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  The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'
  事件：美国时间2021年4月28日，美联储公布4月FOMC会议声明，美联储主席鲍威尔接受采访。1、美联储货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。2、 4月声明对经济前景的表述更显乐观。具体有三方面变
  The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'
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The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Fed announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe logic behind the Fed's 'indecision'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-29 14:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Event: On April 28, 2021, US time, the Federal Reserve announced the statement of the April FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was interviewed.</i></p><p><b>1. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is \"unchanged\", which is in line with market expectations.</b></p><p><b>The February and April statements were more optimistic about the economic outlook.</b>There are three specific changes:<b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccine and strong policy support\". We think this is related to the fact that the economic data in March was significantly better than in February<b>。 2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>The March statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors.\" Our benchmark calculations show that,<b>Due to the base effect, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%. 3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement considered the risk to the economic outlook \"considerable\", but this time it was only understated as the economic risk still exists. This is related to the epidemic prevention and control and vaccination effectiveness in the United States.</p><p><b>3. Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but it was slightly \"indecisive\", and the market did not buy it</b>。<b>1) Economy:</b>A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.<b>2) Inflation:</b>A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.<b>3) Cut QE:</b>When a reporter asked if the Fed was discussing Tapering, Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering bond purchases.<b>4) Asset prices: \"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, that's a fact.</b>I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccinations and reopening the economy. \"<b>After Powell's speech mentioned the stock market \"bubble\", the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively.</b>Among them, the Dow fell 0.48%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.28%. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury decreased from 1.64% to 1.62%, and the the US Dollar Index also decreased.</p><p><b>4. How do you treat the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b>The market expects the Federal Reserve to give more clear attitudes and signals, for example, has the US economy reached what Powell called the \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and where is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, Powell's current statement remains slightly vague. We believe that at this stage,<b>The Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism,</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" is given, and no \"red line\" for inflation indicators is given.<b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5. The Federal Reserve may start discussing cutting QE at its June or July meeting. It is recommended to focus on two sets of data: vaccine progress and inflationary pressures.</b>1) St. Louis Fed Bullard said on April 7 that discussions on tapering QE may be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We estimate that it may take until around July to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population in the United States. 2) Under the base effect, it is expected that the United States will witness the high point of inflation in April-May. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of monetary and fiscal in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term. If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</p><p><b>1 Monetary policy unchanged</b></p><p><b>On April 28, 2021, in the statement of the April FOMC meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the monetary policy section \"remained unchanged\", which was in line with market expectations.</b>Compared with March, the monetary policy section in the April 2021 FOMC meeting statement \"remained unchanged\", that is, the main monetary policies remained unchanged, including: maintaining the statutory and excess reserve rates (0.10%), maintaining the Federal Funds rate (0-0.25%), maintaining the rhythm of asset purchases ($80 billion in Treasury Bond and $40 billion in MBS per month), continuing to purchase CMBS, continuing to execute repo agreement operations, etc. (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/ca81cc71ddb12c7dcc7df4c648a41d27.