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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2024-06-23
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-25
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-23
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Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales
加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。
Regulation hits Bitcoin's mining machine market, Bitmain suspends spot mining machine sales
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-22
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-22
Like n comment, thank you so much
Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend
随着价值股也成为趋势股,投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。
Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-22
Like n comment, thank you very much
The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight
北京时间6月22日晚间消息,每日优鲜更新F-1招股书,计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票(ADS),定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。 现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码,购买至
The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-18
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-14
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Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously
本周迎来超级央行周,美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。 美国5月通胀已经高达5%,创出十三年新高,美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE?这已成为市场焦点。 著名经济学家任泽平近日表示,如果美联储货币政策
Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-05-20
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-05-19
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Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop
对于曾经高成长的龙头,市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和,基本的估值判断也将随之改变。 2021年2月中旬至5月,海底捞股价腰斩,由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不
Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop
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On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily stopped selling spot machines in order to ease customer shipment pressure. An insider of Bitmain told Jiemian News: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a comprehensive overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the public for the time being. 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On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily stopped selling spot machines in order to ease customer shipment pressure. An insider of Bitmain told Jiemian News: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a comprehensive overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the public for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dbfbd85956a77609a6a352c6752bcc","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129009844","content_text":"记者/司林威\n加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。\n6月23日,比特大陆对加密货币矿工表示,由于近期大量二手机器涌入市场,为缓解客户出货压力,暂时停售现货机器。\n比特大陆内部人士向界面新闻表示:“大方向是这样,但具体销售细节暂未接到通知。”\n同时,有消息称比特大陆已宣布全面向海外转移,特别是部分中高层员工正向海外转移。比特大陆方表示暂不方便对外透露。\n比特大陆是目前全球最大的比特币矿机厂商之一,近年来在AI领域也有大量布局。在6月19日于成都举行的行业交流会上,比特大陆发布了其新品,但并非为比特币专业矿机。会上比特大陆还打出“抱团取暖,拒绝恶性竞争”的标语。现场参会的矿工透露,海外挖矿业务成了本次交流会的主要议题。\n为何比特大陆要暂停现货矿机销售?本质还是受到国内监管冲击。\n随着内蒙古、新疆、四川、青海、云南等地陆续开始叫停比特币挖矿和清退各类矿场,除一部分矿机转移至中亚和海外,大量被清退的矿机被迫关机后流入二手矿机市场,直接冲击了原有的矿机市场。\n监管政策落地后,界面新闻记者获悉多位矿工已开始售卖矿机。有矿业公司已开始清退客户矿机,并开始清仓甩卖相关矿机。\n以矿机市场销售人员近几日的报价为例,比特大陆旗下蚂蚁S19系列某款矿机6月15日报价为4万元,6月23日报价已降至3万元关口。且据矿工透露,目前市场价格处于恐慌中的低点,有价无市,愿意接手的人并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129240951,"gmtCreate":1624375058273,"gmtModify":1703834928936,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129240951","repostId":"1191907311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129255294,"gmtCreate":1624374952718,"gmtModify":1703834925157,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you so much ","listText":"Like n comment, thank you so much ","text":"Like n comment, thank you so much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129255294","repostId":"1196342132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196342132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美国最大的独立第三方研究机构之一,成立20年,专为美股、港股、A股个人投资者提供前沿内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"弹道财经","id":"1031387410","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c"},"pubTimestamp":1624362521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196342132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196342132","media":"弹道财经","summary":"随着价值股也成为趋势股,投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。","content":"<p>By David Eifrig, PhD</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can grasp a kind of trading opportunity now, because it actually conforms to the ideas of these two bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two bosses reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions and are for communication only. Welcome to leave a message to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, should they side with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The success of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros is legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the \"downfall of the Bank of England\" period, or Buffett got a 1550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they all have a brilliant record, which is a success that many people can hardly replicate.</p><p>But if investors intend to imitate the investment routines of these two legends, they usually can only choose one big man to follow. Because the views of these two investment tycoons on volatility and risk are diametrically opposite. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven his strategy works-his return on investment is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide goes out will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks, but have not done their due diligence and are not adequately prepared for the decline, then investors will bear the brunt when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>Contrary to Buffett, Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, that is, what we often call chasing ups and killing downs), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble form, I will buy quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After the market breaks away from the fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with fixed earnings growth.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest according to investor sentiment.</b></p><p>It can be seen that from these two most successful investors in history, what we can see is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that a trend is forming and funds are flowing, do they want to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves at this time? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have been completely out of touch with reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and it's time to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to aggravate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett is the opposite. He might say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, as of now, Soros's trading method is mostly correct. However, we are also convinced that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>At present, a factor is emerging in the market, giving investors the opportunity to take sides with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big guys reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment. Simply put, they refer to stocks with low valuations. They can usually<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment index.