n\n最后，从美联储近期释放的信号看，讨论缩减QE时点未至。吸取了2013年伯南克的经验，鲍威尔多次表示削减QE前将释放大量信号，但近期的信号十分有限(仅达拉斯联储卡普兰在4月8日发表了“鹰派”言论)。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。\n根据我们的测算，美国实现75%人群接种需要到7月以后。此外，值得注意的是，未来一段时间美联储议息会议的频率较高，4月、6月和7月分别有三次会议。因此，美联储在6月或7月议息会议开始讨论缩减QE，或是更合理的选择。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UDOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}