$COIN DIAGONAL 261127/261030 PUT 155.0/PUT 160.0$ Rolling down and out. Broke the major support that I was looking at. Can only wait for the next hype cycle to come back. Reminding myself of how coinbase follows btc again.....
Is COIN just leveraged Bitcoin, and what cushions it?
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ The short answer The share price mostly trades like leveraged Bitcoin. Over the last 52 weeks the correlation of weekly returns is 0.82, and COIN's beta to BTC is 1.19 over two years and 1.16 over one year. But the business has a second engine that runs on the Fed, not on crypto: in Q3, $430.6M of $1,215.6M total revenue (35.4%) came from USDC and interest. My read: that is the main cushion, and it is smaller than the "half of revenue is recurring" line suggests, because part of subscriptions and services (staking rewards) still moves with crypto prices. 1. The overlay: early at tops, late at bottoms On weekly closes indexed to COIN's listing week, COIN topped on 18 Jul 2025 and BTC on 3 Oct 2025, so COIN
$AMZN$ burned about $33.5B of free cash in Q3. In the same quarter it raised $48.1B of new long-term debt.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ It borrowed more than it burned. Versus history: twelve-month free cash flow is now minus $42.4B. A year ago it was plus $14.8B. Long-term debt went from $65.6B at the end of December to $173.1B on 30 September. That is about $107.5B added in nine months. First, Amazon's own explanation. The release says free cash flow fell "driven primarily by a year-over-year increase of $94.8 billion in purchases of property and equipment", and that this "primarily reflects investments in artificial intelligence". It also kept its guide of about $220B of cash capex for 2026. So the company's story is simple: we are building AI capacity, and AWS is growing 39% at a record 38.7% margin. That is the case it makes. Here is mine. Yeste