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks mainly refer to those stocks whose prices continue to rise.<b>Generally speaking, they tend to generate positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>The value school believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders believe that if a stock is trading cheap, its price will usually continue to go lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks,<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But as value stocks also become trend stocks, investor interest in low-valuation, strong-trend stocks is building up in large numbers.</b>This may push these stocks higher continuously, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Stocks Return! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1031387410\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">弹道财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By David Eifrig, PhD</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can grasp a kind of trading opportunity now, because it actually conforms to the ideas of these two bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two bosses reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions and are for communication only. Welcome to leave a message to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, should they side with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The success of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros is legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the \"downfall of the Bank of England\" period, or Buffett got a 1550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they all have a brilliant record, which is a success that many people can hardly replicate.</p><p>But if investors intend to imitate the investment routines of these two legends, they usually can only choose one big man to follow. Because the views of these two investment tycoons on volatility and risk are diametrically opposite. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven his strategy works-his return on investment is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide goes out will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks, but have not done their due diligence and are not adequately prepared for the decline, then investors will bear the brunt when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>Contrary to Buffett, Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, that is, what we often call chasing ups and killing downs), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble form, I will buy quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After the market breaks away from the fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with fixed earnings growth.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest according to investor sentiment.</b></p><p>It can be seen that from these two most successful investors in history, what we can see is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that a trend is forming and funds are flowing, do they want to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves at this time? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have been completely out of touch with reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and it's time to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to aggravate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett is the opposite. He might say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, as of now, Soros's trading method is mostly correct. However, we are also convinced that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>At present, a factor is emerging in the market, giving investors the opportunity to take sides with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big guys reach the same goal by different routes?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment. Simply put, they refer to stocks with low valuations. They can usually<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment index.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks mainly refer to those stocks whose prices continue to rise.<b>Generally speaking, they tend to generate positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>The value school believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders believe that if a stock is trading cheap, its price will usually continue to go lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks,<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But as value stocks also become trend stocks, investor interest in low-valuation, strong-trend stocks is building up in large numbers.</b>This may push these stocks higher continuously, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fabf9c2bc6a3d13c57438fc00bbe4f1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196342132","content_text":"作者:David Eifrig博士\n摘要:无论你认可巴菲特,还是认同索罗斯,现在都可以把握一类交易机会,因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念!\n本文聚焦\n1、巴菲特VS索罗斯,你会站队谁?\n2、价值股正成为趋势股,两位大佬殊途同归?\n贝瑞研究声明:文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成,不作为直接投资建议,仅供交流,欢迎留言探讨相关话题。\nPART1\n巴菲特VS索罗斯,你会站队谁?\n在很多时候,进入市场的投资者都得面对一道选择题,是站队巴菲特还是站队索罗斯?他们背后代表的是两套投资哲学。\n投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功都颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元,还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报,都战绩赫赫,是很多人难以复制的成功。\n但如果投资者有意模仿这两位传奇人物的投资套路,通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为,这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点,是截然相反的。在大多数时候,投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营,要么站队索罗斯阵营。\n巴菲特以价值投资著称,他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者,不擅长做投机交易。长期来看,他已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。\n巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去,你才会知道谁在裸泳。”\n换句话说,就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险,却没有尽职做好调研,未对下跌做好充足的准备,那么在泡沫破裂时,投资者将会首当其冲。\n与巴菲特相反,索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中(译者注:趋势投资者,即我们常说的追涨杀跌),正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后,我就会赶紧买入,火上浇油一把。”\n在索罗斯看来,投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号,反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后,它们还会以前所未有的速度继续上涨,这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。\n在这种时候,索罗斯的投资哲学是抛开基本面,顺着投资者的情绪进行投资。\n由此可见,从这两位有史以来最成功的投资者身上,能看到的是截然相反的投资智慧。索罗斯想裸泳直至最后一波浪潮袭来,而巴菲特则会说,当心,你要穿好泳裤。\n这是潜藏在投资中的一个本质问题。\n当投资者看到一些市场苗头,比如看到趋势正在形成,资金正在流动,此时到底是要追随趋势、乘风破浪?还是该考虑“均值”回归,押注它们的真实价值?在大多数时候,这道选择题没有唯一正确的答案。\n比如在最近的“梗股(meme stock)”狂潮中,包括处境艰难的零售商GameStop (代码:GME)在内,一些股票已经完全脱离了现实。\n可能索罗斯会说市场太疯狂了,赚大钱的时机到了,于是他会找到GameStop相对完美的交易机会,来加剧这只股票的疯狂。\n而巴菲特则恰恰相反,他可能会说GameStop的价格是荒谬且不可持续的,他绝不会染指这种股票。\n如下图所示,截至目前,索罗斯的交易方法大部分是正确的。然而,我们也确信,巴菲特所持的判断,最终也会得到验证。\n\n但撇开那些疯狂的股票不谈,目前市场上正出现一个因素,让投资者有机会同时站队索罗斯和巴菲特。有一些类型的股票,可能同时得到索罗斯阵营和巴菲特阵营的青睐。\nPART2\n价值股正成为趋势股,两位大佬殊途同归?\n价值股是巴菲特最青睐的投资类型,简单来说,就是指估值较低的股票,它们通常可以用较低的市净率作为判断指标。价值投资者通常在这些业务稳固但被低估的股票中,发掘稳定的投资机会。\n而趋势股,则主要指那些价格不断上行的股票,通常来说,它们往往连续12个月为产生正的高收益率。\n绝大多数时候,价值投资者和趋势投资者对市场的看法是相反的。具体来说:\n价值派认为,如果一只股票的价格上涨了,那么它的价格就变得不再便宜。\n趋势派则认为,如果一只股票的交易价格很便宜,那么它的价格通常会继续走低。\n而随着经济走强,市场开始青睐价值股,价值股也有了趋势股的特征。\n\n这个机会可能是巨大的。\n华尔街的许多投资者和机构都自我认定是价值投资者,于是他们买入便宜的股票(站队巴菲特),而许多交易者和对冲基金,则更喜欢跟随趋势(站队索罗斯)。许多基于量化和算法的投资者会专门买入价值股或趋势股,因为它们对应某个类型。\n但随着价值股也成为趋势股,投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。这或将推动这些股票持续走高,形成更强的趋势,进而助长狂热。