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SP Sharma

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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-10-14
  Share your opinion about this news…
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-10-03
  A strong US dollar, could prove very negative for earning of Companies (even though currently lot of negative sentiment is perceived to be priced in the market). So may need to further downgrade earnings estimate.
  Global Stocks Pin Hopes of Year-End Rally on Earnings Resilience
  Some bad news is already priced in heading into results seasonExtreme investor pessimism could also
  Global Stocks Pin Hopes of Year-End Rally on Earnings Resilience
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-09-19
  Good insights. Thanks for sharing.
  The S&P 500: There Will Be Blood
  SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summe
  The S&P 500: There Will Be Blood
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-09-08
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-08-04
  Ok
  Wall Street's "Fear Gauge" in Limbo As Big Investors Keep Shunning Stocks
  (Reuters) - Wall Street’s most closely watched gauge of market anxiety shows expectations of choppy
  Wall Street's "Fear Gauge" in Limbo As Big Investors Keep Shunning Stocks
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-08-02
  Ok
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-06-23
  $Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd(TAK)$Any idea when is the Next Dividend payout date for Takeda?
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-06-21
  Extremely undervalued with even tangible book value of around 0.67.Hoping the new strategy comes through in due courseDividend of close over 3-4% can help till then.
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-06-17
  Dollar cost average on beaten down value stocks on the way down. More pain in store though.
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- SP SharmaSP Sharma
  ·2022-06-16
  Interesting and Insightful
  Soccer, Cricket Streaming Deals Bode Well for Sports Assets -- Market Insight
  Commentary by Adrià Calatayud Separate deals for the rights to stream the U.S. Major League
  Soccer, Cricket Streaming Deals Bode Well for Sports Assets -- Market Insight
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Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A strong US dollar, could prove very negative for earning of Companies (even though currently lot of negative sentiment is perceived to be priced in the market). So may need to further downgrade earnings estimate.","listText":"A strong US dollar, could prove very negative for earning of Companies (even though currently lot of negative sentiment is perceived to be priced in the market). So may need to further downgrade earnings estimate.","text":"A strong US dollar, could prove very negative for earning of Companies (even though currently lot of negative sentiment is perceived to be priced in the market). So may need to further downgrade earnings estimate.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912189928","repostId":"2272569015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2272569015","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664774782,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272569015?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 13:26","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Global Stocks Pin Hopes of Year-End Rally on Earnings Resilience","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272569015","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Some bad news is already priced in heading into results seasonExtreme investor pessimism could also ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Some bad news is already priced in heading into results season</li><li>Extreme investor pessimism could also spark a contrarian rally</li></ul><p>Investors are primed for any bit of good news to help them forget a brutal quarter for stocks that took this year’s value destruction to $24 trillion. A resilient corporate earnings season might give them that.</p><p>The MSCI All-Country World Index just wrapped up its third straight quarter of declines, the first time that’s happened since the global financial crisis in 2008.</p><p>The 7% drop came as investors grappled with persistently high inflation, a surging dollar and jumbo interest-rate hikes across the world that threaten to choke economic growth. Alongside that, analysts have slashed profit estimates, and a chorus of US and European companies -- including car giant Ford Motor Co. -- has issued early warnings about third-quarter results.</p><p>But one view is that this could set firms a lower bar to clear, and fuel a much-needed recovery in stocks that are currently at levels last seen nearly two years ago.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dc27d896dfbdd6ddf03104eaff2e691\" tg-width=\"729\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>“Investors have to ask themselves how much of the bad news has already been priced in,” said Ron Saba, senior portfolio manager at Horizon Investments LLC. “Given extreme pessimism combined with reasonable valuations, the fourth quarter could give investors an opportunity to claw back some of their losses.”</p><p>History is an imperfect guide, but past stock performance bodes well for the quarter. The S&amp;P 500 gained an average 4.1% in the final quarter during the past 20 years, while the MSCI has posted a fourth-quarter decline only three times over that period.</p><p>That’s not to say companies will get through the season with glowing report cards. There’s still plenty of hurdles that could cement 2022’s reputation as a year to forget.</p><p>For one, the era of higher costs is making it difficult to defend profitability. Firms also face tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and others as central banks keep a laser focus on taming inflation. On top of that, there’s the war in Ukraine, a severe energy crisis in Europe, and economically damaging Covid restrictions in China.</p><p>Dollar Effect</p><p>US companies with a large international exposure are at risk from a stronger dollar, as underscored by Nike Inc.’s disappointing earnings report on Thursday.</p><p>European and UK importers, on the other hand, are dealing with much weaker currencies. UK conglomerate Associated British Foods Plc and Swedish fashion retailer Hennes &amp; Mauritz AB both blamed the greenback for a bleaker profit outlook.</p><p>But the scale of recent analyst downgrades, as well as the market reaction to the early announcers, suggest that “some disappointments are already expected and possibly even priced in to some extent,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA.</p><p>FedEx Corp.’s withdrawal of its full-year guidance last month sparked the biggest selloff in its shares in more than four decades. Used-car dealer CarMax Inc. sank 25% after a glum quarterly report.