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1031\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2 More optimistic about the economic outlook</b></p><p><b>The April statement changed its representation of the U.S. economic outlook, and it was more optimistic overall.</b>There are three specific changes (Figure 2):</p><p><b>1) Improvements in economic and employment indicators were highlighted.</b>The description of economic and employment indicators in the March statement is a \"recovery\" after a \"slow pace of recovery\", while this description is \"strengthened\" under \"vaccines and strong policy support\", and emphasizes that the situation in the relatively vulnerable sector has also \"shown improvement\".</p><p><b>2) Obviously adjust the statement about inflation, or imply that PCE in March has exceeded 2% year-on-year.</b>In March, the statement said that \"inflation continues to stay below 2%\", but this statement deleted this expression and changed it to \"inflation rises, mainly reflecting temporary factors\". Considering that the Federal Reserve generally gets PCE data in advance, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in March, which will be announced on April 30th, is likely to have exceeded 2%.</p><p><b>3) The presentation of economic risk has been weakened.</b>The March statement specifically stated that the public health crisis is putting pressure on three aspects: \"economic activity, employment and inflation\", but this time it is described only generally as putting pressure on the \"economy\". We believe that this is mainly related to the fact that inflation has returned to a high level. The \"economy\" here mainly refers to economic activities and employment. In addition, in the March statement, the risk to the economic outlook was \"considerable\", but this time the adjective was deleted, and it was only understated that the economic risk still exists.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c4fa4bbc2ae73a08966d72e9d04f937a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1121\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>How to understand the above changes?</b>In our previous report \"Thinking about the Next Step of the Federal Reserve\", we pointed out that although it is only one and a half months apart, the stage and background of the April interest rate meeting are significantly different from those of the March meeting.</p><p><b>First, there is an obvious gap between the economic data of the United States in February and March.</b>Disturbed by extremely cold weather in February, the economic data of the United States was depressed again, while the economic data from March to April were generally optimistic. For example, non-farm employment increased greatly in March (Chart 3), and the number of initial unemployment claims dropped significantly since April (Chart 4), indicating that the road of economic recovery in the United States is back on track.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/672145a47a7cfea13171eadfafb154d1.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, the base effect began to appear in March, and the inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) in the United States have risen sharply in March (Chart 5 and Chart 6).</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/40fa5236dd6b212681763ed94d7340b0.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Our benchmark calculation shows that the monthly year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States after March may exceed 2%.</b>The inflation measure that the Fed is most concerned about is the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index). According to the latest forecast of the Federal Reserve in March (the median year-on-year forecast of PCE for the whole year of 2021 is 2.4%), we estimate that the average month-on-month PCE in the United States in 2021 is 0.185%. Using this as the benchmark path of PCE inflation evolution, it can be predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE will remain above 2% after March this year, with April and May likely to usher in a high point, reaching 2.75% and 2.77% respectively (Chart 7). It should be noted that this is only a conservative estimate, and the recent new price increase factors may further push up US inflation. For example, in March, the US CPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month respectively. Therefore, the upcoming March PCE data is likely to be higher than the benchmark path, and the market is currently forecasting a 0.3% month-on-month PCE growth in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2fa5aa44bcf931100e2ac95ee18521c3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Third, the U.S. is well under control (Chart 8), and vaccination continues to advance (Chart 9). Compared with March, the economic risk has indeed declined at this stage.</b></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/60a5c96bb9bf1b9ad7a2dac20e911fda.