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129253312,"gmtCreate":1624374757336,"gmtModify":1703834917593,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you very much ","listText":"Like n comment, thank you very much ","text":"Like n comment, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129253312","repostId":"1142464181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142464181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624372497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142464181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142464181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息,每日优鲜更新F-1招股书,计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票(ADS),定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码,购买至","content":"<p>News on the evening of June 22, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Update the F-1 prospectus and plan to publicly issue 21 million American depositary shares (ADS) with a pricing range of US $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis, etc. will continue to increase their weight and buy ADSs worth up to 90 million US dollars.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 is approximately 3.5467 billion yuan, 6.0014 billion yuan, and 6.1304 billion yuan respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Daily Youxian's gross profit was 304 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and an increase of 128.5% in 2020 to 1.1904 billion yuan. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 510.8 million yuan, compared with 189 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses of Youxian were 2.2316 billion yuan, 2.9094 billion yuan, and 1.6492 billion yuan respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the daily net loss of Youxian was 194.7 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 610.3 million yuan. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net losses (non-GAAP standards) of Daily Youxian were 2.2159 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, and 1.5897 billion yuan, respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the adjusted net loss of Daily Youxian was 175.8 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 598.4 million yuan.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe daily fresh pricing range is 13-16 US dollars/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>News on the evening of June 22, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily excellent fresh</a>Update the F-1 prospectus and plan to publicly issue 21 million American depositary shares (ADS) with a pricing range of US $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>, U.S. long-term fund Davis, etc. will continue to increase their weight and buy ADSs worth up to 90 million US dollars.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 is approximately 3.5467 billion yuan, 6.0014 billion yuan, and 6.1304 billion yuan respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Daily Youxian's net revenue was 1.6898 billion yuan, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, the net revenue was 1.5302 billion yuan.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Daily Youxian's gross profit was 304 million yuan in 2018, an increase of 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and an increase of 128.5% in 2020 to 1.1904 billion yuan. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 510.8 million yuan, compared with 189 million yuan in the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the daily net losses of Youxian were 2.2316 billion yuan, 2.9094 billion yuan, and 1.6492 billion yuan respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the daily net loss of Youxian was 194.7 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 610.3 million yuan. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net losses (non-GAAP standards) of Daily Youxian were 2.2159 billion yuan, 2.777 billion yuan, and 1.5897 billion yuan, respectively. For the quarter ended March 31, 2020, the adjusted net loss of Daily Youxian was 175.8 million yuan, and the loss in the same period in 2021 was 598.4 million yuan.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc6d948584260429c150c1dd44a898f","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142464181","content_text":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息,每日优鲜更新F-1招股书,计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票(ADS),定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码,购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书显示,每日优鲜2018年-2020年的净营收分别约为35.467亿元, 60.014亿元,61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月,每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元,截止2021年3月31日的三个月,净营收为15.302亿元。\n招股书还显示,每日优鲜的毛利润在2018年为3.04亿元,2019年增长71.3%了至5.209亿元,2020年再增长128.5%,达到11.904亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月,每日优鲜的毛利为5.108亿元,2021年的同期为1.89亿元。\n2018年至2020年,每日优鲜净亏损分别为22.316亿元,29.094亿元、16.492亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度,每日优鲜净亏损1.947亿元,2021年同期亏损6.103亿元。2018年、2019年和2020年,每日优鲜的调整后净亏损(非GAAP标准)分别为22.159亿元、27.77亿元、15.897亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度,每日优鲜调整后净亏损为1.758亿元,2021年同期亏损5.984亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like & comment, thank you ","listText":"Like & comment, thank you ","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":"2144164740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184070530,"gmtCreate":1623679294220,"gmtModify":1704208499930,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like & comment, thank you ","listText":"Like & comment, thank you ","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184070530","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周,美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%,创出十三年新高,美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE?这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示,如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face? //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Waiting Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p>U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>//The super central bank is coming//</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face? //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.</p><p>Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.</p><p>The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//</b></p><p>If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,<b>CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)</p><p>The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.</p><p>The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 per barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, eventually triggering currency devaluation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.</p><p>He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.</b></p><p><b>Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周,美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%,创出十三年新高,美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE?这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示,如果美联储货币政策正常化,或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策,会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来 //\n本周,美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中,最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点,美联储将公布利率决议;半小时后,美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表:\n\nWind梳理发现,从目前市场预期来看,美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点,巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n// 通胀飙升,美联储要变脸? //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模(QE),将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现,目前主流看法是,美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号,而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道:“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”(通胀已经走高,主要反映了暂时性因素)。