</p><p>A Citigroup Inc. index shows US earnings downgrades have consistently outnumbered upgrades since early June, while global 12-month forward earnings have been revised down every month in the last quarter. Both the S&amp;P 500 and Stoxx 600 are in bear markets -- defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a26a873f70b1f88972810e33e3c24d\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The big question in the lead-up to the next earnings season is whether this will be enough. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc. have warned that estimates are still too high and that “we’re going to see pretty substantial reductions for 2023.”</p><p>Yet, others see reason to believe earnings can hold up for a while longer.</p><p>“Just looking at the resilience of the US economy, there’s little to suggest that earnings would be struggling at this stage,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “We’re looking out for the guidance, mentions of margin concerns, wage costs, etc. but we wouldn’t expect that to show through at least until about the first quarter of next year.”</p><p>Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to have risen 2.9% in the quarter, helped mainly by the energy sector. Gina Martin Adams, BI chief equity strategist, said the absence of “economic excesses” -- such as the indebtedness seen before the 2008 recession -- could insulate US demand from a severe decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24c15f14f70c8ec2cf41e50532849ae8\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>And while European importers are smarting from a weaker euro, exporters are benefiting. French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi said it expects a positive currency impact of about 10% in the quarter.</p><p>“Health care is the best sector in Europe when the dollar is rising,” said Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale SA. “A very simple trade but it always works.”</p><p>Even Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson -- a stalwart equity bear -- said US stocks are in the “final stages” of a bear market and could stage a rally near term. True to form, however, he expects the selloff to resume thereafter.</p><p>The decidedly negative investor mood could also prove to be a contrarian indicator of a short-term bounce for stocks.</p><p>Sanford C. Bernstein strategists say their custom sentiment gauge has triggered a buy signal, meaning a “bear market rally is very possible.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec909da0108831a62562e40a240e7ef\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Some technical levels suggest markets are lining up for a recovery into the end of the year. The relative strength indexes for the S&amp;P 500 and the Stoxx 600 are at “oversold” levels. That’s marked a short-term bottom in the past.</p><p>“We have historically terrible sentiment, stocks are looking notably cheap, the VIX is spiking and the market is being indiscriminately sold,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs. Combined with seasonal tailwinds, all those factors “could lead to a year-end rally,” she said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Stocks Pin Hopes of Year-End Rally on Earnings Resilience</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Stocks Pin Hopes of Year-End Rally on Earnings Resilience\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 13:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-02/global-stocks-pin-hopes-of-year-end-rally-on-earnings-resilience><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Some bad news is already priced in heading into results seasonExtreme investor pessimism could also spark a contrarian rallyInvestors are primed for any bit of good news to help them forget a brutal ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-02/global-stocks-pin-hopes-of-year-end-rally-on-earnings-resilience\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-02/global-stocks-pin-hopes-of-year-end-rally-on-earnings-resilience","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272569015","content_text":"Some bad news is already priced in heading into results seasonExtreme investor pessimism could also spark a contrarian rallyInvestors are primed for any bit of good news to help them forget a brutal quarter for stocks that took this year’s value destruction to $24 trillion. A resilient corporate earnings season might give them that.The MSCI All-Country World Index just wrapped up its third straight quarter of declines, the first time that’s happened since the global financial crisis in 2008.The 7% drop came as investors grappled with persistently high inflation, a surging dollar and jumbo interest-rate hikes across the world that threaten to choke economic growth. Alongside that, analysts have slashed profit estimates, and a chorus of US and European companies -- including car giant Ford Motor Co. -- has issued early warnings about third-quarter results.But one view is that this could set firms a lower bar to clear, and fuel a much-needed recovery in stocks that are currently at levels last seen nearly two years ago.“Investors have to ask themselves how much of the bad news has already been priced in,” said Ron Saba, senior portfolio manager at Horizon Investments LLC. “Given extreme pessimism combined with reasonable valuations, the fourth quarter could give investors an opportunity to claw back some of their losses.”History is an imperfect guide, but past stock performance bodes well for the quarter. The S&P 500 gained an average 4.1% in the final quarter during the past 20 years, while the MSCI has posted a fourth-quarter decline only three times over that period.That’s not to say companies will get through the season with glowing report cards. There’s still plenty of hurdles that could cement 2022’s reputation as a year to forget.For one, the era of higher costs is making it difficult to defend profitability. Firms also face tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and others as central banks keep a laser focus on taming inflation. On top of that, there’s the war in Ukraine, a severe energy crisis in Europe, and economically damaging Covid restrictions in China.Dollar EffectUS companies with a large international exposure are at risk from a stronger dollar, as underscored by Nike Inc.’s disappointing earnings report on Thursday.European and UK importers, on the other hand, are dealing with much weaker currencies. UK conglomerate Associated British Foods Plc and Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB both blamed the greenback for a bleaker profit outlook.But the scale of recent analyst downgrades, as well as the market reaction to the early announcers, suggest that “some disappointments are already expected and possibly even priced in to some extent,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA.FedEx Corp.’s withdrawal of its full-year guidance last month sparked the biggest selloff in its shares in more than four decades. Used-car dealer CarMax Inc. sank 25% after a glum quarterly report.A Citigroup Inc. index shows US earnings downgrades have consistently outnumbered upgrades since early June, while global 12-month forward earnings have been revised down every month in the last quarter. Both the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 are in bear markets -- defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent highs.The big question in the lead-up to the next earnings season is whether this will be enough. Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc. have warned that estimates are still too high and that “we’re going to see pretty substantial reductions for 2023.”Yet, others see reason to believe earnings can hold up for a while longer.“Just looking at the resilience of the US economy, there’s little to suggest that earnings would be struggling at this stage,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “We’re looking out for the guidance, mentions of margin concerns, wage costs, etc. but we wouldn’t expect that to show through at least until about the first quarter of next year.”Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to have risen 2.9% in the quarter, helped mainly by the energy sector. Gina Martin Adams, BI chief equity strategist, said the absence of “economic excesses” -- such as the indebtedness seen before the 2008 recession -- could insulate US demand from a severe decline.And while European importers are smarting from a weaker euro, exporters are benefiting. French pharmaceutical giant Sanofi said it expects a positive currency impact of about 10% in the quarter.“Health care is the best sector in Europe when the dollar is rising,” said Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale SA. “A very simple trade but it always works.”Even Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson -- a stalwart equity bear -- said US stocks are in the “final stages” of a bear market and could stage a rally near term. True to form, however, he expects the selloff to resume thereafter.The decidedly negative investor mood could also prove to be a contrarian indicator of a short-term bounce for stocks.Sanford C. Bernstein strategists say their custom sentiment gauge has triggered a buy signal, meaning a “bear market rally is very possible.”Some technical levels suggest markets are lining up for a recovery into the end of the year. The relative strength indexes for the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600 are at “oversold” levels. That’s marked a short-term bottom in the past.“We have historically terrible sentiment, stocks are looking notably cheap, the VIX is spiking and the market is being indiscriminately sold,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs. Combined with seasonal tailwinds, all those factors “could lead to a year-end rally,” she said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910132338,"gmtCreate":1663572740325,"gmtModify":1676537293298,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good insights. Thanks for sharing.","listText":"Good insights. Thanks for sharing.","text":"Good insights. Thanks for sharing.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910132338","repostId":"1177047620","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177047620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663570508,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177047620?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500: There Will Be Blood","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177047620","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summe","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.</li><li>Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again.</li><li>Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed likely has to do much more tightening.</li><li>Many stocks are still expensive, and valuations remain relatively high.</li><li>The ultimate bottom for the S&amp;P 500 may come at 3,000 or lower. I am hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500/SPX (SP500) hit a low of around 3,640 in mid-June, roughly a 25% drop from the top. Then, we saw a significant counter-trend rally into mid-August. However, despite the late summer stock market optimism, it&#39;s doubtful that the bear market is over. Recent inflation numbers illustrate that the economic climate remains highly challenging, and the Fed needs to do more. Unfortunately, interest rates are moving higher, and stocks will probably continue dropping.</p><p>Moreover, we haven&#39;t seen many of the hallmark signs of a long-term bottom. There should be more blood in the streets, and the ultimate bear market bottom could arrive at around 3,000 in the S&amp;P 500 in a base case outcome. I&#39;m capitalizing on the volatility by hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.</p><p>The Technical Image - Very Bearish Now</p><p><b>SPX 1-Year Chart</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a0e3641f8acc8cb2a23a7d95ff08fd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SPX(StockCharts.com )</p><p>The S&amp;P 500&#39;s bear market began right around the start of 2022. Since the bearish trend began, we&#39;ve seen a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent high occurred in mid-August when I put out a near-term top alert. Now, things are becoming more bearish. After the recent high, the market attempted to rebound but got smacked down by Jerome Powell&#39;s Jackson Hole remarks. More recently, the market tried to muster another rally, but the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers brought a quick end to that attempt.</p><p>Now, we&#39;re looking at an increasingly bearish technical image as the SPX is putting in a pessimistic head and shoulders pattern and is on the verge of busting through critical 3,900 support. Once below this level, the S&amp;P 500 should at least retest the prior low around 3,700-3,600. However, a likelier scenario is that the S&amp;P will make a lower low, dropping the SPX down into the 3,400-3,000 range next.</p><h2>What Do Jackson Hole And Inflation Have In Common?</h2><p>At Jackson Hole, we learned just how intent the Fed is on battling inflation and how bearish this phenomenon is for the stock market. I wrote about the Fed&#39;s bearish symposium several weeks ago. The key takeaway from Chair Powell&#39;s speech is that inflation is much more persistent and challenging to deal with than previously expected. The Fed must do much more to lower inflation. The dynamic of high-interest rates, slower growth, and a worsening labor market will bring substantial pain to households and businesses.</p><p>Now, Let&#39;s Look At Inflation</p><p><b>CPI Inflation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e415ae81767865727859c61ace2822d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CPI inflation(TradingEconomics.com )</p><p>While inflation has decreased from the 9.1% reading, it remains remarkably high. Inflation is running hotter than we&#39;ve seen in about 40 years now. The primary issue is that the Fed has been raising interest rates and implementing other tightening measures like QT, but we&#39;re seeing a minimal effect on inflation. Therefore, the Fed needs to do more. However, more tightening will further constrict economic growth and decrease consumer confidence. Additionally, higher inflation, lower growth, and worsening spending negatively impact corporate profits and should lead to more pain as we advance.