From Leaders to Laggards: Is Memory Waiting on Micron? Memory gave back Tuesday's gains on Wednesday. SanDisk fell 3.73%, SK Hynix 3.12% and Micron 2.22%. The selling carried on into Thursday's pre-market, then all three bounced on Friday as oil eased after the Trump–Xi meeting. They fell together and bounced together, so this is one trade, not three. The real test is Micron's report after the close on September 30, which is about 4 AM on October 1 in Singapore. Wall Street expects $50.91 billion in revenue and $31.49 in earnings per share. Management guided about 86% gross margin, but also said price increases are moderating. The quarter also has 14 weeks, one more than usual. Bull case: 16 take-or-pay contracts lock in about $100 billion through 2030. HBM4 has already shipped over $1 bil
$NVDA: The CEO discount. Market +2.35%, chips up, Nvidia alone fell. Monday in numbers • NVDA closed at $178.67, down 4.27% (−$7.97). It was down about 7% at one point intraday. • It was NVDA's lowest close since April, and about $192B of market value gone in one session. • The rest of the market rallied hard: – S&P 500 +2.35% to 7,549.94, its best day since April 8 – Nasdaq 100 +3.40% – All 11 sectors rose, and 418 S&P stocks rose against 80 that fell – The VIX fell 22% to 19.92, its first close under 20 since the selloff began • Nvidia's suppliers and rivals rose: AMD +9.22%, TSMC +6.5%, SK Hynix +4.7% That last point is the key one. If investors were worried about AI chip demand, TSMC and SK Hynix would have fallen with Nvidia. Instead they rose. This is a discount on Nvidia's l
$AMD: Shipments have started. Gross margin is the real test. My sell put pick. The two days • Thursday: −17.26% to $404.40 in the AI chip selloff. Intraday low $402.10. • Friday: +11.04% to $449.04 on 45.7M shares, about double the ~22M average. No AMD-specific news; the whole chip sector bounced (SOX +4.2%). • AMD is still 30.9% below its record of $649.42. The topic asks what would confirm this is more than an oversold bounce. My answer goes through all three candidates. 1. MI450 shipments: already happening On the Nov 3 call, management said Q3 was "the first quarter that we shipped MI455 and Helios racks for revenue." Volume shipments went to customers including Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle. Management also said: "We have a big step up in Q4. We'll continue to ramp thr
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $NVDA: The CEO admitted the affair. The board opened a probe. Do I sell puts? What actually happened • Sunday, Nov 8: Jensen Huang emailed Nvidia staff. In his words: "I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did." He said he had "fallen short" of his responsibility to shareholders and employees, and that he is "fully committed to Nvidia." • The same day, Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation, run by independent directors with outside counsel. The board said it "has no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised," but that its inquiry "will examine all available information." It also said it has confidence in Huang and
$Palantir(PLTR)$ $PLTR: Revenue +96%. Contracts +6%. Here's my sell put pick. Palantir closed Friday at $160.38. That is 23.3% below its record close of $209.05 on Oct 9. Thursday it fell 9.7% to $154.99. That was its eighth straight losing day, and the biggest one-day drop since Feb 4 (−11.6%). Friday bounced 3.48%. Why it fell 1. New contracts slowed. US commercial total contract value (TCV, the lifetime value of deals signed) grew just 11% this quarter, against 153% in Q2. Total TCV grew 6%, against 49% in Q2. 2. The pipeline slowed. US commercial remaining deal value (contracts still to be paid out) grew only 4% from Q2. Last quarter it grew 27%. 3. Growth is cooling. The Q4 guidance of $2.649–2.653B means about 15% growth over Q3, down
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Bounce: yes. Bottom: not proven. How I'm selling puts into it. Thursday was the worst day for US stocks since April 2025. • Nasdaq −5.5%, S&P 500 −4.4%, chip index (SOX) −12.25% • The Magnificent 7 lost about $1 trillion in market value • Losing stocks outnumbered winners 6.1 to 1 on the S&P • 26.9B shares traded, against a 17.7B average • The Nasdaq fell into correction (10%+ off its high) Friday bounced, but only partly. • Nasdaq +1.09% to 24,579 • S&P +0.31% to 7,377 • Dow −0.46% • The VIX (fear gauge) fell from 28.18 to 23.72. It was 16.61 on Wednesday. • For the week: Nasdaq −3.4%, S&P −2.7%. The S&P is still +7.8% for the year. Where the money went Dip buyers went back into the stocks hit hardest on