因此,对于6月的利率决议来说,美联储是否会删除这一表述,预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号,美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n// 美国CPI创近13年新高 //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场,通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示,5月CPI同比升5%,创2008年8月来新高,预期升4.7%,前值升4.2%,创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n(图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块)\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比,年度通胀指标得到了提振,当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌,价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据,直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示,截止4月,全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%,为2005年12月以来最大涨幅,包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示,4月初至5月底,美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计,未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n// 通胀数据公布,市场并未恐慌 //\n不过值得注意的是,6月11日美国通胀数据超预期,但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天,美国三大股指集体收涨,涨幅均在1%之内;欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%,报1901.3美元/盎司;国际原油期货收盘普涨,美油7月合约涨0.19%,报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一,LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度,市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划,并预计在可预见的未来,通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划,其超低利率也保持不变。\n// 任泽平:警惕美联储加息缩表风险 //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后,市场并未出现恐慌,但是美国通胀持续走高,对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示,美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本,除此之外,更广泛的风险是,美国经济将领先于新兴经济体,这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券,最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示,18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁,警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示,如果按照市场预计,10月份前后,美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%,到年底基本接种完毕,美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调,现在全球资产价格估值都很高,中国已经货币政策正常化了,如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化,或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策,会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强,资金从新市场流出,土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望,他提醒投资者记住三点:\n第一点,一季度是经济高点,二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点,大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了,高点临近了。\n第三点,市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130356214,"gmtCreate":1621515127938,"gmtModify":1704358874764,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130356214","repostId":"2136317942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194869875,"gmtCreate":1621354366597,"gmtModify":1704356367897,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorIdStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194869875","repostId":"1187734006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187734006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团,引入百年历史的《巴伦》(Barron's)独家内容,打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1621339333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187734006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 20:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187734006","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"对于曾经高成长的龙头,市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和,基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月,海底捞股价腰斩,由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不","content":"<p>For the once high-growth leader, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, from about 85 Hong Kong dollars to around 44 Hong Kong dollars. The direct incentive is that the performance recovery is less than expected, specifically, the decline in profits and turnover rates.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research report published in May this year only gave Haidilao a rating of \"keeping pace with the market\" with a target price of HK $56; The report revealed that the overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in April was less than 3, which was lower than March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs' report published earlier in March gave a rating of \"neutral\" with a target price of HK $57; The report said at the time that the slow recovery speed may pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term-the big bank rating is neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight\", and has always been regarded by many investors as similar \"sell\".</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a crimson sea, and this matter is an \"elephant in the room\", but for a long time, investors have treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry status and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation level is higher than that of peer companies like Yum China all year round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was COVID-19 pandemic who interrupted the inertia of relevant cognition. In 2020, the number of Haidilao stores will grow against the trend, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 shows that the marginal improvement that can be brought about by continuous store expansion is weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? The question should be divided into two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They are actually not the same question, and the answers to the two will not come simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Turnover rate crisis? Actually, it's a passenger flow crisis</b></p><p>The most discussed key indicator of Haidilao in the market is the turnover rate.</p><p>There are only two ways to improve the turnover rate of restaurants: First, shorten the dining time of customers; Second, improve customers' willingness to wait. When eating hot pot, what you eat is time. Haidilao's focus on maintaining the turnover rate is obviously the second point.</p><p>As we all know, Haidilao has created a complete set of value-added services to appease waiting customers, and no one in the catering industry has matched it for many years. Then, the preliminary conclusion about the decline in Haidilao's turnover rate is probably: it's not that the customers who come are unwilling to wait, but that not so many customers come.</p><p>We can use the two data of \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"per capita consumption of customers\" in the company's financial report to simply calculate the number of customers dining in Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was 6.481625 billion yuan and 5.930587 billion yuan respectively, and the per capita consumption of customers in first-tier cities was 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan respectively. By dividing \"income\" by \"per capita consumption\", we can see that in 2019, the number of customers of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was approximately 58.87 million, while the data in 2020 was 51.038 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Operating income of Haidilao restaurants by geographical region (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key performance indicators of Haidilao restaurant (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, the total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao was 1,298, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% from 768 in 2019. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, Haidilao restaurants served more than 250 million customers, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% from 244 million in 2019.</p><p>At the same time, the turnover rate of Haidilao's newly opened restaurants in 2020 is only 2.8, a decrease of more than 30% from 4.1 in 2019.</p><p>Morgan Stanley revealed in a recent report that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was lower than 3, a month-on-month decrease from March, and only about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed is basically in line with market estimates, and the revenue scale of low-tier cities has seen considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that increasing the number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening</b>。</p><p>In April, the hot search topic on Weibo of \"17 yuan to eat Haidilao\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But here's the more practical problem: customers still like you, but they just don't eat you.</p><p>So, where do the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Substitutes are diversified, and the hot pot track sea is too red</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's turnover rate and stock price can return to the upward track, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD (Meal Collection), in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to fall back to the level of 2018, about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, many predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-level market; In the venture capital world, this is regarded as one of the main bases for betting on this track; New entrepreneurs, traditional famous enterprises and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of trillion-level scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The concentration of the hot pot market is actually very low</b>。 According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020, the CR5 of China's hot pot market is only 5.5%. The demand for eating hot pot is divided into fragments. Besides the faucet, there are many participants-</p><p>Category and brand innovation continues. Xiaolongkan and Tan Yaxue challenged Haidilao in taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the unit price per customer (whether successful or not); Lazy Bear Hot Pot received nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, fish in sour soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their origin to the whole country for several years.</p><p>The hot pot base material and seasoning industry is heating up. The \"Bottom Material Storm: In-depth Report on Hot Pot Bottom Material Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May pointed out that hot pot brands entering the C-end and traditional condiment companies expanding their categories are making the industry increasingly competitive. The addiction to spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the accelerated growth of the industry on the family side. The listed companies involved in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc.</p><p>The rise of hot pot ingredients supermarkets. Hema Fresh launches \"hot pot season\"; Daily Youxian, Dingdong Maicai and other e-commerce companies make efforts; Yasui Foods and others took the opportunity to increase the market share of quick-frozen ingredients or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-border attempts occur frequently. Mengniu and Gome enter the game; BESTORE and three squirrels are making self-healthy pots; Even station B came to mix in. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even the trendy small household appliances with optimized design and function are fueling the flames.</p><p>Of course, Haidilao has participated in all these things and achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a small proportion of its total revenue, which is not enough to make up for the decline in the core indicators of the company's overall business. Take food delivery as an example. In 2020, Haidilao's food delivery business revenue increased from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; But in terms of revenue share, it only rose from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>Here I would like to reiterate the previous point,<b>The color of the red sea of hot pot is so dark that even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, the marginal utility will hardly reach the level of the early years</b>。</p><p>For the once high-growth leader, what the market values is not the growth rate, but the \"growth rate of the growth rate\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change.</p><p>It's not that the items listed above can fundamentally destroy the in-store dinner hot pot market with more social functions and ritual sense-as mentioned earlier, they are inherently scattered, but that the diversification of substitutes is inhibiting the re-growth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. According to data from Meituan Dianping, as of 2020, hot pot accounts for more than 13% of China's dinner market, which is already the sub-category with the highest share. We cannot be too optimistic that the total demand of the market can still expand at a high speed, or that the proportion of hot pot categories can still increase significantly.</p><p>There is also a possibility that hidden competition comes from the industry next door.</p><p>In the years before the word \"online celebrity\" became rampant, Haidilao was once the leader of the online celebrity world. The business community is circulating \"You Can't Learn Haidilao\", and good friends are keen to experience responsiveness and meticulousness together. The service quality of Haidilao has almost become an urban legend in the 1910s.</p><p>Until now,<b>This generation of young people dedicated the matter of \"queuing\" to milk tea and other online celebrity stores</b>。 According to NCBD data, young women are still the main group of hot pot consumers so far; In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of Chinese hot pot consumers; Among them, 26-30 years old accounted for 30.1%, and 18-25 years old accounted for 28.1%. Let's not speculate rigorously. In the actual consumption scene, there are many formats competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers, which are far better than ten years ago.</p><p>The consumer preference of waiting for Haidilao has faded. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and small snacks are no longer novelty. More importantly, as the ultimate service experience of core competitiveness, with the gradual desensitization of customers and the rise of thresholds, the magic is also decaying. So far, we haven't discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by menu price increases and other issues.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be fine?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy is to pick up high-quality stores on dips, with a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, there was a net increase of 65 in first-tier cities in mainland China, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth rate slowed down; There was a net increase of 167 in second-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50%; There was a net increase of 257 companies in third-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. In 2021, as of the end of March, the company has signed 91 newly contracted stores. In addition to the stores that were signed last year but have not yet opened, it is expected that the number of stores opened in 2021 will still be more than 500.