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3 Powell's speech was slightly \"indecisive\" and the market failed to buy it</b></p><p><b>Powell's interview speech remained dovish as a whole, but slightly \"indecisive\". Key contents include:</b></p><p><b>1) Representation of the economy:</b>The recovery remains uneven and incomplete, labour market conditions continue to improve, and unemployment remains high. A reporter asked what the \"strengthening\" in the statement specifically meant. Powell said, first, some economic data are very good, and second, there is still a big gap with our goal.</p><p><b>2) Statement of inflation:</b>It seems unlikely that we will see inflation continue to rise, and with the labor market still weak, unlikely to see inflation continue to rise; A temporary rise in inflation this year does not meet the criteria of rate hike. A reporter asked how to define \"main\" in \"mainly by temporary factors\". Powell said that the main factor of rising inflation is the base effect. Of course, various factors such as energy prices and economic restart also exist. A reporter asked if there was a \"red line\" of the inflation expectation indicator. Powell said that the inflation expectation indicator fluctuated greatly, and the key question was not whether it could reach (a certain level), but when.</p><p><b>3) Reply to cut QE:</b>A reporter asked whether the Federal Reserve was discussing Tapering (Tapering QE). Powell said that now is not the time to start talking about Tapering the scale of bond purchases. Economic activity has just recently picked up, and it will take some time to meet the standard.</p><p><b>4) On financial stability and asset prices.</b>\"Some asset prices are high and you see some bubbles in the capital markets, which is a fact. I wouldn't say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but a lot of it has to do with vaccination and reopening the economy.\"</p><p><b>5) About digital currency.</b>A reporter asked whether China, for example, is launching digital currency and whether the Federal Reserve is lagging behind. Powell replied that the purpose and impact of the implementation of digital currency by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are different, and it is necessary to be extra cautious. \"Being right is more important than being fast\".</p><p><b>After the Fed resolution and Powell's speech, the market \"didn't buy it.\"</b>After the Fed announced its resolution and during Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly; However, after Powell's speech mentioned the \"bubble\" of the stock market, the three major stock indexes fell in the short term, and finally closed down collectively, with the Dow falling by 0.48%, the S&P falling by 0.08% and the Nasdaq falling by 0.28%. After Powell's one-hour speech, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped from 1.64% to 1.62%; the US Dollar Index down to around 90.6; The price of gold futures rose, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose first and then fell, with small volatility.</p><p><b>4 What do you think of the current \"indecisiveness\" of the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p>Before the interest rate meeting in April, the market generally expected that the Fed would still \"stand still\", but hoped that the Fed would give a clearer attitude and signal. For example, has the U.S. economy reached what Powell calls an \"inflection point\", what is the \"substantial progress\" it often mentions, and what is the limit of tolerance for inflation indicators? However, it is clear that Powell's speech this time is still slightly vague and slightly \"indecisive\".</p><p>We believe that,<b>At this stage, the Fed's decision-making approach is more \"accommodative\", or more towards an \"outcome-based\" decision-making mechanism</b>Therefore, no specific definition of \"substantial progress\" and no \"red line\" of inflation indicators are given.</p><p><b>The underlying reason may be that the Federal Reserve believes that the recovery momentum shown by economic data may not necessarily be \"linear extrapolation\".</b>The future economic trend of the United States may have two completely different directions: one is that the recovery is \"blocked\", which is due to the uncertainty of the current global COVID-19 epidemic and the progress of vaccine promotion; The other is that the recovery is \"too strong\", which is due to inflationary pressures caused by many factors such as global monetary easing, vaccination, US fiscal stimulus, commodity cycle, and base effect.</p><p><b>5 Fed May Start Discussions on QE Cuts at June or July Meetings</b></p><p>In the coming period, for the tracking of the Fed's policy trends, we suggest that two sets of data should be observed simultaneously: vaccine progress and inflationary pressure.</p><p>Vaccine progress is strongly correlated with the recovery of the job market. Although the latter appears more clearly in the Fed's decision-making framework, the former is more leading and more helpful for forward-looking judgment. The St. Louis Fed's Bullard said on April 7 that discussions of tapering QE could be on the agenda when vaccination rates reach 75%. We calculate,<b>It may take until around July for the United States to achieve \"full vaccination\" of 75% of the population.