</p><h2>Don&#39;t Fight The Fed</h2><p>Wise people have told me, &#34;you don&#39;t fight the Fed.&#34; You don&#39;t want to fight the Fed when the central bank is easing. We saw ultra-loose monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, and stocks did great for much of that time. However, we are in a completely different economic environment now. As the Fed pulls liquidity out of markets, the cost of borrowing increases, growth slows, sentiment worsens, and risk assets deflate. Furthermore, we&#39;ve underestimated the severity of the inflation problem and the Fed&#39;s commitment to making it &#34;go away.&#34;</p><p><b>Rate Probabilities</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e5b344a6418c8597ba3e52b0570b80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Fed Watch(CMEGroup.com )</p><p>Just one month ago, the market expected a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. There is about a 25% probability that we may see a 100 basis point move. Whether we see a 75 basis point hike or a full 1% increase next week is not that relevant. The fact is that the Fed is intent on increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. Unfortunately, the benchmark will be above 3% after next week&#39;s meeting. With rates at such elevated levels, economic growth will weaken further, and there is no telling when the inflation problem may end.</p><h2>Uncertainty Ahead For Stocks</h2><p>There is increased uncertainty surrounding inflation, growth, Fed tightening, the consumer, recession, corporate earnings, and much more. Typically, I would say that the stock market will climb the wall of worry, but this wall of worry may be too high to climb.</p><p>One of the most troubling factors is that we don&#39;t know how deep the downturn will cut into corporate results. We already see declining revenues, worsening margins, and fewer profits at major corporations. However, these declines could continue, and future downward earnings revisions could persist. Additionally, valuations remain relatively high, and this dynamic could mean lower stock prices before this bear market gets sorted out.</p><h2>The Valuation Dynamic</h2><p><b>The Shiller P/E Ratio</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32d6272d7dbe21608d8468cf653f5ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shiller P/E ratio(multpl.com)</p><p>We see the Shiller P/E coming down lately, but the drop has just begun. We can see that once the Shiller P/E drops, it rarely stops until a relatively low has been achieved. We should see the CAPE P/E ratio decline as the economy weakens, earnings decrease, and valuations come down. A reasonably conservative target could be a Shiller P/E ratio of approximately 20. While the historical mean is only 17, the market has become accustomed to higher P/E ratio valuations in recent years. Therefore, we may see increased buy interest around the 20 level, if the SPX doesn&#39;t overshoot to the downside. A decline to a 20 Shiller P/E ratio would equate to an approximately 28% drop from current levels, roughly coinciding with the 2,800 level in the S&amp;P 500. Therefore, my ultimate bottom in the S&amp;P 500 target remains at 3,000. However, the market may overshoot lower into the 2,800-2,400 range in a bearish case outcome.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500: There Will Be Blood</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500: There Will Be Blood\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541687-sp-500-there-will-be-blood><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again.Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541687-sp-500-there-will-be-blood\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541687-sp-500-there-will-be-blood","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177047620","content_text":"SummaryThe S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again.Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again.Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed likely has to do much more tightening.Many stocks are still expensive, and valuations remain relatively high.The ultimate bottom for the S&P 500 may come at 3,000 or lower. I am hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.The S&P 500/SPX (SP500) hit a low of around 3,640 in mid-June, roughly a 25% drop from the top. Then, we saw a significant counter-trend rally into mid-August. However, despite the late summer stock market optimism, it's doubtful that the bear market is over. Recent inflation numbers illustrate that the economic climate remains highly challenging, and the Fed needs to do more. Unfortunately, interest rates are moving higher, and stocks will probably continue dropping.Moreover, we haven't seen many of the hallmark signs of a long-term bottom. There should be more blood in the streets, and the ultimate bear market bottom could arrive at around 3,000 in the S&P 500 in a base case outcome. I'm capitalizing on the volatility by hedging and buying high-quality stocks on big dips.The Technical Image - Very Bearish NowSPX 1-Year ChartSPX(StockCharts.com )The S&P 500's bear market began right around the start of 2022. Since the bearish trend began, we've seen a series of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent high occurred in mid-August when I put out a near-term top alert. Now, things are becoming more bearish. After the recent high, the market attempted to rebound but got smacked down by Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole remarks. More recently, the market tried to muster another rally, but the higher-than-anticipated inflation numbers brought a quick end to that attempt.Now, we're looking at an increasingly bearish technical image as the SPX is putting in a pessimistic head and shoulders pattern and is on the verge of busting through critical 3,900 support. Once below this level, the S&P 500 should at least retest the prior low around 3,700-3,600. However, a likelier scenario is that the S&P will make a lower low, dropping the SPX down into the 3,400-3,000 range next.What Do Jackson Hole And Inflation Have In Common?At Jackson Hole, we learned just how intent the Fed is on battling inflation and how bearish this phenomenon is for the stock market. I wrote about the Fed's bearish symposium several weeks ago. The key takeaway from Chair Powell's speech is that inflation is much more persistent and challenging to deal with than previously expected. The Fed must do much more to lower inflation. The dynamic of high-interest rates, slower growth, and a worsening labor market will bring substantial pain to households and businesses.Now, Let's Look At InflationCPI InflationCPI inflation(TradingEconomics.com )While inflation has decreased from the 9.1% reading, it remains remarkably high. Inflation is running hotter than we've seen in about 40 years now. The primary issue is that the Fed has been raising interest rates and implementing other tightening measures like QT, but we're seeing a minimal effect on inflation. Therefore, the Fed needs to do more. However, more tightening will further constrict economic growth and decrease consumer confidence. Additionally, higher inflation, lower growth, and worsening spending negatively impact corporate profits and should lead to more pain as we advance.Don't Fight The FedWise people have told me, \"you don't fight the Fed.