</p><p>For the whole year of 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. The net profit fell 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and higher salary levels, staff costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortization increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs rose from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowing interest. Under the circumstances that operations were shut down and cash flow withered during the epidemic, Haidilao borrowed a large amount of money to support the expansion of stores against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings were 3.9894 billion yuan.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? This question has to be split in two. (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They're not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, with the deepening of domestic vaccination progress, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover with the recovery of people's social habits. At the same time, Haidilao's growth in low-tier cities is worth looking forward to. The more common view in the market is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's report, Haidilao's turnover rate in April this year was less than 3;<b>It should be pointed out that even this turnover rate, which is considered to be lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average</b>。 According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD, in China's catering industry, the turnover rate of dinners is about 2.1, fast food snacks can reach more than 8, and the overall turnover rate of hot pot format is about 2.3. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, the turnover rate of Coucou Hotpot was 2.9 in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate of 4.8 in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not that Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how good it can be and whether it can continue to become better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should beware of the possibility of its valuation center moving downward.</p><p>In the restaurant chain format, the historical trajectory of Starbucks' valuation changes can provide some reference. In the period of cutting-edge brand rise and rapid expansion, its P/E has continued to be higher than 50 times or even more than 100 times. After the end of the high-speed growth period, its P/E adjusts and fluctuates in the range of 20 times or even below; After the company returned to a steady upward track, Starbucks' valuation has been rationally restored to a large extent, but it has not returned to the level of the high-speed growth period.</p><p>For investors who want to buy Haidilao at the bottom, it is necessary to cautiously wait for a more certain signal of performance recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaidilao fell into the deep red sea, and it could not be fished just by opening a shop\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For the once high-growth leader, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, from about 85 Hong Kong dollars to around 44 Hong Kong dollars. The direct incentive is that the performance recovery is less than expected, specifically, the decline in profits and turnover rates.</p><p>Morgan Stanley's research report published in May this year only gave Haidilao a rating of \"keeping pace with the market\" with a target price of HK $56; The report revealed that the overall table turnover rate of Haidilao restaurants in April was less than 3, which was lower than March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs' report published earlier in March gave a rating of \"neutral\" with a target price of HK $57; The report said at the time that the slow recovery speed may pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term-the big bank rating is neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight\", and has always been regarded by many investors as similar \"sell\".</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a crimson sea, and this matter is an \"elephant in the room\", but for a long time, investors have treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry status and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation level is higher than that of peer companies like Yum China all year round.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was COVID-19 pandemic who interrupted the inertia of relevant cognition. In 2020, the number of Haidilao stores will grow against the trend, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 shows that the marginal improvement that can be brought about by continuous store expansion is weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? The question should be divided into two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They are actually not the same question, and the answers to the two will not come simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Turnover rate crisis? Actually, it's a passenger flow crisis</b></p><p>The most discussed key indicator of Haidilao in the market is the turnover rate.</p><p>There are only two ways to improve the turnover rate of restaurants: First, shorten the dining time of customers; Second, improve customers' willingness to wait. When eating hot pot, what you eat is time. Haidilao's focus on maintaining the turnover rate is obviously the second point.</p><p>As we all know, Haidilao has created a complete set of value-added services to appease waiting customers, and no one in the catering industry has matched it for many years. Then, the preliminary conclusion about the decline in Haidilao's turnover rate is probably: it's not that the customers who come are unwilling to wait, but that not so many customers come.</p><p>We can use the two data of \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"per capita consumption of customers\" in the company's financial report to simply calculate the number of customers dining in Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, the revenue of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was 6.481625 billion yuan and 5.930587 billion yuan respectively, and the per capita consumption of customers in first-tier cities was 110.1 yuan and 116.2 yuan respectively. By dividing \"income\" by \"per capita consumption\", we can see that in 2019, the number of customers of Haidilao restaurants in first-tier cities was approximately 58.87 million, while the data in 2020 was 51.038 million, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 13%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Operating income of Haidilao restaurants by geographical region (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key performance indicators of Haidilao restaurant (data table intercepted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, the total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao was 1,298, a year-on-year increase of nearly 70% from 768 in 2019. According to the financial report, in the whole year of 2020, Haidilao restaurants served more than 250 million customers, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% from 244 million in 2019.