</b></p><p>Under the base effect, the United States is expected to witness the high of inflation in April-May. This also means that in June and July, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to discuss the higher inflation data. At that time, there may be two differences: on the one hand, is it \"strength\", is it the low base effect and the normal rebound in the process of economic recovery, or is it an unhealthy outbreak under the strong stimulation of money and finance in the early stage? On the other hand, it is the \"duration\", whether it is \"temporarily higher\" as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized, or whether the contradiction between supply and demand will persist objectively, or (due to \"price stickiness\") price adjustment may be long-term.<b>If the inflation data in April-May is too high, the probability of the Fed starting to discuss cutting QE in June and July will increase.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/463413.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）通胀：有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能不能达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）削减QE：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering，鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候。4）资产价格：“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，美股三大股指集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%，美元指数亦下行。4、 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？市场期待美联储给出更多明确的态度和信号，例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，鲍威尔的本次发言仍然略显含糊。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5、 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE。建议重点观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。1）圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。2）基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。1 货币政策不变2021年4月28日，美联储公布的4月FOMC会议声明中，货币政策部分“只字未改”，符合市场预期。与3月相比，2021年4月FOMC会议声明中的货币政策部分“只字未改”，即主要货币政策维持不变，包括：维持法定和超额准备金利率（0.10%），维持联邦基金利率（0-0.25%），维持资产购买节奏（每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS），继续购买CMBS，继续执行回购协议操作等（图表1）。2 对经济前景更加乐观4月声明对美国经济前景的表述有所变化，整体更显乐观。具体有三方面变化（图表2）：1）强调了经济和就业指标的改善。3月声明中对于经济和就业指标的描述是“复苏步伐缓慢”后的“回升”，而本次描述为“疫苗和强有力政策支持”下的“加强”（strengthened），且强调了相较脆弱的部门的情况也已经“显示出改善”。2）明显调整有关通胀的表述，或暗示3月PCE同比已超2%。3月声明说“通胀继续保持在2%以下”，而本次声明删去了这一表述，改为“通胀上升，主要反映了暂时性因素”。考虑到美联储一般提前得到PCE数据，预计4月30日将公布的3月PCE同比增速很可能已经超过2%。3）对经济风险的表述有所弱化。3月声明具体指出，公共卫生危机对“经济活动、就业和通胀”三个方面造成压力，但本次仅笼统地描述为对“经济”造成压力。我们认为，这主要跟通胀已经恢复高位有关，这里的“经济”主要指代经济活动和就业两个方面。此外，3月声明认为经济前景风险“相当大”（considerable），而本次删去了形容词，仅轻描淡写地描述为经济风险仍存。如何理解上述变化？我们在前期报告《思考美联储的下一步》中指出，虽然仅相隔一个半月，但4月议息会议所处的阶段和背景，与3月会议有显著区别。第一，美国2月和3月的经济数据差距明显。2月受极寒天气扰动，美国经济数据再度低迷，而3-4月经济数据普遍乐观，例如3月非农就业大增（图表3），4月以来初请失业金人数显著下降（图表4），表现美国经济复苏之路重回正轨。第二，3月开始基数效应显现，美国3月通胀指标（CPI和PPI）已经大幅抬头（图表5、图表6）。我们的基准测算显示，美国3月之后的PCE月同比增速可能均将超过2%。美联储最为关注的通胀指标是PCE（个人消费支出指数）。根据美联储3月的最新预测（2021年全年PCE同比预测中值为2.4%），我们测算，2021年美国PCE月环比平均为0.185%，以此作为PCE通胀演化的基准路径，可预测今年3月以后PCE同比增速均保持2%以上，其中4月和5月可能迎来高点，分别达到2.75%和2.77%（图表7）。需注意，这仅为保守估计，近期新涨价因素有可能进一步推高美国通胀，例如3月美国CPI同比和环比分别为2.6%和0.6%。因此，即将公布的3月PCE数据很有可能高于基准路径，目前市场预测3月PCE环比增长0.3%。第三，美国疫情控制情况良好（图表8），疫苗接种持续推进（图表9）。相较3月，现阶段经济风险确实已经有所下降。3 鲍威尔发言略显“优柔寡断”，市场未能买账鲍威尔的采访发言整体维持鸽派，但略显“优柔寡断”。重点内容包括：1）对经济的表述：复苏仍然不平衡、不完整，劳动力市场状况继续改善，失业率依然高企。有记者问声明中的“加强”具体是什么意思，鲍威尔说，一是部分经济数据很好（very good），二是与我们的目标仍有很大差距。2）对通胀的表述：我们似乎不太可能看到通胀持续上升，且在劳动力市场仍然疲软的情况下，不太可能看到通胀持续上升；今年通胀暂时上升不符合加息的标准。有记者问如何定义“主要由暂时性因素”里的“主要”，鲍威尔说通胀走高的主要因素是基数效应，当然能源价格、经济重启等各因素也都存在。有记者问是否有通胀预期指标的“红线”，鲍威尔说，通胀预期指标本来波动就比较大，而且关键问题不是能否达到（某一水平）、而是何时达到（when）。3）对削减QE的回复：有记者问美联储是否在讨论Tapering（缩减QE），鲍威尔说，现在还不是开始谈论缩减购债规模的时候，经济活动最近刚刚回升，要达到标准还需要一段时间。4）关于金融稳定和资产价格。“一些资产价格很高，你在资本市场上看到了一些泡沫，这是一个事实。我不会说这与货币政策没有关系，但是这在很大程度上与接种疫苗和重新开放经济有关。”5）关于数字货币。有记者问如中国等正在推出数字货币、美联储是不是落后了。鲍威尔回答，美联储与其他国家央行推行数字货币的目的以及造成的影响是不一样的，需要格外谨慎。“正确比快速更加重要”。美联储决议以及鲍威尔讲话后，市场“并不买账”。美联储公布决议后、鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指小幅上涨；但鲍威尔讲话提到股市“泡沫”后，三大股指短线下跌，最终集体收跌，其中道指跌0.48%，标普跌0.08%，纳指跌0.28%。鲍威尔1小时的讲话后，10年美债收益率由1.64%下行至1.62%；美元指数下行至90.6左右；黄金期货价格转涨、WTI和布伦特原油期货价格先涨后跌、波幅较小。4 如何看待美联储现阶段的“优柔寡断”？4月议息会议前，市场普遍预计美联储仍然“按兵不动”，但希望美联储给出更为明确的态度和信号。例如，目前美国经济是否达到了鲍威尔所说的“拐点”（inflection point）、什么是其经常提到的“实质性进展”、对通胀指标的容忍极限在哪？但是，很明显，鲍威尔本次的发言仍然略显含糊，略显“优柔寡断”。我们认为，现阶段，美联储的决策方式更偏向于“调适”（accommodative），或者说更加偏向于一种“结果导向型”（outcome-based）的决策机制，因此未给出有关“实质性进展”的具体定义、未给出通胀指标的“红线”。其深层次原因可能是，美联储认为经济数据所显示的复苏势头不一定能够“线性外推”。未来美国经济走势，可能有两种截然不同的方向：一种是复苏“受阻”，这是由于目前全球新冠疫情与疫苗推广进展仍有不确定性；另一种是复苏“过强”，这是由于全球货币宽松、疫苗接种、美国财政刺激、大宗商品周期、以及基数效应等多方因素造成的通胀压力。5 美联储可能在6月或7月会议上开始讨论削减QE未来一段时间，对于美联储政策动向的跟踪，我们建议重点应同步观察两组数据：疫苗进展以及通胀压力。疫苗进展与就业市场恢复强相关，虽然后者更加明确出现在美联储决策框架中，但前者的领先性更强、更有助于前瞻性判断。圣路易斯联储布拉德在4月7日表示，对缩减QE的讨论可能将在疫苗接种率达到75%时提上日程。我们测算，美国实现75%人群的“完全接种”，可能需要到7月左右。基数效应下，预计美国在4-5月或见证通胀指标高点。这也意味着，6、7月美联储很可能需要就通胀数据的走高进行讨论。届时可能出现两方面分歧：一方面是“力度”，是低基数效应以及经济复苏过程中的正常反弹，还是前期货币财政大力刺激下的非健康爆发？另一方面是“持续时间”，是正如美联储多次强调的“暂时走高”，还是供需矛盾将客观持续，又或者（由于“价格粘性”）物价调整可能具有长期性。如果4-5月通胀数据过高，美联储在6、7月开始讨论削减QE的概率就会加大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}