\" You don't want to fight the Fed when the central bank is easing. We saw ultra-loose monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, and stocks did great for much of that time. However, we are in a completely different economic environment now. As the Fed pulls liquidity out of markets, the cost of borrowing increases, growth slows, sentiment worsens, and risk assets deflate. Furthermore, we've underestimated the severity of the inflation problem and the Fed's commitment to making it \"go away.\"Rate ProbabilitiesFed Watch(CMEGroup.com )Just one month ago, the market expected a 50 basis point hike at the upcoming Fed meeting. There is about a 25% probability that we may see a 100 basis point move. Whether we see a 75 basis point hike or a full 1% increase next week is not that relevant. The fact is that the Fed is intent on increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. Unfortunately, the benchmark will be above 3% after next week's meeting. With rates at such elevated levels, economic growth will weaken further, and there is no telling when the inflation problem may end.Uncertainty Ahead For StocksThere is increased uncertainty surrounding inflation, growth, Fed tightening, the consumer, recession, corporate earnings, and much more. Typically, I would say that the stock market will climb the wall of worry, but this wall of worry may be too high to climb.One of the most troubling factors is that we don't know how deep the downturn will cut into corporate results. We already see declining revenues, worsening margins, and fewer profits at major corporations. However, these declines could continue, and future downward earnings revisions could persist. Additionally, valuations remain relatively high, and this dynamic could mean lower stock prices before this bear market gets sorted out.The Valuation DynamicThe Shiller P/E RatioShiller P/E ratio(multpl.com)We see the Shiller P/E coming down lately, but the drop has just begun. We can see that once the Shiller P/E drops, it rarely stops until a relatively low has been achieved. We should see the CAPE P/E ratio decline as the economy weakens, earnings decrease, and valuations come down. A reasonably conservative target could be a Shiller P/E ratio of approximately 20. While the historical mean is only 17, the market has become accustomed to higher P/E ratio valuations in recent years. Therefore, we may see increased buy interest around the 20 level, if the SPX doesn't overshoot to the downside. A decline to a 20 Shiller P/E ratio would equate to an approximately 28% drop from current levels, roughly coinciding with the 2,800 level in the S&P 500. Therefore, my ultimate bottom in the S&P 500 target remains at 3,000. However, the market may overshoot lower into the 2,800-2,400 range in a bearish case outcome.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938551775,"gmtCreate":1662640345097,"gmtModify":1676537107122,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938551775","repostId":"1135827542","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9902934066,"gmtCreate":1659624741857,"gmtModify":1705996326185,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9902934066","repostId":"2256993259","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2256993259","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1659627509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2256993259?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-04 23:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street's \"Fear Gauge\" in Limbo As Big Investors Keep Shunning Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2256993259","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s most closely watched gauge of market anxiety shows expectations of choppy ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s most closely watched gauge of market anxiety shows expectations of choppy trading ahead despite a recent snapback in U.S. stocks, though institutional investors&#39; low exposure to equities may help curb gyrations.</p><p>The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based indicator that reflects demand for protection against drops in the stock market, recently stood at 23, following a sharp rally in stocks that has taken the S&amp;P 500 index up 12% from its mid-June low on expectations that the Federal Reserve may be less hawkish than anticipated in its fight against inflation.</p><p>VIX readings above 20 are generally associated with an elevated sense of investor anxiety about the near-term outlook for stocks, while readings north of 30 or 35 point to acute fear.</p><p>The VIX is well above its long-term median of 17.7, signaling continued unease about the longer-term outlook for stocks. Still, it is down from its year high of almost 40 and has oscillated between 20 and 30 for six weeks, its longest time within that 10-point range in a year-and-a-half.</p><p>Meanwhile, the VVIX index - a gauge of expected swings in the fear index, slumped to a three-year low earlier this week, signaling investors do not expect sharp swings in either direction from the VIX.</p><p>&#34;There is just less of a concern of an outlier kind of move in the market,&#34; said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.</p><p>The lowered expectations for extreme volatility come as investors assess whether stocks can sustain a rally in which the S&amp;P 500 in July notched its best one-month percentage gain since November 2020. The July rally followed stocks&#39; worst first half of the year since 1970.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Tuesday pushed back on expectations of a so-called dovish pivot from the Fed, saying that the central bank’s fight against inflation was &#34;nowhere near&#34; done, and data on U.S. employment on Friday and consumer prices next week could bolster the case for Fed hawkishness.</p><p>Meanwhile, several Wall Street banks have cast a skeptical eye on the recent rebound in stocks and warned of more downside ahead.</p><p>&#34;We view this as a bear market rally,&#34; wrote Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at BofA Global Research in a report, noting that such rebounds have occurred an average of 1.5 times per bear market since 1929. The bank has a year-end target of 3,600 on the S&amp;P 500, about 14% below current levels.</p><h3>LOW EXPOSURE</h3><p>One factor that could help dampen market volatility in coming months is limited exposure to stocks among institutional investors, who earlier this year raced to cut their stock allocations as the Fed ramped up expectations that it will fight inflation with market-bruising interest rate hikes.</p><p>Despite the recent bounce, big investors&#39; exposure to stocks remains low. Equity positioning for both discretionary and systematic investors remains in the 12th percentile of its range since January 2010, according to a July 29 note by Deutsche Bank analysts.