</p><p>At the same time, the turnover rate of Haidilao's newly opened restaurants in 2020 is only 2.8, a decrease of more than 30% from 4.1 in 2019.</p><p>Morgan Stanley revealed in a recent report that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was lower than 3, a month-on-month decrease from March, and only about 70% of the level of the same period in 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed is basically in line with market estimates, and the revenue scale of low-tier cities has seen considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that increasing the number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening</b>。</p><p>In April, the hot search topic on Weibo of \"17 yuan to eat Haidilao\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But here's the more practical problem: customers still like you, but they just don't eat you.</p><p>So, where do the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>Substitutes are diversified, and the hot pot track sea is too red</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's turnover rate and stock price can return to the upward track, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD (Meal Collection), in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to fall back to the level of 2018, about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, many predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-level market; In the venture capital world, this is regarded as one of the main bases for betting on this track; New entrepreneurs, traditional famous enterprises and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of trillion-level scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The concentration of the hot pot market is actually very low</b>。 According to the data of China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020, the CR5 of China's hot pot market is only 5.5%. The demand for eating hot pot is divided into fragments. Besides the faucet, there are many participants-</p><p>Category and brand innovation continues. Xiaolongkan and Tan Yaxue challenged Haidilao in taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the unit price per customer (whether successful or not); Lazy Bear Hot Pot received nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, fish in sour soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their origin to the whole country for several years.</p><p>The hot pot base material and seasoning industry is heating up. The \"Bottom Material Storm: In-depth Report on Hot Pot Bottom Material Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May pointed out that hot pot brands entering the C-end and traditional condiment companies expanding their categories are making the industry increasingly competitive. The addiction to spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the accelerated growth of the industry on the family side. The listed companies involved in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Food, Haitian Flavor Industry, etc.</p><p>The rise of hot pot ingredients supermarkets. Hema Fresh launches \"hot pot season\"; Daily Youxian, Dingdong Maicai and other e-commerce companies make efforts; Yasui Foods and others took the opportunity to increase the market share of quick-frozen ingredients or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-border attempts occur frequently. Mengniu and Gome enter the game; BESTORE and three squirrels are making self-healthy pots; Even station B came to mix in. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even the trendy small household appliances with optimized design and function are fueling the flames.</p><p>Of course, Haidilao has participated in all these things and achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a small proportion of its total revenue, which is not enough to make up for the decline in the core indicators of the company's overall business. Take food delivery as an example. In 2020, Haidilao's food delivery business revenue increased from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%; But in terms of revenue share, it only rose from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>Here I would like to reiterate the previous point,<b>The color of the red sea of hot pot is so dark that even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, the marginal utility will hardly reach the level of the early years</b>。</p><p>For the once high-growth leader, what the market values is not the growth rate, but the \"growth rate of the growth rate\". Once the slope of growth becomes moderate, the basic valuation judgment will also change.</p><p>It's not that the items listed above can fundamentally destroy the in-store dinner hot pot market with more social functions and ritual sense-as mentioned earlier, they are inherently scattered, but that the diversification of substitutes is inhibiting the re-growth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. According to data from Meituan Dianping, as of 2020, hot pot accounts for more than 13% of China's dinner market, which is already the sub-category with the highest share. We cannot be too optimistic that the total demand of the market can still expand at a high speed, or that the proportion of hot pot categories can still increase significantly.</p><p>There is also a possibility that hidden competition comes from the industry next door.</p><p>In the years before the word \"online celebrity\" became rampant, Haidilao was once the leader of the online celebrity world. The business community is circulating \"You Can't Learn Haidilao\", and good friends are keen to experience responsiveness and meticulousness together. The service quality of Haidilao has almost become an urban legend in the 1910s.</p><p>Until now,<b>This generation of young people dedicated the matter of \"queuing\" to milk tea and other online celebrity stores</b>。 According to NCBD data, young women are still the main group of hot pot consumers so far; In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of Chinese hot pot consumers; Among them, 26-30 years old accounted for 30.1%, and 18-25 years old accounted for 28.1%. Let's not speculate rigorously. In the actual consumption scene, there are many formats competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers, which are far better than ten years ago.</p><p>The consumer preference of waiting for Haidilao has faded. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and small snacks are no longer novelty. More importantly, as the ultimate service experience of core competitiveness, with the gradual desensitization of customers and the rise of thresholds, the magic is also decaying. So far, we haven't discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by menu price increases and other issues.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be fine?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy is to pick up high-quality stores on dips, with a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, there was a net increase of 65 in first-tier cities in mainland China, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth rate slowed down; There was a net increase of 167 in second-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50%; There was a net increase of 257 companies in third-tier cities, a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. In 2021, as of the end of March, the company has signed 91 newly contracted stores. In addition to the stores that were signed last year but have not yet opened, it is expected that the number of stores opened in 2021 will still be more than 500.