To The Moon

NeoClouds Biz Model. Neoclouds like NBIS and CRWV buys AI chips and rents out to hyperscalers like OpenAI and Anthropic. Their claimed forward revenues seems positive.  But I see problems with this biz model. Firstly, they borrow huge amount of cash to buy the chips.  Secondly, cost of capital is rising.  Thirdly, the chips they are bought are current or even past models. And technology is fast evolving with faster and better chips being developed every day.  Fourthly, the forward revenue, or order books, are mostly not guaranteed. The customers may not go ahead with the purchases.  This Is a bit like buying a piece of land, engaging a contractor to build a shopping centre, based on the promise that the entertainment operator will come and open a complex at your pr

$NEBIUS(NBIS)$  Very high risk situation for NBIS now. Not just for them, but all AI sub businesses in NeoCloud and Data Centre investments.  Whereas there is truth that AI will fuel the next big idea, it is also true to note that valuations for many of the participating companies is way stretched.  Go back to 2000. Internet is real. And everyone needs internet now. But look at what happened to most of the companies that were the dotcom stories then. Not many survived beyond a year after the burst. So how many AI stories will be around at the end of 2027?

$Intel(INTC)$   Puking big time. More than 30% in a single trading session.  Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, and especially all those AI and Crypto stocks. (Wonder what this means for the US with Trump's money-pump into Intel to rescue them).  I feel the AI bubble is about ripe. And with the US debt now at more 4 trillion $, how is this going to impact global economy?

Reported today in an article on Bloomberg.  Credit and thanks to Mr.David Fox for writing this very timely article. A big warning to everyone. A bruising selloff in technology shares, sparked by a few days of disappointing tech firm results, drove the Nasdaq down about 10% from its peak, near a technical correction. It closed 2.9% in the red. Intel plummeted 29% — the most in over four decades — as its outlook missed estimates. That news came on the heels of Alphabet’s biggest-ever market plunge the day before, in which it saw half-a-trillion dollars in market capitalization go up in smoke. And Amazon became the latest firm to face a sharp post-earnings selloff after the company reported greater capital spending than anticipated and the slowest growth in its core e-commerce business i

Global Tech Plunges. Is today going to be a Blackiest Friday? After the spectacular AI related collapse yesterday, everyone is waiting for the market open with baited breath. As it is, at overnight and pre-market trading, things does not look encouraging.  What is on people's mind now is if what Elon Musk predicted about most AI companies dying like guppies will come true. Is this the start of the repeat of 2000? The AI version of the Dot.com bust?

$Intel(INTC)$   Puking big time post release of Q results. Amazon and Alphabet too. Once again showing a market that is just waiting to sell-on-news. This is a clear sign of a market priced to perfection.  I feel the AI bubble is about ripe. Anyday now.

$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$   Big crash happening right now. More than 11% plunge.  MRVL is my monitor for NeoClouds. If MRVL goes, even with Jensen Huang's backing, all goes to hell. AI has been super hyped. And even more speculative has been the sub-instruments like NeoCloud and Data Centre plays.  I rank them as high risk. Only crypto treasuries like MSTR are riskier. Be careful. Watch carefully.

Nasdaq Futures OMG. Out of all the tech stocks I am tracking, only Meta is showing some positiveness at pre-market trading. All others are deeply in the red. And Nasdaq Futures are so as well.  So much for a tech rally. That seems to be only good for 2 days.

NeoCloud Trades Marvell, Coreweave, Nebius, Iren are all having a biy of a crap right now at pre-market trading. Even the Crypto and Rocket stocks are not faring so good.  Is this start of the much called bubble pop?

Tech topsy turvy moves are a warning signs not to go all in and FOMO to the grave. Just the day before, everyone was calling for the greatest bull run in history to happen. Then Google post what looked like a nice set of results, and they tanked big time. Not just Google. But Neoclouds, AMD, etc. All took a dive. What this teaches me is nothing last forever.