</p><p>&#34;Institutional positioning in equities is at the low end of its historical range,&#34; said Anand Omprakash, head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at Elevation Securities. &#34;You have a situation where the catalyst for an explosive equity crash is not as prevalent as it might have been in the past.&#34;</p><p>Lighter positioning means investors are not exhibiting the same rush to load up on options insurance against a downside move in stocks, a factor that can moderate the VIX&#39;s rise even if stocks come in for another bout of weakness.</p><p>The 10-day average daily trading volume in VIX options has slipped to about 360,000 contracts, the lowest since early January, according to a Reuters analysis.</p><p>Lighter allocations to equities may also take the edge off potential selloffs, said Max Grinacoff, U.S. equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas. His firm has a year-end target of 4,400 on the S&amp;P 500 - some 7% above current levels.</p><p>&#34;Because of how clean positioning has become through the year ... you are not having the impact from everyone running for the exit at once,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's \"Fear Gauge\" in Limbo As Big Investors Keep Shunning Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's \"Fear Gauge\" in Limbo As Big Investors Keep Shunning Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-04 23:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s most closely watched gauge of market anxiety shows expectations of choppy trading ahead despite a recent snapback in U.S. stocks, though institutional investors&#39; low exposure to equities may help curb gyrations.</p><p>The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based indicator that reflects demand for protection against drops in the stock market, recently stood at 23, following a sharp rally in stocks that has taken the S&amp;P 500 index up 12% from its mid-June low on expectations that the Federal Reserve may be less hawkish than anticipated in its fight against inflation.</p><p>VIX readings above 20 are generally associated with an elevated sense of investor anxiety about the near-term outlook for stocks, while readings north of 30 or 35 point to acute fear.</p><p>The VIX is well above its long-term median of 17.7, signaling continued unease about the longer-term outlook for stocks. Still, it is down from its year high of almost 40 and has oscillated between 20 and 30 for six weeks, its longest time within that 10-point range in a year-and-a-half.</p><p>Meanwhile, the VVIX index - a gauge of expected swings in the fear index, slumped to a three-year low earlier this week, signaling investors do not expect sharp swings in either direction from the VIX.</p><p>&#34;There is just less of a concern of an outlier kind of move in the market,&#34; said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.</p><p>The lowered expectations for extreme volatility come as investors assess whether stocks can sustain a rally in which the S&amp;P 500 in July notched its best one-month percentage gain since November 2020. The July rally followed stocks&#39; worst first half of the year since 1970.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Tuesday pushed back on expectations of a so-called dovish pivot from the Fed, saying that the central bank’s fight against inflation was &#34;nowhere near&#34; done, and data on U.S. employment on Friday and consumer prices next week could bolster the case for Fed hawkishness.</p><p>Meanwhile, several Wall Street banks have cast a skeptical eye on the recent rebound in stocks and warned of more downside ahead.</p><p>&#34;We view this as a bear market rally,&#34; wrote Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at BofA Global Research in a report, noting that such rebounds have occurred an average of 1.5 times per bear market since 1929. The bank has a year-end target of 3,600 on the S&amp;P 500, about 14% below current levels.</p><h3>LOW EXPOSURE</h3><p>One factor that could help dampen market volatility in coming months is limited exposure to stocks among institutional investors, who earlier this year raced to cut their stock allocations as the Fed ramped up expectations that it will fight inflation with market-bruising interest rate hikes.</p><p>Despite the recent bounce, big investors&#39; exposure to stocks remains low. Equity positioning for both discretionary and systematic investors remains in the 12th percentile of its range since January 2010, according to a July 29 note by Deutsche Bank analysts.</p><p>&#34;Institutional positioning in equities is at the low end of its historical range,&#34; said Anand Omprakash, head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at Elevation Securities. &#34;You have a situation where the catalyst for an explosive equity crash is not as prevalent as it might have been in the past.&#34;</p><p>Lighter positioning means investors are not exhibiting the same rush to load up on options insurance against a downside move in stocks, a factor that can moderate the VIX&#39;s rise even if stocks come in for another bout of weakness.</p><p>The 10-day average daily trading volume in VIX options has slipped to about 360,000 contracts, the lowest since early January, according to a Reuters analysis.</p><p>Lighter allocations to equities may also take the edge off potential selloffs, said Max Grinacoff, U.S. equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas. His firm has a year-end target of 4,400 on the S&amp;P 500 - some 7% above current levels.</p><p>&#34;Because of how clean positioning has become through the year ... you are not having the impact from everyone running for the exit at once,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2256993259","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s most closely watched gauge of market anxiety shows expectations of choppy trading ahead despite a recent snapback in U.S. stocks, though institutional investors' low exposure to equities may help curb gyrations.The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based indicator that reflects demand for protection against drops in the stock market, recently stood at 23, following a sharp rally in stocks that has taken the S&P 500 index up 12% from its mid-June low on expectations that the Federal Reserve may be less hawkish than anticipated in its fight against inflation.VIX readings above 20 are generally associated with an elevated sense of investor anxiety about the near-term outlook for stocks, while readings north of 30 or 35 point to acute fear.The VIX is well above its long-term median of 17.7, signaling continued unease about the longer-term outlook for stocks. Still, it is down from its year high of almost 40 and has oscillated between 20 and 30 for six weeks, its longest time within that 10-point range in a year-and-a-half.Meanwhile, the VVIX index - a gauge of expected swings in the fear index, slumped to a three-year low earlier this week, signaling investors do not expect sharp swings in either direction from the VIX.