$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $UNH: Beat, raised, raised again. Still sold. Here's my sell put pick. UnitedHealth closed Thursday at $395.36, down 3.42% (−$14.02). It opened at $412.20 and fell below $400 by the close. That is about 14% under its 52-week high of $461.62. Why it fell 1. Medical cost fear is back. Investors worry that patients are using more care, which squeezes the profit UNH keeps from premiums. On the Q3 call, management said cost growth in its commercial (employer) plans is running above the 11% it first assumed. That is the soft spot. 2. A risk-off day. Nasdaq fell more than 5% and the semiconductor index fell 12%. A defensive Dow stock with a 0.62 beta still got sold with everything else. What Q3 actually said (Oct 13) • Adjusted
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD Fell 17.26% Two Days After the Best Quarter in Its History. Here's Why, What the Report Actually Said, and My Exact Sell-Put Trigger and Strike Written Friday 6 Nov, SGT, using Thursday's US close. WHAT HAPPENED AMD closed Thursday at $404.40, down $84.38 (-17.26%) from $488.78. - Intraday range: $402.10 to $456.20 - Volume: 71.2 million shares, more than three times the 21.8 million average - From the Oct 6 record close of $649.42: -37.7% Two days earlier, AMD had reported what Lisa Su called its largest and most profitable quarter ever. AMD didn't fall alone. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12.2% to 9,011.14, its biggest one-day fall in about six and a half years. All 30 members closed lower.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Nvidia Fell 9.26% and Gave Back Its Whole 2026 Gain, 11 Days Before Its Biggest Report. How I'd Sell Puts on My Core Name, With the Exact Trigger and Strike Written Friday 6 Nov, SGT, using Thursday's US close. WHAT HAPPENED Nvidia closed Thursday at $181.60, down 9.26% from $200.13. - About $447 billion of market value was wiped out in one session. - Volume was roughly double the average. - It's the stock's steepest one-day fall since April 2025. The damage over the past few weeks: - Last 5 sessions: about -16% - From the Oct 6 record close of $239.24: -24.1% - Below its 2025 closing price of $186.50, so the entire 2026 gain is gone - Below the 200-day moving average ($204.51) and the 50-day ($221.19) The Nasdaq fell more th
$Meta Platforms(META)$ Meta Is Down 22% From Its High: The Ad Business Is Fine, the Funding Model Isn't. A Put Seller's Deep Dive, With the Strike Zone and the Trigger Written Friday 6 Nov, SGT, using Thursday's US close. WHAT HAPPENED THURSDAY Thursday was the worst day for the Nasdaq since April 2025: down more than 5%, with the Dow off 1,833 points. Meta fell 3.96% to $605.08 after opening at $631.95 and touching $583.80 intraday. The stock is now about 22% below its 52-week high of $779.82. The day before, Meta had rallied on the idea that Democratic data center limits after the midterms might ease Big Tech's capex pressure. On Thursday that logic flipped: the market started pricing in the risk that tighter oversight of AI infrastructur
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ CoreWeave Hit a Record Low While the Dow Gained 3%: What Changed, What the Balance Sheet Says, and Why My Sell-Put Gates Are All Red (With the Strike Math Anyway) Written Thursday 5 Nov, SGT, using Wednesday's US close. WHAT HAPPENED On Wednesday the Dow gained 1,569 points (+3.03%) to 53,356 and the VIX fell 20% to 16.61. CoreWeave fell 9.90% to $48.42, a new record-low close and about 65% below its 52-week high of $138.36. It's down about 46% in a month. It wasn't only CoreWeave. The whole neocloud group fell: - Nebius: -6.67% - IREN: -11.24% - Roundhill Neocloud ETF: -9.10% - Nvidia: -3.17% to $200.13 Three things hit at once. 1. Texas politics. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race (the AP has calle