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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-24
hey
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-23
yo hows life
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-23
lalala
Tech leads way to Wall Street rebound as Powell promises steady hand
WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - Wall Street rebounded Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Pow
Tech leads way to Wall Street rebound as Powell promises steady hand
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-23
hey!
Krispy Kreme eyes near $4 bln valuation in U.S. IPO
June 22 (Reuters) - Krispy Kreme Inc is looking to raise as much as $640 million through a U.S. init
Krispy Kreme eyes near $4 bln valuation in U.S. IPO
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-23
jp morgan thrash
Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next
Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's "Taper Tantrum" spa
Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-23
yo
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-22
oof
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-22
FUD!!!
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-21
hey!
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QRWoo
QRWoo
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2021-06-21
hey bros
U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U
U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak
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Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies came in for heavy selling on Monday, hurt by a tightening crackdown on trading and mining in China.</p>\n<p>Spot gold prices fell $4.8691 or 0.27%, to $1,778.08 an ounce.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech leads way to Wall Street rebound as Powell promises steady hand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech leads way to Wall Street rebound as Powell promises steady hand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 07:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - Wall Street rebounded Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell vowed not to raise rates too quickly as the dollar and oil gave up earlier gains.</p>\n<p>Led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , Wall Street closed Tuesday higher, bouncing back from a sell-off set off last week by a Fed policy update that suggested officials believed rates would rise more quickly to counter rising inflation.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq closed at another record high, as top-shelf tech companies resumed their growth trajectories.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.61 points, or 0.2% and the S&P 500 gained 21.65 points, or 0.51%. to 4,246.44 and the Nasdaq Composite added 111.79 points, or 0.79 percent, to 14,253.27.</p>\n<p>The MSCI world equity index , which tracks shares in 45 nations, rose 4.4 points or 0.62%.</p>\n<p>\"I really think there's a realization that this is a ripe environment: rates are still low and for stock investors, this hits a 'just right' tone,\" said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. \"The market is concerned about rising inflation numbers and was getting more unnerved as the Fed dismissed them until last week’s meeting.\"</p>\n<p>Testifying before Congress, Powell vowed that the Fed will not raise rates out of fear of potential rising inflation, and instead will prioritize a \"broad and inclusive\" recovery of the job market. He said recent price increases do not suggest higher rates are needed, and instead can be attributed to categories directly impacted by economic reopening.</p>\n<p>\"After the FOMC took the wind out of the reflation trade at the end of last week, that’s started to reverse over the last two days. It seems last week’s price action went too far,\" said Stephanie Roth, senior markets economist for J.P. Morgan Private Bank.</p>\n<p>Powell's remarks pushed yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries lower, dipping to yield 1.4649% after clearing 1.5% earlier in the day.</p>\n<p>The dollar also dipped as Powell spoke, with the dollar index falling 0.20% to 91.733 . It is holding below a two-month high of 92.408 reached on Friday.</p>\n<p>Oil slid slightly after Brent rose above $75 a barrel for the first time in over two years, as OPEC+ discussed raising oil production.</p>\n<p>Brent crude futures settled down 9 cents to $74.81 a barrel after hitting a session high of $75.30 a barrel, the strongest since April 25, 2019.</p>\n<p>U.S. West Texas Intermediate <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTI\">$(WTI)$</a> crude fell 60 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.06 a barrel.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin began making a comeback of sorts, climbing back above $30,000 after hitting lows not seen since January. The cryptocurrency last traded at $32,831, but has nearly halved in value over the last three months. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies came in for heavy selling on Monday, hurt by a tightening crackdown on trading and mining in China.</p>\n<p>Spot gold prices fell $4.8691 or 0.27%, to $1,778.08 an ounce.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","POWL":"Powell Industries"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145664330","content_text":"WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - Wall Street rebounded Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell vowed not to raise rates too quickly as the dollar and oil gave up earlier gains.\nLed by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , Wall Street closed Tuesday higher, bouncing back from a sell-off set off last week by a Fed policy update that suggested officials believed rates would rise more quickly to counter rising inflation.\nThe Nasdaq closed at another record high, as top-shelf tech companies resumed their growth trajectories.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.61 points, or 0.2% and the S&P 500 gained 21.65 points, or 0.51%. to 4,246.44 and the Nasdaq Composite added 111.79 points, or 0.79 percent, to 14,253.27.\nThe MSCI world equity index , which tracks shares in 45 nations, rose 4.4 points or 0.62%.\n\"I really think there's a realization that this is a ripe environment: rates are still low and for stock investors, this hits a 'just right' tone,\" said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital. \"The market is concerned about rising inflation numbers and was getting more unnerved as the Fed dismissed them until last week’s meeting.\"\nTestifying before Congress, Powell vowed that the Fed will not raise rates out of fear of potential rising inflation, and instead will prioritize a \"broad and inclusive\" recovery of the job market. He said recent price increases do not suggest higher rates are needed, and instead can be attributed to categories directly impacted by economic reopening.\n\"After the FOMC took the wind out of the reflation trade at the end of last week, that’s started to reverse over the last two days. It seems last week’s price action went too far,\" said Stephanie Roth, senior markets economist for J.P. Morgan Private Bank.\nPowell's remarks pushed yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries lower, dipping to yield 1.4649% after clearing 1.5% earlier in the day.