\"There is just less of a concern of an outlier kind of move in the market,\" said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.The lowered expectations for extreme volatility come as investors assess whether stocks can sustain a rally in which the S&P 500 in July notched its best one-month percentage gain since November 2020. The July rally followed stocks' worst first half of the year since 1970.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Tuesday pushed back on expectations of a so-called dovish pivot from the Fed, saying that the central bank’s fight against inflation was \"nowhere near\" done, and data on U.S. employment on Friday and consumer prices next week could bolster the case for Fed hawkishness.Meanwhile, several Wall Street banks have cast a skeptical eye on the recent rebound in stocks and warned of more downside ahead.\"We view this as a bear market rally,\" wrote Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at BofA Global Research in a report, noting that such rebounds have occurred an average of 1.5 times per bear market since 1929. The bank has a year-end target of 3,600 on the S&P 500, about 14% below current levels.LOW EXPOSUREOne factor that could help dampen market volatility in coming months is limited exposure to stocks among institutional investors, who earlier this year raced to cut their stock allocations as the Fed ramped up expectations that it will fight inflation with market-bruising interest rate hikes.Despite the recent bounce, big investors' exposure to stocks remains low. Equity positioning for both discretionary and systematic investors remains in the 12th percentile of its range since January 2010, according to a July 29 note by Deutsche Bank analysts.\"Institutional positioning in equities is at the low end of its historical range,\" said Anand Omprakash, head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at Elevation Securities. \"You have a situation where the catalyst for an explosive equity crash is not as prevalent as it might have been in the past.\"Lighter positioning means investors are not exhibiting the same rush to load up on options insurance against a downside move in stocks, a factor that can moderate the VIX's rise even if stocks come in for another bout of weakness.The 10-day average daily trading volume in VIX options has slipped to about 360,000 contracts, the lowest since early January, according to a Reuters analysis.Lighter allocations to equities may also take the edge off potential selloffs, said Max Grinacoff, U.S. equity derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas. His firm has a year-end target of 4,400 on the S&P 500 - some 7% above current levels.\"Because of how clean positioning has become through the year ... you are not having the impact from everyone running for the exit at once,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9908573699,"gmtCreate":1659407939711,"gmtModify":1705980053219,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9908573699","repostId":"1142849270","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041019440,"gmtCreate":1655978495480,"gmtModify":1676535744178,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TAK\">$Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd(TAK)$</a>Any idea when is the Next&nbsp;Dividend payout date for Takeda?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TAK\">$Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd(TAK)$</a>Any idea when is the Next&nbsp;Dividend payout date for Takeda?&nbsp;","text":"$Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd(TAK)$Any idea when is the Next Dividend payout date for Takeda?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041019440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9049543563,"gmtCreate":1655820541652,"gmtModify":1676535711347,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Extremely undervalued with even tangible book value of around 0.67.Hoping the new strategy comes through in due courseDividend of close over 3-4% can help till then.","listText":"Extremely undervalued with even tangible book value of around 0.67.Hoping the new strategy comes through in due courseDividend of close over 3-4% can help till then.","text":"Extremely undervalued with even tangible book value of around 0.67.Hoping the new strategy comes through in due courseDividend of close over 3-4% can help till then.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9049543563","repostId":"2244310166","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057087984,"gmtCreate":1655436570848,"gmtModify":1676535639731,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dollar cost average on beaten down value stocks on the way down. More pain in store though.&nbsp;","listText":"Dollar cost average on beaten down value stocks on the way down. More pain in store though.&nbsp;","text":"Dollar cost average on beaten down value stocks on the way down. More pain in store though.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057087984","repostId":"2244153409","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9054106341,"gmtCreate":1655348718683,"gmtModify":1676535620245,"author":{"id":"4098160558341800","authorId":"4098160558341800","name":"SP Sharma","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4098160558341800","authorIdStr":"4098160558341800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting and Insightful","listText":"Interesting and Insightful","text":"Interesting and Insightful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054106341","repostId":"2243491159","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243491159","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1655304900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2243491159?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Soccer, Cricket Streaming Deals Bode Well for Sports Assets -- Market Insight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243491159","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Commentary by Adrià Calatayud \n\n\n \n\n\n  Separate deals for the rights to stream the U.S. Major League","content":"<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  Commentary by Adrià Calatayud \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Separate deals for the rights to stream the U.S. Major League Soccer and cricket's Indian Premier League are a strong signal that sports are prized weapons in the streaming wars. The scramble for sports programming to attract streaming subscribers is likely to boost global listed sports assets, while potentially increasing costs for streaming services in future auctions. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Soccer clubs Manchester United Ltd., Juventus Football Club SpA, Borussia Dortmund GmbH, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFCJF\">AFC Ajax NV</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OQLGF\">Olympique Lyonnais Groupe</a> are all publicly listed, though the extent to which each individual club benefits from higher streaming fees will depend on the distribution set by the leagues. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSXMR\">Liberty Media Corp</a>. has separate tracking stocks for its interests in Formula One Group and the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball Club. Private-equity firms including Bridgepoint Group <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> has sports investments as well. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Meanwhile, streaming services, broadcasters and telecommunications groups could face an inflationary spiral to acquire or retain rights to air sporting events. Walt Disney Co. lost streaming rights to IPL cricket for the 2023-2027 period to rival Viacom18, a joint venture between <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global</a> and Reliance Industries Ltd. Disney's Star India television network will pay the equivalent of $3 billion to retain the TV rights, more than it paid for the combined broadcast and streaming package in the last auction in 2017, but was outbid by Viacom18 for the digital rights The auction generated $6.2 billion in total for the league's organizers, three times the amount reached in 2017. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Higher prices raise the bar for bidders to generate returns on their investment. BT Group PLC last month said its deal with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> Inc. to form a sports JV in the U.K. and Ireland was partly aimed at reducing its exposure to rights costs. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Market Insights are commentary that is independent of the news coverage by reporters at The Wall Street Journal. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Write to Adrià Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 15, 2022 10:55 ET (14:55 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Soccer, Cricket Streaming Deals Bode Well for Sports Assets -- Market Insight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoccer, Cricket Streaming Deals Bode Well for Sports Assets -- Market Insight\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-15 22:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n  Commentary by Adrià Calatayud \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Separate deals for the rights to stream the U.S. Major League Soccer and cricket's Indian Premier League are a strong signal that sports are prized weapons in the streaming wars. The scramble for sports programming to attract streaming subscribers is likely to boost global listed sports assets, while potentially increasing costs for streaming services in future auctions. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Soccer clubs Manchester United Ltd., Juventus Football Club SpA, Borussia Dortmund GmbH, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFCJF\">AFC Ajax NV</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OQLGF\">Olympique Lyonnais Groupe</a> are all publicly listed, though the extent to which each individual club benefits from higher streaming fees will depend on the distribution set by the leagues. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LSXMR\">Liberty Media Corp</a>. has separate tracking stocks for its interests in Formula One Group and the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball Club. Private-equity firms including Bridgepoint Group <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> has sports investments as well. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Meanwhile, streaming services, broadcasters and telecommunications groups could face an inflationary spiral to acquire or retain rights to air sporting events. Walt Disney Co. lost streaming rights to IPL cricket for the 2023-2027 period to rival Viacom18, a joint venture between <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PARA\">Paramount Global</a> and Reliance Industries Ltd. Disney's Star India television network will pay the equivalent of $3 billion to retain the TV rights, more than it paid for the combined broadcast and streaming package in the last auction in 2017, but was outbid by Viacom18 for the digital rights The auction generated $6.2 billion in total for the league's organizers, three times the amount reached in 2017. \n</p>\n<p>\n  Higher prices raise the bar for bidders to generate returns on their investment. BT Group PLC last month said its deal with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">Warner Bros. Discovery</a> Inc. to form a sports JV in the U.K. and Ireland was partly aimed at reducing its exposure to rights costs. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Market Insights are commentary that is independent of the news coverage by reporters at The Wall Street Journal. \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  Write to Adrià Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 15, 2022 10:55 ET (14:55 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243491159","content_text":"Commentary by Adrià Calatayud \n\n\n \n\n\n  Separate deals for the rights to stream the U.S. Major League Soccer and cricket's Indian Premier League are a strong signal that sports are prized weapons in the streaming wars. The scramble for sports programming to attract streaming subscribers is likely to boost global listed sports assets, while potentially increasing costs for streaming services in future auctions. \n\n\n  Soccer clubs Manchester United Ltd., Juventus Football Club SpA, Borussia Dortmund GmbH, AFC Ajax NV and Olympique Lyonnais Groupe are all publicly listed, though the extent to which each individual club benefits from higher streaming fees will depend on the distribution set by the leagues. Liberty Media Corp. has separate tracking stocks for its interests in Formula One Group and the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball Club. Private-equity firms including Bridgepoint Group PLC has sports investments as well. \n\n\n  Meanwhile, streaming services, broadcasters and telecommunications groups could face an inflationary spiral to acquire or retain rights to air sporting events. Walt Disney Co. lost streaming rights to IPL cricket for the 2023-2027 period to rival Viacom18, a joint venture between Paramount Global and Reliance Industries Ltd. Disney's Star India television network will pay the equivalent of $3 billion to retain the TV rights, more than it paid for the combined broadcast and streaming package in the last auction in 2017, but was outbid by Viacom18 for the digital rights The auction generated $6.2 billion in total for the league's organizers, three times the amount reached in 2017. \n\n\n  Higher prices raise the bar for bidders to generate returns on their investment. BT Group PLC last month said its deal with Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. to form a sports JV in the U.K. and Ireland was partly aimed at reducing its exposure to rights costs. \n\n\n \n\n\n  Market Insights are commentary that is independent of the news coverage by reporters at The Wall Street Journal. \n\n\n \n\n\n  Write to Adrià Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  June 15, 2022 10:55 ET (14:55 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}