</p><p>For the whole year of 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. The net profit fell 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and higher salary levels, staff costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortization increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs rose from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowing interest. Under the circumstances that operations were shut down and cash flow withered during the epidemic, Haidilao borrowed a large amount of money to support the expansion of stores against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings were 3.9894 billion yuan.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be fine? This question has to be split in two. (1) When will Haidilao's operation return to its former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price be revived? They're not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, with the deepening of domestic vaccination progress, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover with the recovery of people's social habits. At the same time, Haidilao's growth in low-tier cities is worth looking forward to. The more common view in the market is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley's report, Haidilao's turnover rate in April this year was less than 3;<b>It should be pointed out that even this turnover rate, which is considered to be lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average</b>。 According to the data of China Hotel Association and NCBD, in China's catering industry, the turnover rate of dinners is about 2.1, fast food snacks can reach more than 8, and the overall turnover rate of hot pot format is about 2.3. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, the turnover rate of Coucou Hotpot was 2.9 in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate of 4.8 in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not that Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how good it can be and whether it can continue to become better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should beware of the possibility of its valuation center moving downward.</p><p>In the restaurant chain format, the historical trajectory of Starbucks' valuation changes can provide some reference. In the period of cutting-edge brand rise and rapid expansion, its P/E has continued to be higher than 50 times or even more than 100 times. After the end of the high-speed growth period, its P/E adjusts and fluctuates in the range of 20 times or even below; After the company returned to a steady upward track, Starbucks' valuation has been rationally restored to a large extent, but it has not returned to the level of the high-speed growth period.</p><p>For investors who want to buy Haidilao at the bottom, it is necessary to cautiously wait for a more certain signal of performance recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f2c25e060d113f3768c45cafc16292","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187734006","content_text":"对于曾经高成长的龙头,市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和,基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月,海底捞股价腰斩,由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不及预期,具体而言是利润和翻台率下滑。\n摩根士丹利于今年5月发表的研究报告仅给予海底捞“与大市同步”评级,目标价56港元;该报告透露,海底捞餐厅4月的整体翻台率小于3,低于3月,也低于市场预期。高盛更早于3月发表的报告给出的评级是“中性”,目标价57港元;报告当时称,翻台恢复速度缓慢,短期内可能对海底捞的收益和估值构成风险——大行评级既非“买入”,也非“增持”,向来被很多投资者视同为近似“卖出”。\n中国的火锅市场早已是深红色的海,这件事是“房间里的大象”,但在相当长的时间里,投资者对海底捞是区别对待的。基于行业地位和品牌美誉,海底捞的估值水平常年高于百胜中国这样的同业公司。\n\n是新冠疫情打断了相关认知的惯性。2020年,海底捞的门店数量逆势增长,但2021年一季度的情况显示,不断拓店所能带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n海底捞还会好吗?提问还要一分为二:(1)海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平?(2)海底捞的股价能否重振?它们其实并不是同一个问题,两者的答案也不会同步到来。\n1、翻台率危机?其实是客流量危机\n海底捞被市场讨论最多的关键指标是翻台率。\n餐馆提升翻台率的方法无非两点:一,缩短顾客用餐时间;二,提升顾客等位意愿。吃火锅,吃的就是时间,海底捞维护翻台率的重心显然在于第二点。\n众所周知,海底捞开创出一整套安抚等位顾客的增值服务,餐饮界多年来无人能出其右。那么,关于海底捞翻台率下滑的初步结论恐怕是:不是来了的顾客不愿意等,而是没有那么多顾客到来。\n我们可以使用公司财报中的“餐厅总收入”和“顾客人均消费”这两项数据,来简单计算一下海底捞的顾客就餐人次。\n2019年、2020年,海底捞餐厅在一线城市的收入分别是64.81625亿元、59.30587亿元,一线城市的顾客人均消费分别为110.1元、116.2元。以“收入”除以“人均消费”可知,2019年,海底捞餐厅在一线城市的顾客人次大约是5887万人,而2020年的数据是5103.8万人,同比减少了大约13%。\n\n根据地理区域划分的海底捞餐厅经营收入(数据表格截取自公司财报)\n\n海底捞餐厅关键表现指标(数据表格截取自公司财报)\n至2020年末,海底捞经营餐厅总数为1298家,较2019年的768家同比增加接近70%。而据财报,2020年全年,海底捞餐厅服务顾客超2.5亿人次,较2019年的2.44亿人次同比增长仅约2.5%。\n同时,海底捞2020年新开餐厅的翻台率仅为2.8,较2019年的4.1下降了超过30%。\n而摩根士丹利在近期报告中透露,2021年4月,海底捞旗下餐厅翻台率低于3,较3月环比下跌,仅为2019年同期水平的约70%。\n参照来看,虽然该公司的开店速度基本符合市场预估,且低线城市的收入规模有可观的同比增长,但是,投资者有理由怀疑,不断增加新店数量能为海底捞带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n4月,“17元吃海底捞”的微博热搜话题表明,海底捞并没丧失主流大众的关注和好感。但更实际的问题是:顾客还喜欢你,他们只是不去吃你了。\n那么,顾客去了哪里?\n2、替代品多样化,火锅赛道海太红了\n要讨论海底捞的翻台率和股价能否重回上升轨道,首先需要更新对火锅市场的认知。\n中国饭店协会和NCBD(餐宝典)的数据显示,2019年,中国火锅市场的总收入规模达到了9600亿元,2020年,该数字预计已回落至2018年的水平,大约8800亿元。\n自2018年以来,早有多方预测指出,火锅将是一个万亿级别的市场;在创投界,这被当作是下注该赛道的主要依据之一;创业新锐、传统名企、娱乐明星,都在开火锅店……\n\n但对于二级市场的具体公司来说,万亿级规模的意义,并不像看上去那么大。原因在于,火锅市场的集中度其实非常低。中商产业研究院2020年的数据显示,中国火锅市场的CR5仅为5.5%。吃火锅的需求被碎片化地瓜分,龙头之外,参与者众——\n品类与品牌创新不断。小龙坎和谭鸭血在口味和体验上挑战了海底捞;呷哺呷哺谋求提升客单价(且不论成功与否);懒熊火锅在2月份获得了近亿元A轮融资。潮汕牛肉锅、滇式火锅、酸汤鱼、椰子鸡……数年来各自从原产地向全国传播。\n火锅底料和调料行业升温。招商证券5月发表的《底料风暴:火锅底料产业深度报告》指出,切入C端的火锅品牌和扩张品类的传统调味品企业正使该行业竞争日益激烈。而辣味成瘾性和懒人经济,驱动了该行业在家庭端的增长加速。报告中涉及的上市公司包括颐海国际、天味食品、海天味业等。\n火锅食材超市兴起。盒马鲜生推出“火锅季”;每日优鲜、叮咚买菜等电商发力;安井食品等趁机提升速冻食材或预制菜的市占率。\n跨界尝试频现。蒙牛、国美入局;良品铺子和三只松鼠在做自嗨锅;连B站都来掺合,2021年3月,哔哩哔哩在上海为其纪录片《生活如沸》开了一家官方体验店。\n新冠疫情促进了宅家吃火锅习惯的培养,连设计和功能优化的新潮小家电也在推波助澜。\n凡此种种,海底捞当然多有参与,也取得了可见的增长,但这些业务在其总收入中占比很小,不足以弥补公司整体业务核心指标的下滑。以外卖为例,2020年,海底捞外卖业务收入从2019年的4.48亿元上升到7.17亿元,同比增长了60%;但在收入占比方面,仅从1.7%上升至2.5%。\n这里要重申前文的观点,火锅红海的颜色如此之深,海底捞继续开店的策略即使奏效,边际效用也难以达到早年的水平。\n对于曾经高成长的龙头,市场看重的不是增速,而是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和,基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n并不是说,以上列举的事项,能从根本上破坏更具社交功能和仪式感的到店正餐火锅市场——如前所述,它们本来就很分散,而是说,替代品的多样化在抑制海底捞等行业龙头的再成长。\n因为基数已经很高。来自美团点评的数据显示,截至2020年,在中国的正餐市场中,火锅的占比超过13%,已经是其中份额最高的细分品类。我们不能过于乐观地认为,市场的总需求还能高速扩张,或是火锅品类的占比仍能大幅提升。\n还有一种离得稍远的可能性是,隐性竞争还来自隔壁行业。\n在“网红”这个词还没泛滥的岁月里,海底捞曾经就是网红界的魁首。商业界在传阅《海底捞你学不会》,好朋友们热衷于结伴体验有求必应和无微不至。海底捞的服务品质,几乎成为本世纪10年代的都市传说。\n到如今,这届年轻人把“排队”这件事献给了奶茶和其他网红店。NCBD的数据显示,年轻女性迄今仍是火锅消费的主要人群;2020年,中国火锅消费者的女性占比是57.1%;其中26—30岁占比30.1%,18—25岁占比28.1%。不严谨地推测一下,在实际消费场景中,跟火锅店争夺等位顾客的业态之多,远胜于十年前。\n等位就等海底捞的消费者偏好有所淡化。由美甲和小零食组成的增值套餐不再新奇。更关键的是,作为核心竞争力的极致服务体验,随着顾客的逐渐脱敏和阈值抬升,魔力也在衰变。至此,我们还未讨论菜单涨价等问题造成的顾客满意度下降。\n3、海底捞还会好吗\n2020年,海底捞的策略是逢低拾取优质店铺,全年净增530家门店。其中,在中国大陆一线城市净增65家,上升至255家,同比增34%,增速放缓;二线城市净增167家,同比增约50%;三线城市净增257家,同比增约132%。2021年,截至3月末,该公司新签约门店91家,加上去年已签约、未开业的店面,预计2021年全年的开店数量仍将在500家以上。\n2020年全年,海底捞营收仍有7.8%的同比增长,达到286亿元。而净利润同比下降86%,为3.1亿元。经营成本方面,原材料及易耗品成本同比上升了9.1%;由于业务扩张和薪资水平提高,员工成本同比上升了21.1%。折旧及摊销同比上升了60.4%。\n海底捞的财报亦指出,公司财务成本从2019年的人民币2.368亿元上升到2020年的人民币4.456亿元,同比增长了88.2%,主要由租赁负债利息和银行借款利息增加所致。在疫情中经营停摆、现金流枯萎的情况下,海底捞借入了大额款项来支撑逆势扩店。截至2020年12月31日,其银行借款为39.894亿元。\n海底捞还会好吗?这个提问还要一分为二。(1)海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平?(2)海底捞的股价能否重振?它们其实并不是同一个问题。\n在经营层面,随着国内疫苗接种进度的深入,火锅店的业绩会随人们的社交习惯恢复进一步复苏。同时,海底捞在低线城市的增长是值得期待的。市场较普遍的观点是,海底捞在恢复,但恢复速度较缓。\n据摩根士丹利的报告,海底捞今年4月的翻台率小于3;需要指出的是,即使是这个被认为不及预期的翻台率,依然要显著高于行业均值。中国饭店协会和NCBD的数据显示,在中国餐饮业中,正餐的翻台率在2.1左右,快餐小吃可以达到8以上,而火锅业态整体的翻台率约为2.3。依据呷哺呷哺的财报,凑凑火锅的翻台率2019年为2.9,2020年降至2.5。换言之,海底捞餐厅在2019年时高达4.8的翻台率,是行业均值的两倍。\n现在的问题,不是海底捞不再优秀,而是关于它能优秀到何种程度、能不断变得更为优秀的预期是否合理。\n所以在股价层面,投资者应该提防其估值中枢下移的可能性。\n在餐饮连锁业态中,星巴克的估值变化历史轨迹可以提供某种参考。在身为新锐、品牌崛起、高速扩张的时期,其市盈率曾持续高于50倍、甚至百倍以上。而高速成长期结束后,其市盈率在20倍乃至以下区间调整、震荡;待公司重回平稳上升的轨道后,星巴克的估值得到很大程度的理性修复,但并未回到高速成长期的水平。\n对想要抄底海底捞的投资者而言,谨慎等待更具确定性的业绩复苏信号,是很有必要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}