\nThe dollar also dipped as Powell spoke, with the dollar index falling 0.20% to 91.733 . It is holding below a two-month high of 92.408 reached on Friday.\nOil slid slightly after Brent rose above $75 a barrel for the first time in over two years, as OPEC+ discussed raising oil production.\nBrent crude futures settled down 9 cents to $74.81 a barrel after hitting a session high of $75.30 a barrel, the strongest since April 25, 2019.\nU.S. West Texas Intermediate $(WTI)$ crude fell 60 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.06 a barrel.\nBitcoin began making a comeback of sorts, climbing back above $30,000 after hitting lows not seen since January. The cryptocurrency last traded at $32,831, but has nearly halved in value over the last three months. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies came in for heavy selling on Monday, hurt by a tightening crackdown on trading and mining in China.\nSpot gold prices fell $4.8691 or 0.27%, to $1,778.08 an ounce.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"GBPmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"JPYmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"POWL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"EURmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129417478,"gmtCreate":1624380946594,"gmtModify":1703835153338,"author":{"id":"3581679308355987","authorId":"3581679308355987","name":"QRWoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581679308355987","idStr":"3581679308355987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hey!","listText":"hey!","text":"hey!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129417478","repostId":"1118580429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118580429","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1624376537,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118580429?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 23:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Krispy Kreme eyes near $4 bln valuation in U.S. IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118580429","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 22 (Reuters) - Krispy Kreme Inc is looking to raise as much as $640 million through a U.S. init","content":"<p>June 22 (Reuters) - Krispy Kreme Inc is looking to raise as much as $640 million through a U.S. initial public offering, according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday, valuing the donut chain at nearly $4 billion. (Reporting by Sohini Podder in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Krispy Kreme eyes near $4 bln valuation in U.S. IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKrispy Kreme eyes near $4 bln valuation in U.S. IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 23:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 22 (Reuters) - Krispy Kreme Inc is looking to raise as much as $640 million through a U.S. initial public offering, according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday, valuing the donut chain at nearly $4 billion. (Reporting by Sohini Podder in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118580429","content_text":"June 22 (Reuters) - Krispy Kreme Inc is looking to raise as much as $640 million through a U.S. initial public offering, according to a regulatory filing on Tuesday, valuing the donut chain at nearly $4 billion. (Reporting by Sohini Podder in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DNUT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129576901,"gmtCreate":1624379181703,"gmtModify":1703835091363,"author":{"id":"3581679308355987","authorId":"3581679308355987","name":"QRWoo","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581679308355987","idStr":"3581679308355987"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"jp morgan thrash ","listText":"jp morgan thrash ","text":"jp morgan thrash","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129576901","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)- writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\" He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)- writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\" He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of 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bros","listText":"hey bros","text":"hey bros","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167845333","repostId":"1135081526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135081526","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624261638,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135081526?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135081526","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.</p>\n<p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.</p>\n<p>The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.</p>\n<p>Policy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.</p>\n<p><b>Key Gauges</b></p>\n<p>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.</p>\n<p>Data due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.</p>\n<p>“Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Dollar Faces Volatile Week as Fed Policy Makers Line Up to Speak\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 15:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.\nSt. Louis Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dollar-faces-volatile-week-064145743.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135081526","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The dollar faces a week of volatile trade as a slew of Federal Reserve speakers and U.S. inflation data test investors trying to gauge the pace of monetary tightening.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday before Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Tuesday. Friday will feature a reading on the central bank’s favored inflation gauge, while in between, other regional Fed chiefs discuss the economy and monetary policy.\nThe JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index has climbed sharply since the Fed projections last week showed more than one rate hike in 2023. In an indication of what what may be to come this week, two-year Treasury yields and the greenback jumped on Friday after Bullard said it may be appropriate for the central bank to start raising interest rates next year.\nPolicy makers will have a close eye on how hawkishly markets are taking their comments and forecasts, according to Vishnu Varathan, the Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “If markets fall into old habits of over-indulgence, then Fed attempts to rein in run-away hawks down the road should not surprise anyone,” he wrote in a research note.\nKey Gauges\nThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed on Monday after jumping 2% last week, the most since April 2020.\nData due Friday is projected to show year-on-year growth in core personal consumption expenditures probably quickened to 3.4% last month, from 3.1% in April, which was already the highest since 1992.\n“Market participants will be interested in whether Powell and Williams indicate concerns about an inflation overshoot,” according to a research note from Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “Signs that the FOMC is growing less certain about the inflation outlook is important for the policy outlook